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Posts by Godzilla

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  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/30/2025 6:14:24 AM PDT · 660 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Globalism / Great Reset –

    Bezo’s wedding was a grouping of climate change activists - flying in with dozens of private jets and mega luxury boats .


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
    - New no king style protest for July 17th

    A sitting U.S. Congressman has demanded an investigation and potential denaturalization of New York Assembly member and Democratic New York City mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, citing alleged pro-terrorist sympathies. In response, one of the most dangerous Islamic figures in America, Imam Yasir Qadhi, the spiritual leader of EPIC Masjid in Texas, erupted with rage. Qadhi defended Mamdani, attacked America, and praised a new generation of pro-Hamas politicians.

    Qadhi smeared Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) as a “racist bigoted Islamophobe” and declared “[W]e need tens, nay hundreds, of Mamdani-esque politicians…”

    In a separate Facebook post, Qadhi framed Mamdani’s election as a blow to AIPAC and the “Zionist project,” celebrating what he described as the collapse of Israel’s political hold over America.

    “Mamdani’s victory… represents a loss for key billionaire AIPAC supporters, and hence for the Zionist project,” Qadhi said. “The spell that Israel had over America seems to have finally lifted, and we can breathe free at last.”

    On June 26, 2025, Rep. Ogles submitted a formal letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate whether Zohran Mamdani should be subject to denaturalization proceedings under 8 U.S.C. § 1451(a) for misrepresenting his pro-terrorist sympathies in order to gain citizenship.

    https://rairfoundation.com/alert-texas-yasir-qadhi-calls-hundreds-mamdani-style/

    OBSERVATION - The rapid rise of Mamdani in NYC politics is a reflection of the sudden power drive across the nation. Moslems have been taking control of cities across the nation by overwhelming the demographics enhanced by the biden importation. This is setting the table for an English like take over. Think back to London when a moslem took over a mayor and consider the nation today. This mix is driven by a historic marxist / islamist partnership of recent decades as both share a common hatred of US style democracy and capitalism. As a CW2 threshold approaches, this duo is beginning to step out of the bushes to drive Anti-Americanism. And they represent elements more prone to political violence to gain or retain power.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    Reports that the US used about 20% of its THAAD missile stockpile in the recent 12 day Israel / Iran war.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    Sen. Thom Tillis’ political career just met its end, and there’s no denying who dropped the hammer: Donald J. Trump. On Sunday, Tillis announced he will not seek re-election, saying the choice between “another six years navigating the political theatre and partisan gridlock” and spending time with family “is not a hard choice.”

    Tillis said he will continue to serve his remaining 18 months in office, aiming to “focus on producing meaningful results without the distraction of raising money or political gamesmanship.”

    OBSERVATION - Tillis has a voting record of supporting the democrats something like 40% of the time. Trump promised MAGA retribution in the form of a challenger in his upcoming election. Trump won the state handily and Tillis apparently saw the writing on the wall.

    He can still do a lot of damage in the remaining 18 months in office


    INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

    The Canadian government has folded to President Trump and announced it would cancel a digital services tax on American technology companies. Trump had suspended trade talks between the two countries before Canada folded.


    Illegal Immigration –

    Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests have more than doubled across 38 states since President Donald Trump took office, with the agency averaging 666 administrative detentions per day through June 10, up from fewer than 300 daily arrests in 2024, The New York Times reported.

    ICE has arrested more than 20,000 people in Texas and over 11,000 in Florida and Puerto Rico since Jan. 20, according to data obtained by the Deportation Data Project at the University of California, Berkeley.

    https://www.newsmax.com/us/ice-arrests-stephen-miller/2025/06/28/id/1216850/

    ***
    “Alligator Alcatraz” is expected to be operational this week.

    The facility sits conveniently next to a deportation airstrip, streamlining the removal process. DeSantis praised the construction team for their speed and efficiency, noting the center will be ready to house illegal immigrants by Tuesday.


    Russia -

    Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    *****

    What Are Russia’s Summer Offensive Plans?

    Russia has recently opened a new front in Sumy, likely tied to its rhetoric about establishing a buffer zone following Ukraine’s surprise 2024 incursion into Kursk. The Institute for the Study of War noted that the Kremlin is also using the pretext of “buffer zones” to justify expanding Russia’s territorial ambitions in Ukraine.

    On the battlefield, the primary aim appears to be stretching Ukrainian forces thin across multiple fronts to increase pressure on Donetsk Oblast, which is Moscow’s primary objective. This is reflected by Russia’s decision to deploy its top drone units to the area.

    Nonetheless, Ukraine has held steady and has been working to drive back the Russians from Sumy after Moscow suffered heavy losses. Recent reports reveal increasing numbers of Russians voluntarily surrendering to Ukrainians, likely viewing Ukrainian captivity as a better place to be than being sent to the meatgrinder to die by their commanders. Russian soldiers have been openly commenting on Ukrainian aviation, saying their pilots fly “like Jews in Iran,” are without fear, and are far more accurate than before.

    https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-is-ready-to-begin-its-summer-offensive


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-80 range, mostly sunny.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Overnight, Russia launched 107 Shahed-type and decoy drones from Bryansk, Kursk, Millerovo, and occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s air defense neutralized 74 of them—64 shot down, 10 suppressed by EW.

    Russian losses per 30/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General sTaff

    +1070 men
    +4 tanks
    +7 AFVs
    +29 artillery
    +2 MLRS
    +1 AD system
    +3 helicopters (Marinovka airbase)

    Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Chasiv Yar

    North-Slobozhansky (Sumy) -

    Russia has massed 50,000 troops near Sumy—three times more than Ukraine has in the area and just 20 km from the city. Despite losing 300–400 troops daily, they keep sending in reserves. Ukrainian soldiers are digging trenches under fire, and elite units are being deployed to hold the line.

    Zaporizhzhia Axis -

    Chechen forces are reportedly being prepared for a large-scale offensive in Zaporizhzhia. According to ex-Mariupol mayor advisor Andriushchenko, 15 more trucks with personnel are moving toward Enerhodar/Melitopol/Vasylivka—on top of the 21 previously spotted.

    Summary —

    Reports of Russian build up in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia indicate that Russia is trying to threaten the ends of the battle front in order to weaken the Ukraine center in the Donetsk region. Russian redeployment of forces to these areas may account for the general decrease in combat intensity of recent months, as Russia is still working hard to bring 30-40K new troops to the front. This is also the first mention of Chechen forces in a while, so it appears Russian is digging deep to the bench for forces.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - IDF ramps up attacks in Gaza

    - More hostage deal talk

    - Movement on an Israeli / Syrian peace agreement.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    US President Donald Trump is working to advance a hostage deal aimed at securing the release of all Israeli hostages and bringing an end to the Israel-Hamas War, sources familiar with the negotiation process told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    IDF is moving forward in Gaza City after the entire city was issued evacuation notices. Heavy air strikes noted overnight in Gaza City as well as Khan Younis.

    IDF Spokesman in Arabic:

    A clear warning to all in Gaza City, Jabalia, and surrounding neighborhoods, the IDF is operating with overwhelming force and the operations will intensify, moving west toward the city center to eliminate terrorist infrastructure.

    The Salah al-Din axis is now closed due to IDF presence.

    For your safety, evacuate immediately west, then south toward the Mawasi area via Rashid Road.
    Hamxs is endangering you and leading you to disaster.
    Do not return, your lives are at risk.

    ***
    Israel said Hakham Muhammad Issa Al-Issa, one of the founders of Hamas and head of its combat support headquarters, was killed Friday in an airstrike.

    ***
    Hamas is rewarding people who kill humanitarian aid workers with bounties, Fox News reported on Saturday.

    The US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Aid Foundation (GHF) told Fox News Digital, “We are aware of credible reports that Hamas is openly targeting the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation and those who work with us.”

    GHF continued, “According to these reports, Hamas has placed bounties on both our American security personnel and Palestinian aid workers — offering cash rewards to anyone who injures or kills them.”

    https://worldisraelnews.com/hamas-offers-bounties-for-killing-humanitarian-aid-workers/

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar: Israel is interested in establishing official diplomatic ties with Syria and Lebanon. Israel will not negotiate the Golan Heights in any peace agreement.

    ***
    Lebanon’s LBCI channel reported on Sunday, citing sources familiar with developments in Syria, about Syria’s conditions for a peace agreement with Israel.

    According to the report, the conditions include Israeli recognition of the regime of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, withdrawal from territories captured by Israel since last December and from the buffer zone in the Golan, a halt to Israeli airstrikes in Syria, and security arrangements in southern Syria — particularly along the border and the tri-border area with Jordan.
    Most importantly, according to the report, Syria is demanding US guarantees for the agreements and American support for the Syrian regime.

    In return, Syria would recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/410870

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    Houthis have been very quiet lately.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Israel focusing with more intensity on accomplishing their goals in Gaza as soon as possible. The Iranian war delayed some of the objectives in Gaza, which now it appears that Israel is trying to make up time. Though there is rumbling that Trump has given Israel two weeks to clean things up in Gaza, Israel is unlikely to hold to that until their full objectives are complete - basically the destruction of Hamas. Anything short would give them time to eventually reconstitute and maintain control of Gaza.

    Iran seem stable so far, except for apparent drone strikes and potential Mossad hits.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WATCH Jun 30, 2025

    Threat Level reduced to WATCH from WARNING due to the ceasefire holding and no evidence of any impending action by either side, apart from Israeli targeted drone strikes.

    ***
    One week after the attack, Iran is rapidly accelerating engineering work to reopen access to the Fordow facility, new Maxar satellite images reveal.

    Iran has likely begun to assess damage and conduct repair operations at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 28 and 29 shows Iranian heavy equipment near two clusters of three impact points on ventilation shafts at Fordow that were caused by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. A US weapons expert assessed that Iran may be filling the craters and conducting engineering damage assessments and radiological sampling.ISW

    OBSERVATION - Much speculation continues about the state of Iran’s ability to restore uranium enrichment operations. Iran shouldn’t get their hopes up. With those bombs exploding in the enrichment gallery with the force of which demonstrated by the blowing out of ventilation shafts, those centrifuges are most likely toast. Structural integrity of the gallery is also questionable.

    ***
    Iran’s Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi issued a fatwa labeling anyone who threatens Islamic leadership, including the Supreme Leader, as a “muharib” a status that under Islamic law that carries the death penalty.
    This ruling is a direct response to U.S. threats and targets President Trump.

    ***
    OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Massive disinformation campaign being supported by MSM outlets and some other sources to down play the damage done to the Iranian nuclear program. MSM elements have doubled down on the claims that Iran will quickly resume enrichment and bomb development. This is hard to reconcile against the documented destruction of Iranian facilities.

    Now, with Israel / US pausing its attacks, Iran is trying to beat its chest again in resistance towards any appearance of losing the war.

    Khamenei continues to reside in his bunker. Israel will be more than willing to take him out should he try to become more public. Other reasons for his continued hiding are rumors of a growing movement to oust him and his cronies by forces aligning themselves to the Shah’s son. How much this movement gains traction is yet to be seen.


    Misc of Note –

    A man armed with a rifle started a wildfire Sunday and then began shooting at first responders in a northern Idaho mountain community, killing two firefighters and wounding a third during a barrage of gunfire over several hours, authorities said.

    A shelter-in-place order was lifted Sunday night after a tactical response team used cell phone data to “hone in” on a wooded area where they found the suspect’s body with a firearm nearby as flames rapidly approached, Kootenai County Sheriff Bob Norris said.

    Officials did not release his name, nor did they say what kind of gun was found.

    OBSERVATION - Noting this action. Without more info on the shooter, hard to vector in on his motives, be they political or just a nut job.

    The media has been silent on potential political motives. If this was some ultra rightist, which many have rooted in N Idaho, they would be pushing it against Trump in a heart beat. So we’ll have to sit tight a day or so before more details are worked out.

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/29/2025 5:23:09 AM PDT · 658 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Relatively calm weekend so far, quick summary of what I’ve noticed


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
    - New no king style protest for July 17th

    No significant actions so far this weekend. Expect things to pick up around July 4th as miscreants try to use the holiday to gain attention.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    The USSC slammed the door on activists district judges issuing nation wide injunction Friday. Stating “universal injunctions likely exceed the equitable authority that Congress has granted to federal courts, the Court grants the Government’s applications for a partial stay of the injunctions entered below regarding the implementation and enforcement of President Trump’s Executive Order No. 14160, but only to the extent that the injunctions are broader than necessary to provide complete relief to each plaintiff with standing to sue.”

    OBSERVATION - Liberals are in convulsions over this decision. But it was solidly based in the constitutional separation of powers. These activist liberal judges are DISTRICT judges and have no jurisdiction outside their DISTRICT. Only higher courts have that authority.

    ***
    White House Deputy Chief of Staff and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller has warned of swift consequences after a Biden-appointed activist judge defied the Supreme Court on the deportation of illegal alien. U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy attempted to usurp the authority of the Supreme Court by unilaterally declaring that his ruling barring Trump from deporting illegal aliens was still in effect even after the high court stopped his orders. “The Court’s May 21, 2025 Order on Remedy remains in full force and effect, notwithstanding today’s stay of the Preliminary Injunction,” he stated.

    https://thepopulisttimes.com/expect-fireworks-miller-warns-rogue-judge-who-defied-scotus-on-deportations-to-third-countries/

    ***
    The Senate voted 51-49 on Saturday evening to begin debate on President Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. Three Republicans, Ron Johnson (Wi.), Rand Paul (Ky.), and Thom Tillis (N.C.) voted no, but Johnson switched his vote to yes at the last minute, and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) also voted yes, oddly enough, so while Vice President JD Vance was on hand in order to cast a tie-breaking vote in case of a 50-50 tie, he was not needed.

    OBSERVATION - With republicans like these, who needs democrats?


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-80 range, mostly sunny.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    One of the most violent combined missiles and drones attack by Russia
    At night, Russia launched a massive combined missile and drone attack. In total, Russia used 537 assets.

    Shot down:
    436/477 Shahed & other type drones (+decoys)
    0/4 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
    1/7 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
    33/41 Iskander-K/Kh-101 cruise missiles
    4/5 Kalibr cruise missiles
    0/3 S-300 ballistic missiles

    The massive Russian strike overnight hit multiple regions across Ukraine: injuries in Cherkasy and Ivano-Frankivsk, civilian infrastructure damaged in Sumy, Dnipro, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Lviv. Targets included homes, colleges, churches, and critical infrastructure. Ukraine also reported that it lost an F16 to Russian fire as it was shooting down Russian drones/cruise missiles.

    Russian losses per 29/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

    +1220 men
    +6 tanks
    +7 AFVs
    +24 artillery

    Summary —

    Russia is switching to more of a surging attack via drone/missiles over the past month. Days of low numbers with sudden spikes like this one. Targets in western Ukraine especially hit - areas understood to potential have factories and storage of munitions.

    The weekend has seen moderately heavy fighting, though this last report has the most tanks destroyed that I’ve seen in a while.

    One thing that I haven’t commented on is that the ‘meat attack’ human wave attacks have pretty much quit, switching to attempts by Russian forces to race to drop off points before Ukraine drones can decimate the vehicles (mostly wheeled, unarmored) and mounted soldiers. Many of the attacks along the front are generally platoon to company sized efforts. Russia still lacks the ability, apparently, to coordinate larger units together to make more successful assaults.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - Drone strikes on key personnel in Tehran

    - Massive airstrike in Lebanon

    - Gaza continues to destabilize

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Reports that new efforts at negotiation for hostage releases being pushed by the US.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    Clashes erupted between the Barbah clan and Hamas’s Arrow Unit after terrorists shot the son of the Barbah clan’s mukhtar in the Mawasi area of Khan Yunis. In response, clan members attacked Hamas operatives at Nasser Hospital.

    According to reports from Gaza, heavy gunfire broke out inside and around the hospital. Smoke was seen rising from the area. At least 20 people were reported dead or wounded, three ambulances and three vehicles were damaged, and the hospital entrance was completely destroyed.

    OBSERVATION - These clashes between Hamas and clans appear to be growing worse and undermine Hamas’ authority in Gaza. BTW - Hamas using another hospital as a military base . . . . . .

    ***
    Israel has dropped more warning leaflets telling Gazans to flee more sectors of the strip.

    ***
    Intelligence is nothing attempts of overt reconnoissance of US backed aid distribution sites. Word is that Hamas is offering rewards on info and attacks on these distribution sites. Further word is that Hamas is planning a much larger, deliberate attack. These private US distribution points are undercutting Hamas’ black market operations where supplies are openly stolen and sold back on the black market in order to continue to fund their operations.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    A Hezbollah commander was killed in an Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon’s Kounine earlier today, the military says. According to the Israeli army, Hassan Mohammad Hamoudi was the commander of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile unit in the Bint Jbeil area.

    ***
    Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck a Hezbollah site in southeastern Lebanon’s Nabatieh Governorate on Friday, targeting a facility used to manage the terrorist group’s fire and defense systems in the Beaufort Ridge area, the Israel Defense Forces said.

    According to the IDF, the site was part of a significant underground infrastructure project that was previously destroyed during the war but had recently been the focus of Hezbollah rehabilitation efforts.

    “The presence of this site and the attempts to reestablish it constitute a blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon,” the military said in a statement.

    ***
    Talks are developing to take the current ceasefire agreement to another level where Israel withdraws and Hezbollah in the south is dismantled.
    Excuse me if we’ve heard this song before, these are key components of the current agreement.

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    The Israeli army announced that it had launched search operations and arrested several people in southern Syria and taken them to Israel.

    ***
    Discussions about a potential Israel-Syria agreement continued in Arab media Saturday. London-based Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat published an article titled: “Is Syria Ready for Peace with Israel?” Sources close to Damascus’ government told the paper that indirect negotiations are underway with regional and international backing—previously acknowledged by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

    “Syria demands an end to Israeli attacks and incursions into its territory and seeks a return to the 1974 Disengagement Agreement. Israel aims to establish a new buffer zone and a security deal, paving the way for future comprehensive peace is likely.”

    OBSERVATION - Talks growing between Israel and Syria. Syria seems willing to accept many of Israel’s demands. Could be that it no longer wants any repeat of what Israel just did to Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.

    ——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

    Israeli security forces thwart Hamas terror network in southern West Bank’s Hebron, arresting over 60, seizing weapons, and uncovering an underground hideout

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Israel reverting to pinpoint assassinations of key Iranian personnel just like they have in Lebanon an Gaza. See Iran below for more.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

    Israel has made a number of drone launched missile attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists and IRGC leaders over the past few days. Most recently,,they eliminated in Tehran: 2 IRGC members and a nuclear scientist.
    The report comes from Iranian opposition sources.

    OBSERVATIONS - These drone strikes are virtually identical to the ones Israel has been using against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Very precise and minimal damage.

    These strikes fall below the threshold of what the current ceasefire agreement covers, apparently. Also the main reason Khamanani is still hiding in his bunker, out of feat that he’d be detected by one of these Israeli drones and sent off to his virgins before his time.

