Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Heads up. Saturday I don’t expect to have the time to produce a report.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***

Efforts are increasing to rally leftists and anarchists to Washington DC to interrupt the military parade and other activities on June 14th. This is set to be one of those big, juicy targets violent agitators look for. Large crowds and a bonus being Trump’s birthday. I would expect many attempts to disrupt the parade with growing violence as night falls. This is developing.
(SPECIAL NOTE - My plans are to be camping that weekend, I’ll have limited posting ability that week)

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

Federal authorities in Detroit on Tuesday announced charges against a Chinese scholar at the University of Michigan and her boyfriend, a scientific researcher, for allegedly conspiring to smuggle a dangerous biological pathogen into the U.S.—a pathogen capable of damaging agricultural crops and causing illness in humans and livestock.

University of Michigan scholar Yunqing Jian, 33, and her boyfriend, Zunyong Liu, 34, both Chinese citizens, were charged in a criminal complaint with conspiracy, smuggling goods into the U.S., making false statements, and visa fraud, interim Detroit U.S. Attorney Jerome F. Gorgon Jr. announced.

“The alleged actions of these Chinese nationals— including a loyal member of the Chinese Communist Party—are of the gravest national security concerns,” U.S. Attorney Jerome F. Gorgon Jr. said in his statement. “These two aliens have been charged with smuggling a fungus that has been described as a ‘potential agroterrorism weapon’ into the heartland of America, where they apparently intended to use a University of Michigan laboratory to further their scheme.”

It is further alleged that Jian’s boyfriend, Liu, works at a Chinese university where he conducts research on the same pathogen and that he first lied but then admitted to smuggling Fusarium graminearum through Detroit Metropolitan Airport so that he could conduct research on it at the laboratory at the University of Michigan where Jian worked.

https://endoftheamericandream.com/why-did-2-chinese-nationals-try-to-smuggle-an-agroterrorism-weapon-into-the-u-s-that-could-devastate-our-food-supply/#google_vignette

FBI Director Kash Patel:

I can confirm that the FBI arrested a Chinese national within the United States who allegedly smuggled a dangerous biological pathogen into the country.

The individual, Yunqing Jian, is alleged to have smuggled a dangerous fungus called “Fusarium graminearum,” which is an agroterrorism agent, into the U.S. to research at the University of Michigan, where she works.

Evidence also indicates Jian had expressed loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party and had received funding from the Chinese government for similar work on this pathogen in China.

OBSERVATION - Irregular warfare by the author of such - China. This is a nasty fungus in asia and these CCP affiliates were wanting to share it with us. This is the tip of the iceberg as to why Trump is ordering the revocation of education visas for Chinese nationals here in the US.

RELATED VIEW - “The Chinese have been amping up their gray zone war against the United States, infiltrating our telecommunications system, futzing around with our civilian infrastructure control systems, harassing our allies, and now, apparently, preparing for a bioterrorist attack on the United States which, I assume, would be hard to prove was their doing if it came off. Fungi, after all, are natural.”

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2025/06/04/chinese-bioterrorism-n3803435

***
Islamist Hassan Chokr, 35, from Dearborn, Michigan, plotted a mas*acre at a Jewish daycare and tried to illegally obtain assault weapons after threatening preschoolers. While out on bail, he drove through the parking lot of Temple Beth El near Detroit, shouting threats at families.

On May 28, he pleaded guilty to federal gun charges. Prosecutors say his attempted gun purchase was part of a broader plan to carry out his threats against Jewish children and their parents. Authorities believe he was preparing to follow through with a targeted terror attack.
(New York Post)

OBSERVATION - Another lone wolf style of an attack. His behavior noted above would not be expected from an islamic terror cell, who’d keep their OPSEC and strike in a more organized manner.
Dearborn MI has essentially been taken over by islamists.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. Army has met its recruiting goal 4 months ahead of schedule—with 61,000 contracts signed.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Elon Musk on X -

“I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore.
This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.
Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.”

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1929954109689606359

OBSERVATION - As analysis of this bill comes out, it becomes apparent that way too many of the DOGE identified wasteful spending and recommended cuts were NOT incorporated into this bill. It is appearing that more lipstick has been put on the pig to pass it off as some kind of republican victory. USAID, NPR, PBS, etc are still being funded for example.

China -

China is undergoing an unprecedented series of economic, demographic and medical disasters. In the last three years there’s been a 20 percent drop in American imports from China. The Chinese economy is producing less because the population is declining and the national health system is trying to cope with continued covid19 deaths, some of it from a botched Covid vaccine that is not working and often killing people. The government denies this and threatens any Chinese reporters or health officials who speak out on what is happening.

https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/china/articles/2025060401759.aspx#google_vignette

***
China’s manufacturing sector contracted in May for the first time in eight months, to its lowest level since September 2022. The drop was driven by the sharpest decline in new orders in over two years and continued weakness in export orders, and reflects the ongoing pressure from U.S. tariffs—despite a temporary trade truce.

OBSERVATIONS - I’ve been noting for quite a while that China’s economy has been hurting since wuhan came to town. The two pieces above bring that out again. Xi is having to deal with an economic crisis, trade war and expensive build up in an effort to seize Taiwan as well as islands in the S China Sea region.
Some say the best remedy for a poor economy is a war. Just hope Xi doesn’t take that to heart.

ADDITIONALLY - These woes may go to solidify a blockade of Taiwan as the preferred means to gain submission, versus a massive amphibious assault. To China, seizing Taiwan’s high tech sector with out being destroyed would outweigh the potential impacts of global sanctions in response as well as likely naval skirmishes to break the blockade. China may see this as less ‘expensive’ than a direct assault.

North/South Korea –

With leftist winning the SK presidency, the expectation is that the country will greatly soften its stance towards NK, China and Russia, in particular falling more into China’s influence. This is key for China as potential action against Taiwan looms on the horizon and SK’s previous govt was hostile towards Chinese aggression in the region. They hope SK will back down from regional pushback to China.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Latest round of talks with Ukraine continue to be nothing burgers.

Kerch Bridge update –

Following yesterdays attack on the bridge, it was closed for several hours as debris was removed from the road deck. Russian reports that the structural integrity of the targeted bridge pylon was intact and traffic resumed.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 90s mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force shot down 61 Russian Shahed drones overnight (June 3–4), out of 95 launched by Russia from multiple directions

Russian losses per 04/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1020 men
+3 tanks
+7 AFVs
+88 artillery

Sumy -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Kindrativka of Sumy region and Ridkodub in Donetsk region of Ukraine

Summary —

Much of Ukraine is on edge waiting for Russia’s response to the attacks this week. Some speculate the use of the Oreshnik, along with other ballistic missiles is pending.

A significant Russian response is even more expected following the attempt to take down the Kersch Strait bridge yesterday. No apparent damage to the bridge pylon, but the fact that Ukraine could get so much explosive that close to the bridge should be causing Russian planners to worry greatly. Hunch is that the explosives were placed on a semi-submersible drone, judging on the fact that the explosion was exclusively water based. If this is the case, the Black Sea Fleet is no longer safe in its Russia harbors, since Russia had surrounded the bridge with significant air and sea surveillance system to prevent what just happened.

Should Ukraine finally get its hands on the larger, German cruise missiles designed for these types of targets, expect another attempt on the bridge.

More gaines in the Sumy sector. Ukraine likely conducting a delaying action while forces form up on the first line of defense closer to the city. Evidence is that Russia is having to fight to gain the ground, so Ukraine isn’t backing down on the present defense.

Russian Shahed attacks continues with fewer droned, yet better penetration results, largely due to tactics and drone modifications. Recent attacks are also focusing more on eastern areas of Ukraine, with less dense ADA coverage.

Talks between Ukraine and Russia continue to be a joke, as it is evident Russia just playing in a game to frustrate and demoralize Ukraine and Trump.

Europe / NATO General –

Conservative politician Geert Wilders pulled his party from the ruling coalition in the Netherlands.
Wilders’ Party (PVV) left the coalition in a dispute over the government’s position on asylum.

Wilders’ move will likely bring new elections in a few months, leaving the Dutch with a caretaker government.

OBSERVATIONS - Locked in a struggle with the globalist left, Wilder may see this as an opportunity to swing more of the parliament to the right, given recent violence by immigrants on citizens.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel strikes Syrian targets following rocket attack.

- Gaza action continues to be intense.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF ordered more areas to be evacuated as the offensive progresses.

Reports that clan warlords have issued a statement to Hamas to surrender, give up the hostages and remove themselves. They say the war has disproportionately hurt the people in their clans.

