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Wuhan virus -
After months of declining numbers, California has recorded a nearly 30% increase in coronavirus cases over the last week along with smaller rises in hospitalizations, causing some health officials to suspect that the state is headed into a new pandemic wave.
OBSERVATION - No word on lethality of this variant.
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Economy
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its index of national factory activity fell to a reading of 55.4 last month from 57.1 in March.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 12% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index rising to 57.6.
OBSERVATION - Near term economic data shows no signs of inflation and associated economic troubles turning anytime soon.
Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about weak economic growth in China, the world’s top oil importer, outweighed fears of potential supply stress from a potential European Union ban on Russian crude.
Brent crude futures fell 71 cents, or 0.6%, to $106.43 a barrel at 0801 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 70 cents, or 0.6%, to $103.99 a barrel.
OBSERVATION - Oil prices continue to be volatile, don’t expect prices to significantly drop any time soon.
After its latest rate-setting meeting ends Wednesday, the Fed will almost certainly announce that it’s raising its benchmark short-term interest rate by a half-percentage point — the sharpest rate hike since 2000. The Fed will likely carry out another half-point rate hike at its next meeting in June and possibly at the next one after that, in July. Economists foresee still further rate hikes in the months to follow.
OBSERVATION - half point (0.5%) increases have the potential to wreck any ‘easy landing’ of inflation and many continue to warn that is can cause a deep recession or even depression.
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Invasion of Illegals -
On CNN’s “The State of Our Union”, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told Dana Bash that since Sept 2021, DHS has been preparing to start handling and processing 18,000 illegal aliens per day – 540,000 a month – as soon as CDC Title 42 is lifted.
That comes to 3 million people by the November election. Roughly ten million anonymous people have poured into the country under Joe Biden. We could have 30 million by 2024. That’s the population of Texas.
April reportedly hit new records of intercepted Illegals and ‘got-aways’
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Things exploded last night with the ‘leak’ to Politico of a draft opinion reportedly written by Justice Alito that signals the U.S. Supreme Court is ready to overturn its decision in Roe v. Wade. The result was rapid (some say coordinated with the leak) mobilization of pro-abortion supporters (including LGBT and some Antifa elements) to the front of the Supreme Court. Pro life elements also arrived there. Barricades are up around the Supreme Court building, just minutes after reports from Politico report. There were some limited scuffles between opposing sides.
Vigils/protests are expected to continue and grow through today at the very least.
The disclosure of a draft ruling (98 pages) by the high court is unprecedented. Whoever leaked the alleged draft of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has committed the “original sin for judicial ethics,” said Jonathan Turley, criminal defense attorney and Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University. Turley said the leak represents “one of the greatest breaches of security in the history of the Court.” Turley noted that if Politico indeed obtained a true copy of the drafted opinion, “it is hard not to view this as a malicious act.” Alan Dershowitz has even come out expressing shock and anger on this release. The FBI reportedly begun an investigation.
OBSERVATION - This leak was almost certainly an act of deliberate sabotage.
1. Designed to inflame public emotions and promote pressure on the court.
2. Designed to mobilize democrat grass roots to try to reverse the democrat death spiral headed into the midterms. (this may backfire by mobilizing conservative elements as well), 189 days out.
3. Apply further pressure on congress to overturn the filibuster and general momentum to enlarge and pack the court with liberals.
Never has there been a leak like this from the USSC. The court is a tight operation and the leaker has already been zeroed in on - an aid to Justice Sotomayor - who’s had interactions with Politico in the past. It is apparent that leftists are now willing to destroy the institutional integrity of the USSC to maintain power.
BTW - This is the second leak - the first leak was Justice Briars retirement. Chief Justice Roberts has to come down hard to protect and restore the integrity of the USSC process.
Antifa has started callouts for nationwide protests against the potential over turning Roe v Wade.
Very high possibility of a spike in violence against pro-life leaders and organizations.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
The fillibuster war has suddenly been tossed onto the front burner.
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China -
US warns China it will be subject to sanctions if it sends weapons to Russia.