    FINALLY, a note on the ongoing discussion of the claim Iran has been weeks away from a nuclear bomb - issued over the course of over a decade. There is a kind of threefold nature to Iranian govt. First is the general govt, lead by an elected president an parliament who’s job is to mostly run the day to day stuff. They are completely subordinate to Khamamei.

    Next level is are the military forces under the IRGC - completely separate from the national forces. These forces readily implement the desires of Khamanei and interact with terror operations around the world. Irans nuclear and missile programs are under their control

    And finally at the top of the food chain is Khamanei himself. His word is law, overruling anything the civilian side or IRGC say. In the context of a nuclear weapon, he has issued a fatwa stating that none would be created by Iran.

    So where do we get the whole nuclear bomb scenario then? IRGC leadership sees the bomb as necessary to destroy Israel, while the primary religious Khamenei views that as allah’s purview. Within that context though, the decree could be reversed at any time, so IRGC leadership is doing everything ready to make a bomb(s) as quickly as possible - short of making the bombs. Hence the push toward enrichment, warhead design, ballistic missile delivery systems, etc. They cannot just start from ground zero. Thus at their pre-12 day war state, they could have produced a bomb within weeks of the go ahead from Khamenei’s go order.

    The 12 day war destroyed most if not all of Iran’s most modern centrifuges, needed to take the 60% uranium up to the 90% weapons grade purity levels. Machinery and likely plans, mill work etc to construct the components of a device also largely left in a smoldering pile. Claims the Iran is resuming weapon development largely unhindered by the Israeli / US attacks are bogus propaganda snd misinformation. Iran has a lot to repair / replace in order to create a bomb. To allow them to move to restore the programs key elements rightfully cannot be permitted.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/26/2025 7:29:00 AM PDT · 656 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    No post tomorrow or Saturday. Sunday’s post may be a little later in the day.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
    - New no king style protest for July 17th

    With the weekend approaching, there are scattered protests scheduled across the country. These protests are characterized as peaceful and unlikely to produce violence, though there may be violent agitators blended into the crowd.

    LA has quieted down substantially. However, I don’t see stand down of NG and marines for at least a month as planned ICE operations are reportedly scheduled for the next month.

    Portland siege of ICE facility continues, but is lacking mass support and is gradually dwindling.

    The next big national event is being planned for July 17th, details pending.


    Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - July 4, a very symbolic day for the US could trigger terror attacks on celebrants by Iranian supporting elements.

    ICE has arrested 130 Iranian nationals across the U.S. in the last 7 days amid security concerns — Fox

    OBSERVATION - Sadly, this is likely a drop in the bucket for the potential Iranian (and affiliated) terrorists that have snuck into the country.

    Assessments continue to suggest that mass casualty events ranging from ‘lone wolf’ to larger, multi-person assaults are still very possible. These terror cells may already be operating on automatic - i.e. not relying on orders from Iran et al - but seeking targets of opportunity.

    Assessments continue of lower level threats against infrastructure - power and water, etc., via cyber attack or physical attack on key nodes.


    Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

    The trend of (modestly) rising initial jobless claims stalled last week, dropping from 246k to 236k Continuing jobless claims kept rising to 1.974 million Americans - the highest since Nov 2021

    OBSERVATION - Some noting that we may be seeing the initial wave of DOGE related layoffs.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    The leaker of the DIA report on initial effectiveness of the US airstrikes in Iran is soon to feel the hot breath of the FBI and other investigative services. Most likely a holdover deep stater. DIA is not that big of an organization, only so many hands could have gotten a hold of the document.


    Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

    “A peer-reviewed study of 1.3 million women in the Czech Republic found that in 2022, vaccinated women had 33% fewer successful conceptions per 1,000 than unvaccinated women.”
    “This is not speculation—it’s data.”

    https://x.com/drsimonegold/status/1938008483720483082?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

    OBSERVATION - Impacts to female reproduction were out there very early in the wuhan plandemic being directly caused by the jab. These reports were of course buried by the Fauci regime and MSM.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    Tulsi Gabbard, US Director of National Intelligence:
    New intelligence confirms what the president has said many times - Iran’s nuclear facilities have been destroyed. If Iran decides to restore its nuclear program, it will have to completely rebuild Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan - which will take years.

    OBSERVATION - Some reports that Gabbard is on the ‘outs’ with Trump over the Iranian operation. These ‘reports’ have to be weighed against the very evident efforts of the MSM to try to bring dissension and disagreement within the Trump administration to the top of reporting, and disrupt operations.

    ***
    Democrat “ leadership” continues to be dominated by the radical left as evidenced in the recent NYC democrat primary. Democrats have yet to lay out policies and actions to better the country, instead continuing to lay out opposition to anything Trump as their party stance.


    TRUMP Watch –

    Trump got what he wanted from the NATO meeting - forcing them to pony up and contribute a lot more to the organization rather than relying on the US to fund the bills.


    Illegal Immigration –

    Florida has officially begun building a new high-security detention facility — nicknamed “Alligator Alcatraz” — with capacity for up to 5,000 illegal migrants.

    OBSERVATION - Facility appears to be using trailers and tents for the housing of illegals. Located at an airfield deep in the heart of gator country.


    China -

    China ended its deployment of two carrier strike groups (CSG) to the Philippine Sea and Western Pacific. The Liaoning CSG spent 25 days at sea while the Shandong CSG spent 16 days at sea.

    OBSERVATION - Deployment locations still suggest this was an exercise to defend a Taiwanese blockade from a US intervention.


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 50-70 range, widely scattered rain.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Ukraine’s air defenses neutralized 24 Russian UAVs overnight, during an attack involving 41 Shahed drones and decoy UAVs launched from Bryansk, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia) and Hvardiiske (occupied Crimea).

    Russian losses per 26/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

    +1100 men
    +1 tank
    +7 AFVs
    +48 artillery

    Summary —

    Fighting is essentially stagnant on the ground. Russia manages to eek out very minor gains in the Donbas region, at high costs. Drone wars continue with a relatively low number of Shaheds overnight. However, low shoot down numbers by Ukraine mean the damage continues.

    Zero movement on talks for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.


    Pakistan / India –

    U.S. intelligence believes Pakistan is developing an ICBM capable of reaching the U.S., likely to deter American involvement in a future conflict with India. Officials warn that deploying such a weapon would make Pakistan a nuclear threat, not a partner.

    OBSERVATION - Pakistan has drifted towards more radical islam over the past decade as influence from AQ and the Taliban have spread into it. It reflects an apocalyptic thought that engaging two nuclear powers when you barely have enough for one is a winnable scenario.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - Ceasefire holds with Iran

    - Operations continue against Hamas, likely picking up intensity as resources are redirected from the Iran effort.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Senior Hamxs official Taher al-Nunu: No hostages will be released and no ceasefire deal will be accepted unless the following demands are met:

    1. Complete and permanent cessation of hostilities

    2. Full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip

    3. Complete reconstruction and unrestricted aid

    4. A prisoner exchange deal

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    Joint statement to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz:

    “Following information received today that Hamas is once again taking control of the humanitarian aid entering the northern Gaza Strip and stealing it from the civilians,

    The Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense instructed the IDF to present within 48 hours an action plan to prevent Hamas from taking over the aid.”

    NOTE - This follows videos on social media of Hamas forces riding hijacked food trucks.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    The Israeli army announces the killing of a commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan Force in a raid on the town of Barashit in southern Lebanon.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Dangerous to say that things are ‘settling down’, but with the intense actions against Iran now at a ceasefire, Hezbollah and Syria subdued, the main game is Hamas. Though operations against Hamas apparently slowed during the 12 day war, they are now picking up again. I expect to see them ramp up even further as Wickoff starts pressuring for a new ceasefire/hostage agreement. Given Hama’s hard line stance (see above), it is unlikely that they will cede any thing towards a deal. At this stage the only way to force the matter is militarily .

    Israeli domination of Iranian airspace will permit operation of Israeli long range drones for some time to come. They could also come equipped with strike missiles for pinpoint attacks as being done in Lebanon. Follow - on peace talks will depend heavily on who’s in charge in Iran where there appears to be dissension between the warhawks and more moderate elements.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

    After over a week in hiding, Ayatollah Khamenei came out of his hole and told the world Iran was victorious in the 12 day war. Officials claim Khamenei is sheltering in a bunker without electronic communication to avoid assassination.

    ***
    Iranian Revolutionary Guard: We will not retreat for a single moment in the pursuit of America’s withdrawal from the region and the destruction of Israel.

    ***
    Iran’s nuclear facilities were “badly damaged” by US and Israeli strikes, foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei told Al Jazeera English on Wednesday.

    ***
    Reports of air defense activity in various cities in Iran due to drone activity - likely Israeli long range recon drones. Their presence is not banned by the current ceasefire.

    ***
    President Pezeshkian has seized the moment, calling the current situation a “golden opportunity for change” while hardliners attack the legitimacy of the surprise cease-fire.

    Four senior officials confirmed that rival factions are now battling for control of Iran’s future direction.

    Source: Iranian State TV/NYT

    https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1938074438408237084?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/25/2025 5:45:01 AM PDT · 653 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Fingers getting a relief from the past few days typing


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
    - New no king style protest for July 17th

    A top far-left city official in southeast Los Angeles County is now under federal investigation after allegedly posting a video on social media calling on Mexican gangs to mobilize against ICE agents. If this isn’t textbook insurrectionist behavior, it’s hard to imagine what is.

    Fox News reporter Bill Melugin broke the story on X late Tuesday afternoon. He stated that Cudahy Vice Mayor Cynthia Gonzalez is under investigation for urging 18th Street and Florencia 13 gang members to defend their territory against ICE, reportedly telling gang leaders to “get your f***ing members in order.”

    https://x.com/BillMelugin_/status/1937577489099878740

    OBSERVATION - Another instance of a democrat leader calling for violence.

    ***
    Portland (June 24) — Federal agents quickly shut down the Antifa riot after they attempt to move on the property to try to attack the ICE facility again in the ongoing insurrection.

    https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1937774241740357699?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

    OBSERVATION - Expect this low level activity to continue for a long time. Numbers of Antifa are not too significant.


    Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - July 4, a very symbolic day for the US could trigger terror attacks on celebrants by Iranian supporting elements.

    US arrests 11 Iranians in US illegally, Homeland Security says. Some were key suspects in potential Iranian terror cells.


    Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

    Oil prices are dropping further, and stocks are rallying worldwide Tuesday on hopes that Israel’s war with Iran will not damage the global flow of crude, even if a tentative truce seemed to fray under fire in the morning. A barrel of benchmark U.S. oil fell 4.9% to $65.12. Brent crude, the international standard, dropped 4.8% to $67.14.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    USS Ford CSG to be deployed to the European theater.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    Lawmakers agreed to table the measure in a 344–79 vote. A vote to table is a procedural mechanism allowing House members to vote against consideration of a bill without having to vote on the bill itself.

    The resolution was offered by Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, who was infamously ejected from Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress earlier this year for repeatedly interrupting the president.

    A majority of House Democrats joined Republican lawmakers to kill Green’s resolution, a sign of how politically caustic the effort appears to be. Just 79 Democrats voted to proceed with the impeachment vote, while 128 voted to halt it in its tracks.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/128-democrats-join-house-gop-block-progressives-bid-impeach-trump

    OBSERVATION - The tea leaves say Trump has tremendous support for his handling of the Iran / Israel war to include bombing Fordow and other sites. For the democrats to pursue an impeachment would only force their polls into single digit range.

    ***
    Zohran Mamdani has won the NYC Democratic mayoral primary.
    Mamdani is a Shia Muslim, a co-founder of Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), and a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
    He supports creating city-owned grocery stores and has been a strong advocate for defunding the police.
    Mamdani has played a leading role in anti-Israel protests.
    He has stated that if elected mayor, he would have Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrested if he visited New York.

    OBSERVATION -
    IF elected in the general election - which right now looks likely - NYC will be overwhelmed by such a flood of filth it will become unlivable. Besides the classic socialism bent, radical Islam will rise to the surface and all the repression it brings with it - just look at London for an example.


    TRUMP Watch –

    Trump arrived at The Hague Royal Palace for the NATO Summit
    Some news sources are suggesting that the agenda for the summit has been tailored to meet Trump’s agenda and objectives in order to prevent him from departing early as he did the G7.


    Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Threat status remains elevated due to ongoing Israeli / Iranian conflict

    American hospitals and essential infrastructure are reportedly on alert, anticipating Iran-backed cyberattacks in response to the US strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing informed sources.
    In the days since the Saturday strikes, the US power grid’s cyberthreat-sharing monitor has reportedly begun monitoring the dark web for signs of Iranian activity, and hospital executives have been briefed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

    While Iran and Israel are abiding by a shaky ceasefire agreement, experts have warned that Tehran may still seek revenge against the US for its involvement in the war, beyond attacks on US bases in the region. Cyberattacks allow Tehran to target the US in a way that is not limited by the countries’ geographical distance and follows a previous pattern of the regime. The FBI blamed Tehran for a 2021 cyberattack against a Boston children’s hospital.

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-858910

    OBSERVATIONS - The threats from Iran are not yet over. Cyberattacks can provide a level of immunity to Iran due to the often anonymous nature of the attackers.


    Russia -

    Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    *****
    Logistics –

    Analysts are noting that Russian production of tanks for the war - mostly rehabbed older, mothballed vehicles - at about 130 per month is likely to hit the wall within a year. Storage of outdated equipment is running out as is material to upgrade their systems for battle. This is a continuation of a logistics deadline noted last year saying 2026 could spell the end of Russia’s capabilities to supply heavy equipment to the front.


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 50-70 range, widely scattered rain.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Ukraine neutralized 52 out of 71 Russian drones overnight on June 25. Launched from multiple directions, including occupied Crimea, the drones were intercepted by air defense, EW units, and mobile fire groups.

    Russian losses per 25/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

    +950 men
    +1 tank
    +6 AFVs
    +58 artillery
    +1 MLRS

    Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Yalta village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

    Summary —

    Slower day both in the drone wars as well as on the ground. The vaunted Russian spring/summer offensive is fizzling out if it even existed to begin with.

    At this stage, it is uncertain what immediate impact losses of Iranian drone manufacturing facilities and missile factories will have on the Russian efforts. Russia has established its own Shahed factories and N Korea has been producing large numbers of missiles, so the logistics loss from Iran may not be felt significantly. Russian hopes for additional productions sources in Iran does appear to be on hold for at least years.

    AFA any peace talks, very little movement if any.


    Europe / NATO General –

    NATO Secretary General: Today we will decide to raise defense spending to 5% of members’ GDP.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - Iran launches some drones towards Israel in violation of the cease fire, all shot down.

    - Focus increases on Gaza operations.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Israeli Air Forces: The Air Force intercepted two unmanned aerial vehicles earlier this evening that were making their way towards the country’s territory, apparently from Iran. The interceptions were carried out outside the country’s territory. Alerts were activated in open areas according to policy

    The US asked Israel not to respond

    ***
    Trump claims that a breakthrough will soon happen in Gaza.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    IAF activity increasing in part due to more aircraft available.

    IED kills 7 Israeli soldiers

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Drone strikes take out more Hezbollah leaders

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    With action against Iran still simmering, Israeli life is progressing back to a level of normal. Though damaged by Iranian missiles, the damage and loss of life were far lower than anticipated by the military and govt officials. Iran continues to toe the line and Israel maintains restraint at the US’ request.

    The focus returns to Gaza and the continued reduction of Hamas forces and controlled areas. As the IDF has moved into more deeply controlled areas by Hamas, resistance has also increased. Witkoff is making his presence known once again, so Israel will be redoubling its actions to eliminate Hamas and cleanse Gaza of its military infrastructure. Witkoff / Trump may be seeking to impose a ceasefire on the Gaza action in a similar manner to Iran. Right now, neither side is expressing any interest in a ceasefire/hostage release scenario, so it is questionable what proposals will work other than Trump heavy handedly forcing Israel to stop. In his drive to be a world peacemaker, Trump may exert this pressure sooner rather than later.

    Lebanon / Hezbollah continues as in past weeks. Hezbollah leader pops up and taken out with a drone strike

    Syria - talks continue with the new regime in Syria over land being held by Israel. Seems Israel is willing to pull out of most of Syrian held territory with the exception of Mt Hermon.

    Houthis have been relatively silent, given the essential surrender of Iran

    Iranian supported militias in Iraq holding their fire, seeing essentially non support from Iran.

    NOTE - The situation is still volatile and things can quickly change - especially in regards to Iran.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

    Resumption of negotiations?

    Witkoff: In the negotiations, Iran will not be able to enrich uranium, that’s an absolute red line

    Iran: We will not give up on enrichment, this is an absolute red line.

    Where have we heard this song before

    ***
    Iran is celebrating its ‘victory’ with parades and fireworks

    ***
    Iran has demanded payment from the United States to compensate for the damage caused by last weekend’s B-2 bomber strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
    Iranian deputy Foreign Minister Khatibzadeh says that Iran will pursue diplomatic and legal channels for the compensation.

    ***
    The Iranian Parliament has officially passed a bill to suspend all further cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

    ***
    Commentary on Iran’s actions -

    There are many people out there that seem to think that the Iranians have essentially surrendered by agreeing to this ceasefire, but that is not the case at all. The Iranians still hate the United States, they still hate Israel, and they still plan to move forward with their nuclear program. Ultimately, their long-term goals have not changed at all. But a ceasefire is certainly strategically advantageous for the Iranians at this moment, and so they eagerly embraced President Trump’s proposal. Unfortunately, those that believe that this ceasefire is the end of the story are way off base.

    In the western world, we tend to view a ceasefire as a complete cessation of hostilities that leads to permanent peace.

    But in Islam, a ceasefire is viewed very differently.

    Islamic law allows for a temporary “tactical pause” in hostilities known as a “Hudna”, and it is considered to be a time to rearm and regroup in order to continue the fight later.

    https://discernreport.com/do-the-iranians-view-this-ceasefire-as-a-temporary-tactical-pause-known-as-a-hudna-in-islam/

    OBSERVATION - This has been apparent time and time again. Hamas has played this card on the short term since Oct 7. Egypt and others utilized the 1967 ceasefire to prepare for the 1973 Yon Kippor war. Just two of many examples. This cycle will repeat as long as the mullahs rule the country.

    ****
    The latest reports out of CNN, NBC and other lame stream media, is that they saw a brief preliminary assessment of the bombing of Iranian nuclear sites. Allegedly, the bombing only set the Iranian nuclear program back a few months.
    Claims based on a ‘leaked’ report from Defense Intelligence Agency sources.

    Lets cut thru the crap. DIA could not produce such a definitive document in only a couple days. Reports say it is only 5 pages long. Hardly a through evaluation. Second, the report that was called by the MSM as ‘Top Secret’ would have been classified far higher - Special Compartmented Information - under codeword classification. Yes there are stupid deep state drones that would risk decades in jail for such a release, but it is doubtful that they could have done it on such short notice. Here are the facts

    - Surface support structures for the construction of components of a bomb are a pile of smoldering rubble.

