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The U.S.-China South China Sea War of 2025: Who Would Win?
National Security Journal ^ | 9/16/2025 | Andrew Latham

Posted on 09/16/2025 7:36:35 AM PDT by whyilovetexas111

So, if war broke out today, who “wins”?

A cautious judgment: China could win early episodes—sinking ships, mauling an airbase, or imposing a brief local exclusion near a contested feature—because interior lines and magazine depth pay dividends on day one. But carried beyond the first salvos, the balance bends toward an ugly allied denial.

With coastal fires in Japan and the Philippines, coalition patrols normalized inside Manila’s EEZ, and Fujian not yet truly operational, Beijing’s odds of converting tactical gains into a durable political victory are low—unless allied kill chains break or magazines run dry.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalsecurityjournal.org ...


TOPICS: Government; History; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS: china; southchinasea; taiwan; usnavy

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Considering trillions of dollars in goods travel this waterway we would be looking at a depression...
1 posted on 09/16/2025 7:36:35 AM PDT by whyilovetexas111
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To: whyilovetexas111

J Beth Gorton would win.


2 posted on 09/16/2025 7:37:32 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: whyilovetexas111

Not buying imported goods does not cause a depression here. It causes a depression in China.


3 posted on 09/16/2025 7:43:33 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: whyilovetexas111

Buying imported goods does not create prosperity and wealth here. It’s a net drain of wealth.


4 posted on 09/16/2025 7:45:01 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: whyilovetexas111

Tell the Chicoms to pull the trigger and we’ll find out.


5 posted on 09/16/2025 7:53:39 AM PDT by Frank Drebin (And don't ever let me catch you guys in America!)
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To: central_va
--- "Andrew Latham -- Scholar / Academic leader / Think Tank member / Educator / Opinion columnist / Novelist / Bridging the worlds of academia, media and policy in the international security space."

These editorial types do not, to paraphrase you, "import goods" as an actual business, nor create prosperity and wealth except for themselves. So many talking heads, but none run manufacturing businesses nor operate wholesale or retail business in the private sector to employ many Amercians in any number.

These types manufacture words and clicks and sell ads and operate several similar "opinion" websites.

National Security Journal Inc.
800 N King Street Suite 304
Wilmington, DE 19801

6 posted on 09/16/2025 7:58:12 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: whyilovetexas111

It is not going to happen. So there are no “What ifs”.


7 posted on 09/16/2025 8:02:21 AM PDT by Openurmind (AI - An Illusion for Aptitude Intrusion to Alter Intellect. )
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To: central_va

China is no longer our chief importer, hasn’t been for few years. They don’t need the US like they used to, they are exporting worldwide.


8 posted on 09/16/2025 8:04:06 AM PDT by delta7
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To: Openurmind
--- "It is not going to happen. So there are no 'What ifs'."

Agree. But for these folks and the sister 19fortyfive site, there are clicks and subscribers and ads and.... if you want to comment, they will collect your email and other data, because....

When do you think the OP will actually respond to you?

9 posted on 09/16/2025 8:06:18 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: whyilovetexas111

80% of Chinese petroleum products (gas, oil, petrochemicals) are delivered via ocean going tankers from the Middle East.

All the US/Allies have to do is stop such traffic way beyond the reach of the PLA Navy.

The pipelines from Russia, btw, are all in the planning stage. There is one from Sakhalin Island almost completed, which Japan can cut. The rest have to lay hundreds of miles of pipeline thru inhospitable deserts, vast mountain ranges, and Siberian permafrost. There’s a reason the Silk Road from China was so challenging a journey.


10 posted on 09/16/2025 8:08:43 AM PDT by Alas Babylon! (They don’t kill you because you’re a Nazi, they call you a Nazi so they can kill you.--CFW)
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To: delta7

Importing goods makes the nation less wealthy. Some nations import what they need and maintain balanced trade. OTOH the USA is being strip mined of her wealth thru trade.


11 posted on 09/16/2025 8:16:41 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

I rarely go to the original source unless it is something extremely important. Usually an intelligent person can determine BS in a line or two from here.

This headline alone read to me as “Come on Boys! Let’s drum up a war with China and see who wins the Super Bowl! It might be close so we need bigger bowls of rice than they got!”

About our discussion, you do realize that pure false propaganda comes from “reputable” sources also right? There isn’t any of them you can can trust as accurate... Every source is questionable... So they are all equal in this respect. :)


12 posted on 09/16/2025 8:41:40 AM PDT by Openurmind (AI - An Illusion for Aptitude Intrusion to Alter Intellect. )
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To: whyilovetexas111

America’s subs will be the deciding factor.


13 posted on 09/16/2025 8:53:35 AM PDT by kenmcg (ti hi o)
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To: central_va

OTOH the USA is being strip mined of her wealth thru trade.
————-
President Trump can handle/ fix all that. I don’t agree with all his trade economic actions, but he most certainly deserves support and some patience.


14 posted on 09/16/2025 9:07:50 AM PDT by delta7
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To: Openurmind

Only people that hate America really think other countries can beat the USA. China can’t move its military out of China that alone is bad for China. China got run out of Africa, what are they truly capable of if they got done like that in Africa?

900 American bases in 90 countries worldwide including 10 within China’s backyard. Allies Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam and Australia! God Bless the USA and her formidable friends!


15 posted on 09/16/2025 9:28:18 AM PDT by Alas Babylon! (They don’t kill you because you’re a Nazi, they call you a Nazi so they can kill you.--CFW)
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To: Alas Babylon!

Yes, they are having trouble moving into South America too...


16 posted on 09/16/2025 9:31:39 AM PDT by Openurmind (AI - An Illusion for Aptitude Intrusion to Alter Intellect. )
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To: whyilovetexas111

.


17 posted on 09/16/2025 9:38:10 AM PDT by sauropod
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To: Alas Babylon!
Only people that hate America really think other countries can beat the USA.

Not true. We just spent 20 years in Afghanistan and won nothing. America goes to war directly or thru proxy to launder money. Period

18 posted on 09/16/2025 9:41:19 AM PDT by 03A3 (If we can defund the police, we sure as hell can defund the FBI)
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To: central_va
Not buying imported goods does not cause a depression here. It causes a depression in China.

You might want to reconsider your thinking on who will get the depression. We are being replaced as it is due to our own stupidity.

.


19 posted on 09/16/2025 9:55:06 AM PDT by Karl Spooner
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To: whyilovetexas111

Two things

Oil and Steel

We have it

They don’t

See Japan....


20 posted on 09/16/2025 10:28:10 AM PDT by Vendome (I've Gotta Be Me https://youtu.be/wH-pk2vZG2M)
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