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Posts by Godzilla

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  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/24/2025 8:02:10 AM PDT · 441 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Globalism / Great Reset –

    A powerful but little-known UN agency is quietly plotting to impose global taxes on international maritime shipping under the guise of fighting CO2 emissions and “climate change.” Americans are expected to pay the bulk of the financial costs. But all of humanity will bear the brunt of an empowered UN.

    The International Maritime Organization (IMO) scheme to tax shipping, originally backed by the Biden administration, would give the UN unprecedented power to raise money on its own. It will also lead to soaring costs for U.S. consumers while transforming the nature of the UN forever.

    There are several more rounds of negotiations to be finalized. But if all goes according to plan, the UN could be vacuuming up billions of dollars each week by 2027.

    The taxation plot comes as the UN’s “World Court,” known officially as the International Court of Justice (ICJ), is preparing to rule on the supposed “legal obligations” of governments with respect to “climate change.” UN officials are calling the case the most important in history.

    https://harbingersdaily.com/fueling-globalism-in-the-name-of-climate-change-the-un-seeks-to-collect-carbon-tax-on-global-shipments/

    OBSERVATION - The article notes, the UN’s inability to tax has been a major check on its power to control the world, and efforts have been ongoing over the past decade for them to weasel something in, to put the nose of the camel under the tent, so to speak.

    ***
    The British government plans to approve experiments that seek ways to dim sunlight and deflect it away from the Earth in an effort to tackle so-called “runaway climate change.”

    The new plan comes with a host of possible climate control options pending government approval, The Telegraph reported.

    These options include injecting aerosols into the atmosphere and brightening clouds to reflect sunlight back into space.

    ARIA, the government’s Advanced Research and Invention Agency, has £50 million set aside for projects, which will be announced in the coming weeks.

    https://www.dailyfetched.com/uk-govt-approves-new-plans-to-dim-the-sun-to-fight-runaway-climate-change/

    OBSERVATION - The level of stupid is incredible in this approach. What is absent is the FACT that plants - ie food - will be very negatively impacted. Or perhaps the loss of food production is a desired byproduct of the experiment as well, given the globalists dream of reducing the global population by billions.

    Taking a hint from history, the year 1816 is known as the Year Without a Summer because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C. Summer temperatures in Europe were the coldest of any on record between 1766 and 2000, resulting in crop failures and major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere. Evidence suggests that the anomaly was predominantly a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in April in modern-day Indonesia.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated Jan 19, 2025
    May Day - May 1st

    With the weekend approaching, there continue to be minor protests covering a wide range of grievances across the country. As in the past, there is no evidence of significant violence or vandalism, though localized incidents can occur. Be situationally aware.


    Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
    - Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

    (FO) DOJ INDICTS FIRST TDA LEADER ON TERRORISM CHARGES: The Department of Justice (DOJ) unsealed charges against a high-ranking Tren de Aragua (TdA) member, including conspiracy to provide material support to a designated foreign terrorist organization.

    An Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) official said the FBI assessed that Venezuelan government officials will likely leverage TdA contacts in the U.S. to threaten, abduct, or kill Venezuelan nationals critical of the Venezuelan government in the next six to 18 months.


    Illegal Immigration –

    On Monday, DOJ officials unsealed indictments against 27 current or former members of the Tren de Aragua (TdA) gang. Officials report that 21 of the 27 indicted gang members are currently in federal custody.

    ‘As alleged, Tren de Aragua is not just a street gang - it is a highly structured terrorist organization that has destroyed American families with brutal violence, engaged in human trafficking, and spread deadly drugs through our communities,’ U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi said in a written statement. ‘Today’s indictments and arrests span three states and will devastate TdA’s infrastructure as we work to completely dismantle and purge this organization from our country.’

    The RICO charge allows the feds to treat the gang as a high-level racketeering organization. Instead of merely pursuing individuals (often low-level lackeys), it can target and dismantle the gang itself by freezing leaders’ assets and charging anyone connected to the gang’s activities.

    https://notthebee.com/article/the-doj-is-pursuing-rico-charges-against-venezuelan-tda-members

    OBSERVATION - Pending the flood of hand wringing leftist lawyers in 3……2……1…..


    Russia -

    Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    *****

    Russia’s Shoigu claims EU peacekeepers in Ukraine could trigger World War III—and calls Ukraine “our historical territory.”

    Russia wants full control over Ukraine, no interference from Europe, and a clear path to rearm and try again.

    Russian Personnel Issues –-

    The Kremlin appears to be increasingly concerned with the Russian military’s ability to retain forces in the event of demobilization following a ceasefire or a negotiated peace.

    Russian milbloggers expressed doubts that the Russian MoD will be able to retain the current size of the Russian military if the Russian MoD does not promise — and honor — increased financial benefits.


    Ukraine –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

    WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Overnight, Russia launched a massive combined air attack on Ukraine using drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Kyiv faced one of the largest attacks to date: 10 killed, over 100 injured, homes and cars on fire. A North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile reportedly struck a residential building in Sviatoshynskyi district. Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, and Pavlohrad were also hit.

    Shot down:
    7/11 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
    31/37 Kh-101 cruise missiles
    0/6 Iskander-K cruise missiles
    6/12 Kalibr cruise missiles
    4/4 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
    132/145 Shahed drones (64 shot down, 68 lost in location)

    Kyiv was hit hard by the combination of missiles and drones.
    Kharkiv was hit with 14 drone strikes and 10 missiles, according to Mayor Terekhov. Industrial sites were damaged, along with apartment buildings, a clinic, a school, and a hotel complex.

    Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missile launches were detected from Russian Tu-95MS “Bear” long-range strategic bombers over the Saratov Oblast of Southwestern Russia, while 3M54-1 “Kalibr” cruise missile launches were detected from Russian naval ships in the Black Sea

    Russian losses per 24/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

    +1080 men
    +3 tanks
    +5 AFVs
    +49 artillery
    +1 MLRS

    Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

    Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Bohdanivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

    Summary —

    Overnight was one of the largest missile / drone attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war. Important to note that Russia risked deploying missile vessels into the Black Sea in substantial force in well over a year, challenging Ukraine’s control and neutering of the Black Sea fleet. Uncertain if this level of attack was in retribution to Ukraines destruction of the 51st GRAU arsenal, but is certainly fits into the recent attacks designed to bring terror to civilians and attempt to demoralize the nation in the face of US reluctance to continue support to Ukraine’s war efforts and bolster Russia’s effort to rekindle offensive actions at the front.

    Speaking of the front, Russian losses suggest action continued to be generally moderate. Ukraine though continued to report moderately high numbers of ground attacks - though these attacks are not broken out by size of the attack and in many cases reflect small, company size or smaller assaults.

    Russia continues to masterfully pull the strings of Europe and the US in causing dissension and confusion in support of Ukraine. Not since the beginning of the war has Russia been able to maintain such a large initiative to control the information battlefield.

    Ukraine’s refusal to accept any ceding of Crimea to Russia may move them closer to attempting to destroy the Kerch Bridge. Such an action may well generate another massive attack by Russia, but more so, seriously hurt it economically and militarily as they would struggle to supply the basic needs of citizens in Crimea as well as get war supplies to the southern front. Recent Ukraine reported Ukraine strikes may be targeting Russian air defense radars and systems again, making the bridge vulnerable. Last nights attack may also give Ukraine more leverage to get their hands on the German heavy cruise missiles that have the punch to take the bridge out.


    Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025

    PM Narendra Modi has said India will punish “every terrorist and their backers” following an attack that killed 26 people in Indian-administered Kashmir The country has closed its main border crossing with Pakistan, expelled its military diplomats and suspended a landmark water-sharing treaty - Pakistan has denied involvement in the attack

    There’s been no official confirmation yet on who carried out the atrocity but some media reports say an offshoot of Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba may have claimed responsibility

    Kashmir, which is claimed by both India and Pakistan in its entirety, has been a flashpoint for decades. Indian-administered Kashmir has seen a decades-long insurgency which has claimed thousands of lives - but attacks on tourists have been rare

    ***
    Measures India announced against Pakistan.

    - Suspension of the landmark Indus Waters Treaty which allowed for the sharing of river waters between the neighbours

    - Shutting of a key border crossing with Pakistan that allowed for the movement of people and goods
    - Suspension of all visa services for Pakistani nationals
    - Declaring military advisers in the Pakistani high commission in Delhi as ‘persona non grata’, ordering them to leave within a week
    - Reducing the number of Pakistani diplomats in India to 30 from 55 from 1 May.

    In response, Pakistan has hit back with an almost identical set of reciprocal measures against Delhi:

    - Rejection of India’s suspension of the water treaty, saying any attempt to stop or divert the water “will be considered as an Act of War”
    - Suspension of all visas issued to Indian nationals under an exemption scheme with immediate effect
    - Suspension of all bilateral agreements with India
    - Reduction in the number of diplomats in the Indian high commission in Islamabad to 30
    - Closure of Wagah border with immediate effect
    - Closure of Pakistani air space to all Indian-owned or Indian-operated airlines
    - Suspension of all trade with India

    ***
    India suspended Indus Waters Treaty (signed in 1960)
    Reportedly 80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land—about 16 million hectares—relies on water from the Indus system.
    Pakistan threatening to destroy Indian dams to resume the flow of water - even if it takes nuclear warheads.

    ***
    Movement of surveillance aircraft of Pakistan Airforce, is just seen in the airspace of Pakistan.
    According to sources, there is also fear of LoC violation by India, tonight.

    ***
    Pakistan announces live-fire naval drills in the Arabian Sea near the maritime border with India

    OVERALL OBSERVATION -
    There may be cross border action by India targeting terrorist bases. It is assumed that these terrorists are receiving covert aid by the Pakistani govt. Recent statements by high ranking Pakistani military leaders also show an inclination towards jihad against India.

    Of critical concern is the escalation of any fighting to the level of using nuclear weapons. Both nations gained nuclear weapons in 1999, and since then there have been five cross-border clashes, four of which were skirmishes in disputed territory. Pakistan is the only state with a first use policy but limits it to imminent nuclear attack and a failure to repel an invasion.

    In this current crisis, Pakistan has threatened the use of nukes over water cutoffs by India.

    Military comparisons show India to be significantly more powerful than Pakistan, both in size of military as well as equipment. India has a big advantage on the land, sea and air. India has been deep into a modernization program to counter Chinese threats along the border and has grown in size over the past decade. Pakistan’s military equipment may well have degraded over time with older equipment being retained and newer equipment in short supply. The influx of Taliban supporting tribes along the border with Afghanistan have shifted a lot of the military thought of Pakistan as well as sucked away a lot of funding for military maintenance and improvement.

    Action indicators are fuzzy at the moment as there are no good, confirmed reports of significant military movement towards the disputed area. At current, some of the reported actions could be considered at the chest beating level. Of near term concern is the inclination of Pakistani military leaders to go to war, and the civilian govt needing the military support to stay in power may go along with them.


    ISRAEL –
    Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

    Key overnight developments -

    - Holocaust Remembrance Day

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Today is Holocaust Remembrance Day. At 10am, sirens sound across Israel, prompting everyone to stand in silence for one minute, in memory of the six million Jews murdered in Holocaust.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    On the streets of Gaza, more and more Palestinians are expressing open defiance against the armed group that’s ruled the strip for almost 20 years.

    ***
    Mahmoud Abbas unloads on Hamas:
    “Sons of dogs—hand over the hostages!”
    In a rare public rebuke, Abbas demands Hamas release captives, disarm, and cede control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority.
    He also slammed Hamas for giving Israel the excuse to “destroy Gaza” and warned of a “new Nakba.”
    Source: Jerusalem Post

    ***
    IAF continued to make targeted, drone strikes across the territory

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    US airstrikes continue

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Israel is judging just how much more pressure to place on Hamas to extract the largest number of hostages before Hamas completely rejects any offer. There is some thought that Israel’s planning is based on the knowledge that Hamas afterwards will become increasingly resistant to further releases unless its outrageous demands are met. At which time, with a many of the hostages released as possible, Israel will bring the final hammer down.

    The weakness of Hamas is being reflected by the ‘courage’ of Abbas to speak out. He talks tough only when things are going his way and not when his position is on the line. Increased protests against Hamas is another indicator. I’ve noted protests in the past - but they have ebbed and flowed based on Hamas repression and murder of leaders. Those efforts apparently have not suppressed hostile Gazan reaction - especially with the ongoing Israeli squeeze play.

    Hezbollah leadership and activities are still being targeted in Lebanon with drone strikes. Otherwise things are relatively stable.

    Iran - clock continues to tick.


    Iran –
    Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
    - May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.

    ***
    Iran has agreed to allow an IAEA technical team into the country in the coming days to discuss reinstalling surveillance cameras at its nuclear sites, UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi confirmed.

    ***
    Iran is reinforcing two underground tunnel complexes tied to its main nuclear site, possibly preparing them for use as nuclear facilities, according to satellite images reviewed by the Institute for Science and International Security.

    ***
    US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Iran can have a civil nuclear program to produce energy if they import enriched material.

    “We do not want to see war. This is not a president that campaigned on starting wars. And as he said very clearly, Iran is not going to have a nuclear weapon and he reserves every right to prevent that from happening, but he would prefer it not happen. He would prefer that there not be a need to resort to military force, either by us or anybody else. He would prefer that it’d be something that we can negotiate.”

    He added: “The Iranians have shown a willingness to talk. We’re going to talk to them. If Iran wants a civil nuclear program, they can have one just like many other countries in the world have one. That is, they import enriched material.”

    The U.S. has proposal was rejected according to senior Iranian official Ali Shamkhani.

    OBSERVATION - The negotiations ‘dance’ continues but as Iran continues to reject US offers, they come dangerously closer to reaching the unstated red line on not willing to negotiate in an honest manner. Rubio’s statement above indicates that to some degree. Rubio is a war hawk towards Iran.

    Iranian attempts to reinforce significant underground facilities has worked to help US warplanes to identify critical targets. Those entrance works are soft when compared to the big bunker busters the US has. Destroy the relatively shallow access tunnels and the collateral damage to deeper areas also occurs.

    Currently, some view the identified sites as potential enriched uranium storage and centrifuge storage sites.


    JORDAN -

    Jordan bans the Muslim Brotherhood from operating in the country’s territory

    Jordan announced a move to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood movement in the country following the exposure of the terrorist cell operating in the kingdom. Police took over the movement’s offices.

    The King of Jordan walks a fine line. Over the years, the popularity of islamic groups like Muslim Brotherhood has grown and threaten his kingdom, limiting his ability to take them out without stirring up public opposition.


    Misc of Note –

    I’m changing of my threat level notes on some categories to a similar scale used for like weather incidents Rough definitions I’m using as follows -

    Threat Level - ADVISORY - Judging from sources that this category could develop into a serious incident

    Threat Level - WATCH - Conditions are very ripe to develop into a situation that impacts the US. Could include small incidents occurring that could escalate into a major incident. Could changer to WARNING on short notice.

    Threat Level - WARNING - Incident is either currently happening or expected to happen in the very near term.

    I will continue to post the date I’ve reviewed the warning, just to keep me on track.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/23/2025 11:01:39 AM PDT · 435 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    WAR ALERT

    Situation between India and Pakistan is deteriorating. Receiving reports that India is expelling all Pakistanis while the Pakistani army has reportdly gone to full alert status.

    These are nuclear armed nations folks, though at this stage nuclear conflict is not anticipated, but potentially a replay of historic Kashmir battles.

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/23/2025 9:02:57 AM PDT · 434 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Things got crazy this morning, delaying the post. Sorry.


    Globalism / Great Reset –

    Klaus Schwab’s interim replacement as chairman at the World Economic Forum, is none other than Peter Brabeck-Letmathe — ex-Nestlé CEO, supporter of the 4th Industrial Revolution, food supply poisoner, and the guy who said water isn’t a human right.

    Clearly another in a line of James Bond villains - check out his photo

    Now add to the intrigue - WSJ reports Klaus Schwab is now under investigation by the WEF, the very organization he founded, for financial fraud and ethical misconduct just a day after stepping down.

    ***
    The World Health Organization has announced a sweeping overhaul following significant U.S. funding cuts and its decision to move forward with the pandemic treaty—without American involvement.

    WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus admitted that the funding blow will force the organization to scale down its program divisions drastically, reducing them from 10 to just four.

    The financial strain is so severe that the agency may be forced to lay off up to 40% of its staff.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
    May Day - May 1st

    (FO) Revolutionary anarchist groups in Seattle, Washington and Portland, Oregon have announced events on 01 May, otherwise known as May Day or International Workers Day.
    Portland anarchists announced a picnic from 4:30-7:00pm, while Seattle anarchists announced a bonfire that starts at 5:00pm.

    FO OBSERVATION - May Day is historically a popular day/night for Antifa groups to engage in violent and disruptive direct action. Anarchist events that devolve into direct action demonstrations – things like vandalism, arson, and other criminal activity – will typically include messaging like “bring a friend, wear a mask,” implying that direct action will occur. This year’s May Day announcements are pretty bland.


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    President Donald Trump said Tuesday he has no plans to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as the president continued his pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates.

    “I have no intention of firing him,” Trump said on April 22 in the Oval Office, after a swearing-in ceremony for new Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins. “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates. This is a perfect time to lower interest rates.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-says-no-intention-of-firing-powell-presses-fed-to-cut-rates-5845937?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=TheLibertyDaily

    OBSERVATION - Tension between Trump and Powell caused the markets heartburn which has currently receded.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    Two U.S. Air Force E-3 “Sentry” Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft arrived earlier today in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area-of-responsibility, from Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma.
    USAF 79-0001 E-3G Sentry call sign EDGY26 Hex #AE11E7
    USAF 75-0556 E-3B Sentry callsign EDGY25 Hex #AE11D6

    OBSERVATION - Many observers are noting that the arrival of these aircraft mark a sharp escalation of the preparations for war in the region - most likely targeting Iran. I agree. If this is a joint US / Israel operation, there are going to be a lot of aircraft up in the region and these aircraft will be very necessary to keep things orderly.

    ***
    Airlift continues. At least 8 US Air Force heavy transport aircraft landed yesterday at Nevatim Air Base in southern Israel.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday that he will support every sitting House Democrat in the 2026 midterms, pushing back against efforts by Democratic National Committee (DNC) Vice Chair David Hogg to replace several incumbents with younger challengers in upcoming primaries.
    During an interview on ABC News’ This Week with Jonathan Karl, Jeffries made it clear he will stand by all Democratic incumbents, regardless of their position on the ideological spectrum.

    “Well, I look forward to standing behind every single Democratic incumbent, from the most progressive, to the most centrist, and all points in between,” Jeffries said.

