Once a government program starts, no matter whether it works or not, it is essentially on automatic pilot because a special interest benefits and if anyone ever wants to stop or even reduce a program we see sob stories from the media.
Posted on 08/08/2019 7:27:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The Congressional Budget Office and other such experts of public finance routinely severely underestimate the cost of major government programs such as Medicare, Social Security, student loans, government pensions, lifetime health benefits for government employees, and Obamacare.
They also miss estimates on "smaller" government projects (we're still talking billions here) such as the "big dig" in Boston and the bullet train in California.
They're always underestimating these costs. Why are we always so broke at most government entities? Why do these costs always overshoot their budgets? The short answer is that politicians and bureaucrats routinely underestimate the costs of all government programs and then they overestimate the revenue from the new taxes that they propose to pay for the programs. Through abject ignorance or intentional malfeasance, they do not project that taking additional money out of businesses and individuals’ pockets through higher taxes and additional regulations will slow down the economy. Then as costs come in higher than expected and revenues lower than projected, they just borrow more and tax more, furthering the vicious cycle. The greedy government continues to get bigger and more powerful while this and future generations suffer. But politicians are out buying votes with more “free” stuff. The public are pawns.
All federal government projects cost much more than they should because Democrats cater to their special interests. These laws -- they include prevailing wage statutes and other non-market carve-outs -- have oppressed taxpayers for around 90 years, but they are still there because of Democrats.
So, when Democrats give an estimate of the future costs of Medicare for all, or a public option, or else the big green deal, everyone should realize they are just made-up numbers and most are a significant underestimate.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Once a government program starts, no matter whether it works or not, it is essentially on automatic pilot because a special interest benefits and if anyone ever wants to stop or even reduce a program we see sob stories from the media.
Estimates are always wrong because they don’t take the kick-backs and theft into account. They are added later and the figures adjusted up.
Because politicians lie. It’s much easier to get a million dollars today and come back for six million more later claiming the project can’t be shuttered at this late date. Plus, everyone and their cousin is dipping into the funds to pad their wallets. And the biggest is because it’s free money.
It’s not strictly a governmental thing; I think we all do it, even in our personal lives. And often with the very best of intents. For example, if we really knew the cost of raising children, would we be so eager to create our families?
Having worked both public and private gigs over the past 40 (!!!) years, I’ve also observed that “estimated” costs are kept low in order that proposals might seem more attractive and compete more successfully come budget time. HOWEVER, it is FAR more common in the public sector; spending other people’s money, with little fear of repercussions in the face of failure, DOES tend to darken the tint of one’s rose-colored glasses.... The idiocy of romantic political dreams also is a huge factor....
“We have to pass it, to see what’s in it.”
Any textbook on Public Choice Economics will tell you why!
A more fun way of understanding is watch the old 1990s British TV series “Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister”.
Every episode is a lesson in public choice economics.
Margret Thatcher’s favorite TV show.
Ahhhhh....I miss the Gipper!
Now stop to consider how few if any government programs work as advertised. Then stop to think of how Red Flag laws and their “temporary” confiscation of weapons will actually work. Very scary indeed.
other people’s money
“severely underestimate the cost of major government programs “
Not to mention building things that don’t function properly..I always thought only the FRENCH could screw up a carrier..BUT..we now own that title with the Gerald Ford...
There is ZERO accountability for performance in government including bringing something in on time and budget. Because so many government programs are multi-decades long (coming up on a full century for Social Security now), the originators have moved on, retired or died. So there is no way to hold them to account.
If we were honest about the abysmal performance of government and horrendous cost/benefit results, we would shut down 90% of government. But so many people are happy to slog through their miserable lives in slums with crumbs from the government that it can’t be shut down.
Federal budgets fail to account for waste, inefficiency, bribes, kickbacks and skimming.
One word: Graft!
By law, the fine folks at the CBO can’t consider the effects of policies, such as tax increases reducing/chasing away taxable dollars.
In the 1980s, iirc, a TX Rep (a college prof in the dismal science, Phil Gramm, maybe?), illustrated the lunacy by putting in a request to the CBO on the revenue generated by a tax rate of 100%.
The CBO responded with the projected next year’s GNP(?) or the like, completely ignoring the effects of what really was going to happen.
And since you reference the Gipper, I heard a story that RR declined movie roles once his income hit the $200K mark or thereabouts, because of the confiscatory tax code of the time on incremental income about that level.
Estimates are always very low because the real cost would never get the votes.
Two reasons:
1. Government inefficiency: Inefficient bureaucrats are surrounded by other inefficient bureaucrat, and as a result they don’t realize their inefficiencies..
2. Government bureaucrats have no skin in the game: They don’t have to answer to shareholders; they lack the profit motive that drives efficiency and budgetary restraint; there are no consequences for delays and cost over-runs; they design cheap projects for approval and then, after the project is approved, they make expensive design changes to get what they really wanted in the first place; they are only required to work 10:00 am to 2:00 pm with an hour lunch break, even if the project is behind schedule...
I can go on and on, and I speak from experience dealing with government bureaucrats on large construction projects.
I am reminded of the movie,"Charlie Wilson's War."
Because the cost estimates never matter. No matter what the cost they simply will borrow more and pay it!
Why are estimates wrong?
Because crack and hookers aren’t free!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.