OBSERVATION - Clans in Gaza have played a key role in Hamas’s keeping control over the civilian population - primarily due to financial incentives to the clan leadership. Growing clan discontentment is evidence that Hamas’ controls are eroding. Israel had early on in the war reached out to clan heads to push back against Hamas. Perhaps the fruit of this outreach is starting to be seen.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Saudi Al-Hadath Channel:
The Lebanese Foreign Minister informed the Iranian Foreign Minister, during his visit to Beirut today, that there will be no reconstruction of Lebanon before Hezbollah is disarmed.

OBSERVATION - Pretty bold, but could only be done given the collapse of Hezbollah / Iran in the region.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli warplanes launched a series of airstrikes on military sites in southern Syria on Tuesday night, hours after two rockets were fired towards Israeli positions in the occupied Golan Heights in an attack claimed by an armed group called the Martyr Muhammad al-Deif Brigades IAF carried out two airstrikes on Tal al-Mal in Syria’s southern Daraa Governorate. Additionally, airstrikes have targeted the 175th Artillery Regiment in the town of Azraa Israeli artillery also targeted the vicinity of the village of Koya in the Daraa countryside.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthis fired a ballistic missile towards central Israel which was successfully intercepted.

NOTE - There have been no attacks on shipping in the Red Sea region since the US pullout. Shippers remain skeptical over the lack of attacks and continue to route ships around Africa.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Reports that the US warned France and Saudi Arabia against recognizing Palestinian state at UN conference scheduled for later this month.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Operations in Gaza continue unabated. Hamas is struggling to pull together a united leadership corps again. All of the senior leaders - about a dozen - at the start of the war are now dead, and hamas is having to reach back to the deep bench for replacement. Combine leadership confusing with greatly degraded combat leaders and comms and you have a situation where not only is Hamas unable to address hostage releases and cease fire, but unable to effective fight the IDF.

IDF strikes on Syria are a warning that Israel will not tolerate terror in that country directed against Israel, especially coming from S Syria. Syrian supporters bleat that Israel can’t hold Syria’s feet to the fire because their military capabilities have been denigrated and armed presence in S Syria been rebuffed. I suspect Syria got the message though and will make efforts to put further growth of these newbie terror groups down. They can see how Israel handles Hezbollah, they can see that Israel will do the same with them.

Iran - see below.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

Iran is strengthening its air defense systems amid preparations for the possibility of an American or Israeli attack on the country’s nuclear infrastructure should nuclear negotiations fail, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

“We are witnessing an impressive improvement in the capabilities and competence of the country’s air defense system,” Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Baqeri reportedly said in May, adding that Iran’s military has seen a “multi-fold increase in investments.”

According to Western intelligence assessments and security analysts’ investigation of satellite imagery, Iran appears to have relocated several anti-aircraft missile launchers to positions close to key nuclear sites like Natanz and Fordow, the report says.

A significant portion of Iran’s most advanced anti-aircraft missiles and radar systems - including its long-range Russian S-300 systems - were destroyed or damaged during Israeli air strikes on the country in October and April 2024, the FT states.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-856332#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - As warned, Iran’s delay tactics on the nuclear talks was designed, in part, to permit it to try to rebuild defenses for a follow on attack. Israel’s Oct 2024 air strikes showed how vulnerable Iran’s ADA network is. Iran pulling together bits and pieces of what was left from that attack is not surprising. How effective this new patchwork will be is another matter.
NOTE - JPost has been relatively pro-Iran of late, participating in a misinformation effort to try to force a split between Netanyahu and Trump. By hurrahing Irans efforts to restore air defense is likely a follow on, to deter favorable public opinion for a strike.

***
Iranian President Pezeshkian says Tehran will not yield to U.S. pressure to dismantle its nuclear program.

***
Khamenei:

“Who are you to tell Tehran whether we should have a nuclear program or not?
The US nuclear proposal is 100% against the principle of our power.
U.S. will not be able to weaken our nuclear programme.
Tehran will not abandon its uranium enrichment work.”

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Iran’s rejection of US terms and hard line by Khamenei should pretty well wrap up any further negotiations and things should progress to the ‘unpleasant’ side of negotiations. Even Witkoff is noting that further negotiations will be unproductive.

Iran’s military continues to talk tough towards the US and Israel and threatens massive retaliation for any strike. These threats are viewed by some in the light of the generally unsuccessful attacks by Iran against Israel. The involvement of the US opens up a new can of worms, in that Iran may see itself justified in striking US friendly gulf nations, closing the Straits of Hormuz and attempting attacks out side of the middle east.

A combined US/Israel strike would likely be seen as a threat to the existence of the Islamic regime, causing them to activate a much larger response - especially against the US.

Iran’s chest beating is not unlike previous episodes before and after attacking Israel. A key element is Iran still has the capability to try to pullout a preemptive strike. Most likely towards Israel. I think if such a strike is conducted, it will stay away from US assets unless it thinks it can get away with it due to Trump inaction. That would be a very dangerous assumption on Iran’s part.

CURRENTLY, I’m not seeing any open source indicators of an impending spike against Iran, such as deployment of more assets to the region, like the USS Nimitz CSG. However, most of the assets deployed to the region are still pretty much in place. Key drawdowns that need to be addressed is the return of the Truman and the B2s back to the US. US strategic bomber assets can attack from the US if necessary and have in the past, but the turn around times are horrendous. The Nimitz is nearly 1 - 2 weeks away from CENTCOM. So some strategic assets better be moved IMHO back into the region.

Heads up. Saturday I don’t expect to have the time to produce a report.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***

Thursday again and the weekend out look for protests has changed little from previous weeks. Add to the mix a lot more LGBT related events. Anti-Israel / pro-hamas themes are heating up and could locally generated acts of violence. As with previous posts - keep situationally aware.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

This week, President Donald Trump’s border czar said that he is “convinced” there will be a major terrorist attack in the United States as a direct result of former President Joe Biden’s open border policies.

“It’s coming,” Homan said in an interview on Fox News, adding that there were 2 million “got aways” who crossed the border during Biden’s tenure.
“Why did 2 million illegal aliens pay more to get away?” Homan told Hannity. “They could have paid half of what they paid to cross the border, turn themselves in to Border Patrol agents, get released that same day, get a free airline ticket to the city of their choice, get a free hotel room, get three meals a day, plus free medical care and work authorization.”

“Two million people paid more to get away,” he added. “They didn’t want to be vetted. They didn’t want to be fingerprinted. Why?”

“This scares the hell out of me and I’ve been doing this for 40 years. It should have scared the hell out of every American what the Biden administration did,” he continued.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/madelineleesman/2025/06/04/homan-gives-a-grim-warning-about-a-possible-terror-attack-n2658076#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - This has been the great concern over the past years. Even smaller cells/groups could create massive mayhem, let alone 2 million. This concern in the post 9/11 world is in part what drove the development of the Threat Matrix thread. So far we’ve been lucky - mostly lone wolf style attacks. However, the burner is getting hotter and should things really fire up against Iran I expect IRGC affiliated cells get activated.

***
A suspected accomplice in the bombing of a fertility clinic in Palm Springs, CA last month was arrested yesterday at Kennedy airport in New York.

The man was identified as Daniel Park of Washington state, three people familiar with the matter told NBC News.

The FBI and Port Authority police arrested Park on a federal warrant out of California, two sources said. He is expected to make his initial court appearance Wednesday afternoon in Brooklyn federal court.

Park is accused of shipping approximately 180 pounds of ammonium nitrate to the bomber, who was identified by officials as 25-year-old Guy Bartkus, Essayli said. Ammonium nitrate is commonly used as a precursor to construct homemade bombs. The U.S. attorney said Park shares Bartkus’ extremist beliefs…

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/06/04/suspected-accomplice-arrested-in-palm-springs-bombing-n3803457

OBSERVATION - Again, this was focused around a fringe ideology called pro-Mortalism or Efiliism (life spelled backwards) which essentially believes all life on earth should go extinct.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Conservatives and MAGA elements recoiling at the funding bill moving thru congress, trying to find any kind of silver lining. Musk’s rejection of it has hit a nerve and the do nothing congress is facing heat.

Illegal Immigration –

Trump tonight signed a proclamation banning entrance into the United States for individuals from over a dozen countries, citing concerns related to national security, with the countries including:
- Afghanistan
- Burma
- Chad
- Republic of the Congo
- Equatorial Guinea
- Eritrea
- Haiti
- Iran
- Libya
- Somalia
- Sudan
Yemen

With travel and visa access being restricted for several other countries, which include:
- Burundi
- Cuba
- Laos
- Sierra Leone
- Togo
- Turkmenistan
- Venezuela

OBSERVATION - Similar to the restriction he put in place during his first term.

