Free Republic

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill" would cut taxes by $3.7 trillion while raising deficits by $2.4 trillion over a decade. The CBO makes projections based on information provided by Congress when considering legislation that includes spending and taxes. But is it always right? Not according to Larry Kudlow. During his show on Thursday, Kudlow outlined how the Congressional Budget Office missed projections related to the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act, Trump’s signature bill in his first term. "The current cost of the 2017 tax cuts should be zero. Why should they...

One of the most striking things about following this campaign is the fact that election projections are all over the place. I was chatting with a political science professor friend of mine, and he was projecting a 1980 Reagan-style victory for Trump--an assessment I tend to agree with--while the online analysts are showing a dead heat with a slight advantage to Kamala Harris. While Nate Silver has been more Trump-bullish, even his latest projection shows a very slight advantage for Harris. The answer, of course, comes down to the polls and what you take away from them. Most of the...

The massive "doomsday glacier" known for its rapid destabilization is undergoing a "vigorous ice melt" that scientists say could reshape sea level rise projections. In a new study, glaciologists from the University of California, Irvine, found that warm, high-pressure ocean water is seeping beneath West Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, making it more vulnerable to melting than previously thought. The glacier is roughly 80 miles across, the widest on Earth. It packs so much ice that if it were to completely collapse, it could singlehandedly cause global sea levels to rise by more than two feet, according to the International Thwaites Glacier...

On Friday’s “CNN Newsroom,” White House Senior Adviser and Infrastructure Implementation Coordinator Mitch Landrieu responded to concerns about the economy from people like Larry Summers, Jamie Dimon, and Elon Musk by stating that “We don’t need expectations.” Because current numbers are good. He added that while inflation is a challenge, “the president’s economic policies have put us in a very strong position to move through this very difficult time.”

Insider and Decision Desk HQ are projecting that Gov. Gavin Newsom will survive the California gubernatorial recall. Decision Desk called the race at 8:21 p.m. PT and 11:21 p.m ET. Per this projected call Newsom will remain governor of California.

At least 10 state health departments in the United States have detected the highly contagious B.1.1.7 variant of COVD-19, the disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, according to a new report. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in an update on Jan. 15, said that a “more highly transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7, has been detected in 10 U.S. states.” SARS-CoV-2 is another name for the coronavirus that is believed to have emerged in Wuhan, China, in late 2019. Health officials warned that models have shown the B.1.1.7 strain of the virus has the...

COVID-19 has proven to be a brutal flu for those unlucky enough to get it. Any new disease that’s successfully left animals behind for human-to-human transmission is highly risky. Nevertheless, current insanity gripping the world is based upon highly dubious computer models, making those models as dangerous as a virus. On March 8, MSNBC’s Chris Hayes attacked Trump for trying to manipulate downwards the expert projections about COVID-19 deaths. One month later, Hayes was back, attacking Trump for intentionally manipulating the numbers upwards: The most cynical interpretation of all this, one I can't quite bring myself to accept, is they rolled...

Updated model projects far fewer hospital beds will be needed to cope with the CCP virus epidemic in the United States. But the model still doesn’t match reality as there were overall fewer CCP virus hospitalizations than the model assumed already on the day the updated version was released. The model was developed by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). It’s previous update from April 1 predicted the country would need 120,000 to 430,000 hospital beds for the virus patients on April 16, when it indicated the epidemic was to peak. Some online commentators and...

BAM! (Ben Shapiro Explains How)

The Congressional Budget Office and other such experts of public finance routinely severely underestimate the cost of major government programs such as Medicare, Social Security, student loans, government pensions, lifetime health benefits for government employees, and Obamacare. They also miss estimates on "smaller" government projects (we're still talking billions here) such as the "big dig" in Boston and the bullet train in California. They're always underestimating these costs. Why are we always so broke at most government entities? Why do these costs always overshoot their budgets? The short answer is that politicians and bureaucrats routinely underestimate the costs of all...

