May Day - Socialists around the world try to strut their stuff.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
Northern Ireland will need to lose more than 1 million sheep and cattle to meet its new legally binding climate emissions targets, according to an industry-commissioned analysis seen by the Guardian.
The large-scale reduction in farm animals comes after the passing of the jurisdiction’s first ever climate act, requiring the farming sector to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and reduce methane emissions by almost 50% over the same period. About a third of human-caused methane emissions come from livestock, mostly from the burps and manure of beef and dairy cattle. Analysis by KPMG, commissioned by industry representatives including the Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU), estimates more than 500,000 cattle and about 700,000 sheep would need to be lost in order for Northern Ireland to meet the new climate targets. Separate analysis by the UK government’s climate advisers suggests chicken numbers would also need to be cut by 5 million by 2035. Agriculture accounts for about 27% of Northern Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions, with the vast majority coming from livestock. Its heavily export-driven meat industry principally supplies Great Britain, but it also exports to China and North America.
In related news, Bill Gates is spouting off about his view of meat. “I do think all rich countries should move to 100 percent synthetic beef. You can get used to the taste difference, and the claim is they’re going to make it taste even better over time,” he said.
Gates even went as far to say that governmental compulsion is an option.
“Eventually, that green premium is modest enough that you can sort of change the [behavior of] people or use regulation to totally shift the demand,” he said Gates noted there is a resistance to the new order of things as he sees it. “Now I’ve said I can actually see a path. But you’re right that saying to people, ‘You can’t have cows anymore’ — talk about a politically unpopular approach to things,” Gates said.
OBSERVATION - Using the global warming argument, the GGR seeks to control populations by controlling the food supply - I’ve mentioned this numerous times. Replacing the meat and dairy sector with, for instance, potatoes would decimate the economy as well. At this stage, how this will be enforced is not certain, however, farmers certainly are not going to give up willingly.
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Wuhan virus -
The CDC just released new VAERS data for all adverse events related to the COVID Vaxx injections, from Dec 2020 to April of this year.
1) They report, among other outcomes, a total of 12,672 U.S deaths alleged to be causally related to the vaccine.
2) Reports are not necessarily correct, as allegation does not equal causation, but the trend generally supports that conclusion, which is why we have a VAERS in the first place.
3) For historical reference, VAERS generally only gets reports filed on about 1% of actual incidents.
If the extrapolation of data is correct, then conservatively there could be as many as 1.2 million jab induced deaths. And this doesn’t even begin to factor in the permanent disabilities reported, which are four times as frequently reported as are actual deaths. For historical comparison, when they rush-released a vaccine for Swine Flu in 1976, it was pulled from further use after a mere 32 deaths, and 500 cases of Giullain-Barre Syndrome.
OBSERVATION - All about power folks, the GGR openly says so.
Moderna on Thursday sought emergency use authorization for the Covid-19 vaccine for children ages 6 months to 5 years. The FDA is expected to make a decision on this request in June, according to NBC News.
OBSERVATION - Expect a big push to jab for the next school year. Children are at virtually zero risk of dying from the wuhan virus.
- There are approximately 500 children who die every year from the seasonal flu.
- Each year over 1200 children are killed in roadside fatalities.
- And approximately 700 children drown.
DOJ is dropping investigations into the disproportionate deaths in nursing homes from wuhan. A 2020 study revealed that only 0.6% of the US population lives in nursing homes over 45% of the coronavirus deaths were in these centers.
A new study found a correlation between an increase in emergency cardiovascular events among people under 40 years of age during the launch of Israel’s COVID-19 vaccine program.
Published in the Nature journal, researchers utilized data from the Israel National Emergency Medical Services between 2019 and 2021 that evaluated emergency, or EMS, calls among 16- to 39-year-olds across Israel “with potential factors including COVID-19 infection and vaccination rates.”
They found that there was a 25 percent increase in EMS calls between January 2021 to May 2021, as compared with the years 2019 and 2020. Israel, which primarily uses Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine, launched its COVID-19 vaccine program in late December 2020.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-10928-z
OBSERVATION - As more time elapses, more and more information becomes available for evaluation by the medical community that cannot be ignored. The only reason it isn’t front page is in part Ukraine war and suppression by the MSM, though Nature has a wide audience.