North/South Korea –

North Korea will continue to support Russia in its war against Ukraine, said Kim Jong-un during a meeting with Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Secretary of the Security Council.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Putin rejects high-level meeting with Zelensky, calls Ukrainian authorities “terrorists” and says “no one talking to terrorists”. Rejects ceasefire for 30 days

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 90s mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 103 attack drones and a ballistic missile targeting Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa regions. Ukrainian defenses downed 74 drones; 28 shot down, 46 jammed. Strikes hit 16 locations.

Russian losses per 05/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+930 men
+3 tanks
+2 AFVs
+39 artillery
+4 MLRS
+1 AD system

Drone strike follow up.

OSINT elements have pretty much confirmed the following losses (destroyed/damaged)

Tu-95 Bear bomber: 14
Tu-22 Backfire bomber: 16 (+- 1)
An-12 Cub transport: 1
A-50 Mainstay AWACS: 2 (though suspected of being out of service already)
Il-78 Tanker: 1

Summary —

Discussion and analysis on the drone strike continue, but growing consensus is Russia sustained a serious hit.

Ukraine is on edge wondering how Russia will retaliate for the recent successful attacks.

Russian drones did more damage to civilian areas overnight as Ukraine ADA struggles to adjust to newer tactics and modifications.

Ground combat numbers indicate much lighter levels of fighting, but observed losses of terrain by Ukraine suggest that these numbers cold be questionable. Russia continues to press the Sumy axis as well as Ukraine forces doggedly holding out in Kursk.

Continued rumors on the build up of a Russian offensive force, and if these lowered casualties numbers are indeed valid, could permit Russia to build up some sort of force, rather than throw them at the front.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hostage bodies recovered

- Israel increases control of Gaza to 40%

- US vetos UNSC resolution to demand Israel stop operations in Gaza.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The bodies of the late hostages Gadi Hagai and Judy Weinstein Hagai were brought home Israel in a military operation tonight. Gadi (72) and Judy (70) were murdered at their kibbutz Nir Oz by terrorists on October 7th and then were kidnapped dead. The bodies were recovered from the European Hospital in Khan Yunis.

There are currently 56 hostages in captivity in Gaza, 33 of whom have been declared dead, 23 others are said to be alive, but there is serious concern for the lives of three

***
Israel has blocked Greta Thunberg’s boat from reaching Gaza, rejecting the move to avoid setting a dangerous precedent.
Defense Minister Katz may order the vessel to be left at sea—or escorted to Ashdod for the arrest of those on board.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

In a direct challenge to Hamas, Yasser Abu Shabab’s Popular Forces militia has declared that large parts of Eastern Rafah have been cleared (assuming of Hamas presence). Shabab calls on residents to return to the area for water, food, medicine, and shelter.

Senior Israeli security officials confirm: local Gazan militias unaffiliated with Hamxs or Fatah are cooperating with Israel, fighting Hamxs and helping secure aid distribution sites.

***
Latest Updates (Week-over-Week Progress):

- Israel Defense officials claim that the IDF now has controls of 50% of the Gaza Strip.

- Division 162: Dominating northern Gaza with intensified operations.
- Divisions 36 & 98: Leading operations in Khan Yunis, targeting Hamas infrastructure.
- Division 252: Securing control over the central Gaza Strip.
- Division 143: Maintaining operations in Rafah, the buffer zone, and the Gaza envelope.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The IDF reports intercepting a drone launched from the east—likely from Yemen, over the Western Negev. No injuries were reported.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

US vetoes UN Security Council resolution calling for immediate ceasefire in Gaza; 14 of 15 members voted in favor, Ynet reports.

Hxmas condemned the United States for vetoing the UN Security Council ceasefire resolution, calling it proof of Washington’s “blind bias toward Israel” and support for “crimes against humanity” in Gaza.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

More evidence that Hamas is losing control over Gaza. Unaffiliated militias are cooperating with IDF to provide security for US food distribution points as well as apparently clearing Hamas out of sectors. Remember - STRENGTH is a key factor in arab actions, and Israel is acting very strong in its Gaza operations, while Hamas is viewed as losing badly and grasping at straws. New groups being able to form up to challenge Hamas in a post war Gaza. These militias are positioning themselves to be seen favorably by Israel when that happens. Rest assured they have a significant anti-Israeli element as well.

Lebanon and Syria continued as stable but can be energized at a moment’s notice.

Iran - see below.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

On Saturday, June 1, Reuters reported that it had seen the latest confidential and comprehensive report by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency on the nuclear program of the Islamic Republic.

The report, prepared at the request of the IAEA’s 35-member Board of Governors last November, paves the way for Western powers, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, to issue a resolution against Iran that would identify the Islamic Republic of Iran as violating its non-proliferation obligations.

According to some diplomats, a draft of the resolution is expected to be presented at the next meeting of the Board of Governors in the week ending June 9. This would be the first time in about 20 years that Iran could be officially designated as a “non-compliant state.”

OBSERVATION - Iran is being documented as an agreement violator and being set up for major blow back sanctions by Europe. That alone would be a significant blow to the country’s economy, but not necessarily to its nuclear goals.

All of these things are building an international foundation for the justified strike by the US / Israel IMHO. Iran recognizes this, so the race is on. Will Iran’s nuclear program be hit before it can produce a bomb?

Unanswered question is has the word been given to initiate final planning for a strike and are there any other trigger elements waiting to be seen? Iran thinks it sees weakness in Trump’s actions and responses and is acting ‘strong’. This trend is dangerous.

On another note, Tucker Carlson has gone online recently denouncing the claims that Iran desires a nuclear weapon and that they are essentially a peaceful nation. I don’t know what he has been drinking lately, but such statements show a great deal of ignorance of the situation - or - he’s getting paid off to produce anti-Israel propaganda. I hope its only the first and not the last.

Heads up. Saturday I don’t expect to have the time to produce a report.

IN REMEMBRANCE - D-Day, June 6, 1944

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***

The weekend out look for protests has changed little from previous weeks. Add to the mix a lot more LGBT related events. Anti-Israel / pro-hamas themes are heating up and could locally generated acts of violence. As with previous posts - keep situationally aware.

***
On Tuesday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries condemned all Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials, asserting during a press briefing that the identities of the agents involved in a recent altercation should be disclosed publicly for the whole country to see.

“Every single ICE agent who is engaged in this aggressive overreach, and are trying to hide their identities from the American people, will be unsuccessful in doing that. This is America, this is not the Soviet Union, we are not behind the Iron Curtain, this is not the 1930s,” Jeffries declared.

“And every single one of them, no matter what it takes, no matter how long it takes, will be identified. That in fact is the law. And we’re gonna make sure that the American people have the transparency necessary to hold people accountable when there are folks who cross the line here in America. That’s what’s gonna happen,” he continued.

https://www.oann.com/newsroom/doxer-hakeem-jeffries-demands-public-release-of-ice-agents-names-citing-aggressive-overreach/

OBSERVATION - Jeffries is threatening the very lives of those agents, who will then become targets of criminals and illegals. Incitement to violence is all the left has available in their bag. DOXXING by leftists like Antifa has been a priority to terrorize families of law enforcement.

***
The Trump administration reportedly plans to shut down a TSA program that conducts surveillance on travelers to weed out potential terrorist threats. The program was ostensibly aimed at protecting Americans from terrorist activity, but has often targeted innocent Americans — including National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/jeff-charles/2025/06/05/trump-is-ending-tsa-program-that-targeted-tulsi-gabbard-n2658237#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Another instance where raw govt power was used to intimidate citizens. IMHO, TSA needs to be totally shutdown as any revamp/reorganization would be fruitless at this stage.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Repeating his read-out of his call with President Xi Jinping, President Donald Trump reiterated “we have a deal” with China on trade, albeit with the caveat the deal is an agreement in principle and there remains some t’s to cross.
“I think we’re in very good shape with China and the trade deal: We have a deal with China, as you know, but we were straightening out some of the points having to do mostly with rare-earth magnets and some other things,” Trump said in an Oval Office press gaggle Thursday after releasing his Truth Social readout.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/china-trade-deal-call/2025/06/05/id/1213769/

OBSERVATION - I’m not holding my breath on this agreement. Too many unnamed ’t’s to cross.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Biggest fight being over the reconciliation bill

TRUMP Watch –

White House aides have scheduled a call between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk today in an effort to de-escalate their recent public feud, according to Politico.

OBSERVATION - What in the H E double toothpicks is going on here! Yesterday’s exploding was like a couple of kids getting it on at the playground. Disgusting behavior by both sides.

Illegal Immigration –

Efforts are being made to reach the 3000 / day level of arrests and deportations.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 90s mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.

RUMINT –
Rumint. Ukraine media is reporting that Russia launched an “Oreshnik” ballistic missile and it failed.