    The remarks came just days after Leaders We Deserve — a political organization founded by Hogg in 2023 — announced a $20 million plan aimed at supporting younger Democratic candidates in safe blue districts, even if it means backing primary challengers against sitting Democrats.
    The move has sparked significant backlash within the party, particularly among House Democrats who see the effort as undermining unity ahead of critical midterm elections.

    https://www.drewberquist.com/2025/04/dem-civil-war-hakeem-jeffries-fights-david-hoggs-push-to-primary-incumbents-watch/

    OBSERVATION - I’ve been mentioning that there has been a lot of internal fighting within the democrat party over the resistance (or what some see as the lack thereof) to trump. This is just the most recent round. DNC Vice Chair Hogg a few days later did a 180 and said he’d support all candadates, tossing in $100 K for election efforts.


    TRUMP Watch –

    The White House:
    Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16.

    OBSERVATION - Potential link with preparations for an Iranian strike - see Israel and Iran below.


    China -

    China signaled openness to trade talks with the U.S. after Trump suggested cutting tariffs, but warned it won’t negotiate under threats. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, “We don’t want a trade war, but we’re not afraid of one.” Both sides appear to be softening their tone, though a quick deal remains unlikely.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Both U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff are no longer planning to attend tomorrow’s meeting in London with senior officials from NATO and Ukraine. Instead the meeting will be attended alone by President Trump’s Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg

    Ukraine talks in London are postponed after the US pulls out amid Kyiv objections to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea

    Russia launched 134 Shahed drones of which 67 were shot down. Another 47 were lost in location without negative consequences.
    There is significant damage in Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv and Kyiv

    Russian losses per 23/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

    +1210 men
    +8 tanks
    +11 AFVs
    +85 artillery
    +1 MLRS
    +1 AD system

    Russian Territory –

    Russia’s 51st GRAU arsenal suffered a violent series of explosions this yesterday as a mix of stored munitions cooked off. following what appears to have been a large-scale drone attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The depot appears to have been completely destroyed, with the fireballs and billowing smoke being seen all the way from the outskirts of Moscow.

    The facility, just northeast of Moscow, suddenly exploded around 4:00 PM local.
    “Many people have their windows blown out. And the explosions are not stopping. There is an ongoing sound of rockets whistling in all directions,” locals report about the attack on the 51th GRAU arsenal. Explosions in Vladimir region heard were over 60+ km away.

    NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) shows nearly the entirety of the 51st Main Missile and Artillery Directorate’s (GRAU) Arsenal in the Vladimir Oblast of Western Russia engulfed in flames, following today’s drone attack by Ukraine.

    Russia’s 51st GRAU ammo depot in Vladimir Oblast burned through the night and is still on fire. Preliminary estimates suggest up to 80% of stored munitions may have been destroyed.

    Summary —

    Nasty hit on the Russian ammo depot - one of Russia’s largest ones.
    Otherwise, same old same old on the front.


    Europe / NATO General –

    European Commission: Russia must end its war of aggression, withdraw its forces, and return territory to Ukraine.


    Pakistan / India –

    New Delhi — At least 26 people were killed and many others injured Tuesday, the vast majority of them tourists, when suspected militants opened fire on civilians in Indian-controlled Kashmir, according to Indian authorities in the region. Tens of thousands of Indian security forces spread out across Kashmir a day after the attack, as police, army and paramilitary forces continued their manhunt for the perpetrators.

    The attack took place in South Kashmir’s Pahalgam area, a scenic destination dotted with meadows and glaciers that attracts hundreds of thousands of Indian and foreign tourists every summer.

    “Our reports say that two-three militants appeared and opened indiscriminate fire at the tourists,” The Indian Express newspaper quoted a senior police officer as saying, without naming him.

    The brutal attack occurred days after an aggressive speech by the Pakistani army chief, who declared: “Those who do not live by Sharia law are not true Pakistanis.”

    Prime Minister Modi rushed back to India after the terror attack with his plane avoiding Pakistan airspace.

    OBSERVATION - About a year ago tensions were high in this region due to pakistani terrorists that caused India to launch attacks on terrorist bases. Indicators are this group of terrorists have govt backing. Area has been in dispute for decades and this event has the danger of ramping up to a serious military confrontation.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Yesterday’s Egypt/Qatar hostage/ceasefire proposal rejected by Hamas

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Trump: I’ve just spoken to Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, relative to numerous subjects including Trade, Iran, etc. The call went very well— We are on the same side of every issue.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    Israel Hayom, citing sources: The Chief of Staff presented the cabinet ministers with a military plan to continue the operation in Gaza.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    U.S. military strikes in Yemen in recent weeks have killed at least 500 Houthi fighters, including senior commanders, a Saudi newspaper reported on Tuesday, based on interviews with U.S. officials and Yemen’s information minister.

    https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/u-s-military-strikes-yemen/2025/04/22/id/1207838/

    ***
    Houthi fired a ballistic missile at Israel, the first in about four days. It was successfully intercepted.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Israel continues the pressure on Hamas, taking more terrain and hitting more leaders

    Lebanon and Syria stable

    Iran still on the edge with more US assets positioning into the region. Especially AWACS.


    Iran –
    - May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.

    ***

    The United States Treasury issued fresh Iran-related sanctions on Tuesday, the Department’s website showed, amid ongoing talks between the two countries on Tehran’s nuclear program

    Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the new U.S. energy sanctions expose the hypocrisy of Washington’s calls for dialogue with Tehran.

    ***
    Trump’s visit to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16 may indicate the extent that he has given Iran an extension of his “window” to negotiate a nuclear weapons deal. Initially estimated to end around May 5th, is unlikely Trump would visit the region after a major airstrike on Iran. This trip is likely to tell these countries as to what is going to happen and some other details necessary to maintain their support for the operation. Qatar is unlikely to be very supportive, as home to the Hamas elites.

    Arrival of AWACS to the region is a significant sign that preparations are going forward and that Trump’s delay to give Iran room to negotiate is fast coming to an end.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/22/2025 6:12:11 AM PDT · 433 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    U.S. stock index futures rose Tuesday, bouncing back after equities tumbled in the previous session, when President Donald Trump’s criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell rattled investors.

    All three major indexes ended Monday’s session down more than 2% after Trump redoubled his attacks against Powell for not cutting interest rates, sparking concern about the central bank’s independence and the future monetary policy path.

    https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/stocks-corporate-earnings/2025/04/22/id/1207809/

    OBSERVATION - Markets continue to be volatile. Gold has shot to new records, near $3500/oz.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is facing round two of a campaign to delegitimize him and try to force him out. New allegation of information leaks have sprung following the expulsion of 3 high level aids in his headquarters over the Signal scandal of a couple weeks ago.

    Remember, there were reports shortly after Trump was elected of core elements of the Pentagon conspiring on ways to disrupt and stop Trump actions to reform and eliminate deep state assets. Hegseth poses a huge threat to those deep state assets.

    NPR is claiming that Trump is looking for a replacement. Well its NPR. . . . . .

    I suspect he will be able to weather this round of attacks as well, as long as he has Trump’s support and externals indicate that to be the case.


    TRUMP Watch –

    Trump sat with kids at the Easter Egg roll and colored a bunny blue. “I’ve never seen one colored blue” so he decided to do so with the kids.


    Illegal Immigration –

    Ongoing legal battles over deportations and visa revocations. USSC receiving all kinds of flack for its middle of the night restraining order preventing more Venezuelans from being deported.


    China -

    The Chinese government on Monday warned other countries against curbing trade with China in order to win a reprieve from American tariffs, promising to retaliate against countries that do so.

    The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it was responding to foreign media reports that President Trump’s administration was trying to pressure other countries on their trade with China as a negotiating tactic.

    “Appeasement will not bring peace, and compromise will not earn respect,” the ministry said in a statement. “Seeking so-called exemptions by harming the interests of others for one’s own selfish and shortsighted gains is like negotiating with a tiger for its skin. In the end, it will only lead to a lose-lose situation.”

    China “firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” it said, adding that China would “resolutely take countermeasures.” (NYT)

    https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/04/21/china-warns-against-siding-with-the-us-on-trade-deals-n3802004

    OBSERVATION - Economically isolating China has been one of Trump’s goals, and so far it seems to be working. I read that India is now looking to side with the US against China on this. China burned a lot of bridges over the past several years with their bullying and aggression in the S China Sea region and its come back to bite them.

    ***
    China is reporting that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) drove a Philippine Navy corvette away from the Scarborough Shoal over the weekend. The Philippines denies China’s legality for the maneuver but did not deny the event.
    And they wonder why they are not receiving support from countries in the region in their tariff war with the US. . . .


    Russia -

    *****
    Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled he is open to bilateral talks with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since the early stages of the war.
    Speaking to Russian state TV on Monday, Putin said Russia has “always looked positively on any peace initiatives. We hope that representatives of the Kyiv regime will feel the same way”.

    Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Putin’s comments indicated a willingness to engage in direct talks with Ukraine about not striking civilian targets.
    Zelensky did not respond directly to Putin’s comments, but said Ukraine was “ready for any conversation” that would ensure the safety of civilians.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpq7ywvw1lzo

    Kremlin: A viable settlement to the Ukrainian crisis is unlikely to be reached in the short timeframe

    OBSERVATION - putin playing his propaganda efforts like a master violinist.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..

    RUMINT –
    Russia has reportedly deployed 6 missile carriers to the Black Sea—total volley up to 46 Kalibrs, monitoring groups say.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Overnight, Russia launched 54 Shahed drones of which 38 were shot down. Another 16 were lost in location.

    At this moment, 20 Shaheds are inside Ukrainian airspace mainly heading for Kyiv.

    About 26 Shahed-type drones are circling over Black Sea near Odesa with multiple strikes.

    NOTE - Ukraine’s numbers are not adding up.

    Russian losses per 22/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

    +1130 men
    +4 tanks
    +19 AFVs
    +26 artillery
    +1 AD system

    This period does’t reflect the Zaporizhzhia action which should show up tomorrow.

    Kursk -
    Russia forces are maintaining heavy pressures to force remaining Ukraine forces out of Russia.

    Kharkiv Front -
    At least 12 drone strikes were reported in Kharkiv

    Zaporizhzhia Axis -

    A massive Russian assault in the Zaporizhzhia axis was crushed by the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade — over 300 troops and 40+ vehicles, including tanks and IFVs, advanced but were spotted early by Ukrainian drones.

    Artillery and UAV strikes began 8km out, followed by fierce resistance from infantry using small arms and mortars. After a two-hour battle, 29 enemy vehicles and around 140 troops were destroyed. Not a single Ukrainian position was lost.

    Summary —

    New Shahed tactics have restored the value of these cheap weapons to Russia’s battle arsenal. Fewer launches are resulting in more drones getting past the air defenses that earlier, pre modified tactic months involving much higher numbers.
    Besides Kyiv, it is key to note other primary targets have been Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.

    Zaporizhzhia continues to show signs of an effort to get a new Russian offensive off the ground. This appears to be the third battalion sized mechanized assault in the region in the past couple weeks. However, Ukraine’s integrated drone/artillery/anti-tank defensive effort keeps breaking up these assaults. Early detection has also been key. Russian losses in these battles are relatively well documented as the surveillance drones match the action recorded by the FPV attack drones. An attack in the Zaporizhzhia region would first be an effort to reclaim territory retaken by Ukraine a couple of years ago in its botched offensive. More terrain - more leverage in any ceasefire talks.

    Terrain capture is becoming important in other areas of the front. For example, after nearly a year of trying to seize Pokrovsk, Russian forces have shifted their attacks to lesser defended areas to the southwest of the city - tactically insignificant except that it is more territory held for Russia.

    And speaking of ceasefires, I don’t give much credibility to putin’s reported tastes offer for negotiation.

    Final note - if the Black Sea fleet is deploying missile boats into the Black Sea, things there could get interesting soon. The fleet has been pretty much out of the picture for well over a year after losses of key vessels both in port as well as the open sea. One vessel reportedly did venture out a couple weeks ago and fire its missiles.
    Ukraine is likely on high alert because the additional missiles, combined with bomber launched assets and Shahed drones, could result in a very punishing attack. Such an attack IMHO could well signal the ‘official’ start of the Russia spring offensive and indicated what the strategic and tactical objectives are.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - New Egypt/Qatar hostage/ceasefire proposal

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Qatar and Egypt have proposed a new deal to end the war in Gaza and free the hostages, the BBC reported on Tuesday, citing a senior Palestinian Arab official familiar with the negotiations.

    According to the report, the mediators are proposing a five-to-seven-year halt to hostilities, the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian Arab prisoners held in Israeli jails, a formal end to the war, and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

    The Arab official told the BBC that Hamas has indicated that it is prepared to concede governance of Gaza to “any Palestinian entity agreed upon at the national and regional level”. He noted this could be the Judea and Samaria-based Palestinian Authority (PA) or a new administrative body.

    The official called the current mediation effort “serious” and said the terror organization had shown “unprecedented flexibility”.

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/407188

    ***
    CENTCOM Chief General Kurilla will visit Israel in the coming days to ensure US & Israel are aligned on Iran, Kurilla is known as a strong supporter of attacking Tehran’s nuclear program.
    Israeli Air Force intensifies prep for strike in Iran, either independent or jointly with US.
    (Israel Radar)

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    IDF fighter jets ended a wave of attacks in the Gaza Strip, during which dozens of tractors used by the murderous terrorist organization Hamas were attacked and destroyed.
    Bulldozers, equipment, and trucks were located at the Jabalia Al-Nazla Municipality garage, north of the Gaza Strip.

    NOTE - earlier, IAF was targeting white Toyota trucks used by Hamas and displayed proudly at the various hostage release ceremonies.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Israeli army: We targeted Islamic Group leader Hussein Atwi in an airstrike in Lebanon.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    Houthis continue to be hammered by US airstrikes. It also appears that the US is hitting areas critical for opposition ground actions to move in from the north and south.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    The Egypt / Qatar ceasefire proposal is just warmed up elements of other failed proposals and is unlikely to go anywhere. Very little to motivate Israel to support.

    Israel continues to hit Hama et al and Hezbollah leadership. Given they are targeting vehicles carrying these leaders indicates that they have some incredible HUMINT going on.

    Otherwise, I expect Israel to continue to pressure Hamas, keep Hezbollah leaders focusing one eye to the sky and Syria being held in check.

    Iran is a growing boil in the region, see below.


    Iran –
    - May 5th - projected end of negotiation window

    ***
    Putin signs law ratifying strategic partnership agreement with Iran

    OBSERVATION - Agreements and treaties with Russia are coming fast and may work to deter any Israeli/US strike options under threat of Russian involvement.

    Iran is fully in charge of the ‘negotiations’ and the US seems to be just fine with that. Dangerous

    Yet the US continues to pump bombs and possibly ADA related materials into Israel as well as keeping bomb supplies up at Diego Garcia. Could the US being playing rope a dope with Iran, giving them enough rope to hang themselves? IDK


    Egypt –

    The Egyptian military announced the opening of the joint Chinese-Egyptian exercise “Eagles of Civilization 2025.” For the drill, China brought to Egypt the J-10 (Chengdu) fighter jet, which is considered a 4.5 generation aircraft.

    OBSERVATION - China has in recent years been pushing to get greater influence in Africa and in particular Egypt, likely due to the control of the Suez Canal.


    Syria -

    During a security operation in the Qatana area of Damascus, security forces seized a warehouse containing large quantities of weapons and ammunition, including anti-tank missiles, intended for smuggling outside Syria (likely into Lebanon and to Hezbollah)


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/21/2025 7:31:43 AM PDT · 429 of 442
    Godzilla to metmom

    There was talk about these deep staters organizing to deter the trump initiative in the pentagon. Seeing it being played out.

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/21/2025 6:03:06 AM PDT · 427 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Relatively calm Resurrection Sunday, but things are taking off again like a rocket.


    Globalism / Great Reset –

    Geneva, Switzerland, 21 April 2025 – Klaus Schwab, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the World Economic Forum, has informed the Board: “Following my recent announcement, and as I enter my 88th year, I have decided to step down from the position of Chair and as a member of the Board of Trustees, with immediate effect.”

    https://www.weforum.org/press/2025/04/world-economic-forum-announces-governance-transition/

    OBSERVATION - Schwab had already announced his intention to step down, at the beginning of the month, but it was understood that the process of doing so would stretch on into 2027. At this stage, it’s unclear what has prompted the sudden change from Schwab.

    This also throws open the discussion of his successor, now having to be accelerated rather than worked out over the course of the next year.

    ***
    Pope Francis died on Easter Monday, April 21, 2025, at the age of 88 at his residence in the Vatican’s Casa Santa Marta.

    “Dearest brothers and sisters, with deep sorrow I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis. At 7:35 this morning, the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the house of the Father. His entire life was dedicated to the service of the Lord and His Church,” Vatican camerlengo Cardinal Kevin Farrell announced.

    OBSERVATION - In poor health, the suddenness came as a surprise following his limited appearance and address on Sunday.
    This and Schwab’s sudden announcement has some people wondering if there is a connection.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
    May Day - May 1st

    Anti-Trump rallies this weekend: produced sparse crowds of mostly older White folks, pre-printed signs, no clever chants. Low-energy protests fizzled out in hours.

    OBSERVATION - An attempt to try to keep what ever enthusiasm generated from the “Hands Off” protests of a couple weeks ago. The left’s effort to mobilize is losing ground now.

    OTOH, the call for violence continues to grow in some corners of the inter webs like Reddit. The failure of these weekends organized events may increase calls and efforts by the more violent elements to step up their actions.


    Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 21, 2025
    - Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

    Threatcon remans the same, only that the US / World is out of the Easter season. Iran situation still looms high.


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    Markets still shaky over tariffs, and likely to become a little more unstable with the news of the Pope’s death and Schwab’s immediate resignation from the WEF.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    USS Nimitz (CVN-68) made its first port call since departing its Indo-Pacific deployment, arriving in Guam on Friday.

    OBSERVATION - Should things get real spicy, the Nimitz would be sent to the middle east with great haste. How far west it goes could indicate prepositioning for a quick reinforcement of CENTCOM.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    Over the weekend, the Supreme Court halted the deportation flights of Tren de Aragua members. It was a 7-2 decision. Only Justices Alito and Thomas dissented.

    Earlier this month, USSC ruled was that the president has the authority to invoke the Alien Enemies Act to deport these illegal alien terrorists—members of Tren de Aragua.

    For this group in Texas that was about to be shipped out, they claim no options to challenge was afforded to them. The American Civil Liberties Union raced to block these deportations.