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Invasion of Illegals -
This could also be listed under Domestic Terror. A report from Judicial Watch that cites an unnamed senior Homeland Security official said Mexican drug cartels have launched more than 9,000 drone flights into America over the past year. The drones are sent to spy on law enforcement and related security operations in the Texas area, the official said.
As we’ve seen elsewhere, drones are capable of collection a significant amount of intelligence and in this case, border is falling under increasing control by Mexican drug cartels. if unchecked, the only way we will be able to regain control is through a military operation as law enforcement is ill prepared and staffed to regain control against such well armed and equipped cartel forces.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Follow up on the Antifa attack of participants of the People’s Convoy in Portland . The attack was openly organized on Twitter. There are also unconfirmed reports that the attacks drew defensive weapons fire by some of the members of the convoy.
Speaking of Antifa, numerous May Day events across the country are being planned for today. Antifa in Portland, Ore. are holding an event at 1 p.m. at Laurelhurst Park. They use the event to recruit new members & to further radicalize existing ones.
Seattle Antifa are promoting the communist May Day march happening at Judkins Park at 1 pm. The Seattle May Day events are infamous for violence. Starbucks is closing its 5th & Pike Street location in order to protect staff. Antifa are also calling for violence against amazon.
This is being hammered elsewhere on FR and the inter webs, but I’d like to expand some key points here. The DHS Disinformation Governance Board’s mission is to curb disinformation and radicalization. Those are codewords that refer to ‘facts the administration does not like’ and ‘ideas contrary to its own’. Of particular note in this regard, according to DHS Secretary Mayorkas disinformation is any “election misinformation.” The nut job put uncharge of this ‘board’ is Nina Jankowicz, a Democratic party operative. She has spent her time since 2016 pushing the obscene Trump-Russia collusion narrative and assuring you Hunter Biden’s laptop is not real. More recently, she expounded on the science of biology stating “there are many non-binary people who give birth” — despite the basic fact that pregnancy is biologically unique to women.
Let’s add a new layer, all of this is occurring under the direction of Joshua Geltzer. Geltzer is the Special Assistant to the President and Special Advisor to the Homeland Security Advisor on Countering Domestic Violent Extremism. In this role, Geltzer oversaw the creation of the new national strategy for countering domestic violent extremism. This is the absurd document produced by the Biden administration, which claimed that white supremacists (read Trump supporters) posed the number one threat to American national security.
OBSERVATION - Timing is everything and I don’t think it is coincidence that this is being trotted out when the democrats are facing a bloodbath in the midterms of gigantic proportions if the polling data is valid. What is still missing - and am looking for help to find - is just what kind of a hammer does this Jankowicz have to enforce her future edicts on what she calls ‘disinformation’? Will she have powers to arrest of fine people? Inquiring minds want to know. But this is one component of the convergence of a ‘perfect storm’ for domestic craziness as the midterms get closer.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -
Musk still has liberals in turmoil.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 65)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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A Russian AN-30 violated Swedish airspace near a major naval base. This is an unarmed reconnaissance aircraft and likely flew to tweak Sweden regarding application to NATO.
Observers monitoring the upcoming Russian May 9th parade preps note that there will be no Su-30SM & Su-34 on the air part of the parade in Moscow. They will be replaced by MiG-29s that have already been taken off the shelves & in addition to older Su-24s. Apparently, all available equipment is used against Ukraine.
RUMINT -
Putin may be forced to give up control of the war in Ukraine for days as he is set for cancer surgery, a ‘Kremlin insider’ has claimed. He will reportedly nominate hardline Security Council head and ex-FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev to take control of the invasion while he is under the knife. Patrushev, 70, is seen as a key architect of the war strategy so far - and the man who convinced Putin that Kyiv is awash with neo-Nazis. Rumors persist that Putin has abdominal cancer and Parkinson’s.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Reportedly (pending further confirmation) Major General Andrey Dmitriyevich Simonov was killed in an attack on a Russian Ground Forces HQ in north of Izyum. Commanding the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army (2nd CAA) known to be operating in the area around Izyum.
Economic Impacts -
- The Finnish government and companies are preparing for the cessation of natural gas supplies from Russia in May.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Pelosi and a congressional delegation made a surprise visit to Kyiv and met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
I’ve noted that the fight for Donbas will be fluid and today is no exception. Following some Russian successes over the past few days, analysis by Western officials and analysts is that Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine appears to be faltering, as its troops suffer battlefield losses and logistical and morale problems similar to those they faced in the war’s first phase. In part this may be due to the recent loss of the CG for the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army in Izyum as well as the Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reportedly taking charge of the Dombas operation . Russian advances are once again very road bound and Ukraine is increasingly hitting logistics hard. Russian forces are relying upon heavy artillery to support frontal attacks on prepared defenses, as i’ve pointed out many times resulting in heavy losses.
