BC'04 Strategy & Political Memo: Update on States that President Bush is Visiting Today and Tomorrow

George W. Bush ^ | August 4, 2004

[RWR8189]

To:         Interested Parties
FR:         BC '04 Strategy & Political
Re:         Update on States that President Bush is
             Visiting Today and Tomorrow

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Iowa: As Close as 2000, but This Time Grassley Shares the Top of the Ticket

• The race in Iowa is locked in a dead heat.  The latest American Research Group poll (July 26-28) shows the President and Kerry tied at 47%.  John Kerry spent most of the Democratic primary season introducing himself to Iowa voters, and the race is still tied there today. 
   
• History suggests that the President will finish strong in Iowa.  The same American Research Group poll showed Gore leading then-Governor Bush by 7 points in September 2000, although Al Gore went on to win the state by just 4,144 votes (0.3%). 
   
• President Bush visited Davenport today for a rally in traditionally Democratic eastern Iowa.  He attracted over 10,000 supporters, a sign of the strength of his support there. 
   
• Since March 3rd, John Kerry and left-leaning groups have spent more than $5 million in Iowa, compared to BC '04's $3 million.  Kerry and his shadow campaign have outspent Bush-Cheney by almost a two to one margin and the race is still tied.  
   
• The President will share the top of the ballot this year with Sen. Grassley, who has been re-elected four times since 1980, won every time with at least 2/3 of the vote, twice carried all 99 counties in Iowa, and has a broad appeal both with Independents and conservative Democrats.  In his last re-election campaign in 1998, Sen. Grassley won the votes of 73% of Independents and 35% of Democrats in Iowa. 
   
• In 2000, Gore won Iowa by just over 2 votes per precinct.  Since then, Bush-Cheney has built an unprecedented grassroots organization in the state.   The campaign now has over 20,000 volunteers in Iowa, including almost 500 in Davenport itself.  97% of Iowa's precincts (1,934) have been assigned precinct chairs, and volunteers have already contacted almost 80,000 Iowa voters.   

Minnesota: The Ultimate Defensive Play for Democrats

• The Kerry campaign has been forced to defend Minnesota, a state that Democrats have carried in every election since 1972.  Kerry and his shadow campaign have spent more than $6 million since March 3rd, a sign that they are worried about the President's strong position there. 
   
• President Bush and John Kerry are essentially tied in Minnesota.  Recent polling from Strategic Vision (July 20-24) and Mason-Dixon (July 12-14) has shown the President tied with Kerry at 47% and trailing him by just one point, 44% to 45%, respectively.
   
• The recent Mason-Dixon poll also showed that President Bush is viewed more favorably than John Kerry by Minnesota voters.  45% have a favorable opinion of the President and 36% have an unfavorable of him (net +9), compared to 41% who have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 34% who have an unfavorable opinion of him (net +7).  
   
• The economy in Minnesota is strong and growing stronger.  Over the past year, almost 33,000 jobs have been created in Minnesota, including over 8,000 manufacturing jobs.  The state's unemployment rate has dropped to 4.4% -- well below the national average of 5.6%. 
   
• Another reason that the Kerry camp is so concerned about Minnesota is the Bush-Cheney campaign's extraordinary grassroots organization there.  The campaign now has over 48,000 volunteers in Minnesota, including almost 600 in Mankato alone.  Every single precinct in Minnesota (4,120) has a precinct chair, and volunteers have already contacted over 200,000 Minnesota voters.  

Ohio: A Very Close State in 2000, Stays Close in 2004

• President Bush and John Kerry remain locked in a close race in Ohio as well.  The latest Columbus Dispatch poll (July 14-23) shows President Bush holding a narrow lead over John Kerry, 47% to 45%.  The poll also shows that a majority of Ohio voters, 52%, approve of President Bush's job performance.  This is confirmed by the recent Strategic Vision poll (July 17-19), which showed President Bush leading Kerry by 4 points, 48% to 44%. 
   
• In July 2000, the Columbus Dispatch poll showed then-Governor Bush and Al Gore in a tie as well, 41% to 40%, although George Bush later went on to win the state by 4 points, 50% to 46%. 
   
• Since March 3rd, Kerry and left-leaning 527 groups have spent over $18 million in Ohio, compared to BC '04's $10 million.  Kerry and his shadow campaign have outspent Bush-Cheney by almost a 2 to 1 margin, and have nothing to show for it – the race remains essentially tied in Ohio. 
   
• Despite being massively outspent, President Bush is still in a very strong position in Ohio, and one of the reasons is  our tremendous grassroots organization there.  Bush-Cheney '04 now has over 52,000 volunteers in the state.  Almost two-thirds of all precincts in Ohio (7,575) have precincts chairs, including 88% of target precincts (4,964).   Volunteers have already contacted almost 450,000 Ohio voters. 
   

Michigan: Kerry Camp Sees Michigan as Deadlocked - A State Gore Won by 5 Points

• Kerry and his shadow campaign have spent $10 million in Michigan since March 3rd, outspending Bush-Cheney by over $3 million.  Furthermore, in the first three days after the Democratic convention, John Kerry traveled to Michigan.  Both are clear signs that the Kerry campaign has grown nervous about the state.      
   
• President Bush recently visited Marquette for a rally on Michigan's traditionally Democratic Upper Peninsula.  He attracted an audience of over 11,000, a sign that his support is strong in one of Michigan's Democratic strongholds.
   
• Anticipating this close race, Bush-Cheney '04 has built an unprecedented grassroots organization in Michigan.  The campaign now has over 48,000 volunteers in Michigan, including over 400 in the traditionally Democratic city of Saginaw.  Over half of all precincts (2,509) in Michigan have been assigned a precinct chair, including 91% of our target precincts (1,967 chairs).  Volunteers have already contacted almost 230,000 Michigan voters.

[Finalapproach29er]

Marine I just flew over my house!!

I live 20 miles sw of MSP. Cool formation.

Big helo protecting his left flank. Cool.

[gilliam]

If you are in those states you need to start working for Bush NOW!

http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm

[Linux4Life]

Check this out:


http://www.swiftvets.com

[gilliam]

<a href="http://www.swiftvets.com>http://www.swiftvets.com</a></i><P> I hope you all are sending this to every DEMOCRAT you know.<P>

[gilliam]

I hope you all are sending this to every DEMOCRAT you know.

[Tamzee]

Pennsylvania, too.

Very close state in the polls now, went to Gore by a tiny margin in 2000, has almost as many electoral votes as Florida.