Gallup: Can Election Probabilities Be Established at This Point?

Gallup News Service ^ | September 8, 2004 | Frank Newport

[RWR8189]

Labor Day to Election Day patterns from past elections help put the current situation in context

PRINCETON, NJ -- The fundamentals of the presidential race did not change dramatically as a result of the Republican convention. George W. Bush had a slight lead over John Kerry among likely voters prior to the convention. He has now edged further ahead.

A question of keen interest to election observers focuses on the possibility of significant or dramatic change from this point forward. Bush is ahead of Kerry by seven points among likely voters. What is the probability that Kerry can come from behind and win the election?

"Gap Changes" Between Labor Day and Election Day

There have been 17 presidential elections since Gallup's election polling began in 1936. In each instance we can look at the difference in the margin between the Gallup Poll that immediately followed Labor Day and the final popular vote outcome.

[RWR8189]

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LABOR DAY POLL ESTIMATE AND FINAL POPULAR VOTE OUTCOME ON ELECTION DAY, 1936-2000
	Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Gap (Dem. minus Rep.)	"Gap Change" -- Labor Day to Final Election Outcome
2000	%	%	pctg. pts.	pctg. pts.
Labor Day estimate	44	47	3	3
Election Day outcome	48	48	0
1996
Labor Day estimate	36	53	17	9
Election Day outcome	41	49	8
1992
Labor Day estimate	42	51	9	4
Election Day outcome	38	43	5
1988
Labor Day estimate	49	41	-8	1
Election Day outcome	53	46	-7
1984
Labor Day estimate	55	44	-11	7
Election Day outcome	59	41	-18
1980
Labor Day estimate	37	41	4	14
Election Day outcome	51	41	-10
1976
Labor Day estimate	40	51	11	9
Election Day outcome	48	50	2
1972
Labor Day estimate	61	33	-28	5
Election Day outcome	61	38	-23
1968
Labor Day estimate	43	31	-12	12
Election Day outcome	43	43	0
1964
Labor Day estimate	32	62	30	7
Election Day outcome	38	61	23
1960
Labor Day estimate	47	46	-1	1
Election Day outcome	50	50	0
1956
Labor Day estimate	52	41	-11	4
Election Day outcome	57	42	-15
1952
Labor Day estimate	56	40	-16	6
Election Day outcome	55	45	-10
1948
Labor Day estimate	47	39	-8	13
Election Day outcome	45	50	5
1944
Labor Day estimate	45	50	5	3
Election Day outcome	46	54	8
1940
Labor Day estimate	40	49	9	1
Election Day outcome	45	55	10
1936
Labor Day estimate	45	49	4	20
Election Day outcome	37	61	24

[Senator Goldwater]

Bush is now in control of this election.

Kerry lacks the discipline to change that.

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[RWR8189]

Across the 17 elections between 1936 and 2000, a candidate who was behind in the Labor Day poll went on to win on Election Day in only 3....

...In other words, the candidate who is ahead on Labor Day usually wins the election, regardless of changes in the margins over the last two months of the campaign.

[MJY1288]

Only Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush have overcome a Labor Day lead by their opponent since 1948 :-)

John Kerry will not join the club :-)

[DeFault User]

Only 2 out of the 17 elections exhibit all of the developments Kerry would need if he is to win this year (i.e., more than a 7-point gap change and a lead change):

1980, with Reagan's 14-point "gap change" and eventual victory after Carter had been ahead on Labor Day

1948, with Truman's 13-point "gap change" and eventual victory after Dewey had been ahead

Senator, you're no Harry Truman and you're damn sure no Ronald Reagan.

[Doctor Stochastic]

The race is not always to the swift, nor the victory to the strong, nor the election to the leader on Labor Day; but that's the way to lay your bets.

[Ciexyz]

Good news but we musn't become overconfident. Get every Pubbie voter to the polls Nov. 2nd!

[VisualizeSmallerGovernment]

The fundamentals of the presidential race did not change dramatically as a result of the Republican convention.

Other than that "Bush takes a 7 point lead" thingy.

According to Gallup's numbers, any candidate with at least a 7 point lead by labor day has won the election 11 out of 12 times. The only exception was 1948 when What's His Face beat The Other Guy.

[Cogadh na Sith]

Wow! The Republican percentages have almost always been underestimated at Labor Day!