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2025/04/21/is-this-why-the-supreme-court-halted-the-tren-de-aragua-deportation-flights-n2655828

    OBSERVATION - Justice Alito lit a fire under this decision and well as the supporting justices. In essence, the new pro-illegal wing of the USSC overstepped its jurisdiction, as the case was about to undergo review by the Circuit Court of Appeal and allowed the ACLU to skip over it without allowing any counter argument from the Trump administration. As noted, the USSC had already given its OK for the law to be used, now suddenly has second thoughts. This temporary order has not cleared matters up, but have only muddied the waters even further. The USSC should have stayed in its lane and allowed the appeals court to do its business before jumping in like this.

    ***
    The deep state is in a state of chaos after Pete Hegseth fired three Department of Defense aides who were allegedly involved in the leaking of classified government information earlier this year, along with the departure of Hegseth’s chief of staff from his role following an extended period of turmoil within the agency.

    This also has another unconfirmed claim that Hegseth passed on operational information in another Signal chat room.

    OBSERVATION - It was known that the pentagon embedded deep state minions were going to go all out to disrupt and stop Hegseth / Trump from changing the power structure there.


    Illegal Immigration –

    News from Canada that they are becoming inundated by illegals leaving the US and headed for Canada.


    China -

    Some economic analysts are suggesting that China is in a deflationary downward spiral that could cause its economy to crash should the current tariff levels from Trump are maintained for any significant period of time.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Russia declared a ceasefire for Easter that was only marginally effective as both sides continued fighting, though at apparently lower level in intensity. Russia’s MoD says the “truce” is officially over and combat operations have resumed.

    Overnight, Russia once again attacked with Shaheds. Out of 96 drones, 42 were shot down and another 47 were lost in location without negative consequences.

    Russian losses per 21/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. A decrease in losses during the ‘truce’.

    +670 men
    +2 tanks
    +2 AFVs
    +10 artillery

    Kursk -

    Ukraine forces are losing more terrain and may soon be pushed back across the border back into Ukraine.

    Summary —

    Very likely that Russia used the ‘truce’ to reposition forces for impending offensive actions. In truth: in some parts of the front, it never stopped. The so-called “Easter truce” was a PR-stunt than anything else.

    Fighting over the past couple days were moderate with casualties reported for Russia less than half the current daily trend.

    A number of potential new offensive axises have been bantered around besides Sumy and Zaporizhzhia. Most recent is Kharkiv, which could be a supporting attack for Sumy.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Airstrikes continue to keep the pressure on in Gaza as rumors indicate a much larger ground effort is in the offing.

    - Unusual number of C17 flights from the US continue to arrive at Nevatim Airbase.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Israel announced the cancellation of entry visas for 27 parliament members and left-wing activists from France, just two days before their scheduled visit to Israel and territories of the Palestinian Authority, according to a French news agency.

    The Interior Ministry confirmed that “it was decided to deny their entry under Section 40 of the Entry Law (Activities against the State), after the reason for their visit became clear.” Israeli officials added that the delegation’s entry was initially approved, but once it became apparent that they intended to cause provocation in Judea and Samaria, Interior Minister Moshe Arbel ordered the cancellation of the approval.

    https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/

    ***
    Israel is considering re-arresting terrorists freed in past hostage deals, following Hamxs’ refusal to advance a new agreement.

    ***
    Something unusual is going on once again, on Easter Sunday a total of 8 C-17A Globemaster IIIs with the U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command (AMC) were tracked flying between Ramstein Air Base in Germany and Nevatim Airbase in Southern Israel, all of which were linked with the transfer of air-defense systems and originated from either Fort Bliss or Fort Cavazos, Texas. Since April 10th, 25 C-17s have landed at Nevatim, with most attached to this same air-defense mission.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    An airstrike by Israeli warplanes targeted the Al-Mawasi area in Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip.

    ***
    Some analysts are indicating that Hamas is hiding in the refugee tent cities and not very willing to come out and confront the IDF. Further indicators are that Hama’s recruitment efforts have brought in a sizable number of young men/children with virtually no experience or training, making it difficult to coordinate ground actions against IDF.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    IDF spokesman:

    IDF aircraft struck launchers and Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon’s Nabatiya area. The IDF also eliminated Hezbollah’s Head of Engineering in the Al-Adaysa compound. The military called these actions a clear violation of Israeli-Lebanese understandings and a threat to Israeli security.

    Hezbollah announces the killing of leader Hussein Nasr in an Israeli raid in southern Lebanon.

    ***
    Lebanese army reports it preempted a Hezbollah rocket attack on Israel by seizing a Hezbollah position and capturing dozens of rockets and launchers.

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    Israeli Chief of Staff: We control “key points” in Syria. Our forces have taken control of vital areas because “Syria has disintegrated.” We do not know how things will develop in Syria

    ——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

    A explosion occurred inside Nour Shams camp in Tulkarm, as the Israeli army operation continues.

    Israeli security forces operation in the town of Beit Ummar, north of Hebron and in the town of Idhna, west of Hebron

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    US airstrikes continue against Houthi targets

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Lack of progress on hostage releases is triggering Israel to take the ground operation to the next level. Currently controlling 30-40% of Gaza, Israel is likely to move to take control of all of Rafah while expanding areas in the north.

    Hezbollah talking tough over the weekend, but is still in a very poor position to do much about Israel. The question is just how serious the Lebanese govt and army are about disarming and disbanding hezbollah.

    Iran still on count down IMHO. Some rumor that the US is ‘acting’ out as being willing to negotiate so as not to be seen as the aggressor when they drop the hammer. Israel maintains the right to strike Iran’s nuclear program indecently from the US. Combined, some think this is a psyops ploy against Iran.


    Iran –
    - May 5th - projected end of negotiation window

    ***

    Saturday’s 4 hour ‘negotiation’ session was once again a nothing burger. Technical working groups for both sides are to work out details on the little that has been agreed to. Iran continues to control the agenda and topics, essentially leading US negotiators around by the nose IMHO. The current framework resembles 0bama’s failed plan than it does Trump’s pronouncements.

    Iran is succeeding in its goals to delay, obfuscate and spin the momentum in its favor. Unless Trump has something else up his sleeve, and he may with the unusual number of cargo flights into Israel, this is potentially a massive foreign policy failure.


    Turkey –

    The head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT), İbrahim Kalın, convened with senior Hamas members on Saturday to discuss aid routes into Gaza, according to JNS.

    The agency released a statement condemning Israel following the meeting, accusing it of carrying out “genocidal activities.”

    The meeting featured Muhammad Darwish, chairman of the Hamas Shura Council, though the location was not disclosed. According to MİT, the discussion centered on enabling humanitarian assistance to reach Gaza and assessing “efforts to halt Israel’s genocidal activities” while pushing for a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire.”

    “The latest situation in the efforts to halt Israel’s genocidal activities in Gaza and to reach a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire was evaluated,” the agency said, reiterating Ankara’s full support for Hamas’s stance against Israel.

    “Turkey will always stand by the people of Gaza, who have shown great determination and patience to protect their lands, despite Israeli attacks targeting civilians and hunger policies implemented to displace the people,” the statement added.

    Kalın’s engagement with Hamas comes amid increasingly hostile rhetoric from Turkish leadership, particularly from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has increased his verbal attacks on Israel since the start of the war in Gaza on October 7, 2023.

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/407122

    OBSERVATION - Brought up numerous times is why is a NATO ally meeting and pledging support to a terror group? Disturbing is the implication that Turkey may take over supplying weapons and other material to Hamas.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/19/2025 6:23:15 AM PDT · 421 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    I do not intend to post tomorrow unless something catastrophic happens.

    Sunday - Resurrection Sunday. Jesus Christ is risen, He is risen indeed.

    Today is the original Patriot Day which marks the multiple anniversary of the battles of Lexington and Concord, known as “The Shot Heard ‘Round the World”, on April 19, 1775.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
    May Day - May 1st

    Weekend is here. A number of rallies / protests across the country but potential for violence and vandalism is low. As always, in liberal strongholds, keep situationally alert.

    ***
    (FO) New York Times columnist David Brooks called for mass mobilization protests as a way to stop what he describes as President Trump’s march to authoritarianism.

    “It’s time for a comprehensive national civic uprising. It’s time for Americans in universities, law, business, nonprofits and the scientific community, and civil servants and beyond to form one coordinated mass movement. Trump is about power. The only way he’s going to be stopped is if he’s confronted by some movement that possesses rival power,” Brooks writes.

    OBSERVATION - The drumbeat by leftists and anti-Trumpers continues with the open calls for mass ‘movements’ with ‘rival power’.

    ***
    In a stunning move that has the DC establishment scrambling, Director of National Intelligence Gabbard just declassified what might be the most disturbing government document of the Biden era: their deceptively-named “Strategic Implementation Plan for Countering Domestic Terrorism.”

    Let’s cut through the bureaucratic noise and call this what it really is: a systematic blueprint for targeting and silencing conservative Americans. While Biden was preaching “unity” from his teleprompter, his administration was quietly crafting plans to turn Big Tech into their personal censorship machine.

    The scheme reads like a progressive wish list: monitoring “suspicious” online speech (translation: conservative viewpoints), expanding federal watchlists to include Americans with the “wrong” political beliefs, and – you guessed it – finding new ways to chip away at Second Amendment rights.

    This wasn’t just government overreach, it was a calculated assault on the fundamental rights that make America exceptional. While the left was hyperventilating about “threats to democracy,” they were building the infrastructure for genuine governmental tyranny.

    https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/04/18/tulsi-exposes-a-terrifying-biden-era-program-that-was-meant-to-be-secret-n4939013

    OBSERVATION - This is a ‘conspiracy theory’ that was well known by the efforts of the regime to get in enacted. By eating away at the edges and building upon the successes of govt suppression from the wuhan shut down, it would drain the will to resist thru a thousand paper cuts.


    Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
    - Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended

    Good Friday - Resurrection Sunday are upon us, the holiest days in Christendom and likely target period for islamic terror.

    ***
    FBI Director Kash Patel just announced they have arrested the terrorist who firebombed a Kansas City, MO Tesla showroom
    He’s facing 20 YEARS, and this is the SECOND anti-Tesla terrorist caught this week.
    FBI apprehended Owen McIntire, a college student in Boston. He threw a Molotov cocktail at the dealership while home for spring break.


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    Rough week on the Dow.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    Senate and House Republicans, and the White House are drafting plans for a new top tax bracket of 40% on individuals earning more than $1 million per year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “everything is on the table” to get tax cuts through the congress.

    OBSERVATION - Communism-lite, RINOS gotta keep RINOING

    ***
    Considerable judicial activity overnight

    Federal appeals court has BLOCKED Judge Boasberg’s plan to hold Trump officials in criminal contempt

    OBSERVATION - This was expected. Boasberg was found to not have jurisdiction over the case and all associated rulings etc were powerless - even those that occurred prior to the USSC ruling.

    ***
    In a rare late-night decision, the U.S. Supreme Court tonight by a vote of 7-2 has ordered the Trump Administration to halt the deportation of any further foreign nationals under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. This follows a rush earlier today by the lawyers of several Venezuelan illegal immigrants to the Supreme Court, seeking an emergency order to prevent what was believed to be another round of imminent deportations to the notorious CECOT maximum-security mega-prison in El Salvador.

    OBSERVATION - This is a setback, seems that a sticking point was there concern over due process / warning to permit these illegal thugs a chance to appeal the deportation orders. The actual composition of those ‘appeals’ process is not clear at the moment. Same USSC that ruled earlier that Trump was permitted to use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 for deportations. USSC better get its act together, they just made the Judicial - Executive constitutional crisis worse with this decision.

    ***
    A federal appeals court rejected on Friday a request by President Donald Trump’s administration to allow it to move forward with stripping temporary legal protections for about 350,000 Venezuelan migrants, exposing them to imminent deportation.

    The San Francisco-based 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals declined to pause a lower-court judge’s March 31 order halting Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s decision to terminate the temporary protected status that was granted to Venezuelans.

    OBSERVATION - “Temporary” means temporary and the court is trying to force it into being permanent.


    Illegal Immigration –

    A lot of the illegal aliens issues are focused on the courts. However, the action on the border continues to be down by 90+% over biden era.


    Russia -

    (ISW) Putin, has repeatedly stated that he is unwilling to accept any agreement that does not concede to all of Russia’s territorial and political demands for Ukraine.

    Russian officials’ continued insistence on these demands has also set conditions for Russian society to expect these demands to be fulfilled in any conclusion of the war in Ukraine, and Kremlin mouthpieces stating explicitly that these demands must be met even in a peace deal favorable to Russia is a reflection of this long-term rhetorical line. Kremlin maintains its long-standing goals in Ukraine, and Russian officials continue to indicate and explicitly state that they are unwilling to compromise on these goals.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    At night, Russia launched a missile and drone attack.

    Shot down:
    0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
    0/2 Onyx anti-ship missiles
    0/3 Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles
    33/87 Shahed drones

    Another 36 drones were lost in location without inflicting negative consequences

    . Russian losses per 19/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

    +1180 men
    +14 tanks
    +9 AFVs
    +70 artillery
    +1 MLRS
    +3 AD systems

    Sumy -

    Partial blackout in Sumy region after Russian attack at the power infrastructure

    Summary —

    Russia gaining terrain in some areas of the front but at this time nothing that would indicate a focus of an “offensive”. Some analysts have indicated that Ukraine’s primary defenses along the front have shifted to FPV drones and less on soldiers on the front. The analysts suggests that Russian advances tend to be the result of poor drone tactics or overwhelming Russian assault forces.

    Any short term hopes for a ceasefire are dead.


    Moldova/Transnistria -

    Russia wants to replace Moldova’s leadership with pro-Kremlin puppets and use the country against Ukraine, warns President Maia Sandu. She emphasized that Ukraine remains Moldova’s shield — and Chișinău has a moral duty to stay out of Putin’s war.

    OBSERVATION - A Russia objective from the war was to establish a “land bridge” across S Ukraine and into Moldova, essentially to take over that country as well. The sudden loss of the Russian amphibious ships and supporting combat vessels, combined with the stalling of the initial assaults and Russia being forced back across the Dniper River and away from Odessa put a stop to this plan. Russian held Transnistria continues to be a thorn in the side for both Moldova and Ukraine.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Second round of Iranian nuclear talks today

    - Israel firm on preventing Iran from getting the bomb, even if it has to go it alone.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Israel has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months despite President Donald Trump telling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US was, for now, unwilling to support such a move, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
    Israeli officials have vowed to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and Netanyahu has insisted that any negotiation with Iran must lead to the complete dismantling of its nuclear program.

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-850661

    Israeli Defense Minister: We will do “whatever it takes” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons

    Israeli official: Reports of plans to attack Iran without US participation are untrue.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    Scattered air strikes across the territory.
    IDF moved deeper into Rafah, striking Hamas facilities

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem gave a speech on Friday in which he made clear that the terrorist organization will not disarm.

    “Do you expect us to become defenseless and allow Israel to enter all of Lebanon? That will not happen. If anyone thinks Israel will achieve its goal, they are deceiving themselves. The resistance will remain,” Qassem declared, claiming that Hezbollah’s weapons are necessary because Lebanon itself “is unable to defend itself.”

    Qassem further stated that he would be willing to discuss the issue of the organization’s weapons only after a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.

    “After Israel fulfills its obligations, Lebanon will begin discussing the other conditions of 1701. There are basic rules for any dialogue. The first is protecting Lebanon’s sovereignty, liberating its land, and stopping all forms of aggression against it. The second is to invest the strength of the resistance and its weapons in any defensive strategy. When we are called for dialogue, we will be ready, but it will not be under the pressure of Israel and its aggression.”

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/407045

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    US-led coalition aircraft launch several raids on the capital, Sana’a.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    In Gaza, Israel maintains full initiative on fighting and is not hampered as it has in the past. Technique of continuing to reduce Hamas controlled territory, eliminating leaders and munitions is making Hamas more desperate and inclined to release greater numbers of hostages for some sort of ceasefire.

    In Lebanon, Hezbollah is talking big, like it is the govt or something. For the large part it still has significant control over the govt. In the lasts bleat above, Hezbollah is trying to reform its image as the defender of Lebanon - apart from the govt and military. This is placing them on a collision course with the govt who recently pledged to disarm and disband Hezbollah following US and European pressure to live up to the current cease fire agreement. Israel, for most of its part, is satisfied with maintaining the smaller drone strikes targeting Hezbollah leadership and arms/munitions transport in vehicles. Israel’s success is documented by the half hidden obituaries of Hezbollah leaders /fighters killed by these strikes.

    Syria remains stable, but US withdrawal from northeastern Syria may create issues for Israel at a later date.

    Iran is still on the front burner. We’ll see what today brings. Will it be more kissy kissy or real substantive movement.


    Iran –
    - May 5th - projected end of negotiation window

    ***
    Today’s second round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran have now begun at the Omani Embassy in Rome.

    OBSERVATION - I have low expectations for this meeting. Iran showed up 30 minutes late - a political maneuver to show ‘power’ over the talks and the agenda is essentially their agenda.

    ***
    According to Reuters, a senior Iranian official has said that Iran’s leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has a number of red lines that he has “mandated” to the Iranian negotiating team that must be adhered to.
    Iran’s leader will not allow the dismantling of centrifuges for enriching uranium, any reductions in their stockpiles of enriched uranium below that of the deal from 2015, or any total halts in the enrichment process. Additionally, the Ayatollah has said that they will not negotiate at all on their ballistic missile program, a capability that they ignominiously claim is divorced from the nuclear discussion.

    ***
    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi claimed on Saturday during talks with the US that Israel was the main roadblock to achieving a non-nuclear Middle East, according to Israeli media reports.
    “Iran rejects weapons of mass destruction. The only obstacle to achieving a Middle East free of nuclear weapons is Israel,” Aragchi said.

    ***
    Iran proposed a three-stage nuclear deal proposal that caps Iranian uranium enrichment but would leave the necessary infrastructure in place to enable Iran to rapidly rebuild its nuclear program if the deal collapsed

    OVERALL OBSERVATION - Seems like Iran believes that the threat of military action is done and that they can resume the play at negotiation game once again. This effort recognizes that Iran is militarily very weak against any kind of an attack and they need time to restore and develop new defenses.

    What is in Trump’s mind as he sees this as well as his historical dealings with them under 45? I don’t know. My gut feeling is that he is far more inclined to bring Iran’s program down by bombs if necessary, but part of his nature is the ‘negotiations ‘ a la the Art of the Deal. Iran needs to be careful not to tip this balance in their efforts to delay the denuclearization efforts. If they do or say something that shows a dishonest effort, Trump may suddenly push the button. He’s got most of the key military preparations done in that event.