China, with over $3.2 trillion in international reserves, is working to reconfigure its asset portfolio to protect it from potential future U.S. sanctions. Chinese government officials met with bankers in an emergency meeting last week to discuss how the state might protect its assets should it face the same penalties Russia is facing over its invasion of Ukraine. According to the Financial Times, China’s central bank and finance ministry officials met with dozens of representatives of foreign and domestic banks, including financial giant HSBC. (FO)
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 69)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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All eyes on Moscow and the May 9th activities. The consensus it that putin will declare war against Ukraine - escalating it from a ‘special military operation’. This will also include a broad mobilization and conscription of the population. May 7th may be more important to Putin than the 9th. According to US intel officials- no specifics provided.
U.S. officials have confirmed that General Gerasimov ( chief of the general staff of the Russian military) did visit the front-lines in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian officials learned of the visit and launched a strike on one position that he visited, but it was too late (NYT).
A pro-Russian cyber group called Killnet targeted Romanian government websites and is considering other targets. A widespread distributed denial of service attack shut down Romanian government websites, including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Romania’s tax collection agency, and the Romanian Gendarmerie.
Logistics -
- Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 600 tanks since it began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Russian daily tank loss rate is now at the highest level of the war.
Economic Impacts -
- Finland has terminated a contract with Russia’s Rosatom to construct a third nuclear power plant . The deal is worth $7.8 billion
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.
RUMINT -
The Ukrainian government is claiming that they disrupted a Russian false flag operation to shoot down a passenger plane over Russia or Belarus using an illicitly-acquired US Stinger MANPADS
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
A senior US defense official describes the Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine as “anemic”, “Russia moves into an area in the Donbas region, claims victory, then withdraws.” Other observers have noted a definite slow down in the tempo of Russian attacks. Artillery attacks did continue, but at lower levels as well.
It is being noted that Ukraine has become increasingly proficient in downing Russian drones, using EW (jamming) methods.
Ukraine’s ombudswoman for human rights said Ukrainians came back with sepsis, severe wounds, amputated limbs, and toes due to frostbite. Russia is torturing Ukrainians at “filtration camps” after essentially kidnapping people by the thousands under the guise of humanitarian evacuations.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.
Russian army shelled Hlukhiv border community in Sumy region with mortars
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Russian troops shelled central Kharkiv, Pavlove Pole, Zolochiv , and Oleksiivka
Ukraine offensive in the area of Kharkiv moves forward with success as Ukraine’s military have pushed the Russian military about 40 km back from Kharkiv according to a Senior US Defense Official. This places Ukraine artillery within range of Russia’s main supply routes to Izyum.
On the southern end of this front, Russian troops continued to focus on completing the seizure of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian BTGs are reportedly being moved forward in these areas to facilitate operations and enable future operations to the southwest. The Ukrainian artillery strike on the Russian command post in Izyum appears to have disrupted Russian attacks staging from Izyum and likely those farther south.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian troops launched another ground assault attempt at Azovstal in Mariupol after hours of aerial bombardment. Only a handful of civilians have been allowed by Russia to evacuate the city and specifically, the Azovstal bunkers. No successful attacks launched northward to join those attack axis coming south from the Izyum region.
Crimea Front -
Generally, things have been relatively static in this area. Ukraine intelligence assess that Russians are trying to prevent Ukraine from capturing Kherson while at the same time trying to prepare to resume offensives toward Odesa and towards Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhia.
Reports that Ukrainian military hit Russian positions at Zmiiny (Snake) island using Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs. These TB 2 attacks reportedly have destroyed all the ADA and comms elements placed on the island by Russia and reportedly killed up to 44 Russian soldiers manning the equipment.
Two Russian Navy Project 03160 ‘Raptor’ patrol boats were also struck by Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs near Snake Island (others report that they were reconnoitered the Danube River delta ) and likely sunk.
OBSERVATION - These TB2 are becoming the gold standard. From Libya, to Syria to Azerbaijan/Armenia they have been the bane of Russia and Russian backed forces.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.