NOTE - Videos posted to social media reportedly depiction the failure do show the break-up of some sort of missile related item - very similar to recent Starship failures filmed over the Bermuda region - as components break up upon reentry. Unconfirmed on the source and location of the video

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reported on the overnight attack, which in total struck 13 Ukrainian cities.

Shot down:
368/407 various type drones (199 shot down, 169 suppressed by EW)
4/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
30/36 Kh-101 cruise missiles
2/2 Iskander-K cruise missiles
0/1 Kh-31P anti-radar missile

Russian losses per 06/06/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff

+1160 men
+2 tanks
+5 AFVs
+44 artillery
+3 AD systems

The explosions earlier in the Bryansk Oblast of Western Russia are now confirmed to have occurred on the main tarmac at Bryansk International Airport, with some suggesting that the targets struck were ballistic missiles being prepared for strikes against Ukraine.

Several Ukrainian long-range drones struck a fuel depot this morning at Russia’s Engels-2 Airbase in the Saratov Oblast, causing a number of fires to erupt at the home of the 121st Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment and the 184th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment.

General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine also confirmed strike at Dyagilevo airfields overnight Also hit the “Progress” plant in Michurinsk, which produces equipment for missile, aviation, and energy infrastructure.

Summary —

Very active night for the long range wars of both sides. Russia’s attack, though large, is not nearly as large as other attacks. Number of drones is not beyond recent attacks, and the number of cruise missiles either. Targets across Ukraine were hit.

Two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile launch sites were hit prior to the overnight attack, one triggered multiple secondary explosions from other missiles at the site.

If this was supposed to be the big retaliation for the Ukraine drone hit, thought big, it was relatively underwhelming as recent strikes by Russia go.

Ukraine continued successfully pinpoint targets. Fuel supplies at two key Russian airbases were hit and set on fire, reducing availability of fuel for air strikes in the near future. The “Progress” plant hit will complicate Russian production as well.

Ground action continues to be moderately heavy with little terrain changes by either side. So far, no evidence of troop concentrations that could point to center of effort of the declared spring/summer offensive by Russia. Only exception is increased fighting in the Sumy sector.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- IAF destroys Hezbollah drone factory in Beirut.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Follow up - Judih Weinstein and Gad Haggai, who’s remains were recently recovered held dual Israeli / US citizenship.

Netanyahu reportedly confirmed to Trump that no independent Israeli action against Iran will occur before US declares an impasse with its negotiations.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Senior Hamas official Khalil Al-Hayya: We are ready to hand over the government in Gaza to a Palestinian body that has national consensus

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The total number of airstrikes carried out by Israeli fighter jets and drones on the Lebanese suburbs reached 21. Seven airstrikes targeted buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs. These raids were preceded by 14 warning strikes carried out by drones

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, following airstrikes on the southern suburbs: There will be no calm in Beirut, no order, and no stability in Lebanon without the security of the State of Israel. Agreements must be respected, and if you do not do what is required, we will continue to act, with great force.

Several drone attacks in S Lebanon targeted suspected Hezbollah elements / leaders

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Missile fired at Israel from Yemen intercepted, Israeli army says

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

As I’ve said and will continue to say, the situation in Lebanon and Syria are generally stable but can change at a moments notice. Yesterday afternoon/night’s air strikes against Hezbollah drone production facilities in Beirut are a case in point. Early in the war, Hezbollah threatened Israel not to hit sites in Beirut and this is a key reason why. They buried factory and key command and control facilities under the buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs - controlled by Hezbollah. Until the Lebanese govt gets serious about disarming and neutering Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, Israel will continue to dismantle their facilities.

Rumors are that Israel will be ready to strike Iran by the end of June. This parallels the apparent refusal of Iran to capitulate on key elements of the nuclear disarmament talks. Delay may also be for the US to develop a joint strike plan as well as prepping for strikes.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

Reports that Iran is ordering missile fuel and associated missile parts from China. Related to this was the recent blast at the Iranian port of massive quantities of nitrate from China, a solid fuel component. Rumors suggest this is part of an effort to build around 800 ballistic missiles to replace those lost in last years strikes against Israel.

OBSERVATION - China playing close to additional sanctions on this development.

***
Russian Foreign Ministry:
We are concerned about tensions around Iran and the risk of a full-scale confrontation.
The crisis must be resolved through political and diplomatic means, and Russia is ready to help find a solution.

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1930251028395429888

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Iran is painting itself into a corner and are hoping that its chest beating will delay Israeli / US air strikes long enough to put itself into a better defensive and offensive position. They have to be planning for a prolonged air campaign, no more quick, single strikes as in the past. They ‘d be foolish not to.

Of its two growing allies - Russia and China - they can only mostly talk. Russia is in too deep into Ukraine to do much and China is on a tight rope with tariff talks and an economy on the ropes.

Israeli / US targeting will likely focus on the nuclear related sites. However, should Iran choose to play the oil blockade card, Kharg Island could be turned to rubble as well (something like 90% of Iranian exported oil passes thru this facility). With the threat to the Straits of Hormuz, the US may focus a lot of airstrikes against Iranian naval assets both in and out of the Persian gulf. This is why I suspect that a second aircraft carrier CSG will be necessary to support an operation. My eyes continue to be on either the Nimitz or the Washington being diverted in the near future.

CRITICAL THREAT HERE AT HOME - Iran has threatened asymmetrical warfare against its enemies. Here in the US that can take the form of cyber attacks, terror strikes against infrastructure, arson (forest fires) and armed teams attacking the numerous soft targets here in the US, like hospitals (I noted concerns on this over a month ago). The open borders under biden undoubtedly permitted hundreds if not thousands of terror operatives to penetrate into the country and band with like minded jihadists here in the US to prepare to conduct such operations.

Mexico -

In a unanimous decision, the Supreme Court ruled 9-0 Thursday that the government of Mexico cannot hold American gun manufacturers accountable for criminal activity. More specifically, cartel violence south of the border.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2025/06/05/mexico-suffers-major-loss-at-the-supreme-court-n2658246

OBSERVATION - Case supported by gun grabbers in the US as a way of taking down the PLCAA [The Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act] and allowing more lawsuits against gun manufacturers.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WATCH - up dated June 7, 2025
Raised due to potential spread of Antifa supported violence against ICE and DHS agents performing arrests of illegals. Current epicenter the Los Angeles Region.

National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )

***
Again, Threat Level has been raised to WATCH

***
Demonstrations erupted in the Los Angeles area following raids across Los Angeles on Friday. Saturday protests accelerated starting across the street from a Home Depot in the city of Paramount as L.A. County quickly spreading into a full blown riot with fires and intense conflict with law enforcement. Reports of arrests of 44 people on suspicion of immigration violations, and another on suspicion of obstructing justice.

Law enforcement used less-than-lethal munitions, as well as what appeared to be tear gas, in an effort to disperse crowds. Multiple people were detained throughout the day, and one person was charged.

President Donald Trump moved to deploy the National Guard in to L.A. over the objections of Gov. Gavin Newsom and L.A. Mayor Karen Bass who argued it was unnecessary and could escalate tensions. Bass reiterated that LA law enforcement will NOT be dispatched to assist ICE/DHS agents being attacked.

Trump federalized part of California’s National Guard under what is known as Title 10 authority, which places him, not the governor, atop the chain of command, according to Newsom’s office.

Bass confirmed after midnight that National Guard troops had not been deployed in Los Angeles, shortly after Trump thanked troops for “a job well done” in a pre-dawn post on social media.

Mayor of Los Angeles Karen Bass: “We are going to fight for all Angelenos, regardless of when they got here, whether they have papers or not, we are a city of immigrants.”

Los Angeles Police Chief Jim McDonnell releases a statement after an ICE raid earlier today, saying that his officers will not cooperate or assist ICE in any way.

Acting ICE Director Tom Homan defended his agency’s actions on Fox News Saturday, saying, “Mayor Bass ought to be thanking us for making her city safer.”

He called out Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who has threatened to dox ICE employees. “ICE agents are out there with masks on [to] protect themselves and their families because they’ve been doxxed, or their family has been doxxed, or life’s been threatened.

In fact, Homan revealed, he’s had over 1,000 protesters at his home as a result of doxxing.

Homan -

“This is about enforcing the law. And again, we’re not going to apologize for doing it. We’re stepping up,” she says. “They’re going to mobilize? Well, guess what—we’re already ahead of the game. We were already mobilizing. We’re bringing the National Guard in tonight. We’re going to continue doing our job. We’re going to push back on these people, and we’re going to enforce the law.”

https://x.com/immeme0/status/1931502435874574733?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced late Saturday night that in addition to the National Guardsmen — who were being deployed to restore order in Los Angeles — he was placing active duty U.S. Marines at nearby Camp Pendleton on high alert.