    We will have to see what pans out from today’s talks.


    Syria -

    (ISW)The United States will withdraw from three bases in northeastern Syria, including two positions designed to support counter-ISIS operations along the Euphrates River in Deir ez Zor Province. The US troop presence in Syria will drop from 2,000 to 1,400 under the current drawdown plan.

    ***
    (ISW) United States reportedly brokered a ceasefire agreement between Turkey and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) (predominantly Kurdish elements) on April 17.


    Misc of Note –

    Many are upset that the DoJ / FBI appear to be delaying arrests of characters involved in the political assault on Trump from the past 4 years. Calls for ‘where are the arrests’ are getting pretty loud. In my view, I’m willing to give them some more time. REMEMBER THESE KEY THINGS -

    1 They have to identify and clean out the trash who participated in the anti-Trump weaponization of their departments.

    2 It takes time to put together an operational team to not only focus on the first order Trump policy efforts - like DOGE and deportations - but to then delve internally to id and prosecute those who acted in an illegal manner.

    3 Bringing charges takes time, grand juries need to be empaneled and prosectors loyal to the country and Trump need to investigate and develop the cases / charges to bring to grand juries.

    We are just 4 months into this term. 1 and 2 above are well underway, though 2 seems to be lagging a bit. I’m willing to cut a little more slack to let them get the job done and done correctly. Going in half a$$ed will not work. But this cannot wait too long or the momentum will be lost.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/18/2025 2:02:40 PM PDT · 420 of 442
    Godzilla to Chani

    I wouldn’t put much into it. It is a transliteration from Hebrew

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/18/2025 6:16:01 AM PDT · 415 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Peaceful Good Friday to everyone. I do not intend to post this Sunday - Resurrection Sunday for good reasons. Jesus Christ is risen, He is risen indeed.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
    May Day - May 1st

    Weekend is fast approaching. No significant and potentially violent protests/rallies on the agenda. As always, in liberal strongholds, keep situationally alert.

    ***
    (FO) During a mass call last night, Indivisible and “Hands Off!” protest organizers called for volunteers to host 150+ May Day protest and direct action events across the country on Thursday, 01 May, to resist the Trump administration’s deportation efforts, although some May Day action may spill over into the weekend. One organizer specifically called on volunteers to physically block deportation flights and take other high-risk acts of civil disobedience.

    Organizers are trying to advance their resistance movement from sustained but toothless protests to direct action campaigns, which represents the move from Symbolic Resistance to Selective Resistance. The aim is to normalize direct action, where activists and militants get directly involved in stopping certain political policies, such as deportation, as opposed to just protesting against them. This call is almost certainly an attempt to ‘test the waters’ so that organizers can gauge public support for these more disruptive types of resistance such occupations and physical acts of resistance. These organizers are unlikely to progress unless they find public support for their actions.

    OBSERVATION - The folks at Forward Observer note the increased frenzy over the deportation of Garcia and others generated by the MSM as a potential ignitor for more definitive acts of violence. This is the first step in developing motivation for violent actions.


    Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
    - Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended

    Good Friday - Resurrection Sunday are upon us, the holiest days in Christendom and likely target period for islamic terror.

    FREMONT COUNTY, Colo. (KKTV) - The U.S. Attorney’s office said two Mexican nationals were charged on Wednesday after around 180,000 rounds of ammunition were found in their vehicle.
    On March 26, Fremont County deputies conducted a traffic stop of a vehicle in Canon City, according to officials.
    Officials said deputies searched the vehicle, finding around 150 boxes of .308 ammunition and about 30 boxes of 7.62 ammunition. They said each box was labeled as containing 1,000 rounds.
    41-year-old Caesar Ramon Martinez Solis and 24-year-old Humberto Ivan Amador Gavira of Mexico were both charged with unlawful possession of ammunition by an alien admitted under a nonimmigrant visa, officials said.

    https://www.kktv.com/2025/04/17/mexican-nationals-charged-after-found-with-around-180000-rounds-ammo/

    OBSERVATION - Parking this here for now. Most likely intended for mexican gang(s), indicating an expansion of terroristic criminal activity in the country.


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    Rough week on the Dow.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    Following the arrival Tuesday of 2 B-1B “Lancer” Strategic Heavy Bombers with the U.S. Air Force’s 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, at Misawa Air Base in Northern Japan; an additional 2 B-1Bs arrived at Misawa earlier tonight after crossing the Pacific, as part of the ongoing “Bomber Task Force” deployment to Japan with Global Strike Command (AFGSC).

    OBSERVATION - First time in a long time ten strategic bombers have been forward deployed - 6 B2s and now 4 B1s. This places the B1s a bit closer to Iran and could speed response time. Their placement also serves as a warning to China not to get too froggy either.

    ***
    Osint sources report that 3 additional American cargo planes landed at the Nevatim Air Force base in the past 24 hours. This comes after it was reported that in the two days preceding this one, 7 planes landed at Nevatim.

    In total, 10 heavy American transport planes landed at the base in three days.

    It is estimated that the planes are carrying an air train of munitions and heavy bombs for the Israeli Air Force, among other things as part of the preparations underway for an attack on Iran, as revealed yesterday in the New York Times - preparations that are continuing, even as negotiations between Iran and the US continue.


    INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

    U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff are meeting now with French President Emmanuel Macron and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot in Paris at the Elysee presidential palace. Macron is slated to make the case for more Euro-American alignment on the approach to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.

    ***
    Rubio signals possible U.S. withdrawal from Ukraine ceasefire talks:

    “If our efforts to end the war in Ukraine fail within the next few days, we will inform President Trump that negotiations are no longer a viable option.”

    “If both sides are serious about peace, we’re ready to help, otherwise, we’ll move on.”

    https://x.com/osint613/status/1913149451675279716?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA


    Illegal Immigration –

    The Trump administration had petitioned the Supreme Court for stays in three different challenges on Donald Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship. The easiest action to take would have been to ignore the requests and let the cases play out, likely well into the next Supreme Court term.

    Instead, the court decided to consolidate the cases and grant cert on the merits

    https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2025/04/17/hmmm-scotus-agrees-to-hear-challenge-on-birthright-citizenship-n3801898#google_vignette

    OBSERVATION - A lot of looking at tea leaves on this one.


    China -

    The U.S. announced new port fees on Chinese-built and operated vessels Thursday, aiming to strengthen its own shipbuilding industry and reduce China’s control over the sector.


    Japan –

    Arrival of 4 B1s to Misawa Air Base in Northern Japan


    Russia -

    Ceasefire in Ukraine “at this stage” is unrealistic, says Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Nebenzya


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.

    RUMINT –
    Some claims that the Russia Spring offensive has started.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Overnight, Russia launched a combined missile and drone attack.

    Shot down:
    0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
    3/5 Iskander-K cruise missiles
    23/37 Shahed drones

    Another 10 Shahed drones were lost in location and did not reach their intended target.

    Russia targeted Kharkiv and Dnipro, hitting civilian areas. In Kharkiv alone, 1 person was killed and 60 wounded, including 2 children. Ballistic missile strikes in Kharkiv with 3 Iskander missiles with cluster warheads destroyed dozens of residential buildings.

    Russian losses per 18/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.

    +1530 men
    +8 tanks
    +40 AFVs
    +88 artillery
    +1 MLRS
    +1 AD system

    Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation over Valyntynivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

    Kursk -

    In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 21 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

    Summary —

    Peace talks are just about at the stage where one needs to stick a fork in them. putin is bound and determined to obtain his Ukraine goals via military means and is daring the rest of the world to stop him.

    Analysis suggests that he may only have about another years worth of military assets available with which to wage war and national economy is poised to crash hard from sanctions and war effort diversions. Now similar projections have been going on for a while now, and Russia still manages to keep ticking, so it is not a given, but is a likely inflection point.

    Increasing commentary that Russia has initiated its Spring/Summer offensive. This has been highlighted by the recent battalion level mechanized attack in the Zaporizhzhia sector noted yesterday. Previously in the week, a mechanized company assault was turned back. Zaporizhzhia is one of the sectors Ukraine intelligence has been claiming Russian efforts were going to be shifted to. Nether mechanized attack of late had any recognizable tactical objective and both suffered heavy losses. If the offensive has kicked off, we should begin to see what the new objectives may be and what strength Russia has been able to scrape together for such forces.

    Ukraine air defenses continue to struggle against the new tactics being used by Russians. It is becoming clear that Russia is also reverting to a terror campaign with these strikes - hitting apartments, schools and other civilian targets.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - More on leaked Israeli plans for an attack on Iran

    - Hamas rejects latest hostage / ceasefire proposal.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Israeli minister Ron Dermer and Mossad director Barnea traveled to Paris for a meeting with White House Envoy Steve Witkoff on Friday ahead of the nuclear talks with Iran in Rome tomorrow.

    ***
    Hamxs has rejected Israel’s proposal to release 10 hostages in exchange for a 45-day ceasefire.
    Their statement: “We will not accept partial deals that serve Netanyahu’s political agenda.”

    ***
    Political intrigue has gotten clearer over the reported pause in action towards a joint Israeli / US attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. A component of the plan was leaked by Israel sources involved a commando raid on the main enrichment facility to ensure destruction of Iran’s capabilities to enrich uranium.

    Trump in a statement said he wanted to move a little slower on the operation and that it was still on the table.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    The Israel Air Force (IAF) struck some 40 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip in the past day, the military said on Friday.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Southern Lebanon: Israeli attack targeted a Hezbollah car on Ghazieh highway near Maghdosha entrance. Likely a Hezbollah leader.

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    Quneitra: The Israeli army carried out patrols in the Quneitra countryside, where a convoy penetrated the village of Kodna in the southern countryside, then continued to the village of Brega and conducted a search campaign in the youth housing buildings before withdrawing to the Kodna forest road. It also penetrated the road between the villages of Hader and Sahita, adjacent to the dispersal line.

    ***
    Russian President Vladimir Putin has continued to indicate that he seeks to develop stronger diplomatic and political relations with the Syrian transitional government. Putin discussed Russian interests in Syria with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani in Moscow on April 17. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Russia might try to use economic incentives to secure basing rights in Syria.

    Syrian media reported that Russian forces remain present at three military bases in Syria: Hmeimim airbase in Latakia, the naval base at Tartus, and Russia’s former helicopter base in Qamishli, Hasakah Province.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    The US military announces: We have destroyed the Houthi fuel port in Ras Issa. Ras Isa fuel port is the main fuel port of the Iran-backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen

    ***
    A ballistic missile launched at Israel by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen was successfully intercepted by air defenses, the military says. There are no immediate reports of injuries or damage in the attack.

    ***
    Hamas: We strongly condemn the World Food Programme’s decision to suspend food shipments to areas targeted by airstrikes in Yemen, which increases the suffering of the Yemeni people.

    ***
    US State Department:
    We can confirm that the Chinese satellite technology company Chang Guang is directly supporting the Houthis

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    Iranian Foreign Ministry: We condemn the US airstrikes on Ras Isa Port in Hodeidah, Yemen, which have claimed the lives of dozens of Yemenis. These US attacks on Yemen are a war crime and a clear violation of the UN Charter and international law, and come within the framework of comprehensive US support for genocide.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Gaza likely to see heavier action by Israel in the light of the rejection by Hamas of its hostage / cease fire proposal.

    Lebanon continues to see Israeli drone strikes hitting vehicles believed to be carrying Hezbollah leaders and elements.

    Syria remains relatively calm for the moment.

    Houthis suffered a huge economic loss in the Ras Isa Port facilities. Oil and other features taken completely out. This sucks a huge amount of the income the Houthis rely upon for their war efforts as well as increased pressure from civilians against them. I think the air strike may also have a secondary purpose of warning Iran of what can happen to their Kharg Island facility if they don’t negotiate a nuclear deal in good faith.

    Iran may have seen the count down watch paused for now. However, the thumb is poised to resume should the negotiations route fail.


    Iran –
    - May 5th - projected end of negotiation window

    Araqchi: I will head to Rome on Saturday to begin the second round of non-binding negotiations with the United States.

    ***
    Today Sec Rubio said any nuclear deal with Iran has to be something “that actually prevents Iran from having a nuclear weapon now...but in the future as well, not just for 10 years with some sort of sunset provision or the like.” President Trump said something similar yesterday complaining about the JCPOA’s short duration.

    Separately Rubio says E3 have a decision to make on invoking the snapback sanctions mechanism. He says we should all anticipate based on the public comments yesterday that they are about to get a report from the IAEA that says not just is Iran out of compliance [with the JCPOA] but Iran is dangerously close to a weapon, closer than it has ever been. If Iran is out of compliance, they have to reimpose sanctions [using snapback].”

    OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Mixed signals from DC only encourage Iran, not deter it. Tomorrow’s second round of ‘discussions’ between the US and Iran could be pivotal. I think Trump wants to see just how serious Iran is about negotiating a treaty in order to save its hide. If there is no movement, Trump will have to fish or cut bait. He’s talked himself into a corner regarding the military option. Witkoff’s stumble last week weakened Trump’s position as the top dog - with Iran smelling weakness in his administration.

    One good thing that may help the US is the potential for “snap back” actions by France, Germany and Great Britain for Iranian violations of previous nuclear agreements. Such resumption of severe sanctions would severely hurt Iran economically and could cause civil unrest as the civilians, the one hurt by such actions, strike out against the Mullahs and their inner circles who are managing to do quite well for themselves.

    With all that, it is evident that preparations for an attack are moving forward. C17s delivering critical cargo to Israel, moving B1s closer to the middle east, etc. This cannot be ignored or prolonged.


    Syria -

    Observers note that about half of the US forces stationed in Syria have pulled back into Kurdish Iraq.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/17/2025 6:17:42 AM PDT · 412 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Globalism / Great Reset –

    (LifeSiteNews) — Representatives of WHO member states have agreed on a draft of the “pandemic accord” that is scheduled to be voted on next month.
    “The nations of the world made history in Geneva today,” Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the WHO, said after the member states agreed on the draft of the pandemic treaty on Wednesday.

    The WHO claims that the “proposal affirms the sovereignty of countries to address public health matters within their borders, and provides that nothing in the draft agreement shall be interpreted as providing WHO any authority to direct, order, alter or prescribe national laws or policies, or mandate States to take specific actions, such as ban or accept travellers, impose vaccination mandates or therapeutic or diagnostic measures or implement lockdowns.”

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/who-member-states-agree-on-draft-of-pandemic-treaty-that-could-be-adopted-in-may/?utm_source=digest-freedom-2025-04-16&utm_medium=email

    OBSERVATION - Back like a bad check. They are taking measures to distance this agreement from previous iterations that sought to place WHO control over the sovereignty of aligned nations. You can bet your bottom dollar that buried within this document are the provisions that can be modified to add these controls at a later date.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

    Weekend fast approaching. No significant and potentially violent protests/rallies on the agenda. As always, in liberal strongholds, keep situationally alert.


    Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
    - Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended

    Tesla update. No reported attacks on Tesla dealerships, and vandalism to individually owned vehicles seems to be down, judging by the drop in reporting. This drop could also be indicative of a lack of current interest.

    I suspect that the Tesla vandalism is a fad that is decaying due to the fact that law enforcement and DAs are not treating violators in a catch and release fashion. They have been relatively quick to identify perps, arrest and hit them with felony charges. Perps once identified publicly, have lost their jobs too. Hitting them legally and financially. This seems to have created a deterrent to others contemplating similar violence / vandalism.


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    Stocks and bonds are expected to continue a roller coaster ride this week.

    ***

    US stocks took another tumble Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are ‘highly likely’ to cause more inflation.

    ‘The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated,’ Powell said at an event in Chicago. ‘The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.

    ‘Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation. The inflationary effects could also be more persistent,’ he added.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14620311/fed-chair-warning-wall-street-meltdown-tariff-retirement-savings.html

    OBSERVATION - Powell is no friend of the Trump administration or his policies. Note, Dow futures are higher overnight.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    US planning for the eventual withdrawal from Syria within the next two months. Moving forces into Kurdish Iraq.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    U.S. District Judge James Boasberg has issued a scathing 46-page ruling finding members of President Trump’s administration in criminal contempt—despite the Supreme Court vacating the very orders Boasberg claims were defied.

    OBSERVATION - Growing constitutional crisis continues. A vacated order from the USSC stating Boasberg has no jurisdiction - yet HE wants to defy the USSC. IMHO Boasberg can go pound sand.

    ***
    Politico reported this afternoon that a third top official in the Defense Department was put on administrative leave Wednesday and escorted out of the building.

    The man in question is Colin Carroll, chief of staff to Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg.

    As Politico notes, Carroll is a Marine Corps Reserve officer who has worked at Anduril, a defense contractor that specializes in autonomous systems.

    As TGP notes, Caldwell was also part of the Mike Waltz Houthi Signal chat group.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/breaking-another-top-pentagon-official-suspended-as-internal/

    OBSERVATION - A lot of focus in bearing down on Carroll, in part for his participation in the Houthi call, but also for discoveries of his opposition to Trump agenda items. Report indicate that lie detector testing has been an integral part of this investigation. If you’ve never been thru one, like I have, they can make water boarding look tame.


    Illegal Immigration –

    The legal squabble surrounding deported MS-13 terrorist Kilmar Abrego Garcia continues to swirl as documentation of his gang affiliation, human trafficking and serial spouse abuse comes to the forefront.


    China -

    The Communist Chinese have accomplished what many people believed was only a matter of time. Beijing has nearly destroyed the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong as the city’s Democratic Party, the largest opposition party, is disbanding.

    Sheer brutality and the use of modern instruments of oppression accomplished what many activists in Hong Kong believed couldn’t be done. Perhaps they were naive in thinking that Beijing wanted a “two systems, one China” policy. Maybe they were crazy to think that Beijing meant to keep its promise to maintain Hong Kong’s autonomy for 50 years after Beijing regained control of the city in 1997.

    Beijing was always playing the long game. China is an ancient country that is used to thinking in terms of centuries, not decades. It has a plan to reintegrate Hong Kong into the Chinese state, and nothing would happen that interfered with that plan. Using intimidation and draconian “security” laws, Beijing has successfully stymied the movement to maintain Hong Kong’s position as a quasi-independent city and will now complete the process of making Hong Kong just another city in China after the Democratic Party disbands.

    It’s difficult to remember that when the British handed over Hong Kong to Beijing, there was hope that the Communists would keep their word and allow Hong Kong to maintain its civil liberties. For a while, Beijing kept its promise. But the noose gradually tightened, choking off any hope for freedom.

