Once a government program starts, no matter whether it works or not, it is essentially on automatic pilot because a special interest benefits and if anyone ever wants to stop or even reduce a program we see sob stories from the media.
Once a government program starts, no matter whether it works or not, it is essentially on automatic pilot because a special interest benefits and if anyone ever wants to stop or even reduce a program we see sob stories from the media.
Estimates are always wrong because they don’t take the kick-backs and theft into account. They are added later and the figures adjusted up.
Because politicians lie. It’s much easier to get a million dollars today and come back for six million more later claiming the project can’t be shuttered at this late date. Plus, everyone and their cousin is dipping into the funds to pad their wallets. And the biggest is because it’s free money.
Any textbook on Public Choice Economics will tell you why!
A more fun way of understanding is watch the old 1990s British TV series “Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister”.
Every episode is a lesson in public choice economics.
Margret Thatcher’s favorite TV show.
Ahhhhh....I miss the Gipper!
Now stop to consider how few if any government programs work as advertised. Then stop to think of how Red Flag laws and their “temporary” confiscation of weapons will actually work. Very scary indeed.
other people’s money
“severely underestimate the cost of major government programs “
Not to mention building things that don’t function properly..I always thought only the FRENCH could screw up a carrier..BUT..we now own that title with the Gerald Ford...
Federal budgets fail to account for waste, inefficiency, bribes, kickbacks and skimming.
One word: Graft!
By law, the fine folks at the CBO can’t consider the effects of policies, such as tax increases reducing/chasing away taxable dollars.
In the 1980s, iirc, a TX Rep (a college prof in the dismal science, Phil Gramm, maybe?), illustrated the lunacy by putting in a request to the CBO on the revenue generated by a tax rate of 100%.
The CBO responded with the projected next year’s GNP(?) or the like, completely ignoring the effects of what really was going to happen.
And since you reference the Gipper, I heard a story that RR declined movie roles once his income hit the $200K mark or thereabouts, because of the confiscatory tax code of the time on incremental income about that level.
Estimates are always very low because the real cost would never get the votes.
Two reasons:
1. Government inefficiency: Inefficient bureaucrats are surrounded by other inefficient bureaucrat, and as a result they don’t realize their inefficiencies..
2. Government bureaucrats have no skin in the game: They don’t have to answer to shareholders; they lack the profit motive that drives efficiency and budgetary restraint; there are no consequences for delays and cost over-runs; they design cheap projects for approval and then, after the project is approved, they make expensive design changes to get what they really wanted in the first place; they are only required to work 10:00 am to 2:00 pm with an hour lunch break, even if the project is behind schedule...
I can go on and on, and I speak from experience dealing with government bureaucrats on large construction projects.
Because the cost estimates never matter. No matter what the cost they simply will borrow more and pay it!
Why are estimates wrong?
Because crack and hookers aren’t free!
Last I read was that CBO projections were correct 50% of the time. Meaning we could fire them all and just hand a monkey a turd and let him throw it at a mocked up wall of percentages or numbers.
Typically $10 Billion.
So, a politician's support for a project is contingent on the "cost" not exceeding that threshold.
Reality plays no role in any cost or schedule estimate.
“That does seem to be the ultimate goal of Democrats, to make the rich poorer instead of lifting others up.”
Absolutely. Their motto is “worse is better.” Americans were too happy and virtuous to flip the country communist, so they embarked on their “long march through the institutions,” and set out to degrade America sufficiently that Americans would accept communism.
The measure of their success is the election and reelection of the Magic Negro from Nairobi.
The government is a sow with a giant teet that never runs dry.