Posted on 07/27/2004 11:29:20 AM PDT by RWR8189
TO: Campaign Leadership
FROM: Matthew Dowd, BC’04 Chief Strategist
RE: The most recent Washington Post-ABC
News Poll
DATE: 7/27/04
ABC News/Washington Post Poll
July 22-25, 2004. N=1,202 adults, 974 RVs.
At the start of the Democratic National Convention, President Bush and John Kerry are locked in a tight race. President Bush now holds a 1-point lead over John Kerry among registered voters, 49% to 48%. The closeness of the race is confirmed by the recent FOX News poll, which showed the race tied at 44%. While history suggests that Kerry should still receive a "bounce" of up to 15 points from his convention, it is clear that his selection of John Edwards has had little effect on the race.
President Bush's base support remains stronger than John Kerry's. 88% of the President's supporters say that they "strongly" support him, compared to just 72% of Kerry's who say the same. Furthermore, 81% of President Bush's supporters say that their vote is more for Bush than against Kerry, while just 41% of Kerry’s supporters say their vote is more for Kerry than against Bush.
The more voters get to know John Kerry, the less they like him. Kerry’s net favorability ratings have dropped from a +28 in March to a +9 today, an overall loss of 19 points. Over the same period of time, President Bush’s net favorability ratings have risen from a +1 in March to a +11 today, an overall gain of 10 points.
Voters also prefer President Bush over John Kerry on key presidential attributes. Americans believe that President Bush is more honest than Kerry, that he is a stronger leader, is more likely to take a position and stick with it, will make the country safer and more secure, and shares their values.
See Chart 1
Voters recognize the President's optimism. 72% of voters say that President Bush is an optimist, compared to 55% who say the same of Kerry.
More Americans approve of President Bush's job performance. 50% of Americans now approve of the job President Bush is doing, a net increase of 5 points since early July. This rise is confirmed by similar increases in the President's job approval in the Gallup (up net +4 since early July, now at 49%) and NBC News/Wall Street Journal (up net +6 since late June, now at 48%) polls. His job approval rating is now almost identical to President Reagan's 52% rating in July 1984. President Bush's job approval has also increased across the board on key issues.
See Chart 2
Voters increasingly trust President Bush more than John Kerry to handle these important issues. By large margins, Americans trust President Bush more than John Kerry to handle the War on Terror, Iraq, and taxes. Since July 11th, President Bush has gained ground against John Kerry on every issue tested in the Washington Post poll.
See Chart 3
Kerry may be the first candidate in history to see his poll ratings drop during his convention. They need to get him back on ice and into storage ASAP.
Bingo.
They've already called for a campaign blackout in August.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1179317/posts
The popular vote is a meaningless measure of the voter's choice.
When the leftwing media has to start publicizing Registered voter polls to keep it inside the MOE, things are looking good.
Past experience shows that the more people know about John Kerry, the less they like him. Kerry's best bet to avoid a "negative bounce" is to miss his speech. Teresa will excuse him, saying that he felt it was more important to read the 9/11 Report, or get his Botox touched up.
So, their response to a Washington Post/ABC poll showing that voters want to hear a clear message from Kerry on who he is and what he would do as President is to 'go dark' for a month? Why not just change his last name to 'Not Bush' and get it over with?
A chance to develop bombshells that no one will have time to dismantle?
TDISDS.
Kerry's best bet to avoid a "negative bounce" is to miss his speech
LOL!! BEST SUGGESTION OF THE YEAR
"In 6 months, I have not met one single voter, not one, who voted for Gore in 2000, and who plans today to vote for Bush. I have, however, met dozens, if not more people, who voted for Bush, and now regret it, or are at least considering Kerry."
Depends on who and where you meet people. I just talked to a friend from Boston. He says, 'People in Massachusetts think Kerry is a "nutcase". He says he doesn't know anyone who is going to vote for him. Lots of people in Pennsylvania, that I have met, didn't vote in 2000, but are voting this time...."for Bush"!
Go figure!
George Bush seems to be getting a "bump" from the Democrat convention?
His larger problem will be in Maine and especially New Hampshire, where despite his supposed lead in both of those states, there are many folks who'll make it a point to vote against him simply because he hails from the Bay State, and there have been too many bad experiences with folks from the Bay State.
I know people who voted for Gore who are working in the Bush campaign.
That's encouraging.
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