    “We have not achieved what we set out to do,” Fred Li, a founding member of the party, said in an interview. “Without money or resources, we can’t even survive ourselves.”

    https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2025/04/16/the-communist-chinese-have-won-the-largest-opposition-party-in-hong-kong-is-disbanding-n4938957

    OBSERVATION - Tracked this over the course of years. The final straw can be linked to the Wuhan crackdown measures that were severely put in place on Hong Kong and permitted the final choking off of the freedom and independence movement.

    ***
    China ordered its airlines to refuse to take delivery of all Boeing aircraft and their replacement parts on Tuesday in response to the 145% tariffs. The government is looking to assist its companies with their losses.

    ***
    The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) has announced additional sanctions against a number entities and vessels based in China, Hong Kong, Panama, and the Marshall Islands for “facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China as part of Iran’s ‘shadow fleet.’”

    Most notably, the latest list of targeted entities includes a Chinese “teapot” oil refinery, Shandong Shengxing Chemical Co., Ltd., for purchasing over $1 billion worth of Iranian crude oil.

    OBSERVATION - These “shadow’ fleets have been the life blood for Iran and Russia to work around sanctions.

    ***
    There are rumors afloat that there are secret talks between China and the US to come to some kind of agreement over the current trade dispute. This centers around the replacement of China’s current negotiator / diplomat with another with the thought that ‘new blood’ the stalemate can be broken. Skeptical but monitoring.


    North/South Korea –

    The U.S. and Korea performed a show of force against the North Koreans and Chinese with a pair of fighter-escorted B-1B bombers flying over the peninsula on former North Korean leader Kim Il-sung’s birthday.


    Japan –

    Trump on Wednesday inserted himself directly into trade talks with Japanese officials, a sign of the high stakes for the United States after its tariffs rattled the economy and caused the administration to assure the public that it would quickly reach deals.

    The Republican president attended the meeting alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, top economic advisers with a central role in his trade and tariff policies.

    “Hopefully something can be worked out which is good (GREAT!) for Japan and the USA!” Trump wrote in a social media post ahead of the meeting.

    OBSERVATION - Trump recognizes the special relationship with Japan and is giving them a degree of preferential treatment.


    Phillipines –

    South China Sea: Two Chinese Coast Guard vessels harassing a small Philippine boat near Scarborough Shoal.
    Video shows the Chinese vessels hitting the boat with water from high pressure hoses / pumps. Tactic that has been increasingly employed over the past couple years and can disable a small boat.

    OBSERVATION - As China continues these aggressive measures against Philippines and other western Pacific / Asian nations the potential for an armed clash grows. This fire hosing tactic is not passive, but has caused serious injuries in the past and is a direct assault on the territorial rights of Philippines and others.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.

    RUMINT –
    InformNapalm -a volunteer intelligence community focused on exposing Russia’s military activities- reports that Russian forces may be using chemical agents on Shahed drones to harm those collecting wreckage according to sources within the Ukrainian military.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Overnight, Russia launched 75 Shahed drones at Ukraine. A total of 25 were shot down, and 30 more were suppressed by EW or were lost in location.

    Dnipro faced the brunt of the Shahed attack with at least 10 finding their target. Many fires in the city after the raid. At least 2 children wounded. Extensive damage in the central part of the city

    Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 71 drones overnight.

    Overnight, another strike hit Russia’s 112th Missile Brigade (Shuya, Ivanovo region). Ukrainian drones targeted weapon depots, personnel quarters, vehicle shelters, a power substation, and a water tower. This is the same brigade that attacked Sumy days ago.

    Russian losses per 17/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.

    +1230 men
    +16 tanks
    +54 AFVs
    +65 artillery
    +2 MLRS
    +3 AD systems

    Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Preobrazhenka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

    Yesterday, Russian forces launched a large-scale (battalion sized) assault in southern Ukraine near Pyatykhatky, Stepove, Lobkove, Mala Tokmachka & Mali Shcherbaky with ~320 troops, ~40 armored vehicles, 3 tanks & 10 buggies.
    Ukrainian defenders, warned by aerial recon, hit them with drones & artillery. After a 2-hour battle, 29 vehicles and 140 Russians were destroyed. No Ukrainian positions were lost.

    Summary —

    Deteriorating Shahed defense due to new Russia tactics continues to cause a lot of damage to Ukraine.

    The news of another mechanized attack of a battalion sized unit in S Ukraine suggests Russia is trying to get that method of warfare working in its favor as a means to break thru Ukraine defenses and exploit for more territorial gains. The Ukrainian response to this unsupported Russian attack shows just how lethal the battlefield has become for mechanized units to trundle in line down a road. The Russia unit was all on its own, no apparent supporting attacks from adjacent units. These attacks just cause Russia to lose scarce armored resources.


    Europe / NATO General –

    Britain backs Germany’s potential decision to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine — a boost for incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz. He insists on UK & French agreement before delivery, but still faces coalition divisions over the move.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Questions of reported delays in an expected attack on Iran.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

    The IDF says it’s steadily increasing pressure on Hamxs to secure a hostage deal but has not launched a full offensive yet to avoid collapsing negotiations. No date has been set for such an operation, which would be decided by Israel’s leadership.

    Now approximately 40% of Gaza is under Israeli control.

    ***
    The Wall Street Journal this morning: Hamas is in serious financial trouble and cannot pay salaries to terrorists and govt officials.

    NOTE - Combination of destruction of money flow into Gaza and tight control of food / aid coming in that is basically hijacked by Hamas et al and resold in the market place.

    ***
    Israeli journalists reportedly have leaked plans for an Israeli commando unit to infiltrate into Iran and take out key nuclear facilities in that manner and rely less on air strikes. Reports indicate the joint Israeli / US operation would not be ready until October.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    IAF hit motorcycles / vehicles suspected of carrying Hezbollah members using rockets fired by drones.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    Around 20 large U.S. strikes were reported earlier near the Al-Hafa Military Base on the outskirts of the Houthi capital of Sana’a in Yemen (map). Al-Hafa was a Saleh-era underground base and is a known location of Houthi underground facilities.

    Additional:
    The site has been under expansion since the Houthis took the Yemeni capital of Sana’a back in 2014 and was targeted before the current U.S. involvement by the Saudi-led coalition at least twice in 2021 and 2022

    ***
    Al Arabiya Network: US strikes in Yemen tonight were the most powerful in the past month
    Arab media outlets are reporting nearly 30 overnight attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen, including about 20 in the Sana’a province. According to these sources, the attacks were particularly powerful due to the type of bombs used.
    According to Al Jazeera, within 24 hours the US carried out 68 attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen.

    ***
    Talk from arab media suggests that the extent of the destruction brought on by the US attacks have set up conditions favorable for the proper govt of Yemen to take actions to eliminate the Houthis.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Gaza - Hamas is hurting structurally and morally. Evidenced by Hamas offering more and more hostages in exchange for a ceasefire. Israel continues to put the pressure on, increasing from 30 to now 40% control of the strip. Hamas is running out of places to hide as well as resources to fight with.

    Lebanon and Syria - Almost routine targeting of Hezbollah elements by drones. Otherwise relatively quiet on this front.

    Houthis ballistic missile attacks becoming further and further apart.

    “Leaks” of battle plans proliferating from Israel and the US. Indications suggest these are efforts to stop / delay actions against Iran, like the leak of the Israeli strike last year that caused a reset of Israeli planning.

    Iran still ticking. See below


    Iran –
    - May 5th - projected end of negotiation window

    US. Advises Israeli Officials to Delay Strikes on Iran:
    Citing unnamed Trump administration officials with knowledge on the matter, the New York Times (NYT) reported that top Israeli decision-makers planned to conduct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as early as next month but were told by the U.S. “that the White House wanted to put the plan to attack the [Iranian] nuclear facility on hold. Officials also told the NYT that most, if not all, of Israel’s concepts of operations (CONOP) would need the U.S. to directly support and/or participate in the strikes if they wanted to achieve said strike’s operational goals. During their recent meeting in Washington, D.C., U.S. President Donald J. Trump also reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. would not support any unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran while U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are ongoing.

    OBSERVATION - A great deal of conflicting reports surrounding this information which was “released” by an unnamed “official”. Some claim this is a planted report designed to try to split Trump / Netanyahu. Other claims that this report was “leaked” by leftist Israeli journalists.

    OTOH, Trump has made swift changes to military options towards Iran in the past. As 45, Trump called off an airstrike on Iran due to what he perceived as too many potential civilian casualties. But in other cases, he drops the MOAB like he did on the Taliban.

    Witkoff’s recent 180 on the US position towards Iran’s nuclear program indicates that the military option is still very much on the table.

    He has staked a lot of credibility on his warning that Iran can denuclearize its program the easy or the hard. He restated that demand yesterday. At this stage he can afford a little flexibility, but not the multiple months (years) that Iran wants to drag this out over.

    I don’t think Iran is out of the woods yet.

    ***
    Not a nuclear physicist but read an article from a group that monitors Iran and they indicate that Iran can create a bomb very quickly. They use a baseline of 17 KG of purified Uranium for the optimum bomb, and has the capability to enrich enough for 5 bombs of that size within a couple weeks. Computer simulation and protected tests of the triggering device could already been conducted or quickly done. Should Iran decide to go with a smaller bomb, say with half the uranium, they would get a lower yield, but a more transportable and deliverable weapon.

    There would still be some obstacles in getting a package that can deliver it to Israel or other target. First is the creation of a warhead that its missiles can actually lift and deliver the desired distance. Second, that warhead has to have an adequate reentry shield to protect it as it reenters the atmosphere. May not be too difficult to overcome as current reentry warhead show that the conventional bombs have protection. Finally, having a dependable rocket that doesn’t fail in route and a way to overcome Israeli anti-ballastic missile defenses.

    Of course there are other, more unconventional methods or targets Iran can use. Key issue is once the genie is out of the bottle, it will become far harder to put it back in, even with massive bombing of Iran’s facilities.

    Speculation on the state of Iran’s nuclear program continues to be a driving factor in US and Israeli planning. The fact that Iran can make the jump in short order is very concerning.


  • Driven by climate change, most popular national parks could see quintupling of ‘extremely hot’ days by 2050

    04/17/2025 4:44:43 AM PDT · 15 of 46
    Godzilla to Oldeconomybuyer

    Boise PUBLIC radio - says it all right there.

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/16/2025 6:08:17 AM PDT · 408 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
    - Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    Stocks and bonds are expected to continue a roller coaster ride this week.

    ***
    Over 130 countries are negotiating with the US to move towards zero tariffs.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    Israel media: US security officials have informed Israel’s defense establishment that a phased withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Syria will begin within two months

    ***
    Politico is now reporting that in addition to Dan Caldwell, a top adviser to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth; the Pentagon’s Deputy Chief of Staff, Darin Selnick, was also escorted out of the building by security and placed on administrative leave earlier Tuesday, as part of the same ongoing investigation into “unauthorized disclosures/leaks” from the Department of Defense. Selnick served in the White House and the Department of Veterans Affairs during President Trump’s first presidential term, and earlier this year performed the duties of Acting Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness.

    OBSERVATION - Two big advisors out. When will charges be filed?


    TRUMP Watch –

    Trump will skip the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on April 26 as his allies continue to float plans for a rival event on the same day, Axios reported.


    Illegal Immigration –

    Daily Border Encounters:
    March 2024 under Biden: 4,488
    March 2025 under Trump: 264


    China -

    White House:
    China now faces up to a 245% tariff on imports to the United States as a result of its retaliatory actions.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Ukrainian Parliament has voted to extend martial law until 6th August

    Overnight, Russia launched 97 Shahed drones of which 57 were shot down and another 34 were either suppressed by electronic warfare or did not reach their intended target and were lost in location.
    3 people wounded as result of drone strikes in Odesa. Drone related explosions reported in Pavlohrad, Kamianske and Sumy

    Russian losses per 16/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff

    +1050 men
    +9 tanks
    +13 AFVs
    +87 artillery

    Summary —

    Drones continue to out fox Ukraine ADA and find targets.
    Ground fighting has the appearance of moderate levels of fighting, through there are reports that Russia continues to launch company - battalion level mechanized assaults that get picked apart by Ukraine FPV drones rather quickly.

    If it is possible for peace talks to have regressed, well they have. Russia continues to press for a complete surrender of Ukraine and ceding all territory it desires back to Russia.


    ISRAEL –

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff has now walked back his comments last night on Fox News that described a conceptual Iran proposal eerily reminiscent of the failed Obama-era JCPOA (Iran Deal) framework. About an hour ago, Ambassador Witkoff returned to the Trump administration’s previous sentiments on the process, saying that “Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program.”

    A very important X post from Steve Witkoff, which clarifies (contrary to what was implied in his words yesterday) that Iran cannot have the ability to enrich uranium, and must dismantle the relevant infrastructure.

    Witkoff’s statement last night raised serious concerns in Israel.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

    The IDF and Shin Bet announced Wednesday it eliminated Mahmud Ibrahim Hasan Abu Hisirah, a member of Hamas’ elite Nukhba force who took part in the July 28, 2014, infiltration attack during Operation Protective Edge, when five Israeli soldiers were killed near Nahal Oz.

    According to the IDF, Abu Hassira was a top Hamas operative and the deputy of Hamas’ Gaza City Brigade commander Izz al-Din Haddad — one of the terror group’s two most senior military leaders in the Strip. He was killed several days ago in an airstrike in Gaza City, reportedly carried out last Thursday.

    https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hydkhhna1e

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Multiple drone strikes targeting probable Hezbollah leaders or teams in S Lebanon.

    ***
    Following president of Lebanon’s order to fully disarm Hezbollah, Lebanese military has started to remove all signs and banners of Hezbollah from Beirut.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    Over a dozen overnight airstrikes by US forces on Houthi targets.

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    Iranian Foreign Ministry: Tehran strongly condemns the ongoing US airstrikes on Yemen and expresses its solidarity with the Yemeni people.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    IAF made several airstrikes in Gaza and used pinpoint drone strikes in S Lebanon.

    Looking like Lebanon is getting started on hold up its end of the ceasefire agreement. Rather symbolic removals of Hezbollah propaganda banners and signs in the country. Easy since the signs are not armed. Dealing with Hezbollah proper is another matter.

    Witkoff’s waffling statements over Iran and and nuclear deal continue to echo. Good news is it seems Trump has gotten his attention and focused him on Trump’s priorities, not his own. Bad new is that he has placed the US in a more difficult negotiating position of one having to reassert itself. Iran is driving the agenda and press releases at the moment. And see below under Iran - US weakness has emboldened Iran. Trump may grant some flexibility in the two month warning, but not much.


    Iran –
    - May 5th - projected end of negotiation window

    Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi: Tehran’s right to enrich uranium is not subject to negotiations with the US


    JORDAN -

    Jordan has announced that it has arrested 16 people, thwarting a plot that threatened national security, involving rockets, explosives, and a factory to make drones.

    OBSERVATION - Jordan has a growing islamist / jihadist movement that has been developing over the past several plus years. It has forced the king of Jordan more towards the jihadi’s in his country in order to avoid an open civil war. This has resulted in increasingly strained relations with Israel. Jordan’s support for Israel in the recent Iranian missile attacks was due to the greater hatred by Jordanian sunnis towards shia Iran over Israel


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/15/2025 10:30:20 AM PDT · 406 of 442
    Godzilla to Chani

    Nope. Witkoff has been essentially repeating 0bama era points with no urgency

    Iran sees this as weakness. While trump is ready to put the hammer down and gave a deadline. Witkoff needs to get in sync with his boss.

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/15/2025 6:07:18 AM PDT · 401 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

    Most people on the right have no idea just how crazed many people on the left have become. Right now, a conspiracy theory which claims that President Trump is preparing to declare martial law in the United States is spreading like wildfire on social media. According to that conspiracy theory, a report will be submitted to President Trump on April 20th which will recommend that he should invoke the Insurrection Act to help deal with the border crisis. That would allow U.S. troops to help secure the border, but many leftists are convinced that President Trump will also use U.S. troops to round up political activists and send them to prisons in El Salvador. I realize that this may sound really bizarre to many of you, but this is what many of them actually believe.

    But this is what they actually believe, and they are going to act accordingly.

    https://endoftheamericandream.com/a-conspiracy-theory-that-is-being-pushed-by-the-left-claims-that-something-really-big-is-going-to-happen-on-april-20th/#google_vignette

    OBSERVATION - Stories like this are spreading widely across the inter web homes of leftists. The link clarifies some of the misconceptions by the left, but that doesn’t seem to phase them. As it is just 5 days away, there is the possibility of some act by these true believers to destroy or riot. Organization of such is largely absent on the OSINT channels I monitor though. Just something to file in the back of your mind. The left is continuing to press for violence and this is another outgrowth.

    ***
    A legal organization with ties to the far-left Antifa movement has joined forces with anti-Tesla activists angry about CEO Elon Musk’s role in the Trump administration.

    The Oregon-based Civil Liberties Defense Center (CLDC) has been giving virtual training to groups leading anti-Tesla protests. The CLDC is known to help alleged Antifa agitators fight charges in court, adheres to their anti-police ideology and lost one of its volunteer workers in a shootout with law enforcement in 2019.

    “It’s time to be strategic and effective, but it’s not time to be afraid or silenced,” CLDC Executive Director Lauren Regan told a virtual audience in a March 19 “Tesla Takedown” video call. She warned that protesters should be aware of their “geography” to avoid getting arrested.

    https://dailycallernewsfoundation.org/2025/04/11/legal-group-joining-anti-tesla-movement-has-violent-far-left-history/

    OBSERVATION - Double billed under (Domestic) Terrorism. Laying down legal defense foundations are an indicator of the desire to escalate violent actions in the future.

    Also note - they are aware that their legal environment has changed significantly since 2020, with acts of domestic terror actually having individuals arrested and prosecuted.


    Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
    - Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended

    Holy Week begins with Palm Sunday today thru next Sunday (Resurrection Sunday). Elevated concerns for islamic terror across the world.

    ***
    AG Pam Bondi announces an arrest has been made in connection to the terrorist attack on a Tesla dealership in New Mexico and the New Mexico Republican Party Headquarters.

    Jamison Wagner, 40, has been federally charged with arson attacks on Tesla and the New Mexico GOP HQ.

    “We are seeking up to 40 years in prison—no negotiating.”


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    Stocks and bonds are expected to continue a roller coaster ride this week.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    A lot of the heavy airlift of suspected air defense systems to the middle east tracked by OSINT watchers has died down with the exception of continued C17 traffic into Israel and Diego Garcia. These observers suggest this may be resupply flights for more air defense missiles as well as B2 munitions for potential Iranian action as well as ongoing support of attacks against the Houthis.


    Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

    A peer-reviewed study published last week in Immunity, Inflammation and Disease adds to the growing scientific evidence that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines can cause the body to continue producing the spike protein much longer than expected, leading to immune system dysregulation.

    https://jdrucker.com/young-adults-continue-to-produce-spike-protein-one-year-after-receiving-covid-vaccine/

    OBSERVATION - This is foundational basis for countless lawsuits against Pfizer and Moderna.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    The White House has started notifying Congress of a plan to eliminate all public broadcasting funding and codify foreign aid cuts identified by Elon Musk’s DOGE. Key proposed cuts include $1.1 billion for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which funds PBS and NPR, and $8.3 billion from USAID - NYP

    OBSERVATION - Defunding is long overdue.

    ***
    Ongoing lawfare regarding deportation of illegals, more activist district judges peep up.


    TRUMP Watch –

    President Donald Trump meet with El Salvador President Nayib Bukele in the Oval Office on Monday, April 14. Bukele turned El Salvador from one of the most violent countries into the world into one of the safest with his crackdown on criminal gangs, receiving the highest travel safety rating from the State Department last week.


    Illegal Immigration –

    Another district judge interfering with executive action trying to block the biden ‘pardons’ of illegals into there country.


    China -

    Officially stops exports of rare earth metals to the US today.

    Called for support against the US on tariffs at an Asian cooperative meeting. China was rebuked by attendees for its aggressive actions against member nations in the S China Sea regions.


    Japan –

    Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba and NATO Secretary General Rutte released a joint statement declaring the “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element in security.” At the meeting, Rutte also said the U.S. is pushing for increased power projection from NATO into the Indo-Pacific.


    Russia -

    Reports are now surfacing that Russia has requested basing for long-range strategic bombers in Indonesia. Janes, citing unnamed Indonesian officials close to the matter, has seemingly confirmed earlier reporting that Indonesian decision-makers were indeed approached by their Russian counterparts back in February 2025. The Russian request for such a deal, which Australian officials say has yet to be decided on, would put Russian strike assets, and presumably Chinese as well, within range of key U.S. and partner nation installations.

    OBSERVATION - Russia seeking power projection options for the western Pacific region, including key military facilities such as Guam and Diego Garcia.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.

    Yesterday was the anniversary of the sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship “Moskva” by Ukraine sea borne drones. It marked the decline and essential defeat of the fleet over the next year, with Ukraine gaining free movement of its elements across the western Black Sea area, and Russian fleet assets essentially abandoning Crimean ports for Russian ports further away from Ukraine, where they have more or less remained docked.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Ukrainian air defense shot down 26 Shahed-type drones overnight

    Last night, Ukrainian forces struck military unit 35535 — the base of Russia’s 448th missile brigade in Klyukva, Kursk region. This brigade had reportedly been launching Iskander missile attacks on the city of Sumy.

    Explosive night in Russia: Over 30 blasts rocked Kursk due to a massive drone attack — Russian media. 115 UAVs reportedly targeted 5 regions across Russia, including Moscow oblast.

    Russian losses per 15/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff

    +1180 men
    +7 tanks
    +20 AFVs
    +68 artillery
    +2 MLRS
    +2 AD systems

    Sumy -

    There continues to be high concentrations of Russia air strikes in the region between Sumy and the border, with no associated ground activity. Continues to look like preparation of the battlefield for a potential large Russian assault.

    Summary —

    Moderate levels of fighting along the front. Still “abnormal” Russian glide bomb attacks in the Suma region suggesting battlefield preparation for a potential Russian offensive into the region.

    Yesterday I made an error and called the German cruise missiles “heavy Shadow Cruise missiles,” they are correctly called Tarus. Should Ukraine get these weapons, the game is on as to how soon they would use them to strike the Kerch Strait bridge. Destruction of the bridge would seriously impact Russian logistic support to the southern portions of the front via Crimea. The options for Russia would be to resume hazardous ferry operations across the strait - heavily damaged last year by Ukraine drones - or an equally dangerous land route thru occupied territory in southeastern Ukraine.

    In today’s dynamic, it appears Germany’s new PM is all supporting of the use against the bridge. The destruction of which could trigger significant responses by putin against Ukraine and more dangerously, against Germany or other NATO element. See “Europe / NATO General” below

    Ukraine’s new extended range Neptune cruise missile has the capability to hit the bridge, but is limited in explosives, with the Tarus carrying a larger warhead more suitable to destroy the bridge structure.

    Over the past months, Ukraine has maintained pressures on Russian ADA assets in Crimea using sea launched UAVs to strike radars and batteries. Likely in anticipation of an attempt on the bridge some time in the future.


    Europe / NATO General –

    German Chancellor Fritz Merz who upped-the-ante in the most dangerous way since the start of the conflict. Merz suggested on April 13 that long-range “Taurus” missiles, if delivered to Ukraine, could be used to target strategic Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, including the Kerch Bridge.
    The 19-kilometer-long (12-mile) Crimean (Kerch) Bridge, was constructed following Crimea voting in a public referendum to secede from Ukraine and join Russia in 2014. The bridge was completed in 2018, and serves as a vital supply route for Russian forces. The bridge has been targeted by Ukraine multiple times, suffering heavy damage in strikes in October 2022 and July 2023.

    In an interview with ARD’s Caren Miosga, Merz emphasized the need to support Ukraine in moving from a reactive to a proactive stance on the battlefield, saying Kyiv must be equipped to “shape events” and “get ahead of the situation.”

    “If things continue as they are, if, for example, the most important land connection between Russia and Crimea is destroyed, or if something happens on Crimea itself, where most of the Russian military logistics are located, then that would be an opportunity to bring this country strategically back into the picture finally,” Merz said.

    While outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly blocked the delivery of Taurus missiles over his concerns about escalation, Merz has long criticized that stance.

    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/german-leader-merz-says-attack-crimea-bridge-russian-medvedev-says-think-twice-nazi


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - More back and forth on hostage releases and associate ceasefires. Hamas has rejected all offers.

    - Israel receives munitions held back by biden administration

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    The proposal, passed to Hamas by Egypt and confirmed by multiple Arab outlets Monday, calls for the release of 10 hostages in exchange for 120 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences. It also outlines a framework for a permanent ceasefire and the removal of Hamas’ weapons.

    Senior Hamas official: The movement is examining the Israeli proposal that was submitted, which includes a first phase of a 45-day ceasefire, discussions on a permanent ceasefire, disarmament of Hamas, and the release of hostages and bodies in stages. The official response is expected shortly, probably within 48 hours.

    Hamas: Israel wants to return the hostages without entering the second phase, and this is unacceptable.

    Reuters, citing Egyptian and Palestinian sources: No breakthrough in Gaza talks

    ***
    Israeli Air Force is set to receive over 3,000 U.S.-made munitions to boost readiness for expanded invasion in Gaza, with attention also on Iran.

    An additional 10,000 air-to-ground munitions—previously frozen under Biden—will be transferred following Trump’s return to the White House.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Gaza - Hamas continues to loose terrain a bite at a time. A lot of huff and fuss over hostage / ceasefire proposals, but Hamas is rejecting them. The fact that they are entertaining releasing a lot more hostages (living and dead) for fewer prisoners suggests that the squeeze is on big time and they are losing their leverage.

    Lebanon and Syria relatively stable.

    Houthi continue to get hammered daily.

    Iran - confusing messages from the WH - See Iran below.


    Iran –
    - May 5th - projected end of negotiation window

    Iranian media citing Khamenei: The first steps of the Omani negotiations were “good”

    Iranian media citing Khamenei: Tehran should not link its national affairs to talks with the United States

    UN nuclear watchdog chief to arrive in Tehran on Wednesday - state media

    Axios: A second round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran is expected to take place in Rome on Saturday, two sources with knowledge of the issue said

    TRUMP: Iran is very close to having a nuclear weapon. If military intervention is necessary, we will do it.

    Iran has to get rid of the concept of a nuclear weapon. They cannot have a nuclear weapon. If we have to something very harsh, we will do it.

    OBSERVATION - There are two stories coming from DC regarding the US position. Wickoff’s statements suggest a very milk toast demand on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. OTOH Trump / Rubio are very much hawkish and saying all nuclear ambitions have to go. Who’s speaking for who at this stage.

    Remember, Islamic views strength matters. Trump has laid a line in the sand - two months. Should he obfuscate that line and delay, it would indicate to Iran weakness that would cause them to continue to delay and deny any progress towards a disarmament agreement on the nuclear program.

    Next Saturday’s round of indirect ‘discussions’ has to clarify and unify the US position to Iran with out a shadow of a doubt.


    Saudi Arabia –

    Saudi Arabia and the US are set to develop a civil nuclear program. US Energy Secretary stated that a broad energy cooperation agreement will be signed within weeks, with a nuclear deal within months.

    OBSERVATION - A civilian nuclear program for Saudi Arabia has been floating about for many years, strongly opposed by Israel for concerns that it could be adapted into a cover for a nuclear weapon program. Those fears apparently have eased over time.


    Syria -

    The new Syrian President, Ahmad Al-Sharaa (Al-Jolani) met with an Israeli delegation in Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates yesterday
    Reportedly, the two sides discussed the possibility of a normalization of ties between Syria and Israel, as well as Emirati investments into Syrian infrastructure.
    (Middle East Spectator)
    .


    Mexico -

    President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico will deliver more water to Texas under a 1944 water treaty, after the Trump administration threatened to levy sanctions on Mexico for shorting deliveries. Sheinbaum said Mexico is working to alleviate its own water shortages, and will increase water deliveries so long as they do not negatively impact Mexico’s water shortages.


    Misc of Note –

    M 5.2 - 5 km S of Julian, CA caused quite a stir yesterday among the kalifornia is falling off into the ocean crowd. Quake along the active Elsinore Fault zone is not an uncommon event. But it should serve as a reminder to Freepers who live in seismically hazardous zones to check on their preps. Make sure you have earthquake riders on your property insurance and have your food/water/shelter plans in place should a big one hit.


  • Blue Origin rocket with all-female crew, including Katy Perry, set for Monday launch

    04/14/2025 6:15:28 AM PDT · 42 of 148
    Godzilla to Oldeconomybuyer

    It is a stretch to call this a crew - they are more like passengers on an amusement ride.

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/14/2025 6:03:02 AM PDT · 397 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    I don’t say it too often, but PM me if interested in being added to the ping list.

    Now prepare for another wild week.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

    A Colorado gun group delivered a petition Thursday morning to Gov. Jared Polis urging him to veto a controversial gun control bill that the legislature recently passed.
    Senate Bill 25-003 was originally an outright ban on the sale or purchase of most semi-automatic rifles or shotguns that take detachable magazines, but was amended to allow for purchases if an individual secures a “firearms safety course eligibility card” from their sheriff department and completes a qualifying firearm education course.
    The bill is “a dangerous attack on our Second Amendment freedoms,” the Colorado State Shooting Association said in an email appeal for their petition on Wednesday. “This is a defining moment for Colorado gun owners, and we need you in this fight.”

    https://www.aol.com/gun-group-urges-colorado-governor-174500260.html

    OBSERVATION - Once again, the country is being divided on essential, constitutional rights, this time by Colorado. This is a key point where constitutional rights no longer transcend state lines. Now individual states control those constitutional rights - state law over constitution. Similar issue with CCW, those constitutionally endowed rights limited on a state by state basis.

    Secondly, the marxist left GLOBALLY has used disarmament in the name of ‘safety’ to shore up their tyrannical efforts to keep the people at bay while they engage their plans. Just look today at the terror in England (going as far as instituting a waiting period for some kitchen knives for crying out loud), Canada, Australia, etc. Major communistic massacres resulted in recent history following disarmament of the citizens - Cambodia, China, etc.


    Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
    - Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended

    Holy Week begins with Palm Sunday today thru next Sunday (Resurrection Sunday). Elevated concerns for islamic terror across the world.


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    30Y mortgage rates hit 7.07% Very bad news for the housing market..

    OBSERVATION - Housing market is a critical indicator of economic health, and this isn’t helping.

    ***
    Last I checked, Dow futures were up on news of a exemption for exclusion of phones and computers from tariffs. However, how long this exemption may last is unknown as they were declared as being ‘temporary’

    ***
    Financial disturbances caused by the tariff war appear to be stabilizing for the near term. The 90 day pause and the recent high-tech exemption seem to be giving the markets some breathing room to make more adjustments before more actions occur . The most volatile point is US / China tariffs and whether or not Trump will raise them further.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is now on station off the coast of Oman. Reports are that its aircraft are now engaging Houthi targets.


    Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

    The horrors of the mRNA jab continue to be exposed now that restrictions to investigation are removed.

    Throughout 2024, embalmers were still seeing white fibrous, rubbery clots in 27% of corpses. An intrepid team continue to investigate what is actually causing them.

    At the end of March, one of the team members, Tom Haviland, published an update on what they had discovered. They confirmed the presence of amyloid proteins in the white fibrous clots, and new research has led them to believe these amyloid structures are caused by “phosphorylation” induced by covid injections.

    Most worrisome is perhaps that there is a subset of amyloid proteins called “prions” which cause neurovascular or neurodegenerative disorders such as Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (“CKD”), Parkinson’s disease and Alzheimer’s-like dementia. The fibrous clots have tested positive for prion-like seeding activity. This means the covid injections may result in prion diseases developing in younger and younger people. How many people may fall victim to these prions is not known.

    https://expose-news.com/2025/04/03/fibrous-rubbery-clots-caused-by-covid-injections/


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    Prominent Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are drawing attention this week for past support of tariff policies similar to those implemented by President Donald Trump as part of his administration’s recent “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs, as reported by The Western Journal.
    On Wednesday, Pelosi criticized Trump’s tariff strategy on X, writing: “Donald Trump’s reckless tariffs will cause chaos in our economy, raise prices for consumers and hurt hardworking American families. This is not a strategy — it’s the largest tax hike on the American people in history.”

    However, a resurfaced video from 1996, shared by Trump’s rapid response team on X and aired by Fox News, shows Pelosi voicing support for reciprocal trade measures. In the footage, she criticized Chinese tariffs on American goods, echoing Trump’s longstanding concern about the U.S.-China trade imbalance.

    In a separate instance from 2018, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer voiced support for Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs on China.

    https://thepopulisttimes.com/tariff-hypocrisy-exposed-pelosi-dems-slam-trump-for-policy-they-once-defended/

    OBSERVATION - The internet has a loooooooong memory, even if the sheeple don’t.


    Illegal Immigration –

    SSNs have been stripped from illegals who got them . . . illegally. This may drive many to self deport now that the gravy train (associated Medicare benefits too) are being stripped.


    China -

    RUMINT - China’s top military officer has been missing for a month.

    OBSERVATION - Found this bullet headline floating around the inter webs, still looking for more information. Posted for general awareness should something develop out of it.

    ***
    China reportedly working out ways to prevent the US from getting any strategic materials is choses to ship to other countries who then may turn around and forward to the US.


    Russia -

    It is estimated that Russia currently produces 330-350 Shahed-136 drones per month. The balance made up from Iran.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Overnight, Russia launched 62 Shahed drones of which 40 were shot down and another 11 didn’t reach their intended target and were lost in location.

    Russian losses per 14/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.

    +1310 men
    +19 tanks
    +42 AFVs
    +59 artillery
    +2 AD systems

    Zaporizhzhia Axis -

    Ukraine reports of a battalion sized mechanized Russian attack in the sector that was turned back after Russia suffered moderate losses of equipment and personnel.

    Summary —

    Nothing remarkable. Moderately heavy fighting along the front except where noted.

    Relatively moderate drone attack with a relatively high penetration rate. Note Russia production estimates for Shahed production above under Russia, 330-350 Shahed-136 drones per month, come out to 10 - 12 per day. So that even a smaller attack as this one, suggests that Russia relies on Iran for the remaining 50 drones.

    Ceasefire talks are still stuck in the mud.


    Europe / NATO General –

    In general, many European countries are trying to increase production of war materials in part to supply Ukraine and in part to (re)build their stockpiles for a war with Russia that may directly involve them.

    Incoming new German prime minister indicates that they may be more willing to allow Ukraine to get their heavy Shadow Cruise missiles, in coordination with England and France. These missiles have the capability to take out the Kerch Straits Bridge into Crimea and have been long desired by Ukraine for that as well as other targets.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - New hostage release proposal submitted by Egypt. Initially rejected by Hamas.

    - IDF continues to expand control over Gaza.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Al Akhbar has reported additional details of the Egyptian proposal for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Hamas terror group, which would see around half of the hostages still held in Gaza released.

    Under the agreement, enormous quantities of humanitarian aid would be brought into Gaza on a daily basis, on the basis of what was adopted during the previous deal.

    The Egyptian proposal also includes an Israeli withdrawal from several positions which the IDF has recently taken control of, as well as increased freedom of movement within Gaza.

    According to the report, the Egyptian plan includes a 40-70 day ceasefire, during which eight living hostages are released, including Edan Alexander, and eight hostages’ bodies are released. In exchange, Israel will release around 1,100 living terrorists.

    The source also said that the Egyptian proposal under negotiation may lead to the release of 11 living Israeli hostages and 16 bodies of hostages, on condition that Israel agree to a 70-day ceasefire.

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406803

    ***
    Hamas: Israel wants to return the hostages without entering the second phase, and this is unacceptable.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

    In southern Gaza, IDF troops dismantled a significant underground tunnel route, stretching 20 meters deep and several hundred meters long, in the ‘Shabura’ area of Rafah. This tunnel was used as a meeting point for Hamas operatives and connected several other tunnel routes in the region.

    Additionally, during a separate operation, IDF troops discovered a Hamas weapons cache hidden within a structure that had once served as a school. The cache contained various weapons, including mortars, hand grenades, explosives, and other military supplies.

    In northern Gaza, IDF soldiers identified a terrorist ambush several hundred meters away. With coordination from the IAF, the ambush was neutralized, and the terrorists were killed.

    IDF troops also located additional weapons caches and several tunnel shafts used by terrorist groups in the Rafah and Morag Corridor areas.

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-850068

    ——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

    Clashes between Palestinians and Israeli forces in Qaryut, south of Nablus, in Samaria.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen take responsibility for yesterdays ballistic missile attack on Israel. One launch was detected and intercepted outside the Israeli’s territory.

    ***
    The U.S. Navy and Air Force carried out over 60+ strikes this weekend against the Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist group in the Al-Bayda, Al-Jawf, Hudaydah, Marib, Saada and Sana’a Governorates of Western Yemen, targeting military and infrastructure sites, including a number of weapons productions facilities Sunday on the outskirts of the capital of Sana’a.

