Let’s assume peace in Ukraine—granted, a very big-ticket axiom. In our premise, we may include the speculation that Ukraine has ceded, de facto if not formally, at least some of the territory conquered by Russia in the course of the last three years; those who insist that something like total Ukrainian victory is achievable sound suspiciously similar to those who thought the Afghanistan occupation was indefinitely sustainable, and may be safely disregarded for the sake of the exercise.