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VA-05: Democrat Perriello in Peril, One More House Seat Poised for Republican Take-Away: In an election for US House of Representatives in Virginia's 5th Congressional District today, 07/20/10, Republican State Senator Robert Hurt defeats incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello 58% to 35%, according to this latest exclusive WDBJ-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. The seat is one of many Republicans hope to capture in November 2010. 39 "take-aways" are needed for Republicans to capture control of the US House of Representatives. Perriello, who defeated 6-term Republican Virgil Goode by 727 votes in 2008, today trails among most demographic groups. Among men, Hurt...

Not a typo. I've been harping on my 1994-is-roughly-the-median-result for Republicans this cycle theme for most of the year. The latest SurveyUSA poll of Virginia's Fifth Congressional is more than consistent with this theory. SurveyUSA shows Republican Rob Hurt leading Freshman Democrat Tom Perriello by an astonishing 58%-35% margin. Now, Perriello was something of a surprise winner in 2008, and it was assumed that he'd have a tough race. But his district is "only" R+5, Obama almost carried it, and it is much more heavily Democratic at the local level. There are 41 Democrats in districts with more Republican PVIs....