Hegseth’s announcement, made via a post on X, came just hours after it was reported that President Donald Trump was invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807 (NOTE - Activation under Title 10 authority) in order to deploy a number of National Guard troops as protesters clashed violently with Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents across the Los Angeles area.

“The violent mob assaults on ICE and Federal Law Enforcement are designed to prevent the removal of Criminal Illegal Aliens from our soil; a dangerous invasion facilitated by criminal cartels (aka Foreign Terrorist Organizations) and a huge NATIONAL SECURITY RISK. Under President Trump, violence & destruction against federal agents & federal facilities will NOT be tolerated. It’s COMMON SENSE,” Hegseth said.

RELATED - More than 20 people were arrested Saturday as a mob of nearly 150 protesters cursed at cops and tried to block federal authorities from conducting immigration raids in Lower Manhattan, according to a police source, federal officials and video from the chaotic scene.

The angry, masked demonstrators yelled “motherf–kers” at officers, sat in the roadway, threw objects and even themselves in front of an unmarked white van with tinted windows as it tried to leave 26 Federal Plaza, where the US Immigration Court is housed.
The vehicle was finally able to drive away after about two minutes but the scene later devolved into mayhem as nearly 40 NYPD and federal officers continued to clash with the demonstrators, video shows.

https://nypost.com/2025/06/07/us-news/five-arrested-in-nyc-as-nearly-100-protesters-clash-with-feds/

MORE RELATED - “Camp needs: more Antifa”

Antifa militants are calling for other members to join their violent occupation of the ICE facility in Portland. This is the same building they violently occupied in 2018.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1931606410724303307?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Antifa rioters have gathered at the ICE facility in Portland, Ore. They’re stacking up debris on the property, likely to start a fire as they did multiple times in 2020.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1931605377822658904?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

AND MORE - Open border radicals are calling for federal agents with @DHSgov to be identified and personally targeted. In recent weeks, officers, agents and their families have been sent death threats.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1931428030133772496?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -

“This is the first real action we’ve seen anywhere close to 2020. I’d say this is an accelerator. If they can sustain this in LA, we might have an interesting summer.”
https://x.com/grayzoneintel/status/1931180821295087662?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

This attack came out of the blue as far as the intensity of the response by both Antifa et al and the fed govt. Evidenced by the fancy printed signs, and the pallets of cinder blocks confidently placed in areas (a ls Floyd riots of 2020), there were early preparations for this level of violence.
Some elements of the korean community were indicating that ‘roof top Korean’ scenarios may be developing.

I noted months ago, Antifa / marxist analysts noted that much coordination comms have shifted onto more secure ways, even to the point of face to face contacts, and off of social media in general. Antifa and related decided this was the time to marshal the troops and they quickly called for arms over social media. Social media has been useful to the violent left to build up justification and anger for the ICE raids.

Call to arms is developing across the west coast, with ICE being threatened in the Antifa capitol of Portland OR.

This kind of leftist response has been simmering, but there was no evidence that this weekend would be a trigger point. The level and scale of these riots as noted above observation by gray zone intel could be the initial attempt to release the genie once again.

Key observation is the response in 2020 versus yesterday. In 2020, these riots in dark blue urban areas saw police ordered to stand down and back off. All comments by Newscum, Bass and LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell indicated that they were tracking to do the same. In 2020, Trump didn’t mobilize federal response, differing to the local / state govts. Not this time. Trump quickly took charge with the CANG and even USMC alerts to respond, along with reinforcement from Federal law enforcement. In addition, rioters are facing FEDERAL charges, unlike in 2020, for attacking federal law enforcement. Unlike those being arrested will be on the streets any time soon with the revolving jail door very evident from local govts in 2020. Rioters FA’d and are in the FO stage as far as legal action.

There was a lot of discussion as far back as Nov of last year (and even further) that Trump would invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807 (he utilized another means to call up the Guard this time) and use it to arrest political opponents. Not this time, but should rioting explode across the country as in 2020, he may well use that tool for both much larger deployments of the national guard (essentially absent in 2020) and legal actions. The discussion by the left on this over time is that it would act as an accelerant to rioting and not a deterrent.

We also see that instigation and encouragement of violence by democrat members of congress laying foundations of support for further violence. Jeffries’ threat to use his power as the minority leader to doxx ICE / DHS agents involved in the arrests of illegals is at the top of the list. Other democrats were calling for more violence to drive ICE out of the LA area.

So far, the strong response by Trump’s team appears to have taken some of the wind out of the Antifa sails, but we’ll see what today brings.

Final note, Trump’s birthday and the big military parade in DC are only one week away. Triggering violence by Antifa at this time may be and effort to get the train rolling to create a violent response in DC to rain on the parade.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

The FBI and DHS have issued a Public Service Announcement to highlight potential public safety concerns related to ongoing threats to Jewish and Israeli communities

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Forward-deployed aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) returned to Yokosuka this week after wrapping up sea trials ahead of a summer patrol. Meanwhile, Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 5 wrapped up Field Carrier Landing Practice (FCLP) drills on Iwo To (Iwo Jima) on Saturday.

Illegal Immigration –

Kilmar Abrego Garcia is back in the United States, but he can hardly be thrilled about it. He has been returned not for a removal hearing, but for a trial that could result in a lengthy prison sentence, followed by immediate removal back to El Salvador. After the issuance of the federal grand jury, the United States is likely the last place on Earth that Abrego Garcia wanted to visit

Ironically, in light of this indictment, any criminal defense attorney worth his salt would have opposed deportation to the United States from El Salvador. Instead, Abrego Garcia will face a much longer possible criminal sentence. He will eventually then be deported to El Salvador regardless of the outcome of the criminal prosecution. Abrego Garcia never had a compelling basis for remaining in the United States. He gamed the system for years, a system that seems utterly incapable of dealing with this national emergency.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/jonathan-turley-not-homecoming-dems-abrego-garcia-hoped

OBSERVATION - OP ED by noted lawyer Jonathan Turley Good read.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russian media reporting Putin will convene extended meeting of Russian security council to address Ukrainian attacks at the airfields next week

***
The Russian moratorium on the deployment of intermediate- and shorter-range missiles (INF) is coming to its logical conclusion, - said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. In his opinion, Western countries did not appreciate “Russia’s restraint in this matter”

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 90s cooling to the 70s, mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.

RUMINT –
The Security Service of Ukraine reportedly carried out yet another large-scale drone attack today on a military train traveling between Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia in Russian-occupied Southeastern Ukraine, with hundreds of FPV drones said to have emerged from hatches aboard several grain hoppers, while the train was in motion, before striking the locomotive and then proceeding to strike over a hundred train cars carrying heavy equipment and supplies for the Russian Armed Forces.

OBSERVATION - Components of and lack of evidence for this operation have caused may OSINT and related analysts to question the veracity of the report. If true, this would have been the 4th attack on Russian rail ops in a week. Barring additional evidence, I’m not going to accept this claim either.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight on June 8, Ukraine’s air defense neutralized 40 drones out of 49 launched by Russia. In addition, they launched an P-800 Oniks anti-ship missile and two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles.

Ukraine drones attacked Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk of Tula region.

A fire broke out last night at the fuel depot of the Krymsk airbase in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai, according to FIRMS data analyzed by monitoring group “Crimean Wind.”

A fire broke out at State Enterprise Melitopol Plant “Gidromash” in occupied Melitopol. The plant specializes in high-pressure aluminum casting, precision steel castings, machining, and foundry equipment manufacturing.

Ukrainian drones struck the “Azot” chemical plant in Tula Oblast, sparking a fire. The facility is known to produce key components used in Russia’s military-industrial complex.

Russian losses per 08/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1120 men
+7 tanks
+11 AFVs
+42 artillery
+2 AD systems
+1 aircraft (Su-35SM)

Russian Ministry of Defense claims its troops reached the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions of Ukraine and advancing west

Summary —

Russian long game attack with drones/missiles is significantly down from recent attacks.

Moderately heavy fighting continues on the ground. Heat may now be a factor in Russian assaults in that they have to have a lot of water to support the troops. Russian logistics are notorious for not doing a good job in that areas. Thus Russian troops face their final assaults Ukraine positions dehydrated and with associated lower capability.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Body of a Thai national hostage was recovered.

- Significant underground command center under the European Hospital being examined by IDF

- Intense fighting as part of the ongoing Gaza operations.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz: “I instructed the Israeli army to prevent the ‘Madleen’ flotilla from reaching Gaza. To the antisemitic Greta and her friends, I say clearly: you’d better turn back, you will not reach Gaza.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF Chief approves updated operations in Gaza.

