Free Republic

NEW YORK — Hedge fund titan Leon Cooperman said he’s concerned about a move to the left in the political landscape, which could harm the economy and the stock market. “There’s unquestionably a shift to the left in this country,” Cooperman said at the Delivering Alpha conference presented by CNBC and Institutional Investor. “They won’t open the stock market if Elizabeth Warren is the next president,” he joked. “You don’t make the poor people rich by making rich people poor,” Cooperman said. “The Democratic Party seems to be leaning towards the left on policies, which is very harmful for the...

Economist Arthur Laffer weighed in on the trade talks between the United States and China, touting what a deal between the two could do for the market. Laffer agreed with President Donald Trump’s assertion that such a deal could boost the Dow Jones Industrial Average 10,000 points. “I think he’s right about 10,000 on the Dow,” Laffer told Fox Business Network “Mornings” host Maria Bartiromo on Thursday. “I mean, that’s a pull out of a hat, but frankly, it’s a huge thing for that because it starts having a dynamic consequence with the rest of the world — Japan, South...

The Dow is down 573 points perhaps on the news that Representative Seth Moulton, whoever that may be, has dropped out of the 2020 Presidential Race!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 23, 2019

The critical spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield inverted Friday after President Donald Trump characterized China President Xi Jinping as an “enemy” and ordered American companies to steer clear of trade with Beijing. The president tweeted Friday morning that he was ordering “our great American companies” to “immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA.”

Last week, two events of smallish note occurred. On August 13 and 14, the stock market suffered its biggest losses of the year. Also, an “inverted-yield curve� formed. The yield on the 10-year bond briefly slipped below the yield on the two-year note. By day’s end, the interest rates had righted themselves. I didn’t realize it at the time, but the combination of these events foretold the end of the Trump economy. By the next day, the news was everywhere. New York Times columnist Paul Krugman announced “Trump Boom to Trump Gloom� and added that “…an inverted-yield curve… predicted...

Let us not let the left-wing media talk us into a recession. Make no mistake: they are eager to do so. For months the liberal press has echoed Democrats’ hand-wringing on the campaign trail, repeating Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s unwarranted warnings about debt levels for instance, or former Vice President Joe Biden’s alarms about how President Trump’s trade confrontation with China is hurting consumers. After all, it’s hard to call for a revolution if the people are happy. Less enthusiastically reported have been record lows in unemployment and accelerating wage increases – news that might buoy consumer sentiment, and, not unimportantly,...

Finally an economic analyst gets prime-time media pundits to listen as he describes the fundamental difference between the U.S. “Economy� (Main Street) and the U.S. “Markets� (Wall Street). Charles Payne understands most of this, but El-Erian has it nailed.Allianz Group chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, accurately describes what is happening in an era where deglobalization is taking place. The U.S. economy is strong; however, the multinationals on Wall Street -invested overseas- are exposed. Thus there’s a disconnect and accompanying market volatility.This is well worth watching because this is the first well-regarded financial pundit that is speaking truth to Wall...

If you’ve been gleaning financial headlines, you may be asking, what is this “inversion of the yield curve” thing and why is it so scary? An inverted yield curve marks a point on a chart where short-term investments in U.S. Treasury bonds pay more than long-term ones. When they flip, or invert, it’s widely regarded as a bad sign for the economy. Getting more interest for a short-term than a long-term investment appears to make zero economic sense. Go to any bank and you will likely get a lower interest rate on a 6-month CD than you would on a...

(Kitco News) - Chinese central bank continued to stock up on gold for the eighth month in a row in July amid escalating trade war tensions, according to the data from the People's Bank of China (PBOC). The country’s gold reserves rose to 62.26 million ounces from June’s 61.94 million ounces, which equated to about 10 tons bought in July, the central bank’s data showed. The bank has been purchasing gold on a monthly basis since December, increasing the value of total gold reserves as of the end of July to $88.9 billion. The central bank’s move showed China’s desire...

Moody's Capital Markets Chief Economist John Lonski on the U.S. trade tensions with China and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. The yield curve is blaring a recession warning. The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.

