China’s scripted coast-guard incursions around the Senkaku Islands aim to normalize control through mass and proximity. But Japan has reorganized for rapid joint action, dispersing long-range anti-ship missiles across the Ryukyus, expanding fifth-gen air and AEW, and adding Tomahawks to create a lethal denial web. The U.S.–Japan alliance now signals unambiguous coverage, with carrier, Marine Littoral Regiment, and ISR/long-range fires ready to stiffen defense. Who would win a fight?