***
The GHF announced Sunday the opening of a single distribution site in central Gaza, after closing all of its centers on Saturday due to threats from Hamas against its staff

***
Hamas on Saturday warned the Israel Defense Forces not to attempt to rescue hostage Matan Zangauker, claiming that the military is “besieging” the location in the Gaza Strip where the Israeli is being held.

***
Israeli troops recovered the body of hostage Pinta Nattapong in a special IDF and Shin Bet operation in the Gaza Strip, the Prime Minister’s Office announces.
Nattapong, a Thai national, was abducted by Hamas-led terrorists from Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7, 2023.
According to the statement, Nattapong was murdered in captivity by the Mujahideen Brigades

***
Intense fighting being reported in the vicinity of the European Hospital, located near Khan Yunis in the southern Strip.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The Israeli army claims to have targeted a Hamas member in an airstrike in the town of Beit Jann in southern Syria.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel continues to press in on Hamas strongholds in central and southern Gaza, now facing more organized and intense resistance. Intelligence exploration of the captured Hamas command bunker beneath the European Hospital may lead to more hostage rescue/recovery attempts.

In the midst of this operation, preparations for an Iran strike continue.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

The British Guardian reports: In an unusual move, Iran has begun pumping fuel into advanced IR-9 centrifuges – capable of enriching uranium 50 times faster than the old model. In doing so, Iran is effectively violating the agreement with the US and beginning to double the rate of enriched uranium production.

OBSERVATION - Iran is poking the bear at a very poor time. Trump is agitated from his tiff with Musk and now dealing with an Antifa lead insurrection against ICE and his deportation plans. Seeing that while ‘negotiating’ Iran seriously ramped up its enrichment operations - evidence of bad faith negotiations - may just push the trigger downward even more. Next couple weeks are critical for both Iran and the US. Israel has said they would be ready to hit Iran within 7 hours of the US declaring negotiations are done. Getting real close to spicy times.

In the midst of all the explosion of chaos, I will be mostly offline starting Thurs thru Sunday this week. Depending on Cell service, I may be able to do limited reporting on key flashpoints.

National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )

Specific Threat Level WARNING upgrades for the following :
- Los Angeles Region
- San Francisco
- Portland
- Seattle
- Tampa FL

***
The chaos in LA continues and Antifa/anti-deportation elements are working to spread similar riots across the nation.

A large mob of violent far-left extremists gathered in downtown Los Angeles yesterday to assault LAPDHQ officers in the third day of insurrection against the government over its policy to repatriate illegal aliens. They also blocked Hwy 101 for a period of time and assaulted the LAPD HQ, breaking numerous windows.

LAPD declared a tactical alert in downtown Los Angeles (DTLA) amid ongoing protests. All available officers are being held on duty, and additional units may be deployed as the situation develops

***
Border Czar Tom Homan threatened to arrest California Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass if they interfere with federal immigration enforcement.

Gavin Newscum is threatening to withhold the state’s $80 BILLION of federal taxes in response to ICE raids.
NOTE - States cannot legally withhold federal taxes, as these are collected from individuals, not states, and such an action would likely violate federal law.

***
The Trump administration is telling Los Angeles to get ready for 30 days of ICE enforcement operations.

***

Los Angeles City Council Member Eunisses Hernandez (D) calls to escalate the riots against ICE agents.

https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1931557768189690361?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Congresswoman Maxine Waters was caught on camera berating deployed CANG members.

Deployment of CANG / Active duty to LA -

USNORTHCOM can confirm that elements of the 79th Infantry Brigade Combat Team from the California National Guard have begun deploying to the Los Angeles area, with some already on the ground. Additional information will be provided as units are identified and deployed

USNORTHCOM says 500 U.S. Marines are ready to deploy to Los Angeles.
RUMINT - Marines already on the road

Newscum demands they be pulled out.
LAPD Chief just said they are overwhelmed

Says the decision to call in the National Guard must be “reassessed” in light of the massive violence against officers

https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1931917454223012083

Other Highlights -

The California Highway Patrol’s Special Response Team (CHP-SRT) arrived at the site of the demonstration on the 101 Freeway, deploying tear gas and other less-lethal means to clear the crowd from the highway and onto a nearby exit ramp in Downtown Los Angeles. The 101 was eventually. CHP elements found themselves trapped beneath an overpass and pelted by rocks and chunks of concrete, injuring several and damaging several vehicle. It took several hours before the bridge was cleared of rioters.

Spreading -

Andy Ngo is reporting that Antifa International has announced a June 8th, today, direct action … to attack the ICE facility in San Francisco.”
Rioters mobilized outside ICE offices in San Francisco after Antifa International issued a call to action for tonight.

Similar call to action issued for TAMPA, FLORIDA today to cause a halting of ICE raids, at 3PM.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -

Analysts are noting -

“If the political violence continues in Los Angeles, it will be used to galvanize and inspire far-left extremists and Antifa cells across the country to incite anti-government insurrections in different cities. What we are witnessing now is almost exactly what happened five years ago. The same networks and militants are involved. It is their same playbook.”

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1931574659419619673?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Ngo is the go to man regarding Antifa. It seems Antifa and it affiliated mexican nationalists in the LA area have chose to launch their desired violent attacks. LA is going to be the rallying cry/point for other riots across the nation and we will have to follow the action as it builds.

An additional accelerant IMHO is the military parade coming up next week. DC is one of the Antifa hot beds and can draw leftists from a wide area when summoned. This could be a big attention getter for violence.

He notes consistently that Antifa has merged with radical mexican nationalists. Unconfirmed reports that this ‘mexican nationalism’ may have cartel connections.

Antifa tactics of placement of bricks, etc has been noted as well.

There is some misrepresentation regarding the current deployment of the CANG elements. They are deployed around federal facilities - primarily ICE or DHS. They are not participating in any of the other fights around the town. Those are being faced by LAPD and CHP. Trump’s federalization order is the reason so far for the limited call up. For the CANG to be used on a wider scale, that call will have to come from Newscum and/or LA leadership. The LAPD Chief is admitting they are overwhelmed, an additional justification for the federal call up.
We knew warning orders were given to the Marines in SoCal. Unconfirmed rumors that they are already enroute.

ICE operations for the next 30 days with riots of this growing magnitude pretty much cements a very ugly early summer and may well continue thru fall at least.

Current response has been one of pretty stout methods. Rubber bullets, pepper balls and batons have been the norm. No kid glove treatments nor stand downs that characterized police response during the 2020 floyd riots noted yet.

We also see continued incitement to riot coming from democrat leaders, both local and national. Should these creatures step over the line and get arrested, it could serve as throwing gasoline on the current fire. They should tread lightly as arrests from the scrum last month in NJ should show the administration is serious.

If the magnitude of these riots grow to that of the 2020 events, there is a strong likelihood that Trump will invoke the Insurrection clause and potentially impose martial law on areas. Trump learned a lot from 2020, in that the local, leftist civil leadership is more than willing to allow these thugs to burn down their town (and in many cases their neighborhoods). No accountability for the rioters who more often than not saw a revolving door at the courthouse. I don’t think Trump is going to allow that this time around. The scenario has also changed on parts of this as well. Riots initially focused on federal law enforcement and facilities before spreading into general chaos. That means federal charges, not local. Hint - no revolving door this time around. That may have sunk in at the federal facilities being guarded by the NG. No significant violences noted. Violence / riots were in other areas.

Finally, some in the news community poo-poo’d the rumbling that the SK community was preparing for Roof Top Koreans 2.0. They take security of their communities seriously and many remember the Rodney King riots. Riot conditions are even more volatile this time around. I wonder if other sections of the town are contemplating and organizing local defense elements.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Ken Martin is reportedly considering stepping down from his position, citing deep frustration over Vice Chairman David Hogg’s efforts to target sitting Democratic lawmakers with primary challenges.

https://www.lifezette.com/2025/06/democrat-civil-war-explodes-dnc-chair-threatens-to-quit-over-david-hogg-watch/

OBSERVATION - The Hogg soap opera continues.

Illegal Immigration –

ICE operations continue across the country in the face of riots in LA.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 90s cooling to the 70s, mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched the biggest overnight drone bombardment of the 3-year war, the Ukrainian air force said Monday, as the Kremlin presses its summer offensive against the backdrop of direct peace talks. At least 5 Tu-95MS and 4 Tu-22M3 were used.

