Free Republic

Labor Day to Election Day patterns from past elections help put the current situation in contextPRINCETON, NJ -- The fundamentals of the presidential race did not change dramatically as a result of the Republican convention. George W. Bush had a slight lead over John Kerry among likely voters prior to the convention. He has now edged further ahead.A question of keen interest to election observers focuses on the possibility of significant or dramatic change from this point forward. Bush is ahead of Kerry by seven points among likely voters. What is the probability that Kerry can come from behind and...

This is an examination of Gallup polls in August for the last 7 Presidential elections that involve incumbent Presidents.  The approval rating for the President and the horserace numbers will be included.The range for this data is 1972-2004.I will update approval ratings every month until the election.Note: During the 1970s Presidential approval ratings were not measured between the months of June and November. In a poll conducted 6/20/1972-6/20/1972, Richard Nixon measured a 56% approval rating.In a mid August poll Richard Nixon led challenger George McGovern by a margin of 64%-30% In a poll conducted 6/8/1976-6/8/1976, Gerald Ford measured a 45% approval rating.In...