Kyiv front -
Pelosi et al visited Kyiv.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Ukraine announced that it had liberated four more villages (Ruska Lozova, Slobidske, Prelesne and Verkhnia Rohanka) from the outskirts of Kharkiv. This follows the recapture of Momotove yesterday. Ukrainian forces continue to push Russia back from Kharkiv city. The Institute for War Studies says this has been part a series of successful counter-attacks out of the city in recent days. These actions push Russian artillery further away and out of range of much of Khariv and closer to the Russian border. This also poses a threat to Russian supply lines leading to Izyum and further south.
The reported loss of the CG of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army has to have had a very negative impact on Russia planning and execution of operations Russian forces around Izyum. They continue to try to press the attack southeast and southwest out of the town but are continually thwarted by Ukrainian forces. Reports of additional units being forwarded to the are but analysts see that there is very little chance they will affect the conflict in the short term. These additional units thought to be reconstituted/reorganized units pulled from the north, already suffering equipment and personnel shortages and with poor morale.
Heavy Russian shelling in Luhansk region in last 24 hours. 12 houses destroyed. Russian forces continued unsuccessful attacks alongside artillery fire and airstrikes on the entire Donetsk-Luhansk frontline and did not make any confirmed advances.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian airstrikes continued to bombard the Azovstal plant and Russian forces did not conduct any major ground attacks as forces continued to redeploy from Mariupol.
Hopes being raise that Russia will permit civilians to be evacuated from Mariupol today.
Occupying Russian forces are intensifying occupation measures through Mariupol. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko stated that abandoned homes in the Staryi Krym region of Mariupol are being resettled under DNR-issued permits and that the Kremlin plans to return Mariupol residents who were previously forcibly deported to Russia once Russian forces consolidate control of the city.
Ukraine Red Cross’ office in Dobropillia, a city located in Donetsk region in war-torn eastern Ukraine, was bombed and destroyed Saturday, the organization posted on Twitter, making the eighth Ukraine Red Cross office to be damaged or destroyed since Russia invaded.
No significant ground advances northward.
Crimea Front -
Relatively static on the Kherson area as it appears that Russian forces are engaging in limited combat operations to improve their tactical positions and replenish supplies for future operations believed to be an attempt to capture the administrative borders of Kherson Oblast.
Russian missile hit fertilizer warehouse in Mykolaiv, another damaged the runway at the Odesa airport.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian military hit Russian positions at Zmiiny (Snake) island again, destroyed equipment. NOTE - The report says ‘again’. I saw a report claiming that Ukraine destroyed Russian ADA assets on the island but saw no other sources of verification.
Russian troops controlling the city of Kherson say the rouble will be used there starting Sunday.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.
Russian Territory -
Reports from a Russian source says Ukrainian warplane entered Russian airspace in Bryansk province this morning and dropped at least two bombs on the local oil terminal.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. With time it is becoming increasingly apparent that the Russian offensive for the Donbas is losing traction and stalling out. There is only very minor success in the southern Khariv front, but at a high price. There is little evidence that Russia has the assets necessary to effect a breakout. The southern portion of the offensive coming out of the separatist held areas is suffering an even worse failure, as attacks northward continue to be repulsed.
Crimean front appears to be attempting a north-northeastward assault, but facing the same stalemate against Ukraine defenses. Forces are also unable to press the attack towards Odesa and are struggling to keep the Ukrainian offensive towards Kherson at bay.
Russian forces are in process of putting together fake ‘referendums’ by the conquered Ukrainan areas to declare independence and join Russia. This may be a face saving attempt to show ‘victory’ for the May 9th shindig.
As more and more western weaponry gets deployed by Ukraine the situation will become more difficult for Russia to achieve the capture of Donbas. This may cause putin to become more desperate.
Watching the situation in Transnistria for developments as well as Ukrainian deep attacks in Crimea targeting supply lines from Russia. Same for Ukrainan attacks in Russian territory opened up by the withdrawal of Russian forces from the north.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Nothing significant to report today.