Shot down:
– 460/479 Shahed-type & decoy drones
– 4/4 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles
– 10/10 Kh-101 cruise missiles
– 2/3 Kh-22 cruise missiles
– 2/2 Kh-31P anti-radar missiles
– 1/1 Kh-35 cruise missile

Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted 292 targets and jammed 187 using aviation, SAMs, EW units, UAV forces, and mobile fire teams.
Ukraine’s Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat confirmed that Patriot missile systems operated at 100% effectiveness today, intercepting all 4 out of 4 Kinzhal (the so called air launched hypersonic missiles) targeting the Rivne region.

The main focus of the attack appears to be against western Ukraine. This caused the Polish Air Force to scramble fighter jets to secure Polish airspace.

Ukraine continued its drone attacks on Russian targets. Ukrainian drones hit a target in the city of Cheboksary east of Moscow. Ukrainian long-range drones struck the VNIIRE-Progress facility in Cheboksary—approximately 975 km from the Ukrainian border. This enterprise supplies critical electronics for Russia’s S-300/400/500 air defense systems, T-90M and “Armata” tanks, as well as naval vessels and submarines.

Ukrainian drones also targeted multiple Russian military airfields. Explosions were reported in the regions of Samara, Voronezh, Tambov, and Nizhny Novgorod—particularly near Borisoglebsk and Savasleyka.

Russian losses per 09/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+970 men
+4 tanks
+11 AFVs
+42 artillery
+1 MLRS

Summary —

Ukraine brought their “A” game out last night and suppressed a very large Russian attack. Meanwhile, Ukraine drones hit some choice Russian targets.

Fighting on the front was moderately low, judging from the posted casualties and reports of action.

Europe / NATO General –

NATO Chief Rutte urges members to make “quantum leap” in defense capabilities, including 400% increase in air and missile defenses to counter growing threat from Russia. “We see in Ukraine how Russia delivers terror from above,” he says

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- “Freedom Flotilla” intercepted and participants taken into custody for eventual deportment.

- Gaza operations continue with new Gazan evacuation notices

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel has now confirmed that the “Shayetet 13” Commando Unit of the Israeli Navy has intercepted the “Freedom Flotilla” off the coast of the Gaza Strip, with all of its members being detained without injury or incident, as the pleasure yacht, Madleen, will be towed to Ashdod. All members of the “Freedom Flotilla” will be transported to Israel before being returned to their home countries in Europe.

OBSERVATION - The “Madleen”, was carrying a massive amount of relief supplies to Gaza - 50kg (110 lbs) of flour. Yep that’s it, like some how that is going to feed millions of gazans.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IIDF Spokesperson in Arabic Avihai Adraei warns northern Gaza residents in the areas of Jabalia, Jabalia Camp, the Old City and neighborhoods: “The IDF will act forcefully to destroy the capabilities of terrorist organizations, evacuate immediately.”

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The United States and Israel have agreed to end the mandate of the UN peacekeeping mission UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) in southern Lebanon.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syria: another attempt to smuggle weapons into Lebanon was thwarted 2 days ago. The Security forces seized over a hundred Iranian-made 107 mm rockets in area of Talkalakh (W. Homs). A significant smuggling activity remains in this region bordering Lebanon. The destination of these weapons was Hezbollah.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

For the first time in about six months, the Houthis attacked a commercial ship that “violated the blockade” in the Red Sea.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

IDF continues to press hard against Hamas. Recent operations like those around the European Hospital and schools continue to demonstrate that Hamas established substantial command and control centers beneath these facilities. The ‘slowness’ of the IDF advance is due in part to the encounters of the plethora of underground tunnels and facilities and the need to clear them before moving further on the ground. There are still dozens and dozens of miles under Gaza yet to be discovered.

Negotiations between the US and Iran appear to be falling apart pretty fast, and D Day for their nuclear program may be fast approaching - see below.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

Iranian Tasnim: “Tehran will respond today or tomorrow to the US proposal for a nuclear agreement. As part of the response, Iran will maintain its right to continue enriching uranium on its territory”

Over the weekend, Trump said absolutely no to enrichment.

OBSERVATION - A negotiated settlement is quickly drifting out of reach for Trump. Iran is betting the farm that he will not carry through with his threats to deal with the Iranian nuclear program with military strikes. I think Iran is believing its own propaganda too much.

The US, OTOH, has to make a strike decision pretty soon or its going to have to look at cycling forces out of the region. One of the reasons for the Iranian delay - to lower the US readiness for a strike.

So far, besides the very firm stances by Trump and Iran on enrichment, among other issues, there is very little to cause one to expect an agreement. How soon the other shoe will drop is yet to be firmed up.

In the midst of all the explosion of chaos, I will be mostly offline starting Thurs thru Sunday this week. Depending on Cell service, I may be able to do limited reporting on key flashpoints.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
Raised due to potential use of the “No King” events by Antifa to launch riots in major cities.

National Day of Action (NO KINGS) scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump 79th birthday )

***

“No Kings” protests being organized across the nation for Saturday June 14th now take even a more serious and potentially violent twist given the Antifa/Mexican based riots in LA and nacient protests/riots developing in other cities. On June 14th, President Trump shares a birthday with the US Army, and it just happens to be their 250th as well as National Flag day.

The very scope of the protests indicate that some very deep pocketed liberal / marxists are bankrolling the operation. How deep? Morris Pearl (former Managing Director of Blackrock ) and Randi Weingarten (President of the Teachers Union ) are part of coalition of 200 far-left NGOs are involved in the planning for this ‘event’.

My thoughts are that the base elements of these marches/protests will be peaceful. But in the past, Antifa and other violent elements will embed themselves into the crowd and begin their work after the protests have concluded and night falls. They will hope to bring some of the participants with them into the chaos.

Additional note - There will be no official “NO KINGS” event in Washington DC, with participants encouraged to go to Philadelphia and join the march there.

***
Some of the dynamics of the riots in LA remarkably changed overnight with organizers handing out American flags to smooth over the optics from the weekend, where foreign flags were waved with burning cars and destruction in the background.

Los Angeles rioters are now using moving civilian cars as shields as they lob projectiles at law enforcement officers.
Essentially, vehicles caught in the riots are being used as cover for Antifa et al to throw rocks, etc from.

***
Andy Ngo-

“It feels like we are in a Groundhog Day simulation with a slightly modified cast where BLM has been swapped out for violent Mexican nationalists. What’s happening now in L.A. happened before and involves many of the same far-left networks and individuals.”

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1932243953950048408?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
How did the Democrat union bag man know that FBI and DHS officers were enforcing a criminal search warrant at an L.A. clothing manufacturer on Friday? It seems that the union, CHIRLA, and the Los Angeles Rapid Response Network’s [LARRN] snitch line reporting “men in military garb” paid off. At least that’s what it looks like from the charging documents against SEIU executive and Democrat money man David Huerta.

The SEIU boss was arrested on Friday and spent the weekend in jail awaiting his arraignment Monday afternoon at the federal courthouse.

On Monday, Huerta was charged with criminal conspiracy for impeding a federal officer—multiple times—as officers served a search warrant on an L.A. clothing manufacturer. The union boss posted $50,000.00 bond and was ordered to stay at least 100 yards away from federal officers or operations while he awaits trial.

https://pjmedia.com/victoria-taft/2025/06/09/seiu-boss-n4940622

***
The streets are not the only place the fight is being waged, action on the internet is becoming fast and furious. The left-winger behind doxxing ICE agents — known as LA Scanner — when identified, blocked his account, then deleted it after getting doxxed himself, following reports that he’s a convicted felon.

https://x.com/immeme0/status/1932150507470291369?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

He begged people to stop harassing his family after he was doxxed. FAFO

***
Other key events overnight -
Rioters redirected their energy to taking over the streets and vandalizing property after being repelled by the National Guard from besieging a federal building. This is the first reported actual clash with the CANG I’ve seen. So far they just taunted and protested with signs.

“ National Guardsman push back rioters as they attempted to besiege a federal building. The federal presence due to President Trump appears to have disincentivized the open borders mob from becoming too violent.”

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1932263781003932123?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Both the LAPD and LASD eventually pushed demonstrators back from city hall and the federal buildings in Downtown Los Angeles, as the National Guard stood outside several of the entrances to the Federal Detention Center and Courthouse.

Mexican nationalists and open border extremists assaulted police at a riot in Dallas, Texas. The rioters believe they have found their 2025 George Floyd momentum to incite nationwide insurrections against the government.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1932346022702801328?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

In Austin, TX, authorities just declared the Party for Socialism & Liberation’s (PSL) anti-ICE protest in downtown Austin an unlawful assembly, threatening arrests and “chemical agents” if protesters don’t disperse.

WRAP UP OBSERVATIONS -

The “No King” protests resemble the so called ‘color’ protests that have been implemented in many nations around the world to over throw govts. Effort is to demonstrate some sort of populist support against the policies of the Trump administration - EOs, and deportation efforts for starters. There will be yours standard anti-trumpers there, with no real clue as to the policies they are opposing other than to be against Trump.
These ‘protests’ could be another pivotal point in the left’s efforts to stoke up violence against Trump.

