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To:         Interested PartiesFR:         BC '04 Strategy & PoliticalRe:         Update on States that President Bush is             Visiting Today and Tomorrow Iowa: As Close as 2000, but This Time Grassley Shares the Top of the Ticket The race in Iowa is locked in a dead heat.  The latest American Research Group poll (July 26-28) shows the President and Kerry tied at 47%.  John Kerry spent most of the Democratic primary season introducing himself to Iowa voters, and the race is still tied there today.    History suggests that the President will finish strong in Iowa.  The same American Research Group poll showed Gore leading...

TO:  Bush-Cheney '04 Campaign LeadershipFM:  Matthew Dowd       Chief StrategistRE:  The Democratic convention and its       effect on the presidential race John Kerry becomes the first presidential candidate since 1972 to receive a negative bounce from his convention.  Kerry’s performance in Gallup's post-convention poll is even worse than George McGovern’s in 1972, making it the worst convention bounce in Gallup’s history of presidential campaign polling.  "An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers.  In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should...

TO:     Campaign LeadershipFROM: Matthew Dowd, BC’04 Chief StrategistRE:     The most recent Washington Post-ABC          News PollDATE:   7/27/04ABC News/Washington Post PollJuly 22-25, 2004.  N=1,202 adults, 974 RVs.At the start of the Democratic National Convention, President Bush and John Kerry are locked in a tight race.  President Bush now holds a 1-point lead over John Kerry among registered voters, 49% to 48%.  The closeness of the race is confirmed by the recent FOX News poll, which showed the race tied at 44%.  While history suggests that Kerry should still receive a "bounce" of up to 15 points from his convention, it is clear that his selection of...