    ***
    Missile depots were destroyed overnight in an attack by US Central Command.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Don’t hold your breath for a hostage deal just yet. Hamas continues to hold to demands under a ‘Phase 2” proposal that would release far fewer hostages (living and dead) over a much longer period of time and total removal of Israel from Gaza. Other Hamas elements may drift to the Egyptian proposal seeing the reality in the fact that Israel is progressively squeezing them into a smaller and smaller box, where a hard attack could eliminate the organization. This also would reflect a split in Hamas and their view of future operations as well.

    It is still rather shocking to contemplate that Israel has only discovered and destroyed sometime like 25% of the Hamas tunnel network. This is due largely to biden forcing Israel to hold off entering major cities in Gaza like Rafah and Khan Yunis. Those biden restrictions are now long off the table.

    IDF expansion into these areas of Gaza have been relatively unopposed by Hamas. This could be reflected in many ways - hiding out in tunnels hoping for another ceasefire or lack of commitment by recent recruits to the cause.

    Lebanon and Syria both relatively stable. This could change in a moment if/when Israel detects more ammo stockpiles it may have missed in past air strikes.

    Iran clock keeps ticking down.


    Iran –
    - May 5th - end of negotiation window

    Aboard Air Force One last night, President Trump told reporters he had met with his advisers and that “we’ll be making a decision on Iran very quickly,” according to Reuters.

    ***
    The Iranian chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Islami: “We will continue to enrich uranium and gouge out our eyes at the West”

    He added that even though the US and “other countries” (i.e. Israel) are trying to intimidate it, Iran has nevertheless crossed all the red lines they set and they have done nothing to it.

    ***
    The day before the talks began, Mohammad-Javad Larijani, Khamenei’s foreign affairs advisor, was interviewed on Iranian television and tried to cool the mood regarding the negotiations.

    According to him, the negotiations will last several months, and the Iranian people should not expect a quick solution.

    OBSERVATIONS - Other than planning to meet this next Saturday, larger level discussion of the weekend’s nothing burger of talks has been quiet. Elements within the Trump cabinet reiterated that Iran only has a short period of time to come around to a complete elimination of its efforts to produce a bomb. Witkof’s negotiations so far have only appeared to embolden Iran to maintain the status quo and potentially delay an apparent impending US / Israeli air campaign . The goal is to drag out the talks as much as possible.

    Trump is indicating that a decision point is coming soon. That better be relayed to Witkoff in large letters. There has to be, he has caused a significant amount of US military assets to be prepositioned against Iran, an effort in its self of large effort and costs. It is fish or cut bait time, and if he fails to follow up on his word to bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran, the US will face serious credibility in the region and with Israel.

    REMEMBER - Iran and other moslem nations in the region respond to force and any lack thereof is weakness.
    A historic example is the Carter era hostage crisis. Carter was weak, Reagan OTOH was ready to go to war with Iran, and they quickly released them.


    Syria -

    Turkish Defense Minister: Establishing stability in Syria and preserving its territorial integrity are crucial to the future of our region. We continue to support building Syria’s security and defense capabilities, and our war against terrorist organizations continues.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/13/2025 5:48:54 AM PDT · 394 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Globalism / Great Reset –

    The agenda to enforce biometrics for air travel is gaining steam as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a specialized agency of the United Nations that coordinates global airline policy, wants to enforce digital surveillance on passengers.

    The agency wants to introduce a “digital travel credential” that would enable facial recognition technology to replace your boarding pass.

    In other words, flying would require giving up your biometric data.

    https://100percentfedup.com/242302-2/

    OBSERVATION - Movement to a biometric ID requirement also is a move towards digital ID.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

    More general protests across the nation. Low probability of widespread violence, though there may be localized vandalism and violence.


    Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
    - Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April.

    Holy Week begins with Palm Sunday today thru next Sunday (Resurrection Sunday). Elevated concerns for islamic terror across the world.


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    Stock markets taking a breather before another hectic week hits.

    ***
    Trump has excluded electronics from the latest round of tariffs.


    Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

    The World Health Organization (WHO) convened more than 15 countries and 20 regional health agencies to conduct a two-day simulation of a “fictional virus spreading across the world.”

    “The two-day simulation, Exercise Polaris, tested WHO’s Global Health Emergency Corps (GHEC), a framework designed to strengthen countries’ emergency workforce, coordinate the deployment of surge teams and experts, and enhance collaboration between countries,” the WHO announced.

    Exercise Polaris raises red flags about what global health policies international bodies wish to enact for the next ‘outbreak.’

    Event 201 infamously occurred right before COVID-19.

    https://100percentfedup.com/242310-2/

    OBSERVATION - Event - 201 forever placed a shadow over all these exercises given the parallels between the exercise and how the globe responded.

    Must also keep in mind globalists have run an exercise where the internet is shut down due to some sort of virus —affecting just about everything connected to the net. In particular, banking.


    TRUMP Watch –

    Trump was met with thunderous cheers upon entering UFC 314


    Cyber attacks/warfare –HIGH ALERT as of Mar 31, 2025
    - Threat status elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.

    ***

    China essentially took credit for the penetrations into US infrastructure controls via the internet.


    Illegal Immigration –

    Chaos ensued when ICE raided a protest in Denver, CO Saturday.


    Russia -

    Russia has already drained half of its $106B sovereign wealth fund, used to pay soldier salaries and recruitment bonuses, as monthly casualties reach up to 45,000 troops.

    To replace losses, regions are offering record sums, like $40,000 for suicide missions with 5% survival rates.

    Analysts warn the Kremlin may be forced to cut nonmilitary spending or burn through dwindling reserves.

    Putin’s economic cushion is shrinking fast — and $340B in frozen reserves isn’t helping.

    Source: NY Post

    ***
    Inflation is over 10%, recruitment is falling, and even North Korean and Chinese reinforcements aren’t enough to plug the gap.

    Meanwhile, Ukraine’s modern tactics are delivering 4-to-1 kill ratios, and Putin is stalling Trump’s ceasefire proposal, one Ukraine already agreed to.

    Russia is at a 45K loss of personnel per month - and is hard pressed to find recruits to fill the gap.

    ***
    Russia’s main oil grade, Urals, is now at ~$50 a barrel — far below the $69.70 the Kremlin budgeted for 2025.

    OBSERVATION - Russia is starting to feel the financial pinch of the war in an ever increasing manner. This is one of the reasons analysts indicate that at the present course, Russia will be unable to largely continue its war efforts at the current pace by 2026.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Russia launched 55 Shahed drones of which 43 were shot down and another 12 were lost in location without negative consequences, presumably downed by electronic warfare means.

    Two ballistic missiles hit central Sumy this Palm Sunday morning.
    — one reportedly struck a trolleybus. Smoke is rising over the city.

    Dozens of Ukrainian civilians have been killed or injured in the attack, with casualties now rising over 100.

    Russian losses per 13/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

    +1220 men
    +12 tanks
    +33 AFVs
    +71 artillery
    +1 AD system

    Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

    Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Yelyzavetivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

    Sumy -

    At least 21 people killed, 20 more wounded as result of Russian missile strike with 2 ballistic missiles in Sumy

    Russian airstrikes continue to be concentrated along the border directly east of Sumy in apparent battlefield preparations.

    Summary —

    Russian deep strikes clearly reverting to terror on civilians and not military targets. Sumy hit overnight and it may be another precursor to a rumored Russian offensive towards the city in the coming months. Demoralize your target and make them less likely to stand up and fight when the troops come.

    Combined with intensive air and artillery strikes to the east, intelligence indicators are lighting up for an attempted Russian offensive in the region.

    However, as noted under Russia above, Russia is suffering heavily to sustain the tempo under current levels, let alone gather the reserve forces necessary to launch a major offensive toward Sumy. Rumors are that Russia has accumulated 60K troops for the offensive. However, remember that monthly losses are running in the 45K range. That’s barely enough for one and a half months worth of attacks.

    putin may be desperate and denuded enough to demand another offensive in order to gain more leverage at the negotiation table.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Israel hits Hamas command center

    - IDF continues to expand control of Gaza.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

    Overnight, the Israeli army says it targeted a Hamas command center embedded within the Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City. The military says the compound was used by Hamas operatives to plan and carry out attacks on Israel and Israeli army troops. No casualties are reported in the strike since the Israeli army issued an early warning

    Airstrikes target two UNRWA schools in the Tuffah neighborhood, east of Gaza City

    After seizing control of the Morag axis and encircling Rafah, the Israeli army expands its operations in the Daraj and Tufah neighborhoods in Gaza.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    The Emirati newspaper “The National” reports, citing Mr. Abdel Aziz Sa’ar, director of the Persian Gulf Research Center, that the internationally recognized Yemeni government (as opposed to the Houthis) is currently recruiting 80,000 soldiers in preparation for a potential large-scale ground operation to seize Hodeidah province from the Houthis. The goal is to encircle the Houthis from all sides as a preparatory step toward capturing the capital.

    OBSERVATION - Answers question from a while back regarding houthis preparing for a ground attack

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    Turkish Foreign Minister: We call for a ceasefire in Gaza and to prevent Israel from committing mass massacres.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Israel hit a hospital that was housing a Hamas military operations center. Other reports include hitting two schools, being used as Hamas ops centers. This has been the typical MO for Hamas throughout its existence, subverting civilian facilities protected under international rules of war to hide in. Over the course of this war, it has almost been a given that hospitals and schools have been converted by Hamas for military use.

    Lebanon and Syria conditions are static.

    Yemen’s proper govt is looking to take advantage to the damage the US (and Israel) have inflicted on the Houthis to mount an effort to finish them off. The description of the desired operation matches that I posted earlier with questions if the US was going to do this. I strongly suspect that we’ll have special ops folks on the ground calling in airstrikes in support of the Yemeni forces if this operation kicks off. I don’t expect it to start for at least a month or more as it will take time to organize, arm and train these force.

    Iran - see below.


    Iran –
    - May 5th - end of negotiation window

    Indirect talks between the US and Iran were held over the course of about 3 hours. Each side spoke nicely about the ‘progress’ being made. There was an agreement to meet again next Saturday.

    OBSERVATION - Witkoff is an epic failure with these talks (in addition to those with Russia) and they have so far been a nothing burger. Iran is achieving exactly what it wants - delay and diffuse the US military threat on their nuclear program. These talks reportedly didn’t even begin to broach the issue. And for a window that is fast approaching closure, a pretty lackadaisical urgency.

    It almost seems that Witkoff is completely unaware of Trump’s policy goals toward Iran are. Trump continues to mass (at substantial cost) a large military force ready to hit Iran. Witkoff better get off his thumbs on this matter. Refusal to directly confront Iran on these issues projects an aura of weakness by the US and will only stimulate Iranian resistance to US demands.


  • Computer models have been accurately predicting climate change for 50 years

    04/12/2025 10:12:31 AM PDT · 67 of 88
    Godzilla to cuz1961

    What bovine excrement this. The models have den consistently demonstrated to be wrong. They cannot even model historical data without messing with the numbers

  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/12/2025 7:36:35 AM PDT · 392 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

    Forward Observer folks are reporting another “hands off” protest for Saturday, April 19th. IMHO, the last protest was underwhelming and seemed to lack certain enthusiasm with a lot of astroturfing needed.

    Still a plethora of other protests across the nation on a wide range of grievances. Low probability of violence, though there continues to be potential for some violence/vandalism locally. Maintain situational awareness.


    Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
    - Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April.

    ***
    Passover today as well as the start of Holy Week tomorrow (Palm Sunday thru Easter)


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    The stock markets finished the week higher as the pause in the tariff wars stabilized out.

    US wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in March by the most since October 2023 - Bloomberg

    Gold and Silver have rebounded over the past week, with gold reaching record highs.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    Democrats are planning to hold “Peoples’ Town Halls” in Republican districts during Congress’ Easter recess. This is in addition to having operatives disrupt republican town halls. It seems that the democrats have recovered from some of the shock of the Trump win and are leaning heavily into trying to win back at least the House next year.

    OBSERVATION - Note the use of the term “Peoples” Under communism the term is very commonly used - largely for propaganda purposes as the only ‘peoples’ were the party elite.

    ***
    After finding $382 million in fraudulent unemployment payments since 2020, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) identified California, New York and Massachusetts as the primary culprits.

    The three Democrat-led states accounted for $305 million in improper claim payments, DOGE said Thursday.

    The group added that California also accounted for 68% of the benefits that were dispensed under former President Joe Biden to parolees identified by federal authorities as being on the government’s terrorist watchlist, or who had criminal records.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dem-states-blame-most-nearly-400-million-unemployment-fraud

    OBSERVATION - Corruption like this has been so rampant that I am increasingly less surprised buy these revelations. People need to start going to jail.

    ***
    President Donald Trump announced deals Friday with five law firms that will allow them to avoid the prospect of punishing executive orders and require them to together provide hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of free legal services for causes his administration says it supports.

    The resolutions reflect the Republican president’s continued success in bending prominent law firms to his will as they seek to cut deals with his administration to avoid being targeted by White House sanctions like the ones confronting others in the legal community.

    The White House said that the firms of Kirkland & Ellis LLP, Allen Overy Shearman Sterling US LLP, Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP, and Latham & Watkins LLP would each provide $125 million in free legal work for causes including veterans affairs and combatting antisemitism. As part of the agreement, the administration agreed to withdraw letters from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission demanding information about whether the firms were engaged in discriminatory hiring practices.

    https://www.newsmax.com/politics/donald-trump-law-firms-executive-order/2025/04/11/id/1206649/

    OBSERVATION - Its gonna be a long 4 years for these law firms and hopefully much, much longer.

    ***
    The Supreme Court on April 8 blocked a lower court order that mandated the Trump administration to reinstate thousands of federal employees who were let go in mass firings meant to downsize the federal government.

    OBSERVATION - Slowly but surely the trend is swinging towards Trump on the legality of his EO’s on this as well as other items, such as deportations and DOGE efforts.


    TRUMP Watch –

    Trump had his annual physical and says he’s in great health. The official report is yet to be released.


    Illegal Immigration –

    Louisiana immigration judge rules that activist Columbia University graduate Mahmoud Khalil, who initiated anti-Israel protests on campus, can be deported, despite ongoing legal efforts by his lawyers. His legal team vows to continue fighting, with a federal case challenging his detention on free speech grounds.

    ***
    President Donald Trump said he is planning to withhold all federal funding from cities and states with sanctuary immigration policies.

    City attorneys and state attorneys general are prepared to mount legal challenges to Trump administration attempts to cut off federal funds.

    ***
    President Trump has just authorized the U.S. military to take control of federal land along the southern border.

    - 60 feet wide.
    - Stretching across California, Arizona & New Mexico.
    - Known as the Roosevelt Reservation.

    Brings any illegals captured along this portion of the border under military jurisdiction as this declaration essentially makes this a military base/training area.


    China -

    China has reached out to Europe and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for help to retaliate against the U.S.’ tariffs. With the exception of Spain, those requests have essentially been rebuffed

    On Wednesday, Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles announced that China had apparently made some trade overtures to Australia in response to President Trump’s smacking hefty tariffs on Chinese goods. Australia rejected China’s offer to work together to combat the tariffs.

    OBSERVATION - China is increasingly finding itself isolated in the tariff tiff with the US. China’s own bullying of these groups is coming back to haunt them.

    ***
    Unconfirmed reports that lots of Chinese factories have stopped production.

    In one instance a packaging box factory just stoped production, because of tariffs.

    China has a news blackout preventing confirmation, the information was published on a social media site.

    OBSERVATION - Media blackout by China is no surprise, but then by their silence, by nature, suggests that things are not going well. Their manufacturing sector has been built up on low priced labor and volume to the rest of the world. The carpet is being pulled out from under them. Watching to see if they try to dump items as below cost to these other nations, which would essentially force them into erecting their own tariffs against China.

    MORE THOUGHTS - How deep this economic crisis will hit will certainly impact Chinese preparations for any kind of action against Taiwan. Some analysts have taken a look at China’s strategic reserves of petroleum and compared it to strategic reserves being held by Taiwan. The analysis indicates that China will have the bulk of petroleum imports blockaded and that Taiwan has greater reserves with which to hold out longer than China. Additionally, Taiwan has a greater chance of getting supplies in during the period.

    Interesting analysis, but I think it misses one thing that China has historically driven the country to extreme measures of scarcity in order to support its larger goals - in this case trying to get Taiwan to capitulate. That could extend China’s endurance to a degree, but create other problems as well.

    Concern is that should this tariff war continue and start deeply impacting China and its economy, China may strike out against the west and Taiwan to divert attention from its internal problems as well as put stress against continued action by the US.


    Phillipines –

    The country has doubled its frigate production levels.


    Russia -

    *****
    Putin and Witkoff’s talks have ended. The meeting focused on aspects of Ukrainian settlement — Kremlin


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Russia launched 88 Shahed drones of which 56 were shot down, another 24 were lost in location without negative consequences. Presumably downed by electronic warfare.

    Russia drones targeted Kyiv, hitting the Sviatoshynskyi district. One warehouse caught fire, covering 1,500 m² — it’s now under control.

    Another blaze broke out at an industrial site, affecting two warehouse buildings (1,000 and 150 m²) with partial destruction — firefighting continues. At least two people were injured.

    Russian losses per 12/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

    +1240 men
    +11 tanks
    +7 AFVs
    +49 artillery
    +2 MLRS

    Summary —

    Moderately heavy fighting along the front, but no significant terrain gains by either.

    Drones continue to plague Ukraine as their air defenses struggle to adapt to the new Russian tactics.

    Witkoff’s round of talks continues to spin the wheels as Russia is just playing the game and has no intent to honestly pursue peace talks to their conclusion.


    Europe / NATO General –

    The U.K.’s HMS Price of Wales is leading a carrier strike group (CSG) composed of British, Canadian and Norwegian ships on an Indo-Pacific deployment. The CSG will conduct multi-carrier ops in the Mediterranean and transit the Red Sea en route to the Pacific.

    OBSERVATION - My guess is to operate in the S China Sea area.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Israel expands control over Gaza

    - Eyes on US / Iranian talks today

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

    Al-Qassam Brigades: We targeted the settlement of Nir Yitzhak with short-range Rajum rockets.
    Following the Hamas rocket fire from the southern Gaza Strip on the border community of Nir Yitzhak, the Israeli army issues an evacuation warning for Palestinians in the Khan Younis area

    ***
    Israel takes control of the Morag Corridor and encircles Rafah.

    Following the IDF’s capture of the Morag Corridor between southern Gaza’s Rafah and Khan Younis, Defense Minister Israel Katz calls on Palestinians to “remove Hamas and release all the hostages,” before the military expands its operations in the Strip. “This is the final moment to remove Hamas and release the hostages and bring about an end to the war,” Katz says in a statement. “The IDF has now completed the capture of the Morag Corridor that divides Gaza between Rafah and Khan Yunis, and makes the entire area between the Philadelphi Corridor and Morag part of the Israeli security zone,” he says, referring to the IDF’s buffer zone on the Gaza border.

