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They don't know everything.
Posted on 04/07/2020 10:44:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Updated model projects far fewer hospital beds will be needed to cope with the CCP virus epidemic in the United States. But the model still doesn’t match reality as there were overall fewer CCP virus hospitalizations than the model assumed already on the day the updated version was released.
The model was developed by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). It’s previous update from April 1 predicted the country would need 120,000 to 430,000 hospital beds for the virus patients on April 16, when it indicated the epidemic was to peak.
Some online commentators and media, including The Epoch Times, pointed out the projections didn’t measure up to reality, massively overstating the hospital capacity needs in most states.
The projections are important because the main point of current stringent government interventions is to “flatten the curve” of new infections, so the healthcare system doesn’t get overwhelmed with a sudden influx of patients. If the government expects unrealistic number of patients, the mitigation measures may be off too. Indeed, the model was repeatedly referenced by Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, during President Donald Trump’s daily press briefings on the pandemic.
On the evening of April 5, IHME updated its model, slashing the peak expected hospital capacity needs to about 73,000-285,000 beds, while moving the peak to April 15.
The updated model still expected the country would need roughly between 8,000 and 96,000 extra hospital beds at the peak of the epidemic.
But the model again failed to match reality.
Already on April 5, of the 18 states with available daily hospitalization data, the model’s mean estimates overshot for 15 of them. Even the low bound of the model’s estimates was too high for 10 of the states.
(Excerpt) Read more at theepochtimes.com ...
#OUAN Open up America Now!!
They don't know everything.
Yeah. Hospitals are laying off. And this is very informative and revealing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVFC5n-KnuA
This is already outdated. Please post today’s numbers not from three days ago
Hospitals has lost all of the regular business thet normally do
RE: This is already outdated. Please post today’s numbers not from three days ago
Great, as soon as I post the latest numbers,they are OUTDATED too.
This article was written simply to show how the actual numbers don’t match the projections by a HUGE MARGIN. That’s all.
“scientists’ and their bogus slapped together computer ‘models’
people dont get it
scientists and doctors and just people.
they are not infallible.
they hold incorrect ideas and beliefs.
they are biased individuals that do let those biases affect their professional ‘work’
these people have backtracked all over themselves so much you can see the treadmarks on their faces.
“This is already outdated. Please post today’s numbers not from three days ago”
What’s outdated? What numbers are you saying are from three days ago?
Hospitals has lost all of the regular business thet normally do
I just got a facebook message from a friend about their 83 yar old grandmother dying of this virus and then this long diatribe about how this is “serious”.
I didn’t respond becuse what I have to say would not be productive. At 83 people die of dozens of maladies common to end of life conditions, but people don’t turn it into a political statement. “People, we need to take pneumonia seriously.” Or, “people, we need to take heart disease seriously.” Or, “people, we need to take the flu seriously.”
If you get my drift.
This thing is a big nothingburger for people under 60, unless they are the ones that get a serious case, just like flu victims.
NYC data via Cuomo is the left’s holdout lie to keep the lockdown and economy closed. They are likely assigning values for deaths to CV19 no matter what the person died of. I’d wager heart disease and other death causes have dropped. Someone send this to Rush ..I’m gonna send it to the WH PDJT.
id you see this?
The panic and hysteria followed an inverted V pattern. We started out with “like the flu” to only skyrocket to “TEOTWAWKI” and we are now plummeting back down to “maybe somewhat worse than the flu”.
But,
If it saves just one life...
And when the new one doesn’t work they’ll publish a new one. They know how to do this through all their practice modeling Climate Change/Global Warming.
THIS is why I attacked FReepers who were making their own models during the early stages.
There was no reliable information available. Nobody knew how many people were infected and the true death rate.
As we saw in Italy...and now in the US...many of the deaths are due to other conditions, but because they tested positive, the Wuhan virus is put on the death certificate.
There is no way to make a model of something that is not understood nor accurately counted.
And thats what they’ve been doing all along this process.
NYC data via Cuomo is the left’s holdout lie to keep the lockdown and economy closed. They are likely assigning values for deaths to CV19 no matter what the person died of. I’d wager heart disease and other death causes have dropped. Someone send this to Rush ..I’m gonna send it to the WH PDJT.
...
I just sent this to rush I had trouble finding his email address. I would wager that the number of deaths and other categories is dropping over the same. Of time while cv-19 is going up. If somebody has a fever at time of death I’d be willing to bet they’re marking cv-19 on purpose.
Maybe Madam Ruth could help?
Parody of:
Love Potion # 9
The Searchers
Corona Potion #9
I took my troubles down to Madame Ruth
You know that gypsy with the gold-capped tooth
She’s got a pad down on Thirty-Fourth and Vine
Selling little bottles of Corona potion number 9
I told her that I was a flop and sick
I’ve been this way since 1996
She looked at my palm and she made a magic sign
She said “What you need is Corona potion number 9
She bent down and turned around and gave me a wink
She said “I’m gonna make it up right here in the sink”
It smelled like turpentine, it looked like Indian ink
I held my nose, I closed my eyes, I took a drink
I didn’t know if it was day or night
I started distancing from everything in sight
But when I bumped a cop down on Thirty-Fourth and Vine
He broke my little bottle of Corona potion number 9…
Drs have no special skills in logic or statistical reasoning then any other person.
Just about anyone can be taught statistical thinking and logic which can be applied to any field of expertise. I am not an epidemiologist but I can evaluate a data set and more importantly analyze the terms used and define them, critique the soundness of the data and the methods used to gather it, and place it in a basic statistical frame work. It isn’t hard but it’s not as popular as emotion and speculation.
How many people know that some of temperature sensors used to measure global warming are located in asphalt parking lots? You don’t need to be a climatologists to know that those data points are bogus. But you do need to know how to dig deep and be skeptical.
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