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Europe / NATO General -
Inflation rose to its highest level in over four decades in Germany, as the economic fallout from years of lockdown restrictions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine continue to bite the leading economic power of the European Union.
Germany’s statistics agency Destatis announced on Thursday that consumer prices rose by 7.4 per cent in the month of April compared to the same time last year. The inflation rate is the highest level since 1981 in West Germany, when the country was divided by the Berlin Wall.
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Israel -
RUMINT Israeli media reports the Mossad – operating in Iran – yes, you read that correctly, apprehended and interrogated an Iranian national who was leading a plot to kill an Israeli diplomat and a US general, sources have confirmed.????
Rasouli was arrested and questioned in Iran, a rarity as the Mossad regularly operates in conjunction with foreign intelligence services to thwart attacks but almost always from outside the Islamic Republic.”
OBSERVATION - not sure what to make of this so marking a s RUMINT until more information becomes available
The Israeli army imposes a comprehensive closure on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip crossings, starting from Tuesday.
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Iraq -
Three rockets were reportedly fired towards Ain al-Assad base in Iraq in the past hour or so. No injuries reported as of yet. Rockets likely shot by an Iranian backed militia as in the past.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Azerbaijan’s president Aliyev says Ukraine should never ever agree on occupation, rely on its resources and fight back to protect what it has He says Azerbaijan has good relations with Russia but Baku has always supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity, “we aren’t hiding”
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Globalism / Great Reset -
A London-based company has developed a new contactless payment system that involves embedding a microchip into a person’s hand. Tech company Walletmor has developed a new app called Purewrist, which is a digital wallet combined with a microchip that can be installed in your hand. Once the chip is installed, a person can then use the app and chip to make payments to businesses that also use the app. Walletmore’s chip is quite light and is only a bit bigger than a grain of rice and is composed of a microchip and an antenna, which is surrounded by biopolymer.
OBSERVATION - This easily fits into the GGR’s desire for the use of biometrics to track people and purchases. Also raises red flags of biblical proportion.
Samantha Power celebrated the global fertilizer shortage resulting from the Ukraine conflict, claiming it will “hasten transitions” for farmers to use “natural solutions.”
Power, who now serves as the Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), said the fertilizer shortages are actually “in the interest of farmers”, claiming “manure and compost” are more eco-friendly alternatives. “And this may hasten transitions that would have been in the interest of farmers to make eventually anyway. So, never let a crisis go to waste,” she said.
OBSERVATION - Opinions from an individual who really doesn’t know how the food gets to her table - and largely doesn’t care because she is one of the elites.
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Wuhan virus -
A recently published study from Israel has confirmed a strong correlation between a massive increase in emergency cardiovascular events among people under 40 and the beginning of the country’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) mass vaccination program.
Anthony Fauci attended yesterday’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner pre-party without a mask. The crowded room would have been called a super-spreader event if there were Republicans there, but since it was mostly leftist politicians and corporate media folks, they didn’t even pretend to social distance.
Microsoft billionaire Bill Gates says the world has not seen the worst of Covid yet.
OBSERVATION - Remember Gates participated in the wuhan gaming session in 2019 that preceded the breakout of the disease a month or so later.
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Economy -
Good news, by April 24, topsoil moisture was rated at surplus in all Midwestern states except Iowa, according to today’s Drought Monitor report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The bad news, as a result, corn seeding is at least 10 percentage points behind the five-year average planting pace in Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, and Missouri.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -
Musk engaged ORC in a battle of wits, is chastised for fighting an unarmed opponent. . . . .
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
Reports that the US has used up about 1/3d of its Javelin stockpile and is facing difficulties in restocking.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 66)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Continued discussion on putin’s health. If he is going under the knife, I suspect that he will wait untl after May 9th in the event that something bad happens on the table.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- See discussion about Gerasimov below under Ukraine.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Rumors exploded (no pun intended) over the weekend concerning Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov having been caught and wounded in the Ukraine attack on a CP outside of Izyum. Here’s the best established facts.
1. Ukrainian forces conducted a rocket artillery strike on a Russian command post in Izyum on April 30 that struck after Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov had left.
2. More than 40 high-ranked Russian military officers gathered in the CP and reportedly, up to 20 of them are confirmed killed incl. Gen. Andrey Simonov, a commander of electronic warfare forces of the West district.
3. Two U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence assessments, confirmed that General Gerasimov had been in eastern Ukraine for the past couple days, but had no information about the attack on the Russian base.
