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CNN has come out with its first electoral map of the campaign season and the "Road to 270." The map is based on polling and other factors they detailed. And it is that path to 270 that we attempt to explore here. We base this current outlook on public and private polling, conversations with campaign advisers, Republican and Democratic political operatives, members of Congress, and political professionals involved with outside groups poised to be active in the race.First, let's start by saying how hilarious it is that they spent multiple paragraphs downplaying the map before they even started talking about...

I believe President Trump will win. But I do have concerns about some states that could possibly go to Biden. I've been tinkering with the interactive electoral map at https://electoralvotemap.com and at the moment I think the final results could look like this: https://imgur.com/gallery/2rQZmrA I'm assuming WA, OR, CA and NV will go to Biden. But I'm hoping that NV or OR (if enough people sick of what's been happening Portland) will go for Trump. I am concerned about MN, WI, IA, NC. I think Trump needs to win two of these states to help ensure victory. What do you...

Nate Silver was the only Lefty pollster who gave a Trump chance in 2016. NATE SILVER — “If you take the polls at face value right now—with Biden gaining/holding steady in AZ, WI, MI but losing ground in PA & FL, then Arizona is the tipping-point state right now, which could lead to the map shown here. This is a winning map for Biden, but it’s precarious.”

In just four weeks, voters from all corners of this bitterly divided country will cast their votes for the man who will either become or remain America's next president. Pollsters, pundits, and politicos have obsessed over the ever-shifting electoral map and how a handful of swing counties and states could decide whether President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden will be named the nation's commander in chief in what is shaping up to be the most contentious election ever. There's a head-spinning number of variables at play: the continuing coronavirus crisis, a struggling economy, a reckoning on systemic...

President Trump has put Democratic challenger Joseph R. Biden on the defensive in Minnesota, an unlikely battleground that hasn’t voted Republican in a presidential election since 1972. It’s a rare opportunity for Mr. Trump to expand the electoral map and potentially capture Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes to offset a potential loss in Michigan or Wisconsin, two states that he narrowly won in 2016.Mr. Trump came close to winning Minnesota four years ago. He lost the state to Hillary Clinton by a little more than 1.5 percentage points. This time, his law-and-order message has been amplified by months of unrest and...

Ste Kinney-Fields created the maps below. They’re all based on data from from fivethirtyeight and 270towin. The maps show the 2016 presidential outcomes based on select voter outcomes.

The last week has been a tough one for Hillary Clinton. Last Friday's announcement by FBI Director James Comey that emails considered “pertinent” to the investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server had been discovered accelerated a bump in Donald Trump's poll numbers that had begun before that news hit. National polling was the first to tighten — the WaPo-ABC Tracking Poll showed the Democratic presidential candidate up three points on Friday — but swing-state polling has followed suit. CNN, as of Friday morning, even had Clinton below 270 electoral votes for the first time in a long...

This is my take of the electoral college - i'm not authority but it's a fun conversation... at least it's sparking some interesting discussion on Facebook. This is my rare foray into a vanity post here... please be gentle. :) If the image doesn't load I have Trump winning with 285 electoral college votes. The image is clickable.

I’ve been watching a British betting site – PaddyPower.com. As Trump’s odds improved, I realized that this bookie site was also giving odds on whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump would win November’s election on a state-by-state basis... But here is the map according to PaddyPower – the British bookie site. Trump only is behind by a thin margin of 20 electoral votes. They gave the rest of the deep south to Trump – that is Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. They gave Virginia and Pennsylvania to Clinton and New Hampshire to Clinton. They gave Ohio and Iowa to Trump,...

Playing around with the Interactive Electoral Map. If you give Trump/Hillary all the states they will "probably" win the EV count looks something like T-206 H-217. With recent polls these are the states that are up for grabs: NV, CO, IA, MI, OH, PA, VT, ME, NH, FL. If Trump holds NV IA OH FL that puts him at 265. Hillary takes CO PA MI puts her at 262. The remaining states ME (split) VT and NH. IF Trump could win NH and split ME 3:1 he wins 272 to Hillary (winning VT) 266. However, if Hillary splits ME 3:1...

As Trump Rises In Battleground States, Clinton Moves To Block His Path To 270 By Philip Rucker and Dan Balz September 17 EXETER, N.H. — Tiny New Hampshire has just four votes in the electoral college, but Tim Kaine was back here for his third visit in five weeks. At back-to-back campaign appearances, Hillary Clinton’s running mate offered a blunt reason for why. “This race is close,” the senator from Virginia said at a rally Thursday in this picturesque New England town. “I would rather be us right now than them. I think we have a more straightforward path to...

You've probably seen the above map already, or ones very much like it, showing Hillary Clinton's prohibitive lead in the Electoral College. In my previous Wargaming column from four weeks ago, Clinton's worst-case scenario gave her a squeaker 273-265. And that, I must reiterate, was her worst-case outcome as of just four weeks ago.But then Donald Trump went to Mexico in what might prove to have been a game-changer. It is already at the very least a direction-changer -- if the massive new WaPo/SurveyMonkey poll is to be believed.Let's look at the maps based on that poll of nearly 75,000...

Let me break it down by state and electoral votes. The Democrat will almost always win the following states: California, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. Those states are worth 183 electoral votes. Thus, the Democrat likely enters the 2016 election with a base of 242 electoral votes. This electoral vote allocation leaves the Democrat just 28 electoral votes from The White House, while the Republican needs an additional 100 electoral votes to win. There are only 126 electoral votes left...

While Clinton continues to have a structural advantage in the electoral map, there is no doubt Donald Trump is surging and his positive momentum is beginning to have an effect in several state primaries. Keep in mind, this map is also created based on polling averages which likely are using an outdated turnout model and are assuming democratic voters will turn out as strongly for Hillary as they did for Obama. There are many signs this will not be the case. Given this inherent bias, Clinton leaning states currently amount to 229 electoral votes, whereas Trump leaning states amount to...

The New York Times published a great piece Sunday headlined "Electoral Map Gives Donald Trump Few Places to Go." Here's the crux of the article, which was written by the terrific Alexander Burns and Maggie Haberman: Even as Mr. Trump has ticked up in national polls in recent weeks, senior Republicans say his path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election has remained narrow — and may have grown even more precarious. It now looks exceedingly difficult for him to assemble even the barest Electoral College majority without beating Hillary Clinton in a trifecta of the biggest swing...

As it is right now, 217 electoral votes for the Democrats with 191 for the Republicans.

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While Romney still leads 206-201 on the RCP Electoral Count Map, the "No Toss-up" map still projects a narrow 277-261 victory for the President.

RCP ELECTORAL MAP: 270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win Obama: 221 ........ Toss Ups: 136 ........ Romney: 181 SOLID Dem: 175 ........ Leaning Dem: 46 SOLID GOP: 181 ........ Leaning GOP: 50 LIKELY STATES OBAMA (175) California (55) Connecticut (7) Delaware (3) District of Columbia (3) Hawaii (4) Illinois (20) Maryland (10) Massachusetts (11) New Jersey (14) New York (29) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington (12) ROMNEY (131) Alabama (9) Alaska (3) Arkansas (6) Idaho (4) Kansas (6) Kentucky (8) Louisiana (8) Mississippi (6) Nebraska (5) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) Texas (38) Utah...