Keyword: intrade
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Is Intrade Really a Valuable Predictor? Published Thursday, October 11, 2012 A.D. | By Paul Zummo Intrade is an online trading platform where participants actually place (legal) bets on the outcomes of certain events. For close to a decade political pundits have been using it as a reference to predict election outcomes. Indeed it seems to have a good record, correctly predicting the outcomes of the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, and getting all but two states correct in 2008. Currently, Intrade gives Barack Obama a 62.4% chance to win re-election.So is Intrade a valuable resource that can be relied...
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With the race obviously trending to Romney in a very strong way, how in the heck can Intrade still be showing Obama as a 3 to 2 favorite?? Unless I'm looking at things through total rose colored glasses, it makes no sense!
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Now down to 65%. He lost about 8 points during last night's debate, and has lost a couple more today. He was around 80% a couple of days ago.
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Here's the shares percentage on Intrade for Obama and Romney PRIOR to their 1st Presidential Debate:
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Want to know how the debate is going? Check out Intrade, which is a market-based betting site. Obama is down to a 67% chance of winning the presidency, compared to 76.5% before the debate
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Obama - 68.0% Mitt - 32.5%
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66.9% chance. Today's change: up $.21 to $66.9
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I cannot believe the odds they have for Presidential election. I just want to make sure they are totally legit and have history of paying out and it's all legal, right?
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Currently Intrade is at: Obummer: 55.8% Romney: 43.7%
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Just imagine you were looking at the charts on two different stocks, and deciding which one to buy. Here are the charts: ================================================ Stock BOJB: ================================================ Stock MRPR: ================================================ Now I'm no expert at charting stocks, but I'd say BOJB has gone as high as it will ever go, and looks ready for a drop, while MRPR hit a plateau after a nice run up, and looks ready to breakout soon!
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By Mr. Curmudgeon:Computers at the University of Colorado have crunched data from all fifty states and are picking a winner in the 2012 presidential race - Republican Mitt Romney. Before you dismiss the computer's binary conclusion as wishful thinking, the same program has accurately predicted presidential winners beginning with Ronald Reagan's stunning and satisfying victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980. If that is not impressive enough for you, the program also predicted that in the election of 2000, Al Gore would win the popular vote but lose to George W. Bush in the Electoral College.If you happen to reside in...
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This past Monday, one of our research analysts - Jason Cimpl - caused quite a buzz on our Web site, as well as in our office, with a provocative article on the November presidential election. I thought it important to follow up Jason's insights from an alternative prospective … one where speculators put their money directly at risk on election outcomes. Let's face it, polls are meaningless. The questions are leading and the polls themselves are often commissioned by the two major political parties. Each party is motivated to put its candidates in a favorable light, so party-commissioned polls will...
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Changes have been made to the money laundering regulations in Ireland under the Criminal Justice (Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing) Act of 2010. Intrade is now legally obligated to know more about our customers and to comply with the customer due diligence requirements set out in the Act we require all current and future Intrade customers to provide the following: Proof of identity in the form of passport or drivers license (must include photo) Two proofs of address in the form of utility bills, bank statements, recent tax or insurance statements or certificates etc. (must show your residential address, not...
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Current: Obama 56.8, Romney 42.0 Just prior to Ryan pick, the numbers were about 62.0 Obama, and 37.0 Romney. The numbers have been moving steadily in Romney's direction since the Ryan pick.
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Obama appears to have started his freefall. It started today.
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Time to close ranks behind Romney. He will beat Obama.
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Newt Gingrich's fortunes on the prediction betting website InTrade have collapsed in the past three days, amid an unrelenting assault from all sides in the Republican field. After pushing close to 40 percent on the site, he's down to a 16.5 percent chance of winning the nomination. Mitt Romney, who fell as low as 42 percent on the site last week, is back up to 64 percent. The radical swing is a reflection of the growing unease on all sides about Gingrich's viability as the nominee - and recent polling showing that Gingrich's rise to the top in Iowa was...
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Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has fallen below 50 percent on InTrade for the first time since the beginning of October, as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has seen his fortunes on the prediction market rise. A trade at 7:28 this morning valued Romney as having just a 49.3 percent chance to win the GOP nomination. He peaked at over a 70 percent chance at the beginning of November, amid Herman Cain's collapse in the polls.
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