Free Republic

So, if war broke out today, who “wins”? A cautious judgment: China could win early episodes—sinking ships, mauling an airbase, or imposing a brief local exclusion near a contested feature—because interior lines and magazine depth pay dividends on day one. But carried beyond the first salvos, the balance bends toward an ugly allied denial. With coastal fires in Japan and the Philippines, coalition patrols normalized inside Manila’s EEZ, and Fujian not yet truly operational, Beijing’s odds of converting tactical gains into a durable political victory are low—unless allied kill chains break or magazines run dry.

Boeing’s X-32B, the Joint Strike Fighter contender that lost to Lockheed Martin’s X-35 (now the F-35), survives in just two museum airframes: one indoors at the USAF Museum and one outdoors at the Patuxent River Naval Air Museum, where weather is taking a toll.

The conflict itself would likely play out in several phases. The opening week would be defined by missile barrages aimed at Taiwan’s defenses and US forward bases, along with cyber and space attacks to blind command networks. Taiwan’s dispersal plans and mobile launchers would mitigate, but not eliminate, the damage. The next phase would be the battle for sea denial. Submarines, mines, and long-range anti-ship weapons would be hurled against convoys carrying PLA troops and supplies across the Strait. Geography favors the defenders, but China’s proximity and numerical advantage mean some ships would get through. The outcome of this battle...

Based on discussions with retired senior US military officials, the best chance for the F-35 Ferrari option is not as an option if the F-47 falters or is delayed. Where it may have the greatest utility, said one source very close to the program, is that technologies being developed for the Block 4 F-35 are close to the baseline for the very first models of the F-47. There is the possibility of a happy marriage there, I was told, that is the option with the greatest potential. Based on what National Security Journal is being told, if there is a...

The 9 September events demonstrate two interlocking realities. First, the prospect of a NATO–Russia war is no longer an abstraction. Moscow has shown a willingness to test NATO directly. Second, the most likely path to such a conflict is not through deliberate escalation but through miscalculation. The means to a wider war exist; the question is which one. Technical failure, human error, or political panic could cause escalation to spiral in a single instant.

The US Navy wanted the F-14 Tomcat for long-range fleet defense against Soviet bomber threats, requiring a large radar, powerful air-to-air missiles, and the ability to operate across a wide range of airspeeds to carry heavy ordnance and maintain maneuverability. The variable-sweep wing design, combined with advanced fire-control systems and the AIM-54 Phoenix missile, made the F-14 capable of engaging multiple targets at long distances while still being able to perform close-in combat and dogfighting.

This 6th-generation aircraft, now designated the F-47, will be the first stealthy aircraft designed by Boeing and is intended to move far beyond the F-35, into territory where, literally, “no man has gone before.” It will be bereft of any vertical control surfaces and will, according to one person close to the program who spoke to National Security Journal, “Be based on concepts of stealth that go beyond just the shaping of an aircraft fuselage and the techniques we know as the keys to low RCS today,” he said. “I cannot be specific about these newer technologies, which have not...

SSN(X) is the Navy’s planned successor to Virginia: a larger, stealthier, longer-legged attack submarine that teams with UUVs, carries more weapons, and is designed for higher availability. Costs will dwarf current boats, and industrial bottlenecks—from single-source suppliers to overloaded yards—are real. Budget trade-offs and shipyard realities have pushed the first procurement to around FY-2040, delaying entry to the fleet.

The U.S. Navy faces a dangerous shortage of attack submarines, leaving it stretched too thin to meet global demands. While the fleet is already below its 66-boat goal, the reality is worse: about one-third of subs are non-deployable at any time due to massive maintenance backlogs and crew shortages.

“Worst” can mean many things: a jet that killed too many of its own pilots, missed its moment technologically, or never matched the mission it was bought to fly. Context matters—some of these aircraft taught valuable lessons or worked better in one air force than another. But taken on the whole—design intent vs. delivered performance, safety, combat effectiveness, and sustainment—these five stand out for the wrong reasons.

To see the F-14 Tomcat for myself, I ventured out to the Air and Space Museum near Dulles International Airport in the Washington, DC, metro area. The Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center in Manassas, Virginia, has every airplane and spacecraft that you can imagine. I was fortunate to interview an F-14 pilot who actually flew the Tomcat that is on display at the Air and Space Museum in Virginia.

South Korea’s Hyundai-Rotem is developing the K3, a next-generation main battle tank concept packed with futuristic technology. Prioritizing firepower, the K3 concept features a larger 130mm main gun with AI-based fire controls and an autoloader for a three-person crew. The tank is almost an on-the-ground and smaller armored version of something that resembles a B-21 bomber more than a conventional MBT.

The U.S. Space Force’s secretive X-37B is a reusable, unmanned spaceplane whose true mission remains a mystery. Its eighth mission, launched August 21, 2025, has reignited speculation, with Russia and China claiming it is a space bomber. While not a “Death Star,” the X-37B is an invaluable and record-breaking testbed for advanced satellite technologies, enabling the U.S. to conduct experiments in space and bring the results back home for analysis.

The Ohio-class’s carrying capacity is about 50 percent of the entire supply of the U.S. Navy’s Tomahawk missiles. And since these SSGNs have been used recently to great effect, why take them away now? Some experts even argue that there is a strong case for attempting a refit of at least some of these powerful missile submarines until more Virginia-class boats equipped with cruise missiles can replace them.

On Sept 3, Beijing hosted one of its biggest military parades in years. Xi Jinping watched from Tiananmen Square as long-range missiles, hypersonic weapons, and unmanned systems rolled past in a choreographed display of force, accompanied by Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un. The message was unmistakable: China is positioning itself to shift the global balance of power in its favor — and has the will and means to field a military that can deliver not just quantitative, but qualitative, superiority over the United States.

The United Kingdom’s new Challenger 3 is a technologically impressive and formidable main battle tank, but the decision to procure only 148 units renders the fleet “patently inadequate” for its strategic needs. This small, “brittle” force lacks the numbers and depth required to sustain heavy combat operations, honor NATO commitments in Eastern Europe, or project power effectively.

For over three decades since the Cold War, the United States has lacked a coherent strategy for Russia, lurching from one failed “reset” to another. This stands in stark contrast to the clear, successful Cold War doctrine of containment. Successive administrations have failed to grasp Russia’s true nature and objectives, allowing Moscow to rearm and pursue its imperial ambitions.

The Caribbean has become a “powder keg” as U.S. warships steam off the coast of Venezuela, sparking a tense standoff. While Washington frames the deployment as a counter-narcotics operation, it’s a clear strategic signal to President Maduro, whose own provocations against Guyana and alignment with China and Russia have raised alarms.

China is not planning to launch one or two missiles at an aircraft carrier; it is planning to launch dozens, if not hundreds. The PLARF possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the world, with thousands of launchers. In a conflict, they would unleash a massive, coordinated salvo attack designed to overwhelm any defense.

The fact is, said a retired Dassault executive, that “those questioning the Rafale’s combat capability forget just how long the aircraft has been around, how Dassault was one of the first aircraft design companies to seriously mitigate the aircraft’s signature by treating the inlets with radar absorbing materials, how it was one of the first aircraft to have an electronically-scanning array radar, and so on.” “These and other features of Rafale make it more than a match for these US aircraft within the visual range part of the engagement envelope,” he continued.