OPEC+ preparing another production quota increase for November, while Russian seaborne exports declined further (Ust-Luga and Primorsk export terminals operating at only half capacity).
Conditions are well set to force Russian wells to get capped, and suffer freeze damage early this Winter. Their system is backed up, constrained by how much they can ship out or refine, and lacking robust storage capacity.
OilPrice.com (29 Sep):
“Crude futures slumped on Monday, extending their biggest single-day slide in weeks as OPEC+ signaled it may press ahead with another round of output increases...
Brent crude was at $67.88 per barrel, a drop of $2.25 or 3.21%, while West Texas Intermediate fell $2.37 to $63.35, down 3.61%. The sell-off came as reports circulated that OPEC+ ministers are preparing to add fresh barrels in November...
...new tanker-tracking data from Kpler indicated Russia’s September seaborne crude exports slid to 2.96 million barrels per day, the lowest since April 2022. The steepest drops came from Baltic and Black Sea loadings...
...Seasonal demand shifts are adding another layer, with refiners in Asia trimming spot activity while U.S. product consumption moves into its autumn lull.”