Russian Territory -
In Belgorod, Russia sirens and car alarms were going off after an explosions. RIA Novosti reports a loud “clap” in central Belgorod (a Russian euphemism for an explosion), similar to the sound of an explosion of medium strength. Later ADA missile launches were noted over Tavrovo and Nikolske, Belgorod
NOTICE - Many suspicious fires being reported across greater Russia. May or may not are linked to the Ukraine war but I’m listing them here for situation awareness-
- NASA’s FIRMS recently detected a large fire at a warehouse in the Bogorodskoye district of Moscow. The fire is reported to cover an area of 34,000 square meters, or 8.5 acres. The facility is reportedly leased by the “Prosveshchenie” publishing house (the company that makes most of Russia’s school textbooks) is very much on fire right now. Roughly 323k square feet of books.
- Smoke has been reported and photographed over Perm ammunition factory today. Perm is a traditional (over 200 years history) Russian defense industry stronghold, second only to Tula. The affected factory produces artillery ammunition, incl. MLRS rockets (but no more). The City of Perm is situated on the banks of the Kama River in the Ural Mountains a thousand miles east of Moscow.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces continue to be largely stalled along nearly all of the front with no apparent breakout pending. US officials call it ‘anemic’.
Russian efforts in the east appear to have been disrupted by the missile strike in Izyum in combination with Ukrane’s dynamic mobile defense is largely stalled, after several weeks of this new ‘offensive’. Coordination between the different commands continue to be very poor and even the application of more strategic operations, such air/sea launched cruse missiles, appear to be disjointed and poorly sustained. I don’t expect them to get their act together in the near term.
Ukraine offensive pushing Russian forces away from Khariv is setting the stage for more significant interdiction of Russian supplies to the Izyum region and further threaten a cross border strike(s) towards Belgorod. Russia is being forced to deal with this offensive and it is bleeding off forces necessary for the northern portion of the Donbas offensive.
I agree with numerous other analysts/observers - Russia doesn’t have the forces necessary to capture the rest of the Donbas. It appears that Russia is trying to mitigate this by preparing to assimilate terrain captured into Russia proper - a declaration likely on May 9th.
Transnistria soap opera continues with a lot of conflicting information. There is a degree of credibility from Ukrainian intelligence based on their accurate prognostications to date that Russia is trying to figure out how to open a new front to permit operations against Odesa to proceed. Very high gamble operation.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Ukrainian intelligence reports activity at the Tiraspol airfield. Sources say that Russia plans to land Il-76 transport aircrafts and helicopters in Transnistria flying from the occupied Crimea. At the same time in Chisinau, Russia is planning to organize riots and protests. However, according to a senior U.S. defense official the U.S. has NO indications that Russia is planning an imminent invasion of Moldova
OBSERVATION - For Russia to accomplish this airlift, it would be forced to transit over Ukraine territory loaded with ADA assets. The Odessa region is also heavily covered by US/NATO airborne intelligence collectors which may likely provide early warning and vectors to the incoming aircraft. It has the potential to turn into a turkey shoot.
Ukraine border checkpoint with Transnistria is been blocked now by large concrete blocks. Basically closed.
The Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is urging its Citizens to leave the Moldovan Breakaway Region of Transnistria as soon as possible and to avoid all unnecessary travel to Moldova.
PROPAGANDA / RED FLAG ALERT - Russian media outlets claim that another attack was foiled in Transnistria, Moldova, claiming that a drone with explosives, which would have been used to target radio and TV center, was neutralized.
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Europe / NATO General -
Emmanuel Macron has a call scheduled today with Putin. It will be the first call between the two since March 29th. Source: Elysée.
NATO begins its largest Special Operations Forces exercise “to date.” Includes Finland, Sweden, Georgia. Trojan Footprint 22 kicks off today with over 3,300 participants from 30 nations. This is the largest SOF exercise to date. This exercise is regularly scheduled but takes greater significance due to the Ukraine war.