    The importance of capturing the Morag Corridor:

    1. Cuts off a geographical part from Hamas and helps clear Rafah of terrorists.
    2. Shrinks the Gaza Strip.
    3. Prevents smuggling from Egypt and eliminates future use of the Rafah crossing.
    4. Allows the IDF to more easily search for tunnels.
    5. Another card for hostage negotiations.
    6. Allows for the next big step in the Gaza Strip, if approved by the political echelon. That is, more active military action.

    Israeli security source: The IDF is close to controlling 30% of the Gaza Strip to pressure Hamas, and intends to control 50% if there is no progress in the negotiations.

    An IDF spokesman in Arabic informs residents in Khan Yunis neighborhoods to evacuate their homes before an IDF attack following the identification of the source of the firing of 3 rockets earlier today into Israeli territory.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    AFP, citing a Lebanese security source: The army has dismantled most of Hezbollah’s military positions in the southern Litani region, in cooperation with UNIFIL.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    Israel intercepted a drone fired by the Houthis overnight, was intercepting it over the area of the Dead Sea.

    The US military carried out at least 29 strikes against Houthi targets in the provinces of Sana’a, Hodeidah and Abar last night.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Gaza - with every Hamas rocket or related attack, IDF takes control over the neighborhoods those attacks originated from. Already, Israel has physical control of more of Gaza than before the Phase 1 ceasefire. It is essentially being able to move forward with little to no resistance by Hamas et al.

    Lebanon - I don’t believe the claim that they’ve disarmed and removed Hezbollah from the region south of the Litani River. Otherwise economic pressure from the US would not be necessary. IMHO this is propaganda in an effort to keep money flowing into the country.

    Syria - Continued stable but friction with Turkey is still a major concern and covered under Turkey below.

    Houthis continue to get hammered

    US talks with Iran start today, see Iran below.


    Iran –
    - May 5th - end of negotiation window

    Iranian state TV reporting that the delegations will be in separate rooms, with Omani officials relaying messages between them

    OBSERVATION - Witkoff is showing signs of weakness and capitulation in some arenas. It seems that Iran is being allowed to drive key parts of the agenda. Focused on countering Trumps demand to eliminate the nuclear weapon production program. Iran is also trying to turn this into a demand for Israel to eliminate its own nuclear weapons.

    Iran has demonstrated it will weasel word and squirm through any kind of an ‘agreement’. Hopefully Witkoff will not be drawn into Iran’s deceitful negotiations. He has to hold the line. Iran was only brought to these talks because it is the weakest its been in years and that the US is staging a very large attack force at its borders who, along with Israel, will eliminate the nuclear program.

    Iran’s only hope at the moment is to delay such a strike with pseudo offers of peace and disarmament (if they go that far), under which they will likely covertly accelerate the enrichment of uranium to the 90% level and create a bomb.


    Turkey –

    Erdogan in a message to Israel:

    We cannot let the opportunity for change in Syria be wasted—we refuse to turn a blind eye.
    Syria has endured enough war. Anyone looking to drag it back into conflict should think twice.
    Our patience and commitment to dialogue must not be mistaken for weakness.
    Our silence should not give rise to dangerous illusions.

    https://x.com/osint613/status/1910682186417594423?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

    OBSERVATIONS - Turkey is taking Iran’s place at the power to directly threaten Israel. A lot of talk so far. Turkey has a ton of military equipment, but Israel have a far better honed blade to wield in its defense. This does little to defuse tensions with Israel.

    ***
    Turkish President Erdogan:

    Türkiye must take its rightful seat in the European Union without further delay.

    OBSERVATION - The EU correctly (for once) is holding Turkey’s ascension to EU membership at bay because of the radical islamic govt of Erdogan.


  • Threat Matrix 2025

    04/11/2025 6:43:04 AM PDT · 389 of 442
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

    Weekend approaching and a lot of scattered protests across the country. Many target Tesla, Gaza, DOGE etc. Low probability for violence, though local acts can occur. Keep situationally aware this weekend if you are in areas prone to protests or protests are announced for your area.

    ***
    Growing attention to the large, Islamic enclave growing in the Sugarland TX region and their aggressive efforts to impose Shriah law on the residents . Federal investigators looking at laws being broken as well as civil rights violations.


    Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
    - Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
    - Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April.

    ***
    Passover is this Saturday as well as the start of Holy Week (Palm Sunday thru Easter)


    Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

    WARNING - still more rough waters for the stock/bond markets as the week ends

    ***
    US Inflation Declines to 2.4% for the First Time Since September

    ***
    U.S. stock index futures were turning slightly higher after falling Friday on the news China increased its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, escalating a trade war that could disrupt global trade and trigger an economic downturn.

    Yesterday, the Dow lost roughly 1,000 points, closing down 2.5%.

    Gold reached new highs yesterday, silver is continuing to recover.

    OBSERVATIONS - Stocks will continue to be bouncy today as now the tariff war narrows down to essentially US v China.

    ***
    (FO) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. making new trade deals with allies will lay the groundwork for a unified trade front against China. Bessent also warned the EU that turning to China in the U.S.-China trade war would be “cutting your own throat.”

    OBSERVATIONS - Analysts are noting that the US and China have started a ‘hard’ decoupling of trade. The US cutting off China supply to start becoming internally sustainable and to build a hedge around china by other nations to contain it as well. China increased the tariff today and expect Trump to retaliate even more. See more under China below.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    The Vinson CSG has entered CENTCOM AoR. Expect a few more days until reaching their deployment areas.

    ***
    The Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), Admiral Samuel J. Paparo revealed today in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee that an entire U.S. Army “Patriot” Missile Battalion, consisting of 4-6 MIM-104 “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missile Batteries, was recently transferred from his area-of-responsibility to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). Admiral Paparo further revealed that the transfer, which appears to be wrapping up according to flight trackers, required approximately 73 C-17 Globemaster III flights from Asia to the Middle East.

    OBSERVATION - Confirmation of the large numbers of cargo flights that have been reported over the past week. Note this is a BATTALION deployment - 4 to 6 batteries of Patriots.

    ***
    At least 6 U.S. Air Force F-15E “Strike Eagles” from RAF Lakenheath arrived yesterday at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, as the pre-positioning of military assets continues.

    ***
    Colonel Susan Meyers, the Commanding Officer of the 821st Space Base Group, which overseeing Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, has been removed from command for “loss of confidence in her ability to lead” spurred by a base-wide email she sent on March 31st, days after a visit to the base by Vice-President JD Vance

    in which she attempted to distance herself from several controversial statements made by the Vice-President.

    In the email, Colonel Meyers appeared to push back against several statements made during the visit by Vice-President Vance critical of Denmark and Greenland, stating, “I spent the weekend thinking about Friday’s visit — the actions taken, the words spoken, and how it must have affected each of you. I do not presume to understand current politics, but what I do know is the concerns of the U.S. administration discussed by Vice-President Vance on Friday are not reflective of Pituffik Space Base.” Adding, “I commit that, for as long as I am lucky enough to lead this base, all of our flags will fly proudly — together,” in an apparent attempt towards unity for the thousands of Danes, Greenlanders, Americans who work at Pituffik.

    OBSERVATION - As a veteran, I am totally appalled by the action of this colonel. When slick willie won the presidency, it was made very clear there will be no bad mouthing - even though the military was solidly against his election. She should be losing her bird over this as well.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    Congress active on getting budget passed, as well as other legislation regarding citizen voting and others. Movement forward on reigning in district judges may be what is stimulating the USSC to interject in these lawfare suits and national TROs by activist judges.


    Illegal Immigration –

    A federal judge on Thursday sided with the Trump administration by ruling that every migrant who is in the United States illegally must register with the federal government

    The Department of Homeland Security announced in February that all illegal migrants will be required to register with the government, and that those who did not could face fines or prosecution.

    Judge Trevor Neil McFadden agreed that all illegal migrants over the age of 13 need to register, according to the Associated Press. Those migrants will need to provide fingerprints and their addresses. The registration process will also include people in the country illegally for more than 30 days, such as Canadians who come south for the winter.

    https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/federal-judge-rules-every-illegal-migrant-us-must-register-federal-government

    OBSERVATION - Will illegals willingly submit? Unlikely most will not, but this does provide an addition tool for deporting and once word gets out, after a few example cases, self deportation may rise. Note the 30 day limit for Canadian snowbirds - hmmmmm.


    China -

    U.S. tariffs on China have now reached a total of 145% - White House.

    ***
    China’s Finance Ministry: “The U.S. imposition of abnormally high tariffs on China seriously violates international and economic trade rules, basic economic laws and common sense and is completely unilateral bullying and coercion.”

    OBSERVATION - China trying to paint itself as the victim in this tariff war.


    North/South Korea –

    North Korea plans to send “thousands” of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, says U.S. INDOPACOM Commander Adm. Paparo. These missiles are known to be highly inaccurate and could hit civilian targets.

    OBSERVATION - This will likely generate additional sanctions on both NK and Russia.


    Russia -

    Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff has reportedly landed in Russia’s St. Petersburg and is expected to meet President Putin today.

    If no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month, Trump could move forward with additional sanctions on Russia either through executive power or by asking Congress to pass new sanctions legislation, a source familiar with the issue told Axios.

    Logistics –

    North Korea plans to send “thousands” of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, says U.S. INDOPACOM Commander Adm. Paparo. These missiles are known to be highly inaccurate and could hit civilian targets.

    OBSERVATION - Russia’s deeper attacks have not been specifically towards only military targets, but have been very liberal towards clearly civilian targets. This has begun a new terroristic war in an effort to demoralize Ukraine while they drag out any ceasefire talks. So they care very little about ‘accuracy’ at this stage.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

    RUMINT –

    BBC reporting that Russia plans to encircle Sumy in an upcoming offensive.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Overnight, Russia launched 39 Shahed drones at Ukraine. A total of 24 were shot down and another 13 were lost in location without negative consequences or were suppressed by electronic warfare means.

    Russian losses per 11/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

    +1210 men
    +1 tanks
    +15 AFVs
    +61 artillery
    +1 MLRS

    Summary —

    Relatively low numbers of drones launched, and moderately heavy fighting along the front.

    I know I’ve discussed Russia’s lack of troops and equipment for any upcoming offensive, and the rumors that Russia intends to encircle Sumy just raises it to the surface again. In 2022, Russia had a degree of surprise, relatively well trained troops and fully equipped mechanized forces when they nearly encircled Sumy. Today, the situation is very different. With well over 900K casualties and Russia fielding more and more T62 and T54/55 vintage tanks as well as post WW2 MTLV apc as well as 1950 vintage pick up trucks to carry personnel, Russia is no position to mount the size of an attack necessary to even come close to encircling Sumy.

    Another factor is Ukrainian readiness. The Kursk attack was along one of the main axis such a Sumy assault would occur along, there will be no surprise assault. Ukraine still holds a much smaller area, but still smack dab in the middle to such an axis. Secondly, Ukraine is still maintaining the drone advantage which has decimated smaller, battalion sized Russian armor/mechanized assaults in the recent months.

    Finally, Russia has to scrape up enough soldiers and equipment for what will need to be a substantial force to accomplish this. Currently, they are just able to meet numbers necessary to replace losses. (40K-60K per month).

    Some other, related talk suggests that Russia want to at least gain enough terrain to spring board demands that Ukraine surrender the rest of the Oblast to it via these ‘peace’ talks.


    Europe / NATO General –

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a 90-day postponement of the EU’s countermeasures against Trump’s tariffs

    NOTE - Hungary has already threatened to veto such an action.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - IDF continues to take more terrain in Gaza

    - Forces at high alert as Passover comes

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has raised the IDF’s level of alert, and the presence of combat troops, ahead of the Passover holiday.

    ***
    The International Court of Justice, a U.N. agency in The Hague, set five days of public hearings, starting late this month, in the U.N. General Assembly’s case against Israel for banning the U.N. Relief and Works Agency.

    One of the Israeli laws banned UNRWA, whose ties to Gazan terror groups Israel has documented, from operating in the Jewish state, including throughout Jerusalem. The United Nations considers part of the Jewish capital to be Palestinian territory.

    The Israeli law mandated that all UNRWA facilities, including administrative offices, schools and health clinics, be shuttered. Earlier this week, Israeli authorities gave six UNRWA educational institutions in Jerusalem notice that they will be closed in 30 days.

    The other Israeli law forbids officials of the Jewish state from communicating with UNRWA officials. The United Nations has said that these developments will make it very hard, if not impossible, for UNRWA to carry out its work in Gaza. UNRWA operates under a mandate from the U.N. General Assembly.

    https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/

    OBSERVATION - UNRWA collusion with Hamas has been very well documented since the war with Hamas began. UN failure to recognize this - in fact going as far as to try to cover it up - doesn’t lend credibility either.

    ***
    Rumors of a new hostage release / ceasefire plan.

    ——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

    The IDF calls on residents of the Shuja’iyah and Zeitoun neighborhoods and the areas east of Gaza City to evacuate immediately.

    IDF forces in Rafah eliminated Ahmed Iyad Muhammad Farhat, Hamxs’s top sniper in the Tel Sultan battalion. Over the past 24 hours, Israeli forces have intensified operations across Gaza, killing multiple terrorists and targeting terror infrastructure.

    Several Israeli airstrikes targeted areas in the Shuja’iyya and al-Tuffah neighborhoods of Gaza City.

    Warplanes launched a raid on the Al-Manara neighborhood, south of Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    The US has closed in on the Lebanese government: it is blocking financial aid from Saudi Arabia and Qatar until Hezbollah is disbanded, Lebanon’s foreign minister confirms.

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    See Turkey on talks with Israel to deconflict incidents over/in Syria.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    Houthis continued to get pounded and their military responses are getting further apart.

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    Russia’s representative to the Security Council: - We are concerned about Israeli statements regarding military plans to remain in Syria indefinitely. - Israel’s actions are a violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, regardless of who rules in Damascus.

    ***
    US Central Command announced that the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, with a fleet of F-35 aircraft, has arrived in its area of ​​responsibility in the Middle East and is operating in parallel with the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman. It is expected that it will take a couple more days before it is in an optimal station to launch against either the Houthis or Iran.

    ——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

    Gaza continues to see IDF take more ground. Action is methodical because engineering elements are going forward first to eliminate IEDs and other bomb/booby traps Hamas was seen to be installing in previous months. Hamas has not been challenging IDF on the ground. Israel now reportedly controls over 30% of Gaza.

    Lebanon is about to feel the pinch of FO stage of failing to aggressively disarm and remove Hezbollah from the region south of the Litiani River. Money was one of the carrots offered to the govt to get this done, and it has failed.

    Syria is relatively stable, but Israeli / Turkish talks are starting out rough. See Syria on activation of large tent cities to house Gazan refugees.

    Iran - see below.


    Iran –
    - May 5th - end of negotiation window

    Iran is threatening to expel IAEA inspectors and cut ties with the UN nuclear watchdog. - Reuters

    ***
    Iran is considering proposing an interim nuclear deal with the U.S. as a means to buy more time than the two-month deadline set by President Donald Trump, Axios reported Thursday.

    Trump on Wednesday repeated his threat to use military force if Iran did not agree to end its nuclear program. Trump set the two-month deadline in a letter last month to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
    Iran, however, does not think two months is enough time to put together a comprehensive deal, according to the report.

    https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/iran-nuclear-talks/2025/04/10/id/1206479/

    OBSERVATION - As noted previously, delay, delay, delay is the word here with Iran. They are whining that two months (actually only one month left) is too short of a period to come to an agreement. Note that they’ve been playing the negotiation game for over 4 years, even into Trump 45 years. Trump wants to have the appearance of being ‘fair’ and will listen to their ‘offer’, but it is unlikely that it will go far enough to warrant further discussions.

    Iran’s intransigence is also reflected by the recent threat to expel IAEA inspectors and cut ties with the UN nuclear watchdog. These clowns would be a key component to any US / Iran agreement to monitor for compliance. Iran has them wrapped around their little finger and has gotten away with a ton of violations of the current ‘agreements’.

    US buildup in the region continues as the USS Vinson’ CSG is almost ready to go. As noted, more fighter / bomber assets are arriving in the region. The deployment of a Patriot BATTALION is also very significant.

    I think that Iran’s wiggle room time is running out. Trump wants to get this problem dealt with early and quickly. Prolonged negotiations that will go nowhere are not on his checklist. He may go past the current estimate May 5 deadline, but not much more IMHO.


    Syria -

    Two massive tent cities in northern Syria, near the Turkish border, are being repurposed to resettle hundreds of thousands of Gazans through Turkish and Qatari efforts, according to Syrian sources. The two camps, one between Al-Bab and Akhtarin, and the other east of Azaz, were originally built during the Syrian civil war to keep displaced Syrians from entering Turkish territory

    OBSERVATION - Getting Gazans out of Gaza is a key component in the US / Israeli plan for taking out Hamas completely. There are nearly 2 million in Gaza who are being pushed into an ever decreasing area. Large numbers of them must be cleared out of the territory so that Israel can focus down on the remaining Hamas forces.


    Turkey –

    Israel and Turkey failed to reach a deal on preventing conflict in Syria during their first round of talks, Kan News reports.

    Follow-on rounds are being scheduled.


    Mexico -

    President Trump just announced that he is tired of Mexico violating their treaty with Texas and stealing their water and “that ends now!”

    Here’s what he announced:

    Mexico OWES Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water under the 1944 Water Treaty, but Mexico is unfortunately violating their Treaty obligation. This is very unfair, and it is hurting South Texas Farmers very badly. Last year, the only Sugar Mill in Texas CLOSED, because Mexico has been stealing the water from Texas Farmers. Ted Cruz has been leading the fight to get South Texas the water it is owed, but Sleepy Joe refused to lift a finger to help the Farmers.

    THAT ENDS NOW! I will make sure Mexico doesn’t violate our Treaties, and doesn’t hurt our Texas Farmers. Just last month, I halted water shipments to Tijuana until Mexico complies with the 1944 Water Treaty. My Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, is standing up for Texas Farmers, and we will keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEY ARE OWED!

    https://therightscoop.com/breaking-president-trump-says-he-will-force-mexico-to-stop-violating-treaty-with-texas/

    OBSERVATION - Mexico may be seeing another ‘find out’ moment here. IF I were Trump, I’d also would trap the raw sewage being pumped into the US and send it back to Mexico as well.