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The morning I met Elaine Rich, she was sitting at the kitchen table of her small town home in suburban Maryland trying to estimate refugee flows in Syria.It wasn't the only question she was considering; there were others:Will North Korea launch a new multistage missile before May 10, 2014?Will Russian armed forces enter Kharkiv, Ukraine, by May 10? Rich's answers to these questions would eventually be evaluated by the intelligence community, but she didn't feel much pressure because this wasn't her full-time gig."I'm just a pharmacist," she said. "Nobody cares about me, nobody knows my name, I don't have a...

New Jersey began allowing Internet gambling on Tuesday in a much-watched bet that there are untapped sources of revenue on bedside iPads and cubicle desktops, and even among people checking their phones while they wait in line for coffee. Gambling analysts say it is the most significant development since casinos opened in Atlantic City over three decades ago, ultimately setting off what became a furious competition among states for a share of the take.

With sincere regret we must inform you that due to circumstances recently discovered we must immediately cease trading activity on www.intrade.com.

In the short time since President Obama was re-elected, government has issued hundreds of new regulations. The bureaucrats never stop. There are now more than 170,000 pages of federal regulations. President Obama wants still more rules. Cheering on increased financial regulation, he said, "We've got to keep moving forward." To the president, and probably most Americans, "forward" means passing more laws. It is scary to think about a world without regulation. Intuition leads us to think that without government we'd be victims of fraud, as I explain in my latest book, "No, They Can't!" But our intuition is wrong. Consider...

Prediction market Intrade, which allows spectators to bet on subjects ranging from entertainment to elections, said on Monday it will no longer accept U.S. customers because of what it called legal and regulatory pressures. Intrade, based in Dublin, Ireland, announced the decision on its website hours after the U.S. commodities regulator sued the exchange's owner, alleging it allowed unauthorized trading by U.S. customers. U.S. customers must close their accounts and withdraw all funds by the end of the year, according to the statement. "We understand this announcement may come as a surprise and a disappointment, and we apologize for the...

Intrade, the futures trading website, will no longer be available to residents of the United States as a result of “legal and regulatory pressures,” the Dublin, Ireland-based site announced Monday. The website allows people to buy and sell shares in possible outcomes. For example, before Election Day, users could buy shares that President Barack Obama would be re-elected. Those who did were paid out for those shares when Obama defeated Mitt Romney. Users who held shares in Romney becoming president lost money on those shares. “We are sorry to announce that due to legal and regulatory pressures, Intrade can no...

Washington, DC – The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today filed a civil complaint in federal district court in Washington, DC, charging Intrade The Prediction Market Limited (Intrade) and Trade Exchange Network Limited (TEN), Irish companies based in Dublin, Ireland, with offering commodity option contracts to U.S. customers for trading, as well as soliciting, accepting, and confirming the execution of orders from U.S. customers, all in violation of the CFTC’s ban on off-exchange options trading. The CFTC’s complaint also charges Intrade and TEN with making false statements concerning their options trading website in documents filed with the CFTC, and...

Obama slipping!!

If polls and commentators such as Barone and Morris are correct and Romney is going to win big then Intrade is way off. Is there any precedent for Intrade showing such off results this close to an election? I know in 2004 after phony exit polls were released they had Kerry way up, but right now I see no published items that would indicate traders using real money should be so heavy for Obama. Some have said Intrade is being manipulated but is there any precedent for that?

Ok...I'm a recovering pessimist. I actually think Romney's going to win this thing, and possibly win it by a larger margin than most pollsters and pundits are predicting. The national election seems to have stabilized into a 50-47 pattern that is unlikely to change barring some major news event or scandal over the weekend. But I still have a little bit of Eeyore in me, and there are three things that worry me: 1. Nate Silver This whiny turd with his hyperconfident "78.9 chance Obama wins" line is the biggest burr in my saddle. Unlike many, I'm not that impressed...

It's tough to be objective in forecasting the presidential election, but based on the polls I have read about, I think Romney has a close to 50% change of winning. Intrade currently estimates Obama has a 63% chance of winning the election and a 62% chance of winning the popular vote by 0.5% or more. The popular vote market surprises me. Romney is slightly ahead in most national polls. I don't want to be paranoid, but are people trying to manipulate the Intrade market to demoralize Republicans?

If you only listen to Fox News and Rush Limbaugh you believe Romney is winning. He's not, he's losing. Both Real Clear Politics and Intrade have Obama with 281 electoral votes with 11 days til the election. You only need 270 to win. Intrade predicted every state correctly in 2004 and had two states reversed in 2008. Move your cursor over each state "click here" to see the candidates chance of winning. Notice Virginia has moved back toward Obama and has more chance of going for Obama than Ohio does of going for Romney. There have been a lot of...

Yesterday morning, a few hours after the debate, Obama crashed on InTrade, from around 61 to 57.Last night? Another one. He briefly crashed to 51, before stabilizing where he is now in the mid-50s.There is some talk that there was some speculative manipulation attack. Who knows. But for people who keep score on this, Obama is dropping like a stone.

Current: Obama 56.9, Romney 43.1

TODAY'S REAL CRASH: BARACK OBAMA IS CRASHING ON INTRADE Joe WeisenthalOct. 23, 2012, 10:11 AM Along with the market being down... Obama down to 57.(The DJIA is down 257 as I post this article)

Along with the market being down... Obama down to 57!!

Was just over at Intrade and noticed Obama's share price is down 5.5% at 5.81. It been a while since it was this low. I guess the European gamblers are cash in their chips.

I set the Intrade alarm to notify me when he trades above 40 and it is interesting to note that 90 lots traded at 40.9. Most volume is very light however.

I apologize for the vanity, but I do not really know much about Intrade. I know it is called a "Prediction" site, which is a fancy legalistic word for gambling. I am assuming US law prohibits Americans from participating. 1. Today - New Hampshire and Alaska are considered toss up 2. Yesterday Colorado was toss up now leans Romney. 3. Friday - Ohio was shifting between toss up and Lean Obama. In all of this Obama keeps flucuating between 60 and 61.5%. Once he hits 60% he goes up. I don't understand how all of this works. It does not...

Obama's odds of winning re-election have climbed back to 65%-70% since the second debate, according to three sources we're tracking: Nate Silver's aggregate poll forecastIntrade's prediction marketBetfair's prediction market First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama 66% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% a few days ago. And Silver says the impact of Obama's strong performance in the second debate hasn't yet factored into the polls he looks at. Nate Silver, New York Times  On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds have climbed back to 65% from a post-debate low in the high...