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Israel -
Russian Foreign Ministry says that Israel “supports the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv” and that Lapid saying ““The Jews did not murder themselves in the Holocaust” is “anti-historical.” The Russian foreign minister accused Israel on Tuesday of supporting neo-Nazis in Ukraine, Israeli FM Yair Lapid demands an apology from Lavrov over his comments about Jews.
OBSERVATION - Israel has been trying to remain neutral in respects to the Ukraine war, this action by Russia may push it to support Ukraine.
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Iran -
Biden Admin Won’t Block $10 Billion for Russian Nuclear Work in Iran, Blinken Says - Even as Russia wages war crimes, Biden admin will let it cash in to build up Iran’s nuclear sites
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Syria -
Turkey is drafting plans to return one million Syrian refugees to northern Syria, Erdogan said, under plans to build housing and provide services in the Northern Syria
OBSERVATION - These refugees have been an economic and political drain of Turkey.
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Turkey -
See Syria above
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Black Swans -
France has culled a record 16 million chickens, ducks and other poultry since November 2021 in one of the most severe bird flu outbreaks in years. In 2021, the country saw nearly 500 outbreaks and culled 3.5 million animals, mostly ducks.
OBSERVATION - Very similar if not the same bird flu that is decimating US flocks.
Activist Supreme Court revealing itself.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
The U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) purchased access to a vast trove of data collected from the phones of millions of Americans, to monitor overall compliance with COVID-19 lockdown orders throughout the country. While the CDC described its initial request for phone data as a means of tracking lockdown compliance, the agency could use this type of data for expanded purposes in the future.
OBSERVATION - This exposes the desire to monitor individuals for control purposes. Use of data like this will only get worse and controlling the next time around.
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Wuhan virus -
Published last week in the Nature journal Scientific Reports, COVID-19 vaccination was “significantly associated” with a 25% jump in emergency medical services (EMS) for heart problems in 16-39 year-olds in Israel, whose vaccination rate is among the world’s highest, according to a peer-reviewed study by MIT researchers.
OBSERVATION - More and more studies coming out documenting the dangers of the jab.
U.S. health officials on Tuesday restated their recommendation that Americans wear masks on planes, trains and buses, despite a court ruling last month that struck down a national mask mandate on public transportation.
NOTE - This is a recommendation , not a mandate. Control, not disease.
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Economy
The Fed’s monetary policy panel is expected to announce a 0.5 percentage point rate hike today, twice the size of a typical interest rate increase, as the bank rushes to get in front of rising prices. Abundant commentary concerning that oncoming trainwreck of a deep recession as a result of the aggressive rate increases.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
leftists called for violence against SCOTUS, its justices, and the nation’s political system. Mainstream liberals have also taken to encouraging insurrections to intimidate the Supreme Court justices. Additional barricades are being set up around the Supreme Court. Capitol Police officers deployed yesterday and were using dump trucks to block off the road in front of the Supreme Court. Security set up at the capitol building as well.
Protests at the Supreme Court were loud but relatively peaceful.
However, it was not so elsewhere.
Ian Millhiser, a senior correspondent at Vox, was one of the first to use incendiary language to describe the leaked ruling. “Seriously, shout out to whoever the hero was within the Supreme Court who said ‘REDACTED it! Let’s burn this place down,’” he tweeted shortly after the leak surfaced.
Other blue checkmarks on Twitter called for the nation, its institutions, and the highest court in the land to literally and figuratively burn to the ground.
Antifa et al has responded to these calls. -
- Antifa in Portland, as elsewhere, are using Twitter to organize rioting in response to the Supreme Court draft opinion on Roe v. Wade.
- Seattle socialist city council member Kshama Sawant has announced an emergency direct action to protest the Supreme Court, smearing it as “right-wing.” Antifa announced they’re coming to support the event.
- Antifa in Salem, Ore. has announced riot plans for Tuesday, May 3 at 6 pm PT at the Riverfront Park.
- The National Lawyers Guild, a far-left legal group that provides help to violent far-left extremists, has put together a Seattle hotline number for those who face legal criminal issues ahead of anticipated rioting.