    - Underground facilities holding the centrifuges - especially those at Fordow - are highly sensitive devices and the pressures and shaking from the explosions of MOPs took out most if not all of them - particularly those outside the immediate blast area. A concrete tunnel structure served to funnel the explosive forces all along the gallery.

    - Damages to entry tunnels and other subsurface structures will need substantial repairs and reinforcements before the facilities will be safe to enter to allow ANY restart of any operations.

    There are more, but the bottom line is this has pushed the development efforts back at least a half dozen years because Iran will need that long to rebuild facilities.

    The alleged DIA report should be considered with a grain of salt. Especially if CNN and the NYTs are the one leading on it.

    One question remains - what happened to the 60% enriched uranium? Did Iran ferret it out before the bombs fell (unlikely to a degree, given the overwhelming surprise of the attack). Or is it buried under tons of rubble?

    If they were able to relocate it to another place, Iran would still need advanced centrifuges to bring the concentration to 90%. Then it would need all the rubbled facilities up and running to further put together a bomb. I suspect the Mossad has a pretty tight location on the material and can strike as needed to prevent further enrichment. Any physical strike could create a radioactive hazard zone.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/24/2025 6:31:35 AM PDT · 648 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Crazy 24 hours and it hasn’t stopped.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
    - New no king style protest for July 17th

    The ‘no kings’ mob is now trying to organize another protest for July 17th. Details as they develop.


    Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - July 4, a very symbolic day for the US could trigger terror attacks on celebrants by Iranian supporting elements.

    DHS Issues National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
    There are currently no specific credible threats against the homeland

    NOTE - Even though there is a shaky ceasefire in effect, Iran continues to be unfettered to pursue asymmetric attacks via various types of terror acts here and across the world. Potential for attacks remains very high.


    Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

    Oil prices dropped 10% or so following the anemic revenge attack on US forces in Qatar. Reinforce now by the ceasefire.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    President Trump launched Midnight Hammer over the weekend. B-2 Bombers from Missouri struck the Iranian nuclear facilities of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in a strike that was executed with precision and total secrecy. Ohio-class submarines launched a barrage of Tomahawk missiles to ensure no air defense systems could endanger the bombing run. The Republican leadership was informed about the strikes—the Democrats were not.

    Or at least that was the initial story. You know this would be a point of contention with the media. I couldn’t care less, but White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt cleared the air, saying the White House did try to contact Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), leader of the House Democrats, but he didn’t pick up the phone:

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2025/06/23/the-trump-white-house-tried-to-call-this-top-democrat-about-the-iran-strikes-heres-what-happened-n2659277#google_vignette

    BTW - Schumer managed to pick up the phone.


    Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Threat status remains elevated due to ongoing Israeli / Iranian conflict


    Illegal Immigration –

    The US Supreme Court has cleared the way for President Donald Trump’s administration to resume deportations of migrants to countries other than their homeland.

    By 6-3, the justices reversed a lower court order requiring the government to give migrants a “meaningful opportunity” to tell officials what risks they might face being deported to a third country.


    China -

    Chinese workers across industries are facing salary cuts and layoffs as mounting economic woes engulf China’s public and private sectors, sources tell Radio Free Asia.

    That’s forcing families to slash spending. It is also triggering deflationary concerns as businesses enter into desperate price wars.
    Economist Wu Qinxue warned that the current situation highlights continued decline in local governments’ fiscal levels and is not just a temporary belt-tightening.

    “The (local) government has no money to manage people, and no one is willing to spend money,” he said. “From salary cuts within the system to the collapse of consumption among ordinary people, the entire society is quietly forming a top-down (consumer belt-) ‘tightening chain.’”

    https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/06/widespread-pay-cuts-in-china-drive-down-consumer-spending-fuel-deflationary-fears/#google_vignette

    OBSERVATION - China’s economy continues to implode in the post wuhan world. Makes Xi’s plans for regional dominance and retaking of Taiwan that much more difficult and costly.


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 50-70 range, widely scattered rain.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Russia launched 97 Shahed-type drones overnight, - Ukrainian Air Forces. Numerous ballistic missile strikes also noted.

    Summary —

    Current info on the war buried under the rush of items on the Israeli / Iran war. However, evidence is that apart from an increase in ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv and other main cities, fighting otherwise has remained relatively stable as it has for months. No threats of a Russian breakthrough anywhere along the lines.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - Ceasefire with Iran holding by thinest margin

    - Iran fired missile in violation, Israel with a restrained retaliatory strike.

    - Trump tells Israel to hold fire.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    The big question is will Iran hold to the ceasefire.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    IAF hit numerous targets throughout Gaza

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    After announcing they would shut down shipping thru the Red Sea, Houthis have been quiet and no attacks on shipping have occurred

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Attention shifts back to Gaza and the elimination of Hamas. See Iran below on the latest in that fight.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

    Things exploded (literally) in a fast and furious manner yesterday.

    Early on Qatari Foreign Ministry announced closure of its airspace. Other gulf nations followed suit as indicators pointed to an imminent rocket attack from Iran towards US bases in the region.

    Iran then launched 14 (one for each of the MOPs dropped by the US - according to Iran) towards the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Later, it was announced that this airbase was the only one in the region that was attacked. 13 of the 14 were taken down by Patriot systems, the 14th missed the base entirely and no word on where it impacted.

    As time went on, it became apparent that this attack was one ‘allowed’ so that Iran could ‘save face’ in the light of the US airstrikes and Israel’s dominating the airspace. Iranian sources to the New York Times: Tehran coordinated the attack with the US and Qatar to minimize the damage. Iran needed the ability to respond “symbolically” but allow the US to get out of it. The sources noted that this is a similar pattern of action to Iran’s revenge response for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 in launches against the Ain al-Assad base in Iraq.

    Trump later said he was ok with this so that Iran could “get it out of its system”. Accordingly, Trump said there would be no US retaliation - kinda a no blood, no foul.

    Ceasefire -

    Following the Qatar attack, Trump declared that Iran was willing to go into a ceasefire, Israel was caused to comply. In the waining hour before the start of the ceasefire, Iran launched about 14 missiles towards Israel. In some of the final missile attacks a 7 story apt bldg in Beer Sheba was struck. Mass casualties and 5 deaths reported.

    A couple hours into the ceasefire, two ballistic missiles were launched from Iran at Israel. Both were intercepted, and violated the agreement.

    After initially telling Israel not to respond, according to the
    Times of Israel - “After Trump and Netanyahu speak, Israeli jets carry out a strike on Iranian radar in response to ballistic missile attack”

    — - - Iranian Attacks on Israel - - -

    Initial numbers count on the Iranian response towards Israel over the past 12 days

    A total of about 500 missiles were launched at Israel.

    The interception rate is about 83%

    The direct hit rate is about 6%

    An additional 11% fell in open areas.

    Hundreds of launchers and hundreds of missiles were destroyed on Iranian soil

    Dozens of ballistic missiles exploded during launch or fell on the way.

    It should be noted that according to Iranian planning, the goal was to launch nearly 1000 missiles within hours of the start of a war - a plan that was thwarted by the IDF. In fact, they barely reached this number within 12 days.

    The number of casualties on the home front was 97% lower than initial estimates, thanks to the practical dismantling of the ballistic missile system, which will take years to rebuild.

    - - - - Israeli Strikes - - - -

    IAF continued to hammer Iran up to the ceasefire. Israel’s destruction of Iranian air defenses will continue to permit it virtually unfettered access for a considerable time in the future, should they need to attack again.

    Israel effectively beheaded the Iranian military leadership as well as the principle nuclear scientists leading the program for the development of the bomb.

    - - - - Overall Observations - - - -

    Although Iran is beating its chest claiming complete victory over Israel, the other nations in the regions know otherwise. Iran got its butt handed to them. Iran could not muster any of the retaliatory threats it has made over the years. While perhaps not totally eliminating every piece of equipment associated with a nuclear development program, it is going to take Iran years and billions and billions of dollars to recover should it desire to continue to work towards a bomb. On top of that, multiple billions of dollars to rebuild its military’s ballistic missile corps and production, along with develop a air defense network to protect its nuclear sites.

    Economically, a lot of infrastructure was hit - petroleum industry mainly - to force Iran to divert billions to fix their oil industry. Essentially the only means of income revenue that it will rely upon if it wants to pursue its nuclear program again.

    Iran’s proxy war fighting network is also at a disadvantage. Cut off from Iranian money and material, they will be unable to do very much in the near and intermediate term. Hamas is dying, Hezbollah nearly completely cut off and withering as it struggles to develop new support measures. Houthi’s time is limited as their ability to construct new missiles was heavily dependent on Iran as well as now lacking money to fix its economic base. Finally, Iranian backed militias in Iraq are having to dial it back, again, no money and munitions and Iraqi elements beginning to leverage their new power against them.

    With all that said, Iran in the near term is still an unconventional threat to the US, via cyber and terrorist strikes. Just like they threw the missile in violation of the ceasefire, they could launch these attacks with a one off level of protection in a way - “we didn’t do that” kind of claim, one they’ve worked out for decades via proxy elements. Of the two, the most dangerous towards Iran would be activation of terror cells. Trumps actions so far indicate that he wouldn’t tolerate such an action and would hit Iran. More likely cyber issues as well as much smaller scale terror - ‘lone wolf’ attacks motivated by cells and radicalization as well as smaller, but numerous infrastructure failures. Even potential use of forest fires and related late this summer.

    Will this ceasefire hold? Depends on if the powers that be making the decisions in Iran remain the ones making the decisions. Should they violate the ceasefire in a more signifiant or consistent way, Israel will strike back , with or without Trump’s blessing.


    Iraq -

    Iraqi channels are now reporting that another air-defense radar has been struck at Imam Ali Air Base in the Dhi Qar Governorate of Southern Iraq, making this the fourth U.S/Iraqi military base to have targeted tonight by drones and the second air-defense radar to have been destroyed.

    OBSERVATION - No specific details on who launched the attacks, but believed to be Iranian backed militias in Iraq.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/23/2025 10:01:11 AM PDT · 647 of 662
    Godzilla to All

    BREAKING: Initial reports of three impacts at the U.S. base in Al-Udeid

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/23/2025 9:58:21 AM PDT · 646 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Already noted. Iran has fired on bases in Qatar and Iraq.

    US and European jets reportedly in the air over the gulf.

    Iran has poked the hornets nest.

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/23/2025 7:51:49 AM PDT · 642 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Back for the rest of the week except for next Friday and Saturday (possibly Sunday)


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025

    SUPER UW a notorious student group at the University of Washington that was previously suspended for causing over $1 million in damages in an anti-Semitic occupation of a campus building, has escalated its agenda to not only call for violence, but to also teach it.

    On June 5, 2025, the group held a “Teach-in” in which they praised terrorist organizations, downplayed atrocities, and advocated for armed violence as a “scientific necessity.”

    The hosts also conducted a scripted reading aimed at Israelis: “As for you, the children of pigs, you will have only death, and your demise is just around the corner.” Reportedly, the audience applauded in agreement.

    https://mrctv.org/blog/james-mortensen/pro-hamas-group-promotes-violence-scientific-necessity-university-washington

    ***
    Portland (June 21) — Federal agents rushed in to make arrests of Antifa rioters who continue their daily attempted siege of the ICE building. The city has allowed Antifa to build an encampment nearby to recruit rioters.

    https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1936791907385893223?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

    OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
    Antifa and the violent left are digging in on exploiting ICE operations in urban areas while growing supporters from pro-islamic elements festering on US colleges and universities.
    ICE protests have dwindled to ANTIFA home base cities. Leftist friendly Washington becoming ground zero for the jihadists.

    Latest on the radar are efforts by 50501 to stimulate “No War” protests. These are along the same lines of the recent “no kings” rallies.

    Near term, there are no significant triggering events foreseen. ‘No Kings’ failed to provide Antifa with momentum to continue their violence on a national level. Response to bombing Iran doesn’t appear to have triggered much either.


    Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Iran could activate cells in the US.

    DHS Issues National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
    There are currently no specific credible threats against the homeland

    WASHINGTON – Today, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem issued a National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) Bulletin regarding a heightened threat environment across the United States due to the direct involvement of the United States in the ongoing conflict between the nations of Israel and Iran. There are currently no specific credible threats against the homeland.

    “It is our duty to keep the nation safe and informed, especially during times of conflict,” said Secretary Kristi Noem. “The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict brings the possibility of increased threat to the homeland in the form of possible cyberattacks, acts of violence, and antisemitic hate crimes.”

    This NTAS Bulletin will expire on September 22, 2025. The public should report any suspicious activity or threats of violence to local law enforcement, FBI Field Offices, or a local Fusion Center.

    RELATED
    Iran also has a long-standing commitment to target U.S. government officials it views as responsible for the death of an Iranian military commander killed in January 2020.

    OBSERVATION -
    Iran has long threatened asymmetrical attacks against the US and US interests in the event of the US striking it. Iran has made similar threats toward Israel and so far they have not panned out. In this case, biden let in hundreds if not thousands of middle easterners with probable terror affiliations into the country, where they can blend into the existing mob of middle eastern ‘immigrants’. The US is a target rich environment with a lot of soft targets and spread thin intel an law enforcement capabilities. The FBI has said they are monitoring activities, but this is not a guarantee that they will be able to preempt an event.
    Keep your heads on a swivel and maintain heightened situational awareness.

    ***
    A gunman wearing a tactical vest and carrying two guns targeted a suburban Detroit church Sunday morning, firing shots into the building’s exterior during a special vacation Bible School service before he was run over by one person and then fatally shot by church security.

    Police have not yet publicly identified the suspect. Kelly said he was not aware of the shooter’s identity but said the attacker does not appear to be a member.

    OBSERVATION - Confusing info on this attacker. Failure to release info in the past has indicated that the attacker is of a ‘protected class’ - i.e. either islamist or LGBT, liberal etc. Rumors suggest a moslem from nearby enclaves. Other reports of a disgruntled attendee.

    Noting this event here until attacker’s ID has been released and verified.


    Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

    Oil prices are expected to spike today upon threats of closure attempts by Iran of the Straits of Hormuz. Global markets also down due to the same threat.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    Two carrier strike groups, the USS Nimitz and USS Vinson, are now in the Middle East

    ***
    US 5th Fleet HQ is based in Al-Juffair, Bahrain.
    Ships were no longer seen in port at Al-Juffair earlier this week.

    ***

    The U.S. has positioned five ballistic missile defense-capable guided-missile destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea as Iranian forces launch salvos of ballistic missiles against Israel, a defense official confirmed to USNI News.

    Two guided-missile destroyers, based in Rota, Spain — USS Paul Ignatius (DDG-117) and USS Oscar Austin (DDG-79) — entered the Mediterranean, joining three other BMD-capable destroyers in the region, the defense official said. Ship spotters observed Paul Ignatius leaving Rota on Tuesday.

    USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51), USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116) and USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) were operating in the Eastern Mediterranean as Monday, according to the USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker. In addition, the U.S. has two guided-missile destroyers operating in the Red Sea — USS Forrest Sherman (DDG-98) and USS Truxtun (DDG-103).
    All five destroyers in the Mediterranean can detect and intercept ballistic missiles with Standard Missile 3s. Paul Ignatius, Oscar Austin and Arleigh Burke are part of the Navy’s forward-deployed naval forces based in Rota. The five destroyers in Rota are part of the European Phased Adaptive Approach for ballistic missile defense to defend Europe against Iranian missiles.

    https://news.usni.org/2025/06/20/5-u-s-ballistic-missile-defense-destroyers-now-in-the-mediterranean-sea

    ***
    Not fully confirmed by my view but the United States is reportedly moving B-2 bombers to the Pacific island of Guam, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Saturday. If true, this may be the destination of the the westward moving B2s used for the deception ploy.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    Democrats were foaming at the mouth over the B2 strikes. They seemed to be silenced due to clips of 0bama and his record of bombing as well as the billions shipped in cargo planes to Iran.

    ***
    A rumble has been ongoing tha past week between anti-semitic “woke” so called conservatives and followers of Trump’ MAGA program. The woke elements appear to be trying to co-opt the MAGA agenda from Trump over his support towards Israel, claiming it is not ‘America First’.


    INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

    The State Department has issued a worldwide security alert for U.S. citizens and interests abroad.

    The U.S. State Department has issued security warnings for Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Iraq.

    Due to regional events, U.S. government personnel in Türkiye have been cautioned to maintain a low profile and instructed to avoid personal travel to the U.S. Consulate Adana consular district, which comprises Türkiye’s 22 southeastern most provinces. Negative sentiment toward U.S. foreign policy may prompt actions against U.S. or Western interests in Türkiye. In the past, such activities have included demonstrations, calls for boycotts of U.S. businesses, anti-U.S. rhetoric, and graffiti. Large gatherings may result in enhanced police presence, road closures, and traffic disruptions. Any gathering, even those intended to be peaceful, could escalate and turn violent on short notice.


    TRUMP Watch –

    In a White House address on the evening of June 21, President Donald Trump touted the success of a series of U.S. strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, and warned of even greater attacks to come should Iran choose to retaliate.

    “Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor [of terrorism]. Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success,” Trump announced.

    As he delivered his White House address, Trump warned Iran not to continue fighting.

    “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier,” the president said.

    Trump said there are many targets left in Iran, but the ones that U.S. forces struck on Saturday were the most difficult.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/after-us-strikes-trump-threatens-far-greater-attacks-if-iran-doesnt-make-peace-5876476?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

    OBSERVATION - Iran misjudged Trump’s resolve on this. Hope they don’t this time.

    Remember, Iran attacked us in 1979 and has continued thru today via its puppet proxy groups.


    Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Threat status remains elevated due to ongoing Israeli / Iranian conflict

    The ongoing Iran conflict is causing a heightened threat environment in the United States. Low-level cyber attacks against U.S. networks by pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely, and cyber actors affiliated with the Iranian government may conduct attacks against U.S. networks.


    Illegal Immigration –

    Nearly HALF the Iranians caught at the southern border were released into the United States by The Biden Administration. -Fox News


    Russia -

    Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    *****

    Iran’s foreign minister headed to Moscow late Sunday night to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the wake of U.S. strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

    The Daily Telegraph reports Abbas Araghchi confirmed Iran “reserves all options to defend its security, its interests, its people…All options are on the table” while applauding Russia as “a friend of Iran.”

    His visit to Russia will raise significant concerns over what kind of support Moscow is willing to offer Tehran at this moment, which could include sending defence materials, getting involved directly militarily or throwing diplomatic weight behind Iran, the Telegraph report stated.

    But to what extent will the Russians be willing to intervene?

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/06/22/irans-foreign-minister-heading-for-moscow-talks-with-putin/

    NUCLEAR THREATS –

    Following the historic attack on Iranian nuclear sites former Russian President wrote a long thread on X condemning the US military strike.