The superrich blueprint to navigating this hairy stock market: Tap the brakes and get ready to pounce when it all goes to hell. And by the looks of Monday’s action, hell might not be too far away. In the first quarter, Tiger 21, a coalition of 750 members worth in excess of $75 billion, raised cash to levels not seen since 2013. Not much changed in the second quarter in terms of keeping powder dry. The group’s holding 12% in cash. What has changed, however, is that these deep-pocketed investors, in the call of the day, are continuing to move...

Wall Street’s most widely watched gauge of the yield curve’s slope, the spread between the 2-year Treasury note yield and the 10-year inverted Wednesday morning, flashing the clearest signal to date that the U.S. is set to face an economic recession, but that doesn’t have to mean doom and gloom for stock investors. The U.S. 2-year Treasury note yield The so-called inversion of the main measure of the yield curve, or a negative spread between short-term and long-term yields, has preceded the last seven recessions.Check out: 5 things investors need to know about an inverted yield curveHowever, history shows that...

In the hours before American equity markets open for trading, China sent a huge sell signal to the traders on Wall Street. Bloomberg reports: China called planned U.S. tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese goods a violation of accords reached by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, signaling an American move earlier this week to delay some of those levies was not enough to stave off retaliation. The effects already are manifest: European stocks declined and U.S. equity futures fell. The Stoxx Europe 600 index moved lower while the three main American equity contracts dropped. President Trump...

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen said the markets may be wrong this time in trusting the yield curve inversion as a recession indicator. “Historically, it has been a pretty good signal of recession, and it think that’s when markets pay attention to it, but I would really urge that on this occasion it may be a less good signal,” Yellen said on Fox Business Network. “The reason for that is there are a number of factors other than market expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields.” The yield on the benchmark 10-year...

Stocks plunged on Wednesday after the yield on 30-year Treasurys dropped to a new low and the spread between two- and 10-year Treasurys inverted for the first time since 2007. The inversion of the yield curve compounded concerns of an economic slowdown in the US, as the occurrence has preceded each of the last seven recessions. Disappointing economic data from Germany and China caused the rally in global bonds as investors shifted away from equities toward the relative-safety of long-term treasuries. Visit the Markets Insider homepage for more stories. US stocks plummeted on Wednesday after the spread between two- and 10-year Treasury...

The Dow slid more than 400 points Wednesday after the bond market, for the first time in over a decade, flashed a warning signal that has an eerily accurate track record for predicting recessions.

China priced the yuan's reference rate at 6.9683 to the dollar on Tuesday, a hair above the key 7:1 ratio to the US dollar. Although that was the weakest level for the yuan in 11 years, many Wall Street investors feared China would price the yuan below that psychological 7:1 barrier. The managed yuan continued to slide Tuesday, but the pace of its decline slowed. One dollar last bought $7.0200 yuan in China, anld 7.0490 yuan in the offshore market, where the currency trades more freely China devalued its currency on Monday, leading it to fall below a key threshold...

Last week, President Trump threatened to place a 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports on September 1 unless trade talks with China showed more sign of progress. Already, America has tariffed $250 billion of Chinese imports at 25 percent, and if tariffs are placed on the $300 billion basket of goods, this would increase tariffs on all Chinese imports to the United States.President Trump is unhappy that talks last week in Beijing between Chinese officials and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin broke down. He’s also unhappy that China hasn’t...

The Cold, Hard Math Says Netflix Could Crash 70% It’s official... it’s the beginning of the end for Netflix (NFLX). As you may have heard, the online video company made a troubling announcement... This quarter, for the first time ever, it lost American subscribers. Hundreds of thousands of them. The stock plunged more than 11% on the news. I’ve been “sounding the alarm” on Netflix’s troubled business since last July when its stock was trading above $400.

A few years ago, Mark Carney, a former Goldman Sachs director who now leads the Bank of England, sounded a warning. Global warming, he said, could send the world economy spiraling into another 2008-like crisis. He called for central banks to act aggressively and immediately to reduce the risk of climate-related catastrophe, taking the warming planet as seriously as they would a cooling economy. Adam Tooze, a history professor at Columbia University, knows quite a bit about central banks - and the Great Recession. Last year he published Crashed, an award-winning account of the 2008 collapse and its aftermath. Now,...