Results overnight saw initial rioting centered mostly in the Antifa strongholds in the west. Antifa destroyed property & started fires in Portland last night. Seattle tried to reclaim the CHAZ. Antifa rioters also threatened police at the pro-abortion direct action in Los Angeles last night.
Mobilization of Antifa and related leftist forces are continuing. Some accounts encouraged setting fires to churches, which were characterized as meeting places of conservatives, nationalists, and fascists.
Observers of Antifa are noting that popular social media accounts active in the summer two years ago are active now — some of them reactivating after many months of inactivity. Activity involves sharing of best practices on organizing and joining affinity groups, as well as general advice for direct action demonstrations, tactics for overcoming a police presence, providing first aid, practicing digital and physical security, and overall movement strategy.
OBSERVATION - BLUF Unrest is anticipated to increase towards the weekend as various Antifa cells get mobilized for action. Draft protests/riots being planned for over a dozen cities so far, trying to get a list together - but suffice is to say, they are in the places commonly rioted in 2020 - Antifa urban strongholds.
I’ve noted in earlier posts that I’ve seen trend changes towards more violent actions by Antifa, now it appears they have found a national level cause to stir the mob. It is still early to tell how much traction this specific issue will generate, but I think it is pretty clear, the socialist leftists are going to pull out all the stops to prevent a red tsunami this fall. Antifa has not been sleeping, they have been honing their tactics since 2020, training and equipping up core elements. Videos and images on social media show a much more well equipped “bloc” uniforms incorporating body armor among others things - not the adhoc black apparel of a few years ago. Finally, they have trained many on how to shoot. Doesn’t mean they have much proficiency, but they at least know how to point a weapon at a target and they are displaying a greater willingness to incorporate firearms into their protests.
BTW - I’’ working on developing more raw OSINT sources covering Antifa and hopefully they will bear fruit to get a better heads up on their plans and operations.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Democrat attempts to repeal the filibuster are crashing into the same rock wall as previous actions have.
General observation of Leftist response to the USSC leak (apart from Antifa and rabid leftist responses). Initial protests seemed to be a bit anemic and apart from those at the USSC, have been on the smaller side. Pro-aborts have tried to leverage the emotional side of the argument, but I think things are still tempered by negative economic impacts. Congressional action is tied up because democrats don’t have the votes in the senate to drive any legislation past a filibuster.
Any Antifa rioting is not expected to help the pro-abort cause as much of the country is still tired from the last round. Called for violence has already been tagged as terror to influence the court and condemned broadly - to the chagrin of a minority of very vocal group of celebrities, pundints and politicians.
The leak and pressure attempted to be placed on the USSC by leftists is assessed that it will be unsuccessful in swaying the majority of the court to change their vote. In many ways is is assessed that it will galvanize their decision and may even sway Roberts more to the right as the release is a direct affront to his leadership as Chief Justice.
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China -
China’s aircraft carrier “Liaoning,” as well as seven other vessels, are reportedly performing a naval expedition in close proximity to Nagasaki, Japan, and the U.S. Navy base at Sasebo, according to a Tuesday report from China’s Observer News. The total tonnage for this iteration of the Liaoning’s aircraft carrier group is reportedly the largest formation ever assembled in the history of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, according to an opinion piece from China’s Tencent News translated by the DCNF.
The U.S. Naval Institute fleet tracker placed both the USS Abraham Lincoln, as well as the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier in the waters near Sasebo on May 2.
OBSERVATION - This is an in your face exercise to both US and Japan.
Manufacturing activity in China dropped to its lowest level in two years, signs of economic pain unheard of in a country renowned for year-on-year 5%+ growth numbers. The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was at 47.4 in April, the 50 point mark separating growth from contraction. Some view this largely due to the draconian lockdowns in key manufacturing regions. Manufacturers are struggling to keep some of their China operations going as extended and widening Covid-19 lockdowns choke off supplies and clog up truck routes and ports, adding more pressure on the stretched global supply chain.
On top of the ongoing lockdowns, Chinese government authorities have locked down another major city in its pursuit of its zero-COVID policies. The northern port city of Qinhuangdao in Hebei province is the latest lockdown victim. The city is a major transshipment point for coal and metal ore imports destined for China’s steel industry.