    Medvedev says there are “a number of foreign countries” ready to supply the Iranian regime with nuclear weapons.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/06/russias-medvedev-blasts-trump-after-iranian-military-strikes/

    OBSERVATION - Who will these nations be?


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 50-70 range, widely scattered rain.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Russia launched 352 Shahed-type drones(approximately 160 of them with explosive warhead), 11 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 5 Iskander-K cruise missiles, - Ukrainian Air Forces
    Attacks centered mostly on Kyiv and surrounding regions. At least seven people have reportedly been killed and several injured in the overnight attack in the Kyiv region, the interior minister has said.

    Russian losses per 23/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

    +1010 men
    +1 tank
    +5 AFVs
    +58 artillery
    +2 MLRS

    Summary —

    Russia maintains an overall high level of drone / missile attacks on Kyiv and Ukraine in general.

    On the ground, action doesn’t appear to resemble an organized offensive as announced by Russia. Observers note that Russia does appear to be pulsing its attacks to bring a larger force locally to the front, then pausing to regroup. Very little progress has been made by Russia and in some cases, Ukraine has locally counterattacked and regained territory. The battle sees poorly trained Russian infantry facing the fury of Ukrainian drones.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - Ongoing airstrikes across Iran

    - Ongoing airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza

    - Bodies of at least three murdered hostages recovered over the weekend.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    Netanyahu, in an address to the nation on the status of the overall fighting noted that he hasn’t taken his eyes off the efforts in Gaza. Smooth operations against Iran have freed up aircraft to intensify bombing of Gaza targets.

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    Syria hasn’t challenged Israel’s operations that intercept Iranian drones and missiles over its territory.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    See Iraq on rumblings of potential attacks on US elements.

    Houthis declare the Red Sea to be closed to shipping.

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    U.S. Embassy in Qatar urges all American citizens to shelter in place until further notice, according to Reuters

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    See Iran below. Hezbollah staying to the sidelines and Hamas being chewed up.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

    Quick summary of the Operation Midnight Hammer B2 attacks on Iran’s three main nuclear sites — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

    US sent a widely reported flight of about 6 B2s westward from the US, even with reports of a refueling pattern that would be expected from fully loaded bombers. Meanwhile, much earlier and with great secrecy, a group of 7 B2s (each with 2 MOPs) linked up with tankers and a fighter escort and flew east.

    About the time the westbound bombers reached refueling sites near Hawaii, the strike force was virtually over Iran and executing its attack with great precision.
    Six bombers struck Fordow. It appears from post strike satellite photos that there are six very clear and large/deep craters along the ridge line over the centrifuge gallery. The pattern suggests that a double strike was used - the first to do initial penetration, and the second to finish the job. It also appears that the strike locations took advantage of ventilation shafts the further weakened the bedrock.

    Analysis by The Institute for Science and International Security: Hi-res satellite images of Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant reveal six penetration holes from U.S. GBU-57 bombs near ventilation shafts, enabling an easier pathway for the MOPS to the deeply buried halls.

    Debris visible on mountain slopes also suggests severe damage or destruction of enrichment halls. Tunnel entrances had been filled by Iran beforehand, anticipating an attack.

    https://x.com/osint613/status/1936974071113121896?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

    The 7th B2 dropped its ordinance on Natanz

    A cruise missile submarine supported the attack by firing about 14 tomahawk missiles at Natanz, and Isfahan.

    In total, 75 precision munitions were dropped during the operation and 125 US military aircraft participated in it.

    US alerted the Gulf countries before the attack on Iran, amid fears of retaliation against American targets in their territories

    - - - - Straits of Hormuz - - - -

    The Iranian parliament has unanimously reached the decision to close the Strait of Hormuz.
    The final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

    The British Maritime Transport Authority reported serious disruptions to the GPS system in the Strait of Hormuz.

    The countries that heavily rely on oil passing through this strait include:

    1. China – largest single importer of oil through the Strait
    2.India
    3.Japan
    4.South Korea
    5.Singapore

    Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would significantly harm China, one of Iran’s closest allies — the last thing Tehran wants right now.

    https://x.com/immeme0/status/1936814227873792289?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

    — - - Iranian Attacks on Israel - - -

    Iran’s vaunted missile capabilities have been severely degraded. Missile attacks now generally consist of salvos of less than 10, quite often only a few missiles with longer time in between. This makes it easy for Israeli defenses to intercept threatening missiles.

    - - - - Israeli Strikes - - - -

    IAF continues free range over Iran. They appear to have come up with the formula to nail Iranian missile firing locations. In many instances just before launch, taking out launcher and reload missiles. Fixed missile sites continue to be hammered as well.

    Over the weekend, IAF did target some Iranian naval vessels. This action may increase if a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz is attempted.

    - - - - Other - - - -

    Iran’s Foreign Minister:
    There is no point in asking Iran to return to the negotiating table. The door to diplomacy is no longer open.

    - - - - Estimated future actions - - - -

    Iran’s leadership, both civil and military, are in disarray. The entrance of the US into the fight - so far in a limited manner - has further put Iran into a corner. Iran is a wounded animal and right now the jihadists are still running the show and may soon move towards the apocalyptic.

    1 Missile strikes against US bases in the region
    2 Attempt to close off the Straits of Hormuz
    3 Attempt to seize / attacking shipping in the Persian gulf
    4 Activate terror cells in the US (and Europe)
    5 Cyber attacks

    The US strike ripped open the fact that Iran is very much exposed and should it attempt action against US interests, they better pay attention to Trump’s warning. They didn’t last time.

    This includes an attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz. Things have changed significantly since Iran last attempted this. First, note that the US is far more independent than it was in the past. Second, those dependent on oil passage include at the top of the list China - who has been speaking loudly in Iran’s ear and who the mullah’s have been attempting to curry favor from. Second, the big missile threat of Iran has been severely hammered. The threat does remain of shorter ranged missiles and anti-ship systems that Iran has embedded all over the area, much like their medium to long range missiles

    Israel will continue to reduce Iranian military assets associated with ballistic missile firing as well as production, associated sites for manufacturing nuclear bomb components and infrastructure. Iran’s missile threat has been reduced to something like what happened to Hezbollah - attempts for a lucky strike from a handful of missiles. As Iran loses more launcher and launch facilities, the missile threat will decrease.

    Of final note, there was talk of “regime change’ going around the political circles. The elements of the so called ‘woke’ right claiming we are going down the same road as Iraq and Afghanistan. They are making a false equivalency. Iraq and Afghanistan were boots on the ground from the start operations. Iran OTOH has been just a single, major tactical strike. Any regime change inferred to by Trump contextually refers to the Iranians doing the work, not US ground forces imposing a change. The son of the Shah is trying to organize a resistance element to overthrow the mullahs, the world would be better with the islamists tossed to the curb.


    Iraq -

    Rumint. American military and intelligence officials have detected signs that Iran-backed militias are preparing to attack U.S. bases in Iraq, and possibly Syria, in retaliation for the U.S. strikes in Iran. But so far the groups have held off, and Iraqi officials are working hard to dissuade militia action, a U.S. official said on Sunday. -NYT

    OBSERVATION - If they get froggy, Trump has made it clear that an attack by an Iranian proxy would be considered an attack by Iran itself. Iraq is wisely trying to get them to calm down.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/22/2025 6:39:52 AM PDT · 641 of 662
    Godzilla to DAVEY CROCKETT

    There are multiple reasons First is that, though making a big bang, 2.5 tons of explosive has to connect a seismic wave to the bedrock and generate enough energy to be seen by seismometers usually hundreds of miles away. Associated with this is the very shallowness of the explosions. 300 feet deep and the method of blast upwards reduce the coupling with the bedrock.

    Second, most seismic reporting stations, like those surrounding iran, are set to report events usually mag of 2.5 or higher. The MOP will not appear as a source that large. There is a possibility that as seismic signal was recorded, but it would be very slight on the recorder.

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/17/2025 6:39:19 AM PDT · 635 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Expect no posts tomorrow thru Sunday. Out in the hills.

    I may get a post on the Israel / Iran conflict out tomorrow, but not certain.


    Globalism / Great Reset –

    Donald Trump torpedoed a joint G7 statement on the Israel-Iran conflict as world leaders met in Canada on Monday, according to senior US officials.

    The Telegraph learnt that a draft document was circulated that called for both sides to protect civilians and for tight monitoring of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

    That was unacceptable to Mr Trump, who is demanding that Iran is not allowed any uranium enrichment activity and who has been one of the most outspoken of Israel’s supporters. “I can confirm that he did not sign on to the statement,” said a senior US official.

    https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2025/06/16/hold-the-line-trump-tells-g-7-to-suck-a-stone-on-israel-iran-group-statement-n3803866

    OBSERVATION - Trump upset the apple cart in Canada and left before all the photo ops. However, the reported reason for the early departure has raised serious flags on US intentions towards Iran.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025

    Things have quieted down significantly in LA and other Antifa supported, anti ICE operations. The “No King” rallies did not provide the angry and destructive demographic Antifa was hoping for to launch the anti-ICE riots nationwide. Still some violence in LA, Portland and Seattle, but its spread to other cities is not catching on.

    Their hopes for a Floyd summer of love are evaporating.

    Trumps aggressive 30 day push into sanctuary cities is still on and will likely to provide continued reasons for Antifa and anti-ICE elements to continue attacks.


    Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Iran could activate cells in the US.

    Police find a PIPE B-MB in the home of an anti-ICE activist Kevin Krebs.
    Krebs was ARRESTED at the No Kings ‘protest’ in West Chester PA on June 14th carrying a handgun, knives, and tactical gear.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed in a post earlier that he has ordered the deployment of additional military capabilities to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Area-of-Responsibility, adding that these deployments are intended to enhance our defensive posture in the Middle East.

    RELATED -

    Additional 5 tankers heading east to Europe overnight.

    AWAC enroute to CENTCOM from Okinawa

    7 air tankers moving out of Europe towards the Middle East, towing fighters. At least half are F16s

    ***
    U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) has raised the Force Protection Condition (FPCON) from Alpha to Bravo for all bases across its Area-of-Responsibility.

    ***
    Aircraft observers are reporting that a WC-135R Constant Phoenix took off overnight from Omaha, home of U.S. Strategic Command, and is now flying unusual orbits over the northern U.S.

    This is not routine.

    The Constant Phoenix is used to detect nuclear detonations and track radioactive fallout in the atmosphere. It only flies under serious circumstances—like a nuclear test, reactor breach, or suspected atomic strike.

    This plane doesn’t fly for fun. It is a nuclear event detector, equipped to sample radioactive particles after nuclear tests or reactor accidents. It exists for one job: confirming nuclear activity.

    The U.S. Air Force doesn’t “practice” with a $250M asset during a global war unless there’s a real reason. No drills have been announced. No scheduled exercises include this aircraft.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    More turmoil in the DNC as Weinstein, national teachers union president, resigns in the wake of the Hogg removal vote.


    TRUMP Watch –

    Trump cut his G7 visit short and headed back to Washington last night

    Fox News reports that U.S. President Trump has requested that the National Security Council (NSC) be in the Situation Room when he arrives at the White House later tonight from the G7 Summit in Canada.

    His refusal to sign the G7 de-escalation statement and comments about imminent action suggest military options might be discussed. However, the meeting could also focus on diplomacy or strategic planning, as no explicit confirmation of military action exists. The exact outcome remains uncertain.

    As he was leaving the G7 Summit in Canada earlier tonight to head back to Washington, U.S. President Trump posted on Truth Social,

    “Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a “cease fire” between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.”

    Trump:
    Everyone must evacuate Tehran immediately!

    Trump: Iran wants to make a deal. I don’t want to see nuclear weapons in Iran. We are on our way to ensuring that they don’t have nuclear weapons.


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 50-70, widely scattered rain.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Russia launched air attacks on Ukraine overnight — Kyiv was the main target. In total 472 assets were used.

    In total, 428 aerial threats were neutralized:
    - 239 Shahed drones shot down, 163 jammed
    - 2 Kinzhal, 15 Kh-101, 8 Kh-59/69, 1 Kh-31P missiles downed or lost

    Last night and early this morning, as the world is distracted by the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, Russia launched one of its largest and deadliest missile and drone attacks in months against the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, primarily targeting residential homes and civilian structures throughout the city. As a result of the attack, at least 14 civilians, including an American, were killed, while over a hundred others were injured, many by Shahed-type drones developed and jointly produced by Russia and Iran.

    Several fires burn and smoke rises tonight across the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, following a large-scale missile and drone attack by Russia.
    At least 14 people killed, 55 wounded as result of Russian combined drones and missiles attack in Kyiv. Preliminary ballistic missile directly hit and collapsed residential high-rise in Solomiansky district

    Russian losses per 17/06/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff

    +1060
    +1 tank
    +3 AFVs
    +20 artillery
    +1 MLRS

    Summary —

    Serious pickup of strategic attacks on Kyiv via rockets and drones.

    Things are relatively stagnant on the fronts, with moderately high Russia losses and no significant advances.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - Gaza continues to be hammered

    - Iranian missile strikes in Northern and Central Israel. Relatively few injuries

    - Iran continues calls for mediation help to stop the Israeli onslaught.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Apart from continued advances in Gaza by the IDF, the focus is on the fight with Iran covered more below.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

    PLEASE NOTE - Things have been fast and furious overt here lately and events have been already overcome by other events in many instances. Though I try, there are events I may have noted but failed to report. Highly dynamic and fluid.

    Rumint. Israel should prepare for possibility of Iran carrying out a nuclear test, says defense analyst Ron Ben-Yishai

    - - - Iranian missile strikes - - - -

    Overnight, Israeli media reports Iran’s missile batch ranged between 20 and 30 missiles.

    The decline in missiles launched from Iran:

    June 13 - 200 missiles
    June 14 - 100 missiles
    June 15 - 75 missiles
    June 16 - 30 missiles

    In the recent hours, fewer than 10 ballistic missiles were launched from Iran at Israel overnight, according to IDF assessments.

    The missiles came in three overnight attacks just after midnight, at 3:30 a.m., and 4:30 a.m.
    There were no reports of impacts in urban areas or injuries.

    Iranian media hyped up a significant attack last night, however, it was one of the smallest since Friday.

    Israeli officials say Iran’s drop in ballistic missile launches over the past 24 hours is due to ongoing Israeli Air Force strikes. They estimate 40% of IRGC missile launchers have been destroyed so far.

    ***
    Iranian ballistic missiles have reportedly struck at least two sites within the Israeli Defense Forces’ military intelligence (AMAN) complex in Herzliya.

    ***
    Israel’s leaders had prepared for approximately 5,000 civilian casualties in a full-scale conflict with Iran, yet they have discovered that their adversary is not able to deliver serious damage, according to former senior intelligence officer Miri Eisin.

    - - - Israeli air strikes - - - -

    MASSIVE explosion in Parchin! Parchin is a military complex located about 30 kilometers southeast of Tehran, Iran. It is known for its role in Iran’s missile and suspected nuclear programs, though Iran denies nuclear weapon activities.

    Violent explosions are shaking multiple areas across Shiraz overnight.

    Unchallenged attacks by IAF all across Iran.

    - - - Other Key News - - - -

    Cyber attack reported against banks in Iran. Fars news reports one specifically directed at the Bank Sepah. Fars says that due to Sepah’s involvement in gas stations payment systems there may be disruptions at gas stations.

    Massive withdrawals of money by those fleeing Tehran may cause the Iranian banking system to crash.

    ***
    The Israeli army announces the assassination of General Ali Shadmani, the new Iranian Chief of Staff, who was appointed by Ali Khamenei four days ago to succeed Major General Gholamali Rashid, who was assassinated in the opening Israeli raid.
    NOTE - Getting the Hezbollah / Hamas treatment. . . . .

    ***
    The Revolutionary Guards published the location of American bases in Saudi Arabia and the region, after President Trump called on Tehran residents to evacuate.

    ***
    Reports of rather unusual movements of the Iranian military naval fleet in the Persian Gulf

    ***
    Former US Central Command Commander Kenneth McKenzie: “I wouldn’t want to be within five kilometers of Fordow at this point.”

    ***
    Prison escape reported in Tehran. Prison break at Dizelabad Prison in Tehran:
    Several inmates were killed during riots at the Prison after an Israeli strike on the facility, which also resulted in a number of prisoners escaping! The prisoners escaped are likely enemies of the Auatollah and will form part of the rebellion against the terror regime.

    ***
    China now encouraging Chinese citizens to leave Tel Aviv “as soon as possible”.

    The Indian Embassy in Iran is advising all Indian Nationals and Persons of Indian Origin (PIO) to immediately depart and move to a safe location outside of the Iranian capital of Tehran.

    ***
    Civilians continued to flood out of Tehran tonight, as President Trump issued an order to evacuate the city.
    The exodus started a few days ago, but recently accelerated as Iranian air defenses fell apart and airstrikes intensified in Tehran.

    ATMs in Iran are down following the cyber attack. Pulling of funds out of banks by fleeing Iranians is threatening to cause the collapse of Iran’s banking system.

    OVERALL OBSERVATIONS

    Iran still has thousands of missiles stockpiled, ranging from short-range artillery rockets to long-range ballistic and cruise missiles. But without mobile or fixed launchers, these weapons become little more than museum pieces—powerful, yet inert. Launchers are the vital delivery systems, and Israel is systematically removing them from the equation at a rate that is both rapid and unsustainable for Iran.

    Iran’s only conventional means of retaliation—missile fire—depends on the very launchers now being hunted down with surgical precision. Once the number of operational launchers falls below the threshold required to saturate Israel’s multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow), Iran’s remaining missile fire will become largely symbolic, not strategic.

    The coming days and weeks may see fewer missile barrages from Iran—not because it doesn’t want to retaliate, but because it increasingly can’t. And when a regime built on the projection of strength is suddenly exposed as weak, history tells us two things can happen: it either collapses inward, or lashes out blindly.

    FUTURE OUTLOOK -

    The last 24 hours brings some concerns that Iran is rethinking its course.
    The IDF’s damage to the missile launchers is dramatic, and in recent days Iran has been reducing the number of missiles it launches at the State of Israel, but not the number of times it launches them.

    This may drive Iran to resort to more unconventional attacks. Cyber assault being one. The second resorting to terrorism, maybe even using some of its enriched uranium for a ‘dirty bomb’ scenario. The potential for the US to be targeted will exponentially increase should the US become tactically involved. Domestic terror also a growing threat.

    The indicators of US action are in movement, as I warned to watch out for. Trump is basically set his mind on kinetic negotiations at the moment. Iran’s negotiation calls have been inconsistent and clearly an attempt to stall the inevitable.

    I would guess that the US plan was to let Israel do much of the dirty work against Iran’s general nuclear program and ballistic missile systems. With clear control of the airspace, US bombers can act freely to deliver the MOPs that were specifically designed to take out a deeply buried facility like Fordow. Cleanup of other buried facilities would be probable as well.

    It won’t be pretty for Iran.