[OSHA]

But the MSM is in panic mode.

[Darkwolf377]

I'd like to be on the list. Thank you!

[staytrue]

The moral of the story: "The hay is already in the barn" by Bob Ehrlich, the first republican governor elected in Maryland in 32 years.

The night before the election, Bob Ehrlich held his final tv interview and commented on the probable election results with "the hay is already in the barn", wrapped up his final campaign stop in Arbutus at 6 pm and went to bed. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend campaigned for 48 hours straight through the night and all the way until the polls closed.

The bottom line is that most of the time, the election is decided before labor day. All the hard work that you put into your campaign the last year, counts more than the final 2 months.

[Jaysun]

Bush is now in control of this election.
Kerry lacks the discipline to change that.

That's right. Kerry & Co. can't resist the temptation to act the way that liberals act when they get cornered. Irrational kooks that tell hysterical lies. That's simply not something that people like to vote for. They've already resurrected the AWOL nonsense, for example.

[Darkwolf377]

I'm thinking that since the Republican convention was so close to Labor Day that it inflates Bush's lead. I'd be interested in the gap between the last convention and Labor Day in past elections.

If Bush maintains ANY kind of lead for the next few weeks I think that shows people have settled into a comfort level with him.

People should recall that what helped Bush in the Gore debates was not that Bush came across as more intelligent--but more likeable.

The first thing Bill Weld said to W (even Hannity reported this) was to watch out, because Kerry simply lies during debates to throw people off. That's a key piece of info for W to have. If he knows Kerry's gonna be tossing bomb,s Bush will instead focus on the crux of whichever issue is being discussed, and not on Kerry's BSing.

I just don't see Kerry getting any traction between now and the election. I only see more people realizing how unlikeable he is.

[Names Ash Housewares]

"Only Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush have overcome a Labor Day lead by their opponent since 1948"

I've been collecting these little factoids. Looks like I have another to add to the list....

Senators rarely win, Its been over 40 years. JFK was the last and just barely.

Only three incumbents have lost in the last 90 years, all had bad economies dogging them.

No wartime President has lost, ever.

All sucessful Democrat challengers in recent history have been Governors from the south.

No Democrat has been sucessful in recent history without carrying the south. The south is Bush country.

No challenger has won without at least an 8 point gallup convention bump. Kerrys went negative.

Approval numbers for Bush are in re-election territory and rising.

Economic indicators favor re-election of the incumbent.

Not too meaningful but interesting...If the market is up on the last day of an incumbents convention, 80% of them were re-elected. Market was up real good on the last day of the RNC.

Kerrys wife is a kook. Its not an indicator. Sorry have to say something about that.

All that being said. Campaign like tommorrow is election day and were behind. Every day counts!

Hail to the King Baby.

Hail to the King Baby.

[JLS]

I found it interesting that they did not comment that the two of the eight big moves that had the candidate expanding his lead were GOP incumbent presidents Ike and Reagan? This is afterall a GOP incumbent they are discussing.

Of course as you say no letting up. States like Wisconsin and Florida need to have big enough margins the Dims can not steal them.

[Plutarch]

The two instances in which a candidate came from behind after being behind at Labor Day involved politicians with significant appeal: Truman and Reagan.

With Kerry, no appeal. In Kerry we get ineptitude, platitudes and sailboarding dude.

[goldstategop]

The only way Kerry can win is if the economy tanks; if the situation in Iraq undergoes complete collapse or if there's a major terrorist attack here in the States between now and Election Day. Scenario 3# is more likely than the first two. The debates will not help Kerry regain the lead unless he displays a side of his personality we haven't yet seen. With 55 days to go, nothing should be taken for granted but a cautiously optimistic assessment strongly suggests the odds favor President Bush's eventual re-election in November.

[Leroy S. Mort]

Bottom line from Gallup:

"At the same time, there are only 2 examples (1948 and 1980) out of the last 17 elections that fit exactly the circumstances Kerry needs if he is to win: a gap change of at least seven points and a lead change from Labor Day to the election. Two other races -- in 1976 and in 1968 -- came close to these specifications (with the Labor Day leader barely holding on to win). Thus, of the last 17 elections, 4 can be said to have demonstrated the type of Labor Day to Election Day change that would be necessary for Kerry to win this year."

In other words, it ain't lookin good for JF'nK.