OBSERVATIONS - Ripples of the disruption are just starting to hit hard. It took months, no thanks to brandon, for the past backlog to even get marginally cleared out. Of course this will come to a head in the next few months, just in time for midterms.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
Japan State Minister of Defense Makoto Oniki told reporters that North Korean conducted a missile launch that flew 500 km, hitting a max height of 800 km. Total flight time was approximately 20 minute. Asked if Japan had assessed the missile was an IRBM or ICBM, he said the ministry was continuing to analyze the test. The missile was launched from Pyongyang area, NK News learned. This suggests it was fired from Sunan Int’l Airport.
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Japan -
See N/S Korea above
See China above.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 70)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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As preparations continue for May 9th, speculation continues about any pronouncements to be made by putin.
Economic Impacts -
- Russia’s last dollar bond payments cleared international processing the day before the sanctions-stricken country would be declared in default.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The past 24 hours saw some of the most extensive cruse/ballistic missile strikes across the country since the start of the war. Multiple cruise missile strikes reported in multiple Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro and Lviv. Strikes on Lviv damaged two power stations. The head of Ukrainian Railways says the Russian military bombed six train stations in central and western Ukraine today. Damage to the nation’s rail infrastructure is still unknown. For the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a missile strike has hit Transcarpathia, Ukraine (Zakarpattia Oblast). Transcarpathia borders Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary, representing a possible warning to Romania and Hungary.
In the back and forth battles in southeastern Ukraine, there is evidence that Russia made some important gains in the Yarapil region. Russian did very little except shoot artillery elsewhere
Ukraine is exploiting successes east of Khariv potentially threatening Russian supply lines.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Ukrainian attacks eastward out of Kharkiv have developed into a large-scale counteroffensive that has the potential to unhinge Russian positions to the northeast. A US senior defense official reported that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces about 40 km east on May 2, and social media reports corroborate that report by showing Ukrainian forces liberating the settlement of Staryi Saltiv. Ukrainian recapture of Staryi Saltiv, makes Russian positions west of the Donets river untenable. Russian forces also reportedly retreated in the direction of Volchansk near the Russian state border. Ukrainian forces have also reportedly captured the village of Molodova, Kharkiv Oblast. About 40km from the city of Kharkiv.
Ukrainian success has also given them additional freedom of maneuver to the extent that the offensive could be carried across the border into Russia as well as bringing Russia logistical lines under Ukrainan artillery fire.
Videos of yesterday’s action showed Ukrainian military destroying a Russian supply convoy near Vesele village in Kharkiv region. The before artillery strike video of the Russian convoy showed them parked in an orchard of some kind, parked the tightly bumper to bumper. Post strike aerial review shows that as many as 38 supply vehicles were destroyed or damaged. This is evidence that Russia has failed to apply the lessons they should have learned in the failed northern Ukraine fight.
Russians tried to push from Izyum towards Barvinkove with no success. Restoration of command and control are still chaotic following the rocket/missile strike on a major CP last week. Advances out of Izyum continue to be largely road bound, making maneuver and resupply complicated. Russia has committed a considerable force to the Izyum effort with elements of the Airborne Forces (VDV), 1st Tank Army, 20th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies, and 68th Army Corps being present. It is assessed that these units have been substantially attrited and not anywhere near full strength. High likelihood that many units are ad hoc and severely understrength.
Further south, it appears that Russian troops have taken control of Yampil and are at the outskirts of Lyman. Heavy concentration of Russian artillery & thermobaric fire (TOS-1A) targeting Lyman & Yampil in the past 24 hours. Some of the artillery fire has crossed the Siverskyi Donets River in the vicinity of a bridge between Ozerne & Kryva Luka.
The Siverskyi Donets River and its dependent forests are the only major natural features/obstacles in the immediate region. Successful crossings at Yampil or Ozerne would bring Kramatorsk under threat while also enveloping Lysychansik & Severodonetsk.