    Concerning continued Iranian threats. Last night announced ‘massive’ missile attack was little more than a poof. Iran has also threatened US bases in the region, should US attack. This threat still has some teeth as Iran still has short to medium ranged missile systems and drones that may not have been significantly hit during the current fighting as they are not a threat to Israel. Should Iran launch on these bases, it is pretty well assured that it would kick off a limited regional war against Iran.

    The second shift in tactics is the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz. Should the unconfirmed reports of naval deployments pan out, this option may be growing in possibility. This is where the second CSG comes into play. Between Israel and USAF assets being brought in, the ground fight is pretty well covered. The CSGs are there to eliminate any naval threats. Much of the Iranian fleet is designed to intercept and capture tankers/freighters with limited capabilities to attack capitol vessels. Under Reagan IIRC, we swatted them pretty well, however, that has been a while ago and things have changed. The Vinson CSG can hold the line until Nimitz arrives within a week. They can do so outside the range of Iranian shore based anti ship weapons systems. Hot rod speed boats won’t fare well against modern naval weaponry.

    Below the surface lurk US and Israeli submarines, so far quietly sitting out the chaos ready to unleash their own.

    So, the big breath holder is when and where the US will hit Iran. Trump is telegraphing the punch bigly. In part propaganda warning, in part laying out what is to come. Besides the clear threat to hit targets like Fordow, the extent he is threatening Tehran is undefined and may just be a scare tactic. At this stage, there isn’t much left of military value in Tehran. Bases have been hit hard and most of the country’s military leadership decimated.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/16/2025 8:28:45 AM PDT · 632 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Delayed due to some breaking news on the Iran / Israel situation.


    Globalism / Great Reset –

    Leaders of some of the world’s wealthiest countries have descended on a luxury mountain lodge nestled in Canada’s Rockies for this year’s G7 summit.
    The elite gathering comes as Western allies face numerous crises, from conflicts on three continents to global economic instability.
    Canada chairs the G7 this year and will host leaders of Italy, US, France, Germany, UK and Japan in Kananaskis, Alberta. It has promised a set of streamlined priorities focused around the global economy and security.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025

    Things have quieted down significantly in LA and other Antifa supported, anti ICE operations. The “No King” rallies did not provide the angry and destructive demographic Antifa was hoping for to launch the anti-ICE riots nationwide.

    The potential for continued riots remains as Trump moves forward with targeting five other sanctuary cities for mass ICE operations. These area have high Antifa presence.

    A major difference is noted on LA versus Portland / Seattle protection of ICE / Federal facilities. In LA, CANG and Marines have pretty much doused the direct attacks on those facilities, causing rioters to seek softer targets. In Seattle and Portland, military is not present and those facilities have to rely on federal officers with local law enforcement back up. They have been battered pretty hard. As Trump’s right to deploy military and nationalize national guard forces to protect these other federal facilities gets re-established after activist judges try to remove that power gets restored, they will continue to have a rough go. Courts are trending to support Trump’s use of available laws, laws used a number of times before. He may next deploy forces to these other cities.

    ***
    A Latino radical leftist and Antifa supporter has been charged with murder after a man shot at the Salt Lake City “No Kings” protest died from his injuries.

    Arturo Gamboa, wearing all black, allegedly had a rifle. A “No Kings” liberal “peacekeeper” volunteer with bad aim tried taking out Gamboa but instead fatally wounded a bystander. Afa Ah Loo (pictured below in the portrait) died. Suspect Gamboa only suffered a graze wound.

    The “peacekeeper” has not been named and police have not stated if he will face any charges.

    https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1934363342367240584?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkSh

    ***
    Los Angeles — Far-left anti-ICE extremists threaten staff working at a Hilton hotel as they start a fire and vandalize the building in the name of open borders.


    Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Iran could activate cells in the US.

    Vance Boelter, identified as a suspected assassin in Minnesota , has been taken into custody after surrendering to authorities in a wooded area near Green Isle, Minnesota, according to KSTP.

    OBSERVATONS - Still a lot of questions.


    Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

    Oil prices steadied but holding on to most of last week’s increase.

    Brent was last off 0.5% at $73.85 a barrel,, but last week’s 13% surge means its inflationary pulse, if sustained, could make the Federal Reserve more nervous about giving too many hints at its Wednesday meeting about interest rate cuts later in the year.

    Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely.

    https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/oil-middle-east/2025/06/16/id/1215102/

    OBSERVATION - At this stage, I think the Fed is grasping for anything to keep rates high and avoid reduction.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    USS Nimitz popped up on AIS last night and looks to be heading towards Singapore and a Malacca Strait transit. This will soon place it in the Indian Ocean.

    The DOD has officially confirmed that the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN-68), and its strike group are headed to the Middle East from the Pacific.
    The US Navy will have two carrier strike groups operating in CENTCOM.

    OBSERVATIONS - Oh boy, things to heat up even more in Iran.

    ***
    OSINT and other observers have raised alerts overnight over a substantial deployment out of the US of 28 KC-135s and 4 KC-46s air refueling tankers (32 total).

    A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR. The flight profiles suggested that they were not dragging combat aircraft with them.
    Observers note their numbers on a Sunday night, are quite unusual.

    OBSERVATION - Details still not clear on this deployment, but movement of key pieces of equipment like this to the middle east region (yet to be confirmed) or where they can quickly reinforce the region is an important indicator of potential action.


    TRUMP Watch –

    Trump to ABC: We’re not involved in a war right now. But it’s possible we could get involved


    North/South Korea –

    North Korean troops have suffered more than 6,000 casualties fighting for Russia in the war against Ukraine, more than half of the about 11,000 soldiers initially sent to the Kursk region, the British Defense Ministry said in a post on X on Sunday.

    https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/north-korea-russia-troops/2025/06/15/id/1215078/


    Russia -

    Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    *****

    Russia demands that Ukraine destroy Western weapons to end military operations, says Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Grushko


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 50-70, widely scattered rain.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Overnight, Russia launched 138 Shahed type drones. In total, 125 of them were neutralized. 84 shot down and 41 suppressed by electronic warfare.

    Russian losses per 16/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

    +1200 men
    +2 tanks
    +7 AFVs
    +18 artillery
    +1 AD system

    North-Slobozhansky (Sumy) -

    General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine to report Sumy direction as North-Slobozhansky direction and Kharkiv direction as South-Slobozhansky direction

    Summary —
    Pretty much the standard fare. Many details overwhelmed in the news cycle by the Iran / Israel war.


    Poland –

    The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland is organizing the evacuation of Polish citizens from the Middle East. Both military and civil flights are prepared, if conditions allow. Return to the country is free of charge.


    Europe / NATO General –

    European Commission President: Iran is a source of instability in the region, and Israel has the right to defend itself.

    French President Emmanuel Macron said he does not believe Russia can serve as a mediator in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel

    EU Foreign Ministers will hold an emergency meeting to address the situation with Iran.


    Pakistan / India –

    The border between Pakistan and Iran has been closed after crowds of people entered from Iran, in what appears to be a breach of fences and an unorganized crossing.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - Rough night again as some of the Iranian missiles strike civilian sites in Haifa and Tel Aviv

    - IAF continues to pound targets throughout Iran

    - Gaza offensive continues to move forward

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Israel warns Iran that retribution for targeting civilians with missiles (see Iran below for details)

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    IAF airstrikes hit key targets in Gaza overnight as the ground operation continues to chew up Hamasl

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    Hezbollah releases another statement saying that they will not be participating in the Israel / Iran fight.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    Houthis fire drones at Israel, all shot down.

    ***
    Pro-Iranian faction in Iraq Kataib Hezbollah declared that the Islamic Republic of Iran does not require external military support to counter Israel, claiming it has the manpower and capabilities to “humiliate Netanyahu.”

    The group warned that any American intervention in the conflict would trigger a direct response from Kataib Hezbollah against U.S. interests and bases in the region. It called on the Iraqi government, the Coordination Framework, and allied militias to act decisively by shutting down the U.S. embassy and expelling American forces from Iraq, framing the U.S. as the primary threat to Iraq’s security and regional stability.

    https://x.com/joetruzman/status/1934260747409985930?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Gaza, Lebanon and Syria are relatively stable. Buried under the news of the fight with Iran, Hamas continues to lose ground and troops in its fight against IDF.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

    PLEASE NOTE - Things have been fast and furious overt here lately and events have been already overcome by other events in many instances. Though I try, there are events I may have noted but failed to report. Highly dynamic and fluid.

    Iran is seeking negotiations with the U.S. and Israel, sending messages through Arab mediators calling for a halt to hostilities, The Wall Street Journal.
    Tehran has privately indicated it is willing to resume talks if the U.S. refrains from military intervention.

    - - - Iranian missile strikes - - - -

    Iran has fired 350 ballistic missiles at Israel since Friday, IDF confirms
    Iran has launched around 350 ballistic missiles at Israel since Friday, according to new IDF data. Most were intercepted, but some broke through, causing deadly impact.

    Iran fired more rockets at Israel, once again focusing on Haifa and Tel Aviv. About 90 rockets were fired in two salvos. However, I haven’t found an official count yet. Israeli air defenses once again took out about 90% of the incoming missiles, however, those that managed to penetrate caused significant damages and loss of life / injuries.

    The first wave consisted of about 30 missiles with a few impacts noted in the Haifa region. Some minor injuries reported.

    A follow-on strike appears to have been preempted by aggressive IAF action. Israelis were ordered to shelters upon notification that rockets were about to be launched. Nearly the same time, IAF announced a full court effort to take out launchers and launch sites. IAF reported they hit 70 launchers, and nothing was launched for nearly 4 hours after the first alert.

    The second, more deadly wave did launch targeting Haifa and Tel Aviv. One penetrated and hit an apartment tower, with many casualties.

    The two attacks resulted in -

    5 people were killed
    87 were wounded:

    Damage was sustained to the U.S. embassy branch/consulate in Tel Aviv, Israel from a nearby Iranian missile impact. The target of the Iranian missile remains unclear. No American casualties reported in this incident, in any media yet. Consulate to remain closed for now.

    Mixed in were drone attacks from Iran, Houthis and possibly Iranian backed militias in Iraq.

    Iran is now reported to be hiding missiles and launchers within civilian areas. The IRGC has turned buildings near the Farabi Hospital in Kermanshah, Iran , into missile depots, and is weaponizing IAF strikes targeting the launchers there as propaganda.

    It also says the IAF has struck at least seven missile depots near the residential neighborhoods of Dowlat Abad and Dizel Abad in Kermanshah and that the IRGC launched missiles from these areas at Israel last night.

    The Air Force simultaneously destroyed more than 20 ballistic missiles last night before they could be launched towards the State of Israel.
    The Iranians launched only half of the missiles they planned to launch last night.

    - - - Israeli air strikes - - - -

    Today, IAF resumes hitting a broad range of targets, appearing to focus on damaging Iran’s ability to launch further missile attacks, as well as hitting nuclear and ballistic missile production. Increasing numbers of attacks on infrastructure are also expected.

    Israel continued to strike at will across Iran yesterday. Military and govt buildings within Tehran were hammered hard with more significant results. Attacks elsewhere are too many to keep track of.

    One strike took out the Basij headquarters. Basij is the “riot police” in charge of cracking down on protests. They have the blood of thousands of Iranians on their hands.

    IDF Spokesperson:
    At a distance of approximately 2,300 kilometers, the Air Force recently attacked an Iranian refueling plane at Mashhad Airport in eastern Iran. The Air Force is working to achieve air superiority throughout Iran.
    This is the furthest strike since the start of the operation.
    NOTE - Khammeni is believed to be hiding in this region.

    - - - Other Key News - - - -

    The IAEA says the loss of power at the Natanz nuclear site (either caused by IAF strikes, cyberattacks, or both) may have destroyed some of the 14,000 centrifuges there, reports the WSJ.
    An Israeli official said there were indications that part of the Natanz facility may have imploded, but further assessment is needed.

    OBSERVATION - Key point is that unless the centrifuges are carefully slowed and shut down, the sudden loss of power and uncontrolled slowing down of the machine will cause them to literally fly apart. Israel’s strike at Natanz on day one most likely prohibited this critical shut down.

    ***
    Five explosive devices detonated in Tehran yesterday, resulting int he death of at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists.

    The population of Tehran is panicking and fleeing the city. Roads jammed packed as they flee to the countryside. Power is out in much of the city as well as water and sewer service being out/damages. Panic buying and markets in Tehran have been shut down.

    Heavy crowds reported at the Bazargan border crossing on the Iran-Türkiye border as Iranians flee the country.

    ***
    Iran continues to plea for countries to help intercede with Israel to stop the attacks.

    ***
    Iran continues to plea for countries to help intercede with Israel to stop the attacks.

    ***
    Unrest grows to topple the Mullahs -

    The Baloch Salafi group:
    Has joined the calls for a Baloch and Iranian National Uprising against the Islamic Republic following the Israeli strikes against Iran

    The Communist Party of Iran (CPI) is calling for a nationwide uprising to topple the Iranian regime.

    OVERALL OBSERVATIONS

    Iran’s ballistic missile shooters appear to have found a crease in Israel’s ABM shield, focused on Haifa and Tel Aviv. Densely populated, even a few missiles that penetrate the defense can cause considerable damage and loss of life. Israel is only into its fourth day of battle, but already its suppression of Iran’s ballistic retaliation efforts is substantial. Only about 90 missiles in yesterday’s attack in total. Think back to the horror stories / threats of thousands of missiles Iran threatened to launch daily.

    OTOH, Israel’s complete dominance of the skies over Iran continues to be remarkable and Israel is taking full advantage of it. Iran’s regime is getting pummeled and has no way to defend itself.

    FUTURE OUTLOOK -

    I expect to see Israel continue to hit ballistic missile targets (fixed and mobile) and Iran’s ability to use them continue to decline. Iran will continue to see massive destruction of its military, govt and infrastructure. Tehran will seriously burn today.

    Biggest moves are the apparent increase in US assets moving into position. Biggest stick is the Vinson CSG now enroute to join CENTCOM for action. This assessment is backed up by the significant deployment of air refueling tankers into Europe and further east. The US will need these to fuel hungry fighters and bombers. Trump has also left it hanging, suggesting that the US may soon enter the fight - most likely with heavy bombers - to hit Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). The MOPs will also be useful for other deeply dug Iranian facilities and bases. A flight of B52s alone would carry nearly as much ordinance as the entire IAF.

    Window for US action is at least a week, in order to get the Nimitz into position.

    It is unknown at this stage just what the UK’s HMS Prince of Wales ad hoc CSG is going to get involved against Iran. Three major CSGs in the region is serious fire power.

    Iran is playing with fire in allowing its proxy militias to target US facilities and troops in Iraq. Could be justification for a quicker strike by US before additional forces are in the region. Iran is so weakened that current forces could wreak signifiant damage.

    Finally are Iran’s increasing pleas for foreign intervention to stop the attacks and more critically, prevent US forces from entering the fray. Their biggest fear are the MOPs that can be delivered to Fordow and other deeply dug facilities. I think that Trump will execute some form of an attack, most likely on Fordow with the additional firepower to dissuade Iran from attempting to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. How massive the US action will be depends heavily upon Iran’s future actions against Israel and more precisely against US bases and interests.


    Iraq -

    Security Alert in Iraq issued by State Department, citing possibility of terrorist attacks or violence against US businesses and “locations frequented by US
    citizens.”

    ***
    Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani says Iraq is ready to assist Iran in dealing with the aftermath of Israeli strikes. The Iraqi army has deployed a Pantsir missile system in Maysan, southeastern Iraq.

    ***

    According to local reports, a little before last night’s Iranian ballistic missile attack against Israel, sirens sounded at Al-Asad Airbase in the Anbar Province of Western Iraq. U.S. Servicemembers at the base were forced to take shelter, as several drones heading in the direction of Al-Asad were intercepted. No drones struck inside the base’s perimeter, with assessments suggesting that the drones were launched by Iranian-backed paramilitary forces in Iraq.

    U.S. Forces in Northern Iraq, for the second night in a row, shot down an unknown drone heading in the direction of the U.S. General Consulate in Erbil, believed to have likely been launched by Iranian-backed paramilitaries in Iraq. Earlier tonight, several additional drones were downed approaching U.S. Al-Asad Airbase in Western Iraq.


    Syria -

    Syrian Observatory for Human Rights: A civilian woman was killed after a drone, possibly launched from Iran, hit a house in Tartus, western Syria.

    Kan News, citing a source close to the Syrian regime: Syria does not oppose intercepting Iranian missiles and drones in Syrian airspace


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/15/2025 6:40:59 AM PDT · 627 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Happy Father’s day

    Yesterday was a wash with chaos, so let us begin.


    Globalism / Great Reset –

    Bilderberg’s 71st meeting kicked off in Stockholm, Sweden Thursday, where global elites convened behind closed doors amid tensions across Europe and the Middle East, and against the backdrop of President Donald Trump’s assault on their favorite thing of all time; globalism. The shadowy group, which was founded in 1954, infamously bans media and enforces a code of silence, fueling concerns of hidden agendas and backroom deals shaping the world’s future.

    OBSERVATIONS - More will get leaked out later.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025

    So looks like a successful turnout for the left. However, they are hyping the levels of turnout via their many mouthpieces. The question is does this do anything? Will it move the needle for the democrat left.

    Concern over post protest turning into riots never really materialized either. Some of the standard trouble areas did break out with violence -

    Salt Lake City - At least one person was critically injured at the rowdy anti-Trump “No Kings” march in Salt Lake City, Utah, on Saturday night. No report on the reason for the shooting.
    KUTV reported that some 10,000 people were participating in the march between Pioneer Park and the Federal Building on Saturday when chaos erupted and shots were fired. The shooting critically injured at least one unidentified individual near 200 South State Street, and law enforcement arrested one suspect.

    Washington DC - Anti-Trump protesters with “No Kings” are blocked the roads to the White House and they are yelling “86-47”, which is a call for the assassination of President Trump. NOTE DC did not have an official “No King” rally.

    Los Angeles — U.S. Marines try to push back open border rioters who want to storm a federal building they’ve surrounded all week in the insurrection. Some in the crowd threw projectiles at the Marines.

    Rioters in Los Angeles opened fire hydrants in an effort to deny the LAFD water pessary to extinguish whatever they burn down

    Portland - A riot was declared in Portland as Antifa attack the ICE building again as part of the “No Kings” anti-Trump protest.
    Antifa in Portland urged protesters who attended the “No Kings” anti-Trump event to rush straight to the local ICE building right after. The militants there then violently smashed up the building, forcing officers to rush out and respond.

    Seattle — Antifa and far-left extremists surrounded and blocked off an ICE building to trap ICE staff and agents inside.
    After officers cleared the illegal blockade, antifa screamed and cursed as the transport vehicles left the Tukwila DHS facility.
    Seattle Antifa members threw rocks and projectiles at law enforcement outside a DHS building after their hostage-taking blockade was smashed apart.

