Posted on 08/13/2004 3:29:29 PM PDT by RWR8189
This is an examination of Gallup polls in August for the last 7 Presidential elections that involve incumbent Presidents. The approval rating for the President and the horserace numbers will be included.
The range for this data is 1972-2004.
I will update approval ratings every month until the election.
Note: During the 1970s Presidential approval ratings were not measured between the months of June and November.
In a poll conducted 6/20/1972-6/20/1972, Richard Nixon measured a 56% approval rating.
In a mid August poll Richard Nixon led challenger George McGovern by a margin of 64%-30%
In a poll conducted 6/8/1976-6/8/1976, Gerald Ford measured a 45% approval rating.
In August polling, the challenger Jimmy Carter led Gerald Ford by a margin of 51%-36%.
In a poll conducted 8/12/1980-8/12/1980, Jimmy Carter measured a 32% approval rating.
In August polling Jimmy Carter led his challengers Ronald Reagan and John Anderson by a margin of 39%-38%-13%.
In a poll conducted 8/10/1984-8/12/1984, Ronald Reagan measured a 53% approval rating.
In August polling Ronald Reagan led his challenger Walter Mondale by a margin of 52%-41%.
In a poll conducted 8/10/1992-8/12/1992, George H.W. Bush measured a 35% approval rating.
In August polling* the challenger Bill Clinton led George H.W. Bush by a margin of 54%-39%.
*Reform Party candidate Ross Perot had dropped out of the race at this time.
In a poll conducted 8/23/1996-8/25/1996 Bill Clinton measured a 52% approval rating.
In August polling Bill Clinton led his challengers Bob Dole and Ross Perot by a margin of 51%-39%-7%.
In a poll conducted 8/9/2004-8/11/2004 George W. Bush measured a 51% approval rating.
In August polling George W. Bush led his challenger John Kerry by a margin of 50%-47%.
Gallup Ping
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Did I miss 1988 in there?
George H.W. Bush was not an incumbent in 1988.
Do you have the Bush/Dukakoid numbers?
The Fox All Stars are about to discuss this on Special Report right now.
Are you sure about the 1992 numbers? I seem to remember Perot siphoning off something like 20 million votes from Bush Sr., costing him the election. It would have been a landslide Repbulican victory if not for him.
Is there anyway there could be a reverse of 2000? Bush with + popular, Kerry with + Electoral?
I hope Gallup is right, because the other polls show Bush is losing. And in the EC it's even worst.
Doubtful, Kerry will win larger states by larger margins.
It doesn't matter if Kerry wins California by 51% or 70% he still only gets their 54 electoral votes. So while he could run up big popular vote margins in big states, he needs more electoral votes to win the election.
Bush will win smaller or modest sized states, and probably win the electoral vote no matter what. But the popular vote could be slanted in Kerry's favor because of winning by large margins in big states.
My thinking was actually a sudden case of conscience among Democrats in places like California, New York, Vermot, Oregon, Washington and voting for Nader or Dean. It would give Kerry enough votes to take the electorals but drop him below Bush in popular.
Bush is doing better by far than the incumbants who lost and worse by a little bit than the incumbants who won (basicailly the same in JA, but worse horse race numbers). This would portend a Bush win, but by a smaller margin than Clinton or Reagan. This is what I think will happen, unless the economy tanks.
Your nonsense has grown so old. At least come up with something original, please.
Really can't see it happening, with the urban areas generally favoring Dems.
55 EVs this time around for Cali.
No, because the electoral votes are weighted towards less populous states. A vote in Wyoming is worth 3 in CA, for example. And, of course, Bush has nearly all the little states locked up.
This would seem to indicate a win for the incumbent, but not by as big a margin as in '84 or '96.
I know, but do we have the chart anyway?
Yes, but remember that Perot was polling fairly well then dropped out of the race in July. The numbers above are August numbers that would have not included Perot, but left a lot of Perot supporters still undecided or leaning away from Bush. After Perot re-entered the race, many of those voters returned to Perot. So August numbers from that year are pretty irrelevant.
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