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian forces on Tuesday began storming the sprawling steel plant serving as the last holdout for Ukrainian fighters in the besieged port city of Mariupol, Ukrainian officials said.
Russian also allowing only very limited numbers of civilians evacuate the steel plant and adjacent areas.
Russian forces continue to set conditions for the administrative occupation of Mariupol. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that private enterprises in Rostov, Russia, received orders to produce official seals and stamps for public institutions in Mariupol that reportedly contain the inscription: “Russia, the Republic of Donbas, Mariupol, the military-civilian administration.”
Attacks northward towards Dnipro and fingers of Russian advance south of Izyum remain at a stand still.
Crimea Front -
Situation remains relatively static. Limited Russian probing attacks noted in in Zaporizhia Oblast. Most activity consisted Russian shelling of Ukraine positions.
Ukraine forces continued to consolidate positions west of Kherson in preparations to resume assaults to recapture the city. Ukraine claims to have destroyed another Russian command located on the administrative border of the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. No word on any death of senior staff.
Russian coastal defense complexes fired Oniks anti-ship cruise missiles at land targets as part of yesterday’s missile barrage across Ukraine. The use of the Oniks anti-ship missile in a ground-attack role may suggest that Russian forces are experiencing shortages of the other types of long-range precision-guided munitions.
Russian Navy landing ships still concentrated at Novorossiysk, with surface combatants hugging the area around other Crimean ports. No evidence from this activity of any pending amphibious operation.
Western Ukraine -
Missile and rocket attacks truck logistical and infrastructure targets throughout the region. Kviv lost power in some areas of the town when two substations were hit by missiles/
Russian Territory -
Explosions heard over the Western Russian City of Belgorod tonight setting off car alarms. Observers posting on social media indicated that the sound were like sonic booms but they couldn’t discern if they were from Ukrainan or Russian aircraft.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces continue to be largely stalled along nearly all of the front with no apparent breakout pending. Russian forces have a potential of gaining in the Lyman & Yampil area but face a challenging river crossing that will narrow the Russian advance making them susceptible to Ukraine fire.
Russian missile fire has temporally affected resupply efforts from EU/NATO forces. However, it seems that Russian BDA and retargeting loops are very slow, giving Ukraine time to repair and reposition arms and munitions. If they are to effectively interdict resupply, they are going to have to be able to target and strike faster.
Ukraine will continue to exploit success in their offensive on the eastern side of Khariv. This offensive likely has tied up Russian units needed to pursue the offensive further to the south. The further east Ukraine is able to press, the more exposed Russian logistical lines become. I don’t expect any significant assault into Russian territory until Ukrainian forces have removed Russian forces in Khariv Oblast.
Now 70 days into this Russian dumpster fire and Russia is in no better position than they were at the start. Captured territory is easily half what they initially succeeded in gaining in the first couple weeks of the war.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Russia is preparing to evacuate the families of Russian officers from Transnistria, according to a report by a report by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
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Belarus -
Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced a “sudden check” of the reaction forces began in the country’s Armed Forces breaking via RIA Novosti. Military units and subunits will have to work out the issues of putting on alert, marching to designated areas and performing combat training tasks,” via Ministry of Defense on Telegram
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Europe / NATO General -
European Council pledges to increase military support for Moldova
US air force has deployed six F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to Borcea air base in southeastern Romania
Allied Joint Force Command says a NATO Response Force has been activated, and NATO has created a new battle group in Romania.
OBSERVATION - The importance of Romania has increased because of the unrest developing in Moldova/Transnistria.
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Israel -
Israel is putting together defensive military aid for Ukraine after Lavrov’s insulting remarks about Jews. It appears to be largely personnel protective equipment (helmets, body armor etc)
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
The Taliban government of Afghanistan is under attack by disaffected factions under the banner of the Islamic State Khorasan also known as ISKP or ISIS-K. The Taliban’s eight-month rule has devolved into instability and a non-functioning economy. The country currently sits on the brink of a massive famine. This has caused ISIS support to grow as the only viable alternative to the Taliban.
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