    Tukwila, Wash. — Hours after Antifa besieged the exterior of a DHS building near Seattle, federal officers responded & smashed apart their barrier. The militants can be seen throwing projectiles at officers, including what appears to be frozen bottles.

    Seattle — After failing to blockade DHS officers for long earlier in the day, Antifa regrouped downtown and started fires in the street and are attacking the federal building again.

    Seattle — Antifa are confronting and attacking drivers in the street in downtown as part of their anti-ICE insurrection against the U.S. government.

    Denver - Police use paintballs/tear gas to disperse crowd in Denver.
    Scuffles break out but are quickly overcome by police/Sherriff LEOs and the crowd is pushed back.
    It was declared an unlawful assembly more than 5 minutes before.

    OBSERVATION - Mixed bag for the left. Observations continue to have the main demographic being senior white persons. Even in heavily black areas, black turnout was very low. The organizers threw hundreds of millions at organizing these events and managed to get a reasonable turnout.

    OTOH, the violent left came up empty handed. With the demographics of the crowd being far older than they like, they could’t effectively hide in it or find much support. Hence the main violence occurred where it has already been going on, principally LA, Portland and Seattle - antifa strongholds. Events gave no momentum for the development of a violent summer as many have voiced warnings and concerns over.

    Now, this ‘movement’ is facing scrutiny over its funding and if a link can be made to the anti-ICE violence, hopefully people will start going to jail.


    Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Iran could activate cells in the US.

    Maintaining the WATCH classification. The collapse of Iranian defenses and the remarkable effectiveness of Israeli strikes have limited Iran’s response options. So far the US has maintained a degree of separation from the attacks. Any clearly organized terror strike(s) by Iranian terror cells in country could trigger massive retaliation by US forces the region. This could cause terror to be held off for now.

    WARNING - I don’t have a channel into the minds of the probable Iranian cells here in the US. But I think that the condition that Iran is currently in, they don’t want a pissed off US entering the fray. But the mind of the jihadi doesn’t work logically, so keep your heads on a swivel and especially so at venues where there are large crowds or soft targets.
    This would include the numerous “No King” protests - big target, big press coverage.

    Lone wolf attacks triggered by the Israel / Iran conflict are more likely now.

    ***
    A Minnesota state lawmaker and her husband were killed Friday night and others have been shot in what authorities are calling “multiple targeted attacks.”

    Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark were shot and killed in Brooklyn Park in what police are calling a politically motivated attack. DFL Sen. John Hoffman and his wife Yvette were also shot in their neighborhood of and Champlin, Minnesota. Police are searching for a suspect who may be impersonating a police officer.

    Hortman was Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2019-2025 and on Monday cast the lone DFL vote to end undocumented adult immigrants’ eligibility for MinnesotaCare. Hoffman voted against the repeal. The bill passed by a narrow 68-65 vote during an emotional session.

    From a police source in Minnesota, the suspect in the shootings of MN state lawmakers is Vance Luther Boelter. It appears it is the same Boelter who was appointed to the Governor’s Workforce Development Board in 2019 by Gov. Tim Walz. He appointed to the Governor’s Workforce Development Council in 2016 by then-Gov. Mark Dayton. Boelter leads an African migrant support nonprofit in Minnesota.

    He managed to escape from a shoot out with police. In his vehicle were found a manifesto identifying numerous lawmakers and public officials as potential targets.

    They found fliers from the so-called No Kings far-left organization in his car. This is the same group that is trying to organize at least 1500 anti ICE and anti Trump “protests” this weekend.

    Police are asking the public to not attend the statewide No Kings protests against President Trump scheduled for today -

    “Given the targeted shootings of state lawmakers overnight, we are asking the public to not attend today’s planned demonstrations across MN...” said the MN State Patrol with the photo of the flyers.

    OBSERVATION - No announced motive except for the linkage to the vote to end undocumented adult immigrants’ eligibility for MinnesotaCare. The leftist influences quickly jumped on the story hoping the perp was a MAGA, now are deeply saddened and silent.
    This is another instance where the left has conditioned sheeple to resort to violence and even murder. This is a double edge sword and it cut opposite to the desires of the left.

    UPDATE - As of this morning the search is still on. Minnesota officials confirm they will not be releasing the manifesto of Vance Boelter, the individual who faked being a cop to gain entry into Rep. Melissa Hortman’s home and claim her and her husband’s life.

    The wife of suspected political assassin Vance Boetler is being detained and questioned after cops found a weapon, ammunition, cash and passports in her car during a traffic stop on Saturday morning, a report said.
    Jenny Boetler was stopped by police while driving in a car with several relatives near Onamia, Minnesota, late Saturday morning around 10 a.m., local KTSP reported.

    In the car she had a weapon, ammunition, cash and passports, that report stated citing law enforcement officials.

    ***

    The Texas state Capitol was evacuated over threats to lawmakers amid the anti-Trump “No Kings” protests. The threats happened on the same day as the targeted shootings of lawmakers in Minnesota.

    https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1933981783164436565?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    See potential Delta Force involvement in Iran.


    TRUMP Watch –

    President Trump:
    “I’m the one who developed the term ‘America First’ so I decide that. For those who say they want peace, you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. Those who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon, that’s not peace.”

    U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. had “nothing to do with” Israel’s attack against Iran Sunday morning, warning that any attack against the U.S. will be met with the “full strength and might” of the U.S. military.

    “If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before,” he continued. “However, we can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict!!!”


    Illegal Immigration –

    President Trump’s administration has informed the judge who ordered the release of college riot organizer Mahmoud Khalil that they will not comply.


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 50-70, widely scattered rain.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Ukraine’s Air Force reports about a large missile and drone attack.

    Shot down:
    159/183 Shahed and other type UAVs
    2/2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
    0/1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile
    3/4 Iskander-K cruise missiles
    3/4 Kalibr cruise missiles

    Overnight, Russian forces launched a massive attack on Kremenchuk, Poltava region, reportedly the largest since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Regional Administration said. The city was struck simultaneously by Shahed drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, causing multiple explosions and widespread fires.

    Russian losses per 15/06/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff

    +1170 men
    +6 AFVs
    +33 artillery
    +1 MLRS
    +1 AD systems

    Summary —

    Ukraine conflict is stuck in the same rut. Drone / missile attacks by each side and a continued meat grinder along the front with Russia now appearing to be losing some momentum it had developed over the past few weeks.


    Pakistan / India –

    Pakistan air force has reportedly been put on alert for the border region with Iran. Officials warn Israel to stay away or else face the country’s wrath.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - IDF eliminated Mohammed al-Amri, Chief of Staff of the Yemeni Houthis and a lot of his staff

    - Continued strikes on Iranian targets

    - Iranian missiles managed to hit Haifa and Tel Aviv region, many casualties.

    - Questionable if any negotiations will occur between US and Iran today.

    - Israel requests direct support to deal with the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP)

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Netanyahu:
    What the Iranian regime has felt so far is nothing compared to what it will see in the coming days.

    Due to fears of Iranian retaliation: Israel’s diplomatic missions around the world are closed, diplomats have been instructed not to leave their homes, and the diplomats’ children are not going to school.

    Defense Minister Israel Katz warns Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei that if missiles continue to be fired at Israel, “Tehran will burn.”

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    Two rockets were launched within the last few minutes at communities in Southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, with both falling in open areas near Nir Oz.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Overall quiet.

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    Quiet, see Syria separately below for actions.

    ——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

    Generally quiet here as well.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    While IAF is hitting Iran, it also hit a key Houthi target. IDF is now attacking in a targeted manner in Yemen. Mohammed al-Amri, Chief of Staff of the Yemeni Houthis, was eliminated. A covert Houthi command center housing 12 senior figures, including the Chief of Staff, was struck.

    Missile launches detected from Yemen

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Yesterday Israel was engaging Hamas, Iran and the Houthis, all at the same time. Incredible.

    As far as limited reporting goes, Gaza continues to fall under IDF assaults.

    See Iran below on that war.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

    Iran’s overnight attacks on Israel included a total of 70 (some say as high as 100) ballistic missiles and dozens of drones, according to the Israeli army’s latest estimates. The missiles were fired in three waves at 11 p.m., 2 a.m., and 2:55 a.m., coinciding with the dozens of drones. One projectile struck a home in the predominantly Arab town of Tamra, killing four civilians; another struck Bat Yam, killing at least six civilians and wounding nearly 200; and another struck Rehovot, wounding another 40 people. The military says that so far, Iran’s attacks are below the “reference scenario,” or what the Israeli army had anticipated in a war with Iran. The Israeli army had estimated far larger numbers of casualties and more significant damage. Iran is still believed to possess thousands of ballistic missiles.

    ***
    Overnight Israeli strikes in Tehran include four main targets in particular: Ministry of Defense building, the local nuclear headquarters, nuclear laboratories, and oil depots. There were also strikes reported on the Malek Ashtar University of Technology.
    Reports indicate the Iranian Defense Ministry in Tehran has come under attack.
    Israel struck Tehran’s main gasoline storage depot tonight, setting off massive explosions. An Iranian official said that “the depots were exploding one after another,” threatening nearby neighborhoods. The targeted oil facility, the Shahran Oil Depot, holds 260 million liters across 11 containers and produces 7 million liters daily for the Tehran area.
    The homes of IRGC commanders in Tehran’s Mahallati neighborhood were also targeted.

    IDF Spokesperson:
    Overnight: Missile launchers in Iran were identified and attacked - In the last hour, the Air Force completed another wave of attacks in western Iran against missile storage and launch infrastructure*

    ***
    A senior Israeli official tells the Wall Street Journal the war will end only when Iran’s nuclear program is damaged beyond recovery.

    Iran’s Supreme-Leader Ali Khamenei is “not off limits” from targeting as Israel proceeds with its intensive air campaign in Iran, an Israeli official told the Wall Street Journal.

    ***
    Iran reportedly has turned to Oman and Qatar to mediate a ceasefire with Washington amid Israeli strikes. The U.S. insists Tehran must fully halt uranium enrichment to stop the offensive. Saudi Arabia is also involved in backchannel talks. Israel, meanwhile, is pushing for eventual U.S. participation in the military campaign.

    Iran Deputy Foreign Minister: If Israeli attacks end, we may return to the negotiating table

    ***
    The U.S. State Department urges all American citizens to leave Iran immediately

    ***
    Israel has officially requested that the United States join its ongoing operation against Iran, particularly targeting underground nuclear facilities such as the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), which the Israeli Air Force does not have the means to effectively strike without “bunker busters” like the GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator).

    Rumint. US reports:
    US Army Delta Force has been ordered to prepare to take over the Fordow nuclear site.

    ***
    Israeli and U.S. defense sources say the Israeli strike has temporarily disabled the Isfahan nuclear facility, calling it a major achievement in blocking Iran’s ability to quickly advance toward a nuclear bomb.

    ***
    Reports now from Iran of a targeted assassination also in the heart of Tehran. Area hit contains other senior leaders of govt and military.
    RELATED - Observers noting that private jets continue to stream out of Tehran. A Russian source says that senior Iranian officials are moving their families to Russia.

    ***

    A White House official: “Whatever happens today cannot be prevented. But we have the ability to negotiate a successful peaceful resolution to this conflict if Iran is willing. The fastest way for Iran to accomplish peace is to give up its nuclear weapons program”

    ***
    Unconfirmed reports said Khamenei has fled to Mashhad, northeast of Iran and the farthest from Israel. Israeli planes reportedly were attacking targets in the city shortly after this report came out.

    Khamenei:
    “The Zionist regime has made a big mistake, a grave error, and committed a reckless act. By God’s grace, the consequences of this will bring that regime to ruin. The Islamic Republic will triumph over the Zionist regime, by the will of God.”

    ***
    According to Iranian media, About 25% of Iran’s gas supply comes from the Fajr Jam refinery, which was targeted yesterday by Israel
    Israeli source to Fox News reported that a second gas facility, near the port of Bandar Abbas was also hit- after the attack on the gas facility in Bushehr. According to the report, a single warning attack was carried out “to send a message to the leadership in Tehran”

    ***
    The IDF reports it has eliminated over 21 senior Iranian commanders, and nuclear scientists including Iran’s top intelligence officer Gholam-Reza Marhabi, IRGC missile chief Mohammad Bagheri, and IRGC Aerospace Force head Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

    Confirmed Killed

    1. Major General Hossein Salami Commander‑in‑Chief of the IRGC
    2. Major General Mohammad Bagheri Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces
    3. Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani Expediency Discernment Council Member / Adviser to Supreme Leader
    4. Major General Gholam Ali Rashid Commander of Khatam‑al Anbiya Central HQ
    5. Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh Head of IRGC Aerospace Force
    6. Esmail Qaani
    Commander, IRGC Quds Force
    7. Brigadier General Davoud Shaykhian Head of IRGC Aerospace Air Defense Command
    8. Brigadier General Taher Pour
    Head of IRGC UAV Forces
    9. Brigadier General Masoud Shane’e Chief of Staff, IRGC
    10. Major General Gholamreza Mehrabi Deputy Minister of Intelligence
    11. Major General Mehdi Rabbani Deputy Chief of Operations
    12. Seyed Amir Hossein Feqhi – Deputy Head, Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / Nuclear Engineering Professor, Shahid Beheshti University
    13. Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi President, Islamic Azad University
    14. Fereydoon Abbasi
    Former Head of AEOI (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran)
    15. Dr. Abdolhamid Minouchehr
    Head of Nuclear Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University
    16. Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari
    Nuclear Engineering Professor, Shahid Beheshti University
    17. Motalibizadeh
    Nuclear Scientist
    18. Amin Abbas Rashid
    Son of Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid
    19. Ali Bekaei Karimi Nuclear Scientist
    20. Mansour Asgari Nuclear Scientist
    21. Saeed Borji Nuclear Scientist

    Unconfirmed / No Status Reported

    Ali Akbar Ahmadian Secretary, Supreme National Security Council / Member, Expediency Discernment Council

    Brigadier General Reza Mozaffarinia Chief, SPND (Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research)

    Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi IRGC Intelligence Chief

    Numbers increase daily, as I think a few more were added overnight.

    ***
    Security forces with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have begun to establish checkpoints in several cities across Iran, searching vehicles for anything deemed to be suspicious, after a truck was found earlier today which is believed to have been used by Mossad to launch explosive-laden drones against targets inside Iran.

    OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -

    Israel continues to strike Iran at will. Targets are so many in number that is is very difficult to keep track of them. I expect to see a more substantial shift towards infrastructure (oil) following last nights missile attack by Iran.

    Iran apparently did succeed in saturating Israels defenses around Haifa, getting some strikes in. However, one strike hit an arab town. Not likely to gains supporters there. The later strikes hit the Tel Aviv region with serious damage and deaths/injuries. Apparently the defenses were saturated again. That said, Israeli maintained a solid 90% take down rate, averting even more serious damage.

    Significant to note. Iran said they were going to hit Israel with a thousand missiles last night. They could only muster between 70 - 100. This is down significantly from the 200 fired the night before. This is evidence that Israel is degrading Iranian missile capabilities. Much of the success has been IAF’s identification and quick destruction of mobile launchers. Mossad eyes combined with recon drones scouring missile bases and potential launch sites have permitted Israel to hit early and hard. Many of last night’s launchers have already been targeted and taken out.

    On the flip side, more got thru last night than Friday nite. Observers noted that it appeared Iran used a mix of missiles and more of a point saturation to gain more falls. More drones also arriving at the same time also worked to task the Israeli ADA efforts. Today we will see if Israel’s success hitting launchers, missile stockpiles and bases continues.

    Even with last night’s successes by Iran, casualties were substantially below Israeli estimates..

    As these missile / drone attacks focused on principally civilian areas and not military, Israel’s threats to expand air strikes to infrastructure will gain prominence.

    Iran started toeing the line overnight with attacks by its proxy militias on US forces and facilities in Iraq. By hiding behind the proxy elements, Iran hopes to avoid the appearance that they have struck US interests / forces in the region and thereby avoid the wrath Trump promised (See Trump Watch above). It may not work given that Trump has stated any attack by a proxy element will be considered an attack by Iran proper. This may well trigger US involvement in a big way.

    Israel seeks US assistance in taking out the Fordow site.
    Fordow is the toughest nut to crack with the deepest bunkers for operations. This is what the GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) was designed for, deeply embedded targets. I wonder about the RUMINT of Delta Force operations to take the facility on the ground. Israeli has commando units of comparable quality that could do the same task. This could be another head fake away from the use of a MOP. Israel / US have been confounding Iran on policies and actions for days now.

    As vulnerable Iran is at the moment, it would be a really stupid move to hit US interests and not expect promised US attacks.

    Iran is still struggling to restore a cohesive command and control structure. This may be hampered by leadership focused on getting their families out of dodge, rather than fight a war.

    WHAT I EXPECT TODAY
    Israel will expand its target list to more oil/gas sites as well as military related sites near residential areas. Israel put out warnings to Iranians living near such sites to get out of the way. I also expect to see up tempo strikes targeting more Iranian leadership - principally the ruling mullahs.

    Iran will struggle to maintain its only strike option - missiles - alive for another day. Evidence that Iran is relying more and more on mobile units is evident. Their fixed and protected’ silos largely out of action. I expect another round of drone / missile attacks. What will be important is how may missiles Iran will be able to get into the air. Will the apparent downward trend continue?

    Finally, I expect to see more attempts by Iranian proxy elements to hit US forces and embassy facilities in Iraq. It could give full justification for the US to step in and strike places like Fordow. B52s over Tehran and other parts of Iran, dropping ordinance, would be a frightful scene for the mullahs.


    Iraq -

    Kurdish media reports that a one-way attack drone launched by Iran or Iranian-backed forces in Iraq, crashed earlier near the city of Erbil, with it possibly attempting to strike the U.S. General Consulate in Erbil, Northern Iraq.

    Arab networks report a drone attack on the American embassy in Baghdad

    Other news of a drone attack on US forces in Syria.


    Syria -

    Ahmed al-Shara’s (Syria) security forces were sent to the border with Iraq to secure the area from threats of a possible invasion by Iranian Shiite militias who are threatening to advance by land towards Israel.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/14/2025 8:47:36 AM PDT · 624 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Back and posting today. Had to return home from a camping trip because a strong thunderstorm damaged my roof, causing leakage into the house. Groan, insurance time.

    I tracked some of the craziness, but I’m gonna be forced to largely summarize a lot of what has been happening and hopefully be back on plane by tomorrow.

    At the front end - be alert around “No King” rallies.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
    Raised due to potential use of the “No King” events by Antifa to launch riots in major cities and the rapid increase in riots in these major cities.

    National Day of Action (NO KINGS) scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
    (aka President Donald Trump 79th birthday )
    Over 1000 locations reportedly preparing to host protests.

    PLEASE NOTE - Things have been developing fast.

    ***
    PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Cities large and small were preparing for major demonstrations Saturday across the U.S. against President Donald Trump, as officials urge calm, National Guard troops mobilize and Trump attends a military parade in Washington to mark the Army’s 250th anniversary.