4. A Senior Ukrainian official denied reports that Gerasimov was wounded on the visit, but said a Ukrainian attack on a base in Izium that the general had visited hours earlier killed up to 200 servicemen, including a general.
5. Gerasimov reportedly departed the CP less than an hour before the attack and flew by helicopter to Belgorod, boarded an aircraft and returned to Moscow.
6. Gerasimov was on a visit of the front lines and was not taking on site control of the offensive.
OBSERVATION - The ability of Ukraine to collect time sensitive targetable intelligence and launch a successful attack is mind boggling incredible to this formerly military mind. Even if the US/NATO is the source of the intelligence, the ability of Ukraine to pull the trigger and get ‘er done is just wow.
Combat levels throughout Ukraine lowered slightly overnight, likely representing a Russian pause to rearm and refuel. Russian is trying to avoid the same mistakes it made in the north.
Activity picked up in the Black Sea area around the now infamous Snake Island. Other Russian naval activity noted around Crimea with Russia relying more on sub launched cruse missiles than more vulnerable surface vessels.
The 60 day state of emergency for Belgorod Oblast reflects an increasing threat that Ukraine assets can influence Russian logistical / military operations in areas once considered safe.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Russian forces continued to shell the suburbs of Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces continued successful attacks to push Russian forces away from Kharkiv and towards the Russian border. These attacks are likely drawing forces away that are needed further south to advance the Donbas offensive. Is is also starting to place Russian territory at risk from a ground assault.
Further south, Russian troops continued to focus efforts on completing the seizures of Rubizhne and Popasna with ground assaults supported by artillery, but were unsuccessful. Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces made limited advances in the direction of Lyman via Krymky and Oleksandrivka and attempted to advance toward Kurakhove via Olenivka and Novomykhailvka. Russian forces are experiencing relatively more success pushing southwestward in Donetsk Oblast in the Lyman direction. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces mounted an unsuccessful attack against Ozerne, which indicates that Russian forces have likely made limited gains to the south and west of Yampil (which is less than 15 km southeast of Lyman)
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Ukrainian National Guard brigade commander Denys Shlega said Sunday in a televised interview that Russia’s bombardment of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol resumed right after the partial evacuation of civilians. Only 100 people made it on their way to Ukrainian-controlled territory. It is estimated that several hundred civilians remain at the steel plant.
Russian attacks on Ukrainian defensive positions along the pre-February 24 front lines continue to fail to make substantial progress. Repeated Russian failures to capture villages such as Zolote and Vilne suggest that pre-invasion Ukrainian defensive positions are too strong for Russian troops to storm. This is seriously imparting Russian efforts to push northward to join up with forces pushing southward from Izyum - Lyman region.
Crimea Front -
Continued heightened Russian Navy activity in Lake Donuzlav, in northwestern Crimea. Special gunboats and fast landing craft are deployed there. The landing craft were (again) seen running at high speed.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian military hit Russian positions at Zmiiny (Snake) island. Two Russian Navy Project 03160 ‘Raptor’ patrol boats were also struck by Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs near Snake Island. Ukraine navy does have TB2s.
Russian troops attempted to advance near Ivanovka-Zahradivka, but failed.
Ukraine security services foiled Russian attempt to destabilize situation in Odesa. 12 suspected saboteurs detained, weapons and ammunition seized. Also 2 person connected to former MP Ilya Kiva detained
New Russian missile strike at the bridge over Dnistrovsky Lyman in Odesa region
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.
Russian Territory -
A 60 day state of emergency on the territory of the Belgorod Region was declared by the Kremlin yesterday.
Overnight, Russian air defense units were targeting unknown aircraft (possible UAVs?) above Belgorod. There was also what appeared to be a fighter jet deploying flairs over Belgorod.
OBSERVATION - Aerial intrusion over Belgorod at this stage is largely psyops, letting the Russians know they are not safe. It also serves to divert Russian focus from Donbas to protecting strategic supply lines that pass through Belgorod.
Explosions in Rylsk area of Kursk region, air defense is active
Railway bridge collapsed between Sudzha and Sosnovy Bor in Kursk region of Russia, Governor blames saboteurs. Explosion reported in Belgorod Russia, with initial reports suggesting it may be a weapons depot. The Governor of the Belgorod Region confirmed that there is a fire in a facility belonging to Russia’s Ministry of Defense. At least two separate fires are visible on social media postings.