In January 2016, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected economic growth for 2018 to be 2.3% and for 2019 to be 1.9%   Now the office projects that GDP will expand by 3.3% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019, and then it will slow down.  Why would anyone believe these people's long-term projections when they are frequently so far off on their short-term projections?  Why do the media report the numbers as if they were gospel when they are just guesses? The tax cuts for individuals and corporations are all still in effect until 2025, so why the massive slowdown after just one...

Trump 55, Cruz 29, Kasich 12

I have received a number of FReepmails asking for an update on my projections, in light of recent news. Here it is. Please read and understand the following notes: Because the rate of transmission differs in each country, the model now makes individual projections based on a Daily Transmission Rate (DTR) calculated for each country, and adds them together to produce the numbers presented below. While the model can use any date range, I've used the the range from 9/1/14 to 10/1/14. In other words, the DTR for each country is based on the number of cases on September 1...

U.S. energy exports, much of which come from the Houston region, represent a large chunk of the nation's overall export growth in the coming years, according to a new national HSBC Bank USA report. The banking report notes that Houston will see an additional job creation surge going forward partially because of energy exports that target emerging foreign markets. HSBC specially mentions that "chemical plant expansions and liquefied natural gas terminal upgrades, coupled with the opening of Mexico's energy industry to foreign investment, will result in a new export boom for Houston and will create more than 55,000 new jobs."...

My User Name on Free Republic is Scouter. I have been a member of Free Republic for 14 years. I don't write many vanity posts, but I consider this one to be very important. I had been working on this post for several days, and I was planning to post it tomorrow. But the Drudge Report headline CDC: PREPARE FOR EBOLA has moved up my timeline. I have developed a model for making future projections of the number of Ebola cases. I have undertaken this project for several reasons. First, out of simple professional curiosity. Second, I believe the time...

Italy's new technocrat government on Sunday night adopted an aggressive €30bn (£26bn) austerity package in a bid to stave off the crisis enveloping the country. Prime minister Mario Monti’s coalition gave the green light to the package of tax hikes and pension reforms after bringing forward a cabinet meeting scheduled for today. “We have had to share the sacrifices, but we have made great efforts to share them fairly,” Mr Monti said. The wide-ranging budget cuts are aimed at shoring up Italy’s strained finances and stemming the sovereign debt crisis that threatens to engulf the eurozone. Mr Monti, who said...

As the Federal Reserve downgraded its economic projections, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke admitted that the central bank's board was in the same distressing position as the average American family — frustrated by the slow recovery, limited in its options and largely reduced to hoping for the best. "I certainly understand that many people are dissatisfied with the state of the economy," Bernanke told reporters Wednesday when asked about the Occupy Wall Street protests. "I'm dissatisfied with the state of the economy." The Fed noted in its official statement after its two-day meeting that economic conditions strengthened somewhat from July through...

Canadian voters have delivered Conservative Leader Stephen Harper his first majority government after five years of governing in a minority situation, CBC News projects. Meanwhile NDP Leader Jack Layton was set to become Official Opposition leader. The NDP, according to projections, made a major breakthrough and appeared to have nearly tripled their seat count, while the Liberals — often touted as Canada's "natural governing party" — were poised to suffer a stunning historic electoral loss and place third. As of 10:49 p.m. EST, the Conservatives were elected or leading in 164 seats, followed by the NDP with 103, Liberals with...

The global sea level looks set to rise far higher than forecast because of changes in the polar ice-sheets, a team of researchers has suggested. Scientists at a climate change summit in Copenhagen said earlier UN estimates were too low and that sea levels could rise by a metre or more by 2100. The projections did not include the potential impact of polar melting and ice breaking off, they added. The implications for millions of people would be "severe", they warned. Ten per cent of the world's population - about 600 million people - live in low-lying areas. The UN's...

As Colorado, other states and federal officials increasingly look to toll roads to spur growth or clear clogged highways, a review of 23 new turnpikes nationwide shows that a clear majority are failing to meet revenue projections to justify their costs. Even with adjustments for the break-in period in the opening years, 86 percent of new toll roads in eight states failed to meet expectations in their first full year. By year three, 75 percent - 15 of the 20 that have been open that long - remained poor performers. Despite that history of flawed forecasts, Colorado officials are promoting...