    A flagship “No Kings” march and rally are planned in Philadelphia, but no events are scheduled to take place in Washington, D.C., where the military parade will take place on Trump’s birthday

    The demonstrations are gaining additional fuel from protests flaring up around the country over federal immigration enforcement raids and Trump ordering National Guard troops and Marines to Los Angeles where protesters blocked a freeway and set cars on fire.

    https://www.breitbart.com/news/cities-brace-for-large-crowds-at-anti-trump-no-kings-demonstrations-across-the-us/

    OBSERVATION - The AP neglectfully over looks that this is the 250th anniversary of the establishment of the US Army and flag day as well. Second, CANG and Marines have only been deployed to protect federal facilities and buildings and have not been involved in actions like clearing CA freeways.

    Organizers of these rallies are calling for only ‘peaceful’ actions, but be prepared for the related below.

    RELATED
    Antifa have announced plans to try to embed themselves into the larger “No Kings” protests organized by Democrats happening nationwide on June 14.

    As in 2020, Antifa utilize this tactic so that others can act as human shields for them, and when or if police are forced to make arrests, it will provide good propaganda PR for the far-left to show boomers and families getting affected by pepper spray or CS gas.

    https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1933714842688352766?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

    ***
    Also on Friday, there was action at the U.S. Capitol. People were protesting at the Supreme Court. But then, as they were leaving, they allegedly pushed past the barriers the police were setting up to keep protesters away.

    “A few people pushed the bike rack down and illegally crossed the police line while running towards the Rotunda Steps,” the Capitol Police said. “Our officers immediately blocked the group and began making arrests.”
    CNN reported they were a veterans group against “fascism.” It looks like someone got hurt when those barriers went over.

    Sixty of the protesters were arrested, then marched to a bus and taken away.

    https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2025/06/14/watch-people-breach-barriers-rush-the-us-capitol-n2190471#google_vignette

    ***
    Overnight Antifa gathered to attack the Portland ICE building again after trying to burn it down two nights in a row. Efforts were once again unsuccessful

    OVERALL OBSERVATIONS

    Overwhelming sorting thru the news to get to this category. The past few days, street riots have fallen back to key Antifa core cities, like Portland. The threat of imbedded Antifa elements into today’s ‘no king’ protests makes the possibility of some big riots in multiple cities very possible. Today will likely show just what transjectory Antifa et al will have going into a potential Summer of Love 2.0.


    Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Iran could activate cells in the US.

    Maintaining the WATCH classification. The collapse of Iranian defenses and the remarkable effectiveness of Israeli strikes have limited Iran’s response options. So far the US has maintained a degree of separation from the attacks. Any clearly organized terror strike(s) by Iranian terror cells in country could trigger massive retaliation by US forces the region. This could cause terror to be held off for now.

    WARNING - I don’t have a channel into the minds of the probable Iranian cells here in the US. But I think that the condition that Iran is currently in, they don’t want a pissed off US entering the fray. But the mind of the jihadi doesn’t work logically, so keep your heads on a swivel and especially so at venues where there are large crowds or soft targets.
    This would include the numerous “No King” protests - big target, big press coverage.

    Lone wolf attacks triggered by the Israel / Iran conflict are more likely now.


    Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

    Global oil prices jumped after Israel said it had struck Iran in a dramatic escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
    The price of the benchmark Brent crude rose more than 10%, reaching its highest level since January, before losing some gains.
    Traders were concerned that a conflict between Iran and Israel could disrupt supplies coming from the energy-rich region.

    OBSERVATION - Attempted closure of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran is still a possibility. However, Iran faces a substantially more severe threat if they do try to close them versus if they leave them be. The progress of the war this next week will likely drive the markets to continue to raise prices, or relax.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    According to the Associated Press, the Pentagon is shifting its resources, including naval ships, to the Middle East in response to Israel’s strikes today against Iran and a possible retaliatory attack against Israel by Tehran. The USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116), an Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyer specializing in Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), has been ordered to head toward the Eastern Mediterranean, while another unnamed destroyer has been instructed to head in the direction of the Middle East to be ready if orders are given by the White House.

    Some reports that the Nimitz CSG has been given warning orders to move to CENTCOM region to support any efforts against Iran.


    TRUMP Watch –

    During a brief phone call with the network Friday morning, Trump said the U.S. supported Israel and called the strikes on Iran last night “a very successful attack.”

    “We, of course, support Israel, obviously, and supported it like nobody has ever supported it,” Trump said.

    “Iran should have listened to me when I said — you know I gave them, I don’t know if you know, but I gave them a 60-day warning, and today is day 61.”

    Earlier on Truth Social, Trump urged Iran to reach a deal with Washington on its nuclear program, warning that Israel’s attacks “will only get worse.”


    Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
    - Threat status remains elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.

    Note later that apparently Iran has launched cyberattacks against Gulf nations a couple days ago. Iran or its proxies will have to consider the consequences of launching a major cyber attack because of the overwhelming vulnerably of the nation to US military operations on top of on going Israeli strikes.


    Japan –

    Japan reached out to China, expressing concern the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy J-15 fighters that came within 50 meters of a Japanese surveillance aircraft, Japan Defense Minister Gen Nakatani said Friday.

    The close encounter, which saw a fighter from aircraft carrier CNS Shandong (17) carry out an unusual maneuver against a JMSDF P-3C Orion Maritime Patrol Aircraft over the Philippine Sea last weekend, could lead to an accidental collision, Nakatani said in a Friday press conference.

    “Self-Defense Force aircraft will not approach within 45 meters of other aircraft over the high seas. We cannot accept the Chinese side’s remarks that suggest that Japan is to blame for this incident, and we have made a proper representation of Japan’s position to the Chinese side,” Nakatani said.

    Japan’s Ministry of Defense put out a release this week saying the J-15 fighter shadowed a JMSDF aircraft for 40 minutes on Saturday, coming within 45 meters of the P-3C Orion. On Sunday, another J-15 fighter shadowed a P-3C for 80 minutes, during which the Chinese fighter crossed approximately 900 meters ahead of the Japanese aircraft’s course, USNI News previously reported.

    https://news.usni.org/2025/06/13/japan-calls-out-china-over-unusual-maneuvers-warns-it-could-lead-to-accidental-collision


    Russia -

    Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    *****

    Other than urging negotiated peace settlement between Iran and Israel, Russia appears to be unable to mount any significant relief operation to Iran. Any effort, either military or shipping military equipment to Iran is unlikely due to Ukrainian commitments. Iran is on its own.

    Logistics –

    Iran has lost significant capability to produce ballistic missiles and Shahed drones for export to Russia. Russia has ramped up its own production, so impacts from the losses of Iranian sources should be mitigates somewhat. The Shaheds are cheap and easy to build.


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 50-70, widely scattered rain.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    On the night of June 14, Russia launched 58 Shahed and other UAVs from five directions. 43 of them were neutralized.

    Russia launched at least 5 strikes on Zaporizhzhia using 14 Shahed drones.

    Ukrainian drones also carried out an attack on the “Nevinnomysskiy Azot” chemical plant in Russia’s Stavropol Krai.

    Russian losses per 14/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

    +1130 men
    +3 tanks
    +7 AFVs
    +52 artillery systems
    +1 MLRS
    +1 AD system

    Sumy -

    In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 35 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
    NOTE - These attacks are designed to exert pressure on Sumy.

    Summary —

    Shahed and ballistic missile action reduced. Doubt the fewer Shaheds are due to Iranian supply problems - yet. Too soon.

    Moderate to heavy fighting along the front with no significant terrain changes.


    Europe / NATO General –

    HMS Prince of Wales and an ad hoc CSG are currently cruising in the western Indian Ocean region

    HMS Dauntless, HMS Richmond, Norwegian frigate HNoMS Roald Admundsen, Canadian frigate HMCS Ville de Québec and Spanish frigate ESPS Méndez Núñez all accompanied HMS Prince of Wales – with her deck filled with F-35B jet and Merlin and Wildcat helicopters – through the waterways into the Indian Ocean.

    Led by Prince of Wales and involving a dozen nations, the eight-month mission – known as Operation Highmast – will take the task group to the western Pacific Rim via the Mediterranean and Middle East with a series of large-scale exercises with Britain’s allies and partners.

    OBSERVATION - Though this naval force is within reach of the Iran / Israel conflict region, there is no evidence that it is moving into position to effect the fight. This could change if Iran attacks British / European interests in the region.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - At least two people were killed on Friday in direct missile strikes launched by Iran against Israel.

    - IAF has complete freedom of operation over Iran

    - Iran continues to see almost nonstop bombing by Israel.

    - Iran continues to threaten other nations that provide support to Israel.

    - Netanyahu has sent a message to the Iranian people to overthrow the corrupt islamic regime that caused this mess.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee recently tweeted:

    700,000 Americans live in Israel.
    Iran is not only attacking Israel but also the Americans who live here.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    Hamxs murdered at least five Gaza Humanitarian Foundation aid workers tonight in Gaza, according to a GHF statement. Several others were injured, and some may have been kidnapped.

    ——— LEBANON ———————————-

    Hezbollah sent a message out yesterday that they will not be participating in any defense of Iran - they’ll be sitting this one out.

    OBSERVATION - This is one of shocking significance. Hezbollah and its former massive rocket capability was an ace Iran once held. The fact that Israel so decisively neutered Hezbollah as to keep them out of this fight is remarkable.

    There was a small salvo of rockets out of Lebanon, easily handled by Iron Dome. No source, but very likely from one of the smaller terror groups that have been more closely aligned with Hamas of late.

    ——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

    One of yesterdays Iranian missile strikes hit a Palestinian area in the West Bank.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    The Israeli Air Force shot down three drones apparently launched from Yemen about an hour ago, the Israeli army says.

    Houthis also launched a ballistic missile shortly after the start of the Israeli air offensive against Iran. Was shot down.

    Iranian supported militias in Iraq started chest beating over the past couple days, but no actions noted yet.

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    The civil aviation authorities of Lebanon, Jordan and Syria reopened their airspace this morning.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Overshadowed by the war with Iran, Gaza ground operations continue with intensity. IAF is still supplying some air support to the fight.

    See Iran below on that war.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

    ***
    RECENT

    Iran has warned the UK, France, and US:
    Any aid to Israel will make their Middle East bases targets.

    Iran’s national security council convenes to discuss continued retaliation against Israel’s attacks

    Our next missile operation could involve launching approximately 2,000 missiles — Iranian Army

    Israeli military releases video purportedly showing Iranian missile launchers deployed inside Tehran

    Yesterday, Israel warned Iran not to target civilian areas or face an expanded attack against Iranian infrastructure (oil and others). Iran’s targeting of civilian areas is now seeing a response by Israel in that it appears to have begun targeting key Iranian industrial sites. This morning, Israeli bombs hit the west Tabriz industrial area, striking the Bonyan engine factory. An oil refinery has also been hit.

    OSINT and other analysts are noting via Flight Trackers indicate that a substantial number of private jets are departing Iran, indicating that Iran’s leaders / rich are fleeing.

    - - - A Quick Summary To Catch Up From The Past Days - - - -

    Eight months of intensive preparations led to Israel’s attack aimed at Iran’s top military officers and scientists, as well as nuclear and missile sites. This included a significant force of Mossad agents who penetrated into Iran and even set up a drone base(s) to attack Iran’s early warning radars and ballistic missile sites.

    Iran was lulled into a sense of security believing that the US would keep Israel on a short leash until at least after Sunday’s ‘negotiations’. They were all caught in bed and no alarms were raised until after the first waves of strikes occurred.

    Trump has inferred that he was briefed on the operational plan, but there is no indicators that the US assisted Israel (except for some intelligence) in the attack. U.S. SoS Marco Rubio released his statement on Thursday evening, noting, “We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.” Concluding his message, Rubio stated, “Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.”

    Israel’s military said about 200 aircraft were involved in Friday’s initial attack on about 100 targets. Israel from the start established complete freedom of movement in the airspace over Iran. Videos on social media show AAA guns firing blindly into the air over Tehran, totally ineffective against modern jets and munitions.

    Initial strikes decimated the senior command of Irans army, IRGC and Quds forces, in a major decapitation strike. At least nine key nuclear scientists in charge of Iran’s nuclear program were also eliminated. The loss of these generals caused Iran’s military to seize up during the critical hours of initial attacks, allowing even more successful attacks on unprepared targets.

    Israel’s attack hotspots so far:

    - Tehran
    - Tabriz
    - Qom
    - Ford
    - Natanz
    - Arak
    - Ahvaz
    - Shiraz
    - Bushehr
    - Isfahan

    All the above are the major sites of both their ballistic missiles and nuclear programs.

    Iran launched its first wave of response with more than 100 Shahed drones. The delay was mostly due to a panicked scramble to reestablish chains of command and reestablishment of control comms.
    Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the US and possibly Britain joined Israel in shooting down the Shaheed drones, none of which hit any targets.

    Later that day, Iran began to launch surviving ballistic missiles at Israel in multiple salvos. Following the start of the Iranian missile attack Friday at 9:00 PM (local) approximately 200 ballistic missiles have been launched from Iran. The IDF says that the Iranians had much broader fire plans - to launch many hundreds of ballistic missiles in each barrage - but were only able to launch 5 salvos so far, each containing between 20 and 50 missiles. There were unconfirmed reports that many missiles malfunctioned shortly after launch.

    These smaller salvos permitted the Israeli Arrow, THAAD and even Iron Dome to take out the vast majority of the missiles. I’ve only seen reports of 9 missile impacts out of this approximately 200 missiles. Iron Dome was documented as intercepting ballistic missiles (that penetrated the Arrow defense system).

    Iron Dome was designed for intercepting rockets, not missiles. Evidently, Israeli engineers and scientists made great modifications to the system to supplement defenses.

    It is estimated that Israel destroyed about 25% of the 1000-2000 missiles Iran had ready for launch (huge secondary explosions in missile depots in Kermanshah and Tabriz). At the current salvo rate, Iran could sustain this level of attack for about 10 days.

    The Israeli Air Force continues to hunt down Iranian ballistic missile launchers over western Iran. It doesn’t matter how many missiles they’ve got, the bottleneck is always the number of launchers. This is were Mossad and the swarm of Israeli reconnaissance drones are earning their pay, locating and helping to destroy these systems.

    Yesterday, Iranian leaders were reportedly seeking help from the US to stop the onslaught.

    OVERALL OBSERVATIONS (Gasping for breath)

    At risk of repeating myself, this attack is one for the history books. The level of success is a credit to the planning efforts of the military and the exceptional intelligence and infiltration of Iran by the Mossad. The level of support in the misinformation campaign by the Trump team helped immensely - even had me scratching my head as to just what they were pushing for. Checked off nearly all the boxes for any kind of an attack. As I predicted, top of the list was reducing remaining air defense, command / control strikes (the massive take out of Iranian command) and initial hits on Irans ability to retaliate.

    That last point has been made clear over the past 24 hours with the vastly reduced numbers of drones and ballistic missiles. Out of an estimated 1000-2000 rockets ready to be launched, Iran was only able to get about 200 into the air and the vast majority of those were taken down. Iran also helped Israel in that the barrages were much smaller in number, permitting air defenses to be more effective and not overwhelmed.

    WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE FUTURE.

    Israel has stated on several occasions that its efforts alone would take up to two weeks to achieve the level of destruction to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs to satisfy its immediate to short term defensive needs. Israel has complete control of air space above Iran and can almost leisurely strike and restrike targets at will. Israeli drones are swarming over key areas of Iran, many equipped with missiles for more detailed and opportunistic strike possibilities. Israeli eyes are everywhere.

    Iran will continue to have the capability to launch missiles at Israel, though this capability will continue to be degraded with each day and destruction of launch sites and TELs. This scenario is very similar to what happened to Hezbollah and Hamas.

    Iran’s path forward will be very difficult for the islamic leadership to navigate.
    Should they attempt to strike out at US bases or regional nations that provided support to Israel (Jordan and Saudi Arabia), they risk drawing direct wrath from the US. So far Trump is satisfied at letting Israel do the work and he’ll supply more bombs as necessary. But Iran’s desperate lack of air defenses should make the thought of even unstealthy B52s unleashing hell over Tehran a scary matter.

    Similar thought train on closing the Straits of Hormuz. It would open up Iran to US intervention as well as potentially European nation attacks.

    Iran is also has a very vulnerable oil production and transporting system. A strike on Kharg Island for instance would shut down 90% of their oil export capabilities. This would impact China big time who has been a major importer of Iranian oil.

    Iran could petition the US in Sunday’s negotiations for relief, but I think the US will continue to hold a hard line on the nuclear program that Iran has vowed to rebuild as well as its ballistic missile program. I don’t think Iran is willing to make the concessions at this stage to save face in the arab world. But I could be wrong. As far as I can see, the US is more than willing to let Israel play out its attacks for the next couple of weeks.

    Just about any move Iran can make at this time will only make things nearly worse by an order of magnitude. Is the ruling junta willing to go full blown jihadi and try to take the whole region down with them?

    ISRAELI OPTIONS
    Israel has nearly complete freedom of operation over Iran. It can strike wherever and when ever it desires. There are currently no serious conditions that could force them to stop their operations until they deem them to be finished - in about two weeks. So far Trump is willing to allow them to continue, even warning that worse is yet to come should Iran reject US conditions.

    Much of the targeting by Israel will now be in response to continued actions by Iran, such as more ballistic missile attacks. Israel is trying to woo the peoples of Iran who are greatly dissatisfied with the mullahs and avoiding infrastructure that would impact them in a negative way. This makes a strike on Kharg Island a lower probability target unless Iran does something very significant. Israel has hit some infrastructure as promised for Iran’s targeting of Israeli civilian centers, but seems to be doing so in a restrained manner.

    Expect the tempo to decline some as the urgency to hit first and hard is less than at the beginning. Again, unrestricted access over Iran has permitted a great deal more flexibility of targeting. Lots of inherent dangers still lie ahead, much of it depends on Iranian desperation.


    Misc of Note –

    I’ll take a moment to bleat here and possibly anger some by calling out some of those who call themselves ‘conservative’ who’ve gone the antisemitic route and want no involvement in the ongoing conflict Israel finds itself in - saying its ‘not our fight’.

    I strongly disagree with these ‘young’ people.

    They were likely in their diapers, if born yet at all, when islamic radicals captured the Embassy in Tehran in 1979 - All the while since chanting “Death to America”
    That’s when our fight started

    Lebanon - Iran suppled support to terrorist elements that killed a substantial number of US soldier in that country. This is our fight

    Iran supplied support to Iraqi militias and Afghan Taliban, killing hundreds of US soldiers. This is our fight

    Iran has illegally captured our naval vessels in the Persian Gulf region and openly humiliated their crews.
    This is our fight.

    Hamas and Hezbollah have killed Americans including US citizens held hostage by Hamas after Oct 7 - both funded and supported by Iran
    This is our fight

    Iranian backed Houthis attacked US shipping interests in the Red Sea region as well as our military vessels
    This is our fight

    A nuclear armed Iran would increase global terror by orders of magnitude. Over the years Iran has threatened the US with a nuclear strike
    This is our fight.