Some observers are noting suspicious fires further into Russian, some are dismissing as coincidence. In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire under suspicious conditions.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces continue to be largely stalled along nearly all of the front with no apparent breakout pending. In spite of being reinforced by elements redeployed from the failed Kyiv campaign, Russian doesn’t really have the mass of forces necessary to capture Donbas and appear to be repeating many of the same errors that plagued them there.
Review of Russian objective for this Phase 2 war effort -
1. Capture of the Donbas region.
2. Establish a land bridge between Separatist controlled regions and Crimea
3. Capture and control all Ukrainan access to the Black Sea
4. Establish a land bridge to Russian controlled Transnistria.
It is apparent that goals 1, 3 and 4 are not happening, while 2 has been largely accomplished.
Some analyasts believe that Russian forces are attempting to set conditions to mount an offensive in the directions of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih, in the Crimea front region. Such an offensive operation will force the drainage of combat power needed for the Donbas offensive.
More speculation on what role Transnistria based forces will play in this conflict. Some analysts are suspecting that the two poorly manned and equipped motorized rifle battalions (1500-2000 men) will launch some sort of supporting attack to link up with an amphibious operation to attack Odesa from the west while Russia musters an offensive from the east from the Kherson region. This may be why Russian has taken the time to strike the bridge over Dnistrovsky Lyman in Odesa region for a third time. This would impede Ukraine reinforcement against any Russian operation to the east of the bridge, potentially increasing the chances of success. Those Russian forces could swing northward into Transnistria and pivot to the east towards Odesa. One possible Russian goal would be to divert forces away from the Donbas effort.
Audacious in the short term, but likely to fail epically in the longer as Russian forces are already stretched very thin and it hasn’t shown the capability to execute such a complex plan. Still, the situation in area of Ukraine needs to be monitored because something is afoot and the full extent still hasn’t reared its head yet.
Expect more actions against Russian facilities in Russia, not only in Belgorod Oblast but potentially deeper into Russia, as these pin prick attacks are complicating Russian planning for the Ukraine operation.
Finally, continued monitoring of putin’s health and any declarations to be made in conjunction with the May 9 parade/ceremonies.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
According to Ukrainian intelligence sources cited by the UK’s Times newspaper, an invasion of Moldova would help Russia threaten the Ukrainian city of Odesa from the west. They reportedly said Odesa would be an easier target if Moscow controlled Moldova - and the Moldovan army only consisted of a few thousand troops. Tension has already been rising in the pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria, where there’s been a series of unexplained explosions.
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Belarus -
About 80 railway control boxes were burned along key rail lines supporting Russian logistics, near stations and crossings. Belarusian partisans also set on fire the main control station at the Baronivichi train station .
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Poland -
The Polish Government has announced that Large-Scale Military Exercises will be taking place across the Country beginning today involving the Polish Military and multiple NATO Member States, heavy military equipment is expected to be seen on highways and roads around the country.
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Europe / NATO General -
EU remains unable to agree on ending supplies of Russian gas, Germany’s economy minister says. Ministers are due to have emergency talks, but Hungary has made it clear it will block consensus
Denmark summoned Russia’s ambassador after a Russian spy plane violates its airspace.
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Israel -
Jordan has blamed Israel for the violence on the temple mount and Al-Aqsa mosque and for violating the status quo there. And now, it is demanding total control over the Temple Mount. Jordan is also concerned The country is also concerned that Hamas is replacing it as custodian and “gatekeeper” of the Temple Mount.
Jordan reportedly submitted a letter to the Biden administration, demanding the Waqf (Muslim religious guards) be given total control over the Temple Mount. It wants to institute a dress code for non-Muslims, as well as limit visitors to groups no larger than five people. Jordan is also demanding that Israel Police no longer be allowed on the Temple Mount, even if rioters attack Jewish worshippers at the Western Wall or visitors to the site itself.
Its demands also include giving the Waqf the authority to severely restrict non-Muslim visits to the Temple Mount; requiring non-Muslims to apply to visit in writing in advance; and setting restrictive tour routes of no more than 500 feet (150 meters) in each direction for non-Muslim visitors.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said over the weekend that Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler had “Jewish blood,” prompting a furious response from Israel. Israeli Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian Ambassador Over Lavrov’s statement
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Unconfirmed Reports today that Azerbaijan has joined Turkey in closing its Airspace to Russian Military Aircraft.
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