    I’m appalled that some of these internet voices have even gone as far as to say the US should bomb Tel Aviv

    Israel since its reestablishment has faced nearly constant attacks by arab / islamic forces. On Oct 7, it happened again by Iranian backed Hamas forces who turned Gaza into a rat hole of underground bunkers and used water pipes for the construction of rockets, Brutally attacked Israeli’s trying to live peacefully. Hezbollah had similar plans, but Hamas jumped the gun. Forcing Israel to act out of self defense. Now Israel is facing the origin of recent terror attacks on the nation, a nation who has declared its will to wipe the jewish race off the face of the entire earth, and not just the land of Israel itself.

    So to those ‘conservative’ voices out there, and I’m sure many of you know who I’m talking about, who’ve been speaking that this isn’t our fight - better do your homework and quit echoing the anti-semitic tripe out there.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/14/2025 6:21:18 AM PDT · 623 of 662
    Godzilla to Deaf Smith

    I recently instituted a three level warning system to help at least keep track of the severity of the threat to the US. It is based to weather service style of warnings.

    ADVISORY - Conditions are developing
    WARNING - Conditions are present in some sectors and can worsen quickly
    WATCH - It is the most serious threat level, active ongoing actions

    In the case of Terrorism, IMHO, conditions are ripe for incidents, very ripe and could break out, especially with Iran now hitting the fan. We have seen mulitiple lone wolf style attacks, but nothing organized or acting in a larger, coordinated manner - yet.

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/13/2025 9:56:28 AM PDT · 621 of 662
    Godzilla to grey_whiskers

    Everyday

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/13/2025 5:05:30 AM PDT · 614 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Quick snapshot of overnight events in Iran

    Entire general staff eliminated. Surprise attack caught them all in bed
    Nearly a dozen key nuclear scientists eliminated as well
    Irans air defenses eliminated. IAF operates freely
    Mossad also operating freely. Teams struck Iranian Ada nodes and key locations to prevent missile retaliatory launches.

    Natanz Nuclear Facility suffered massive damage. Other nuclear facilities hit as well

    Finally, it appears that an effective disinformation campaign by US and Israel caused Iran to be lulled into sleep. Bottom line is that they didn’t expect any thing until Sunday or later. Israel struck on day 60/61 of trumps warning.

    Some Iranian drones were launched but numbers uncertain and no reports of strikes.

    Over 5 waves and more strikes continue even as I type

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/12/2025 7:35:17 PM PDT · 612 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Iran

    It has hit the fan. Following kinda what I thought

    Major attacks taking key military and nuclear scientists
    Hits targeting command and control
    Hits on at least two nuclear facilities
    Two waves so far possible third enroute

    Loose reports that Iran has launched some missiles. Explosions at Baghdad

    Day light in a few hours will bring damage assessments

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/12/2025 6:26:06 AM PDT · 610 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Plans change, will be posting, but unlikely on Friday thru Sunday

    What a mess to work thru today though.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
    Raised due to potential use of the “No King” events by Antifa to launch riots in major cities and the rapid increase in riots in these major cities.

    National Day of Action (NO KINGS) scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
    (aka President Donald Trump 79th birthday )
    Over 1000 locations reportedly preparing to host protests.

    PLEASE NOTE - Things are developing fast and my notes below are just a skimming of what jumps out at me.

    ***

    OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
    Though rioting has increased in Portland, Seattle, Chicago and New York, the general trend has flattened out slightly. Doubt if this will last for long.

    ***
    Federal authorities are investigating the origins and funding sources of the recent wave of violent protests that began in Los Angeles and have since spread across the country.

    The FBI confirmed it is examining potential financial connections behind the demonstrations, which escalated into full-scale riots over the weekend following immigration enforcement operations.
    FBI Director Kash Patel stated in a message to Just the News, “The FBI is investigating any and all monetary connections responsible for these riots.”

    OBSERVATION - Just like killing of USAID, attacking the funding sources is the best long term action to take. Plenty of fodder for massive RICO suits. Congress also is reportedly looking into funding as well, though will not accomplish much, being more do nothing than anything else.

    RELATED - TikTokers are revealing that they were offered $200 to join the nationwide “No Kings Day” protest in NYC

    ***
    Seattle — Antifa and far-left extremists starting fires and trying to create an autonomous zone around the federal building they’re attacking. The violence is part of an insurrection against the U.S. government.

    https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1933030760866324895?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

    Took about two hours, but SeattlePD seems to have successfully broken up the crowd

    ***
    Despite receiving a written warning that Portland Police would clear their illegal occupation, far-left rioters continue gathering supplies and erecting tents around the local ICE facility. Antifa are attempting to recreate a violent take over similar to the one they did in 2018. That occupation lasted for five weeks, during which the ICE facility was shut down due to safety concerns and workers were trapped inside for hours.

    https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1933013690145444206?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

    ***
    Spokane, Wash. — Police face off against leftist open border insurrectionists.
    NOTE - Spokane is a blue dot in a very red eastern Washington

    ***
    Chicago saw protestors taking to the streets and the mayor refusing to take any action to restore order.

    OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -

    Antifa et al is reaching to capture another Floyd moments but doesn’t seem to have been able to reach the ring yet. Actions like massive displays of mexican flags and rampant looting have not swung the population over to their side, but in fact recent polling indicate just the opposite. That won’t stop them from trying to conduct the largest rioting scenario since 2020.

    We should have clarity on Newscum’s lawsuit against federalization of the NG later today. Observers note it is likely to fail, since there is overwhelming precedence and Trump using them in the narrow focus of defending federal operations and facilities. Once that hurdle is passed, I’d expect more activations focusing on Portland and Seattle first, then other major Antifa strongholds later.

    Delayed police response in Portland, Seattle and Chicago overnight (as well as initial LA attacks) show the willingness of the leftists in charge to allow damage and violence for political purposes. Not winning the hearts of the citizens.

    The apparent goal to stoke massive levels of violence across the nation this coming Saturday is the major concern. With funding of the riots coming under examination, the organizers of the “no king’ events are overtly calling for peaceful action, knowing that they could be found liable for violence and insurrection. Antifa won’t care though.

    Final note for today, ICE announcements of mew tactical units to five sanctuary cities means that unrest will continue for an extended period of time.


    Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

    The consumer price index rose 0.1% in May from April, less than the 0.2% estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also increased 0.1%, less than expected.
    “Inflation in May was lower than anticipated, suggesting the tariffs aren’t having a large immediate impact because companies have been using existing inventories or slowly adjusting prices due to uncertain demand,” said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global co-CIO of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

    OBSERVATION - Dancing around any impact from tariffs. These are good numbers and will place even greater pressure on the Fed to loosen rates.

    ***
    Oil prices edged higher on Thursday to their highest in more than two months, after U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S. personnel were being moved out of the Middle East, which raised fear that escalating tensions with Iran could disrupt supply.

    Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, 0.2%, to $69.92 a barrel at 1230 am GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude 22 cents, 0.3%, to $68.37.

    Both Brent and WTI surged more than 4% to their highest since early April on Wednesday.

    OBSERVATION - The threats by Iran to close the Straits of Hormuz should be taken literally, as it is one of its only major means of striking out at the rest of the world. Keep your gas tanks topped off 3/4 full or more for the next few weeks. For you Freepers in kalifornia, you’ll be extra screwed if this happens since Saudi oil is almost exclusively used in your refineries and will certainly cause your prices to exceed their current state of insanity.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    Initial reports that Naval Support Activity Bahrain, the home of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and U.S. Fifth Fleet, as well as other bases near the Persian Gulf have been placed on “High Alert”, with the dependents of service members being told to prepare for evacuation, possibly due to concerns of military action related to Iran.

    ***
    U.S. defense official: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations across the CENTCOM area of responsibility. CENTCOM is working in close coordination with our Department of State counterparts, as well as our Allies and partners in the region to maintain a constant state of readiness to support any number of missions around the world at any time. The safety and security of our service members and their families remains our highest priority and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is monitoring the developing tension in the Middle East

    ***
    U.S. Air Force high-frequency radio (11175 kHz) is active.

    NOTE - This frequency is used for strategic and nuclear command; activity may be routine, but it also may be tied to high-level operations.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    DNC Votes 294–99 to Nullify Vice Chair Election of David Hogg and Malcolm Kenyatta Over Gender-Diversity Rule Violation


    INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

    The US State Department is evacuating non-essential embassy staff from Bahrain and Kuwait.

    Al Dhafra Air Force Base in the United Arab Emirates has begun evacuating non-essential personnel. Evacuations have also begun at the American Al-Udeid base in Qatar.

    ***
    Washington Posts claims the U.S. has ordered all embassies in striking distance of Iran across the Middle East to convene emergency action committees and send cables back to DC


    TRUMP Watch –

    Trump claimed this morning in a post on Truth Social that a trade deal with China is “done” subject to final approval by himself and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Which includes China providing rare earth minerals to the United States in exchange for Chinese students being allowed to attend American colleges and universities,


    Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 24, 2025
    - Threat status remains elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.

    Note later that apparently Iran has launched cyberattacks against Gulf nations.


    Illegal Immigration –

    MSNBC is reporting that ICE is preparing to deploy tactical units to five sanctuary cities run by Democratic mayors.
    The list includes: Seattle, Chicago, NYC, Philadelphia, and Northern Virginia.


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 90s cooling to the 70s, mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Ukraine was attacked by 63 drones (Shahed & imitators) from multiple directions. Air defense forces shot down 49 of them across eastern, southern & northern regions. 28 were destroyed by fire, 21 neutralized by electronic warfare.

    Russian losses per 12/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

    +1140 men. Places total losses at nearly one million
    +6 tanks
    +3 AFVs
    +47 artillery
    +1 AD system

    Russian losses since 24th February 2022 are now estimated to be over a million.

    Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Oleksiivka and Horikhove(Petrovskoho) villages of Donetsk region of Ukraine

    Summary —

    Note that estimated Russia casualties have likely exceeded one million - a marker showing just how pyrrhic any Russian gains in Ukraine have been.

    Otherwise, the daily grind on the ground and in the air.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - Israel prepares for strike on Iran

    - IDF on high alert over Iranian action.

    - ADA assets being repositioned in anticipation of an Iranian attack.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Netanyahu:

    In an operational activity by the IDF and the Shin Bet in the Gaza Strip, the bodies of two of our abductees were returned to Israel - the late Yair Yaakov, and another abductee whose name has not yet been released (his family has been informed of this).

    Yair Yaakov was murdered and kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Oz by the Islamic Jihad on October 7, 2023.

    53 hostages are still in Gaza of which 20 are believed to still be alive.

    ***
    IDF “Iron Dome” batteries were observed moving to new positions overnight.

    ***
    Israel says it is prepared to hit Iran with or without US assistance.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    Hamxs murdered at least five Gaza Humanitarian Foundation aid workers tonight in Gaza, according to a GHF statement. Several others were injured, and some may have been kidnapped.

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    Israel presented its “red lines” in Syria to Tom Barrack, the U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy for Syria. These include no Turkish bases in Syria, demilitarization of southern Syria, and no renewed presence of Iran or Hezbollah. Source: Axios

    ***
    See Syria below on apparent IAF preparation exercise for an Iranian strike.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    Houthis say they are on high alert, preparing for possible attacks by Israel or the U.S. They vowed to escalate strikes against Israel over the Gaza war and warned that any assault on Iran would ignite a region-wide conflict.

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    Egypt has announced it will deny the North African Sumoud Convoy and the Global March to Gaza access to the border area near Rafah

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Wild night with significant indicators that the clock has move substantially closer to a confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program. See Iran below.

    Israel’s other actions in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria continue.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
    - May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

    ***
    Trump gave Iran 60 days from first round of talks.
    - First talks were on April 12, 2025
    - Today is June 12, 2025

    ***
    Today’s (yesterday) advisory from the UK Maritime Trade (UKMTO) and reports about the evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad are serious signs of military action against Iran. UKMTO warning covers the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman, citing potential military escalation that could directly affect shipping

    All American tankers passing through the Persian Gulf have been put on alert, and England has issued a warning to ships against escalation in the Persian Gulf.

    ***
    President Trump: ‘I used to believe we’d make a deal with Iran, but I was more optimistic a few weeks ago than now. I think they’re delaying, and that’s a shame. Something happened with Iran, I’m much less confident about a deal now.’

    ***
    Iranian Defense Minister: “In the event of war with the US, we will attack American bases in the region”
    Iran says it has plans to immediately launch a missile counter strike against Israel and US interests.

    ***
    Arab Report: Iran Raises the Alert Level of Its Defense System

    ***
    US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Congress that “there are many indications that Iran is moving toward something that looks very similar to a nuclear weapon.”

    ***
    The Iranian Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics announced that operational forces are fully prepared, and last week, we conducted a successful missile test featuring a 2-ton warhead.

    ***
    A U.S. Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft has been tracked monitoring western Iranian airspace, likely collecting signals intelligence on Iran’s air defense systems and radar activity in the region.
    The last two days have seen new tracks for the RJ’s in SEA. They have extended the orbit/patrol areas from the Persian Gulf up into the Baghdad area. Today’s orbit, depending on how much we get to see, will be telling with the increased tensions in the region.

    https://x.com/menmyrc1/status/1932993661052072052?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

    ***
    Iranian cyber attack suspected yesterday

    - The Kuwaiti Ministry of Defense website was hacked.
    - The Jordanian Air Force website was hacked and then completely removed.
    - “FlightAware” services have been hacked.
    - Government services in Saudi Arabia were disrupted at this time, and all websites crashed.

    ***
    Senator Tom Cotton, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, says that U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed that Iran is actively working towards a nuclear weapon

    ***
    After initial reports that the sixth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran had been canceled, they apparently are back on for Sunday.

    Omani FM:
    “I am pleased to confirm the 6th round of Iran US talks will be held in Muscat this Sunday the 15th.”

    ***
    The meeting of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna has come to a decision against Iran.

    The IAEA announced their decision declaring that Iran is not complying with the instructions and invocation of nonproliferation agreements.

    Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei fired off a fiery rebuke on Thursday, slamming the U.S., France, UK, and Germany for allegedly weaponizing the IAEA Board of Governors to question Iran’s peaceful nuclear vibes.

    Calling a fresh resolution “baseless, unjust, and politically charged,” he didn’t hold back, even taking a swipe at IAEA chief Rafael Grossi.

    Baghaei accused Grossi of bias, warning his recent remarks are tanking the UN watchdog’s credentials. “He’s directly to blame for this mess and needs to ditch the politics,” Baghaei quipped, stirring the pot!

    IAEA board declares Iran in breach of non-proliferation duties, diplomats say

    For the first time in twenty years the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officially holds Iran in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

    OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Where to start?

    The swarm of indicators that the dam was about to break restraining Israel (and the US) from military strikes to take out Iran’s nuclear program started flashing red all over the place.

    If the recalculation of Trump’s 60 days is accurate, the talks that may or may not happen Sunday will likely be the end if Iran doesn’t bend to US demands. Iran’s counter proposal reportedly falls far short of those demands and adds even more no-gos to the list.

    Iran’s sudden acceptance of a Sunday meeting may also show desperation knowing that its time is short and Trump is finally seeing their efforts as delays. US intel as well as IAEA reports (not to mention Iran’s own chest beating) indicates the regime is racing for the bomb now. That is the ultimate red line for the US and Israel.

    Realization of this and likely impending action triggered evacuations of non-essentials and warnings across the region.

    Key intelligence indicators
    - Embassy evacuations
    - Military bases moved to high alert
    - Modifications to previous routine intelligence platform operations (Rivet Joint)
    - More active U.S. Air Force high-frequency radio (11175 kHz) comms

    HOW CLOSE TO AN ATTACK ARE WE NOW?
    I though I’d wake to reports of airstrikes. Now it appears this was a precursor preparation exercise. Rolling things back to a window opening in several days, most likely anchored to talks on Sunday. Those talks are not expected to result in any breakthroughs.

    Several days will also give embassies and military bases time to get non-essentials off site and forces to assume offensive/defensive postures.

    Though Israel has made plans to go it alone, it is likely that the US will participate as well. These extra days will permit final coordination between CENTCOM and Israel as well preparation of US forces, likely strategic bombers (B2) that will carry the massive penetrators against Iranian facilities

    Likely scenario / sequence

    - Initial airstrikes to deal with remaining elements of Iranian air defenses and key ballistic missile sites. Hitting command and control sites.
    - Penetration bombing of underground Iranian facilities by all elements, highlighted by B2s
    - Force protection operations targeting ballistic and anti-shipping missile operations, and Iranian naval assets.
    - Follow on strikes to re-hit targets as necessary.
    - Possible targeting of the Mullahs and other Iranian leadership.

    This will likely be a multi week operation.


    Iraq -

    The US Embassy in Iraq is preparing for an ordered evacuation amid rising security threats, according to an Iraqi security official and a US source. - Reuters

    ***
    Iraqi sources are reporting that Iran is currently jamming GPS systems in Iraqi territory.

    ***
    U.S. intelligence assessments suggest Iran-backed militias in Iraq and across the region are preparing to strike American interests, according to Al Arabiya’s Joseph Haboush.


    Syria -

    Arab Reports - Two waves of what are believed to be Israeli aircraft entered the airspace of the rural area of ​​Al-Quntra, in southern Syria.
    The first group of planes flew east, over the airspace of the Sweida area.

    OBSERVATION - Rumors were that these aircraft were enroute to Iran, but now appears to have been a training exercise, probably in preparation for an eventual strike.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/11/2025 4:45:59 PM PDT · 605 of 662
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    FLASH. . . . . FLASH. . . . .FLASH

    IRAN

    New indicators crossing my feeds strongly indicate that Israeli planes are enroute to Iran. These are unconfirmed, but generally reliable in the past

    Arab news sources reporting that two waves of Israeli jets have crossed into S Syria in the general direction towards Iran

    Iran reportedly jamming GPS over Iraq on probable air attack routes.

    The infamous Pizza indicator shows a significant spike in pizzas delivered to the pentagon.

    Significant cyber attack against gulf nations believed to have originated in Iran

    Senator Tom Cotton, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, says that U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed that Iran is actively working towards a nuclear weapon

    The sixth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran has been canceled.

    American media: If there is no last-minute change, Trump is preparing to announce the collapse of talks with Iran.

    Israel has been on record that they can launch within 7 hours.

    Folks, the move to create a bomb and the collapse of the talks have been the trigger for action. Again, some of the movements are unconfirmed, but in the overall scenario believable. Al-Jazeera now switching to war coverage,

    Stuff is happening and fast! Tracking more and will try to post more info as it is breaking fast.

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    06/11/2025 2:25:26 PM PDT · 602 of 662
    Godzilla to grey_whiskers

    Same here, Keep it above 3/4 tank at all times