Presence of CANG (and now USMC) at federal facilities appears to have thrown cold water on violent attacks by Antifa et al on those locations. The rioters may not have factored in the reality of federal charges, vs the revolving door of LAPD arrests. Important to note again that CANG activation / federalization to protect federal facilities and law enforcement is clearly legal. To move them against the greater mob of protestors will necessitate implementation of the Insurrection Law.

This has given these protestors greater incentive to now increase looting and other vandalism. Though newscum and the mayor claim to have things under control, evidence is their resources are stretched to the max. Trends suggest that if the rioting expands, newscum may be forced to call up CANG to help LAPD / LASD handle the violence.

The spread of similar riots to other cities is growing, but not at a rapid pace. It is my opinion that these leftists will hold back a little and unleash at the tail end of the “no king” events.

A major pushback to these riots has been the negative press coverage. As noted, the country is very much supportive of deportment policies and actions. So in the face of this, thousands of mexican flags being waved over burning police vehicles is not being taken well by the US citizenry. Optics forcing distribution of US flags to rioters. I’ll bet most get burned over the next couple days.

America has also changed a lot in the five years since the Floyd riots. The biden regime’s fundamental assault on the American way with the gross opening of the border to all, as well as his other policies, have given rise to the pushback seen in the nation with the reelection of Trump. The opposition is in disarray, openly supporting more and more violence and rioting while not producing any alternatives to the scenarios. More and more elected democrat political leaders are pushing the envelope and cold end up in hand cuffs. Not the wonderful photo op that it could have been in previous years.

Buckle up those of you in dark blue areas where Antifa riots hit in 2020, it could be a rough weekend. Keep situationally aware and your heads on a swivel.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) formally announced the creation of Task Force 51 on Sunday.

The new task force, commanded by a two-star general from U.S. Army North, was established to provide command and control over the federal military presence responding to civil unrest linked to immigration enforcement protests.

https://www.commondef.com/2025/06/u-s-northern-command-establishes-task-force-51-to-oversee-military-deployment-in-los-angeles-amid-protests/

OBSERVATION - The military build up is growing to 4000 NG and 70 USMC in LA. This step may well also be in anticipation of additional deployments / call ups in other cities across the US.

RELATED
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has reportedly ordered 700 Marines, most from the 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines stationed at Twentynine Palms, California, be deployed to Los Angeles, where they will act in a support role until additional federalized troops arrive from the California National Guard. It is not known what authority the Marines will be deployed under, as President Trump still has yet to invoke the Insurrection Act.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Newsom sues Trump administration over National Guard deployment.

Sen Fetterman -

“I unapologetically stand for free speech, peaceful demonstrations, and immigration—but this is not that.
This is anarchy and true chaos.
My party loses the moral high ground when we refuse to condemn setting cars on fire, destroying buildings, and assaulting law enforcement.”

https://x.com/senfettermanpa/status/1932234335425323417?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Illegal Immigration –

Americans are clearly on the side of Pres. Donald Trump when it comes to immigration – and that’s why he’s “begging for a fight” with Democrats on the issue, CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten explained Monday.

“No matter what poll you look at it, no matter which way you cut it, the American public is with the Republicans, the American public is with Donald Trump – and to a much greater extent than they were in term number one,” Enten said. “Trump is begging for a fight on this because he knows what he’s doing so far is working with the American electorate.”

“And, it’s not just on the broad issue of immigration, it’s on the specifics as well, in which the American public is with Donald Trump and the Republicans,” Enten said, noting that a majority of Americans now say they support, not just of Trump’s program to deport illegal immigrants, but also of efforts to search their hometowns in order to do so.

“So, it’s not just on the broad issue of immigration where Trump is doing well, it’s on the specifics. When you dive into the issues, Trump is above fifty percent and his actions are above fifty percent, at least with those most directly connected to what’s going on right now out in Los Angeles.”

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/cnn-no-matter-which-way-you-cut-americans-side-trump-immigration

OBSERVATION - Popular support for Trump and his other policies continue to be on the high side. Unknown how much ‘special sauce’ CNN poured on these polls in an effort to move them to the dark side, but it is telling that they weren’t able to do so.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 90s cooling to the 70s, mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Another massive drone/missile attack overnight
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, 284 of the 322 missiles and drones launched last night by Russia against Ukraine, primarily targeting the capital of Kyiv, were downed by air-defenses and electronic-warfare methods, this includes:

- 213/315 Shahed-type drones downed by air-defenses, 64 downed by electronic means
- 5/5 Iskander-K cruise missiles
2/2 KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles

Kyiv particularly hard hit. 4 people wounded, destruction and damage in 7 districts of Kyiv

Russian losses per 10/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+960 men
+4 tanks
+9 AFVs
+48 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 aircraft

Summary —

Russian continues the heavy bombardments of drones and cruise/ballastic missiles. Much of this effort is being directed to demoralize the Ukraine people and less at hitting military related targets.

Fighting remained moderate , yet Russia is slowly taking territory in small pieces. I still don’t see where any real concentration of forces for the summer offensive are mustering except for the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Trump / Netanyahu talk on Iran issues

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu had an important phone call with President Trump ahead of a special and urgent security meeting with the head of Israel’s security apparatus, against the backdrop of what appears to be Iran’s rejection of the US proposal.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF continues to reduce the area held by Hamas.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam: The state must impose full control over all armed forces in the country. The state is facing major challenges that require real and radical reforms. The state has succeeded in disarming more than 500 weapons depots in the south. We are continuing our diplomatic efforts to pressure Israel to halt its attacks.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

A Houthi ballistic missile launch failed, with the missile falling before reaching Israel.

The IDF confirms Israeli Navy missile ships struck Houthi targets at Yemen’s Port of Hodeidah this morning, in response to recent drone and missile attacks. Defense Minister Katz warned the Houthis will face more powerful responses and blockade if attacks continue.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza operations continue as the IDF pressures Hamas more and more. No real hostage / ceasefire talks to speak of.

Biggest thing on the radar is Iran and military options there.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

Iran’s National Security Council: We will attack Israel’s secret nuclear facilities with great precision, if our nuclear facilities are targeted.

Iran has reportedly delivered its response to the U.S-derived nuclear deal, rejecting the initial deal and instead proposing their own agreement, which maintains nuclear enrichment in Iran and calls for the “forced” destruction of Israel’s nuclear arsenal, and the lifting of all sanctions according to the New York Times.

***
Despite Iran rejecting the latest nuclear agreement presented by the United States and President Trump’s deadline to reach a deal expiring on Thursday, June 12th. The ongoing nuclear talks between the two countries will reportedly continue, with the sixth round of talks expected to happen Sunday, June 15th, in Muscat.

OVERALL OBSERVATION - The June 12 deadline is the first such date for this event I’ve seen.
This suggests that the window may open for a strike in the next couple weeks, particularly after this coming weekends scheduled talks. No sign of any compromise by either the US or Iran. Trump emphasizing to Netanyahu not do anything while negotiations are going on.

Mexico -

Mexico’s president has called on Mexican nationals in the United States to “mobilize”—to stop Congress from imposing a 3.5% tax on money sent from the U.S. to Mexico

OBSERVATION - Some have taken this to mean join the violent protests that have started in LA. IIRC, congress is looking to increase this to 15%. A lot of Mexico’s GDP would be hit with these higher taxes.

Plans change, will be posting, but unlikely on Saturday

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
Raised due to potential use of the “No King” events by Antifa to launch riots in major cities and the rapid increase in riots in these major cities.

National Day of Action (NO KINGS) scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump 79th birthday )
Over 1000 locations reportedly preparing to host protests.

PLEASE NOTE - Things are developing fast and my notes below are just a skimming of what jumps out at me.

***
Violence has significantly spread to other major cites over night and is poised to hit others in the next few days.

Some key overnight action

Masked Antifa violent militants, many of them recently involved in the domestic terrorist attack at UW and on the Christian worshippers, have mobilized to trap people inside a Seattle federal building. They’called for more rioters to come. The anti-ICE Antifa mob equipped with riot gear responded with more bodies after rush hour, once everyone is off of work. The group barricaded all of the garage exits to the federal building in Seattle for several hours now. DHS officers attempted to regain control of the grounds but were driven back into the building. Local police finally responded hours after Antifa began its siege of the building.

Mexican nationalists and far-left extremists shut down the 101 freeway in Los Angeles again after being repelled from besieging a federal building protected by National Guardsmen and federal officers.

Chicago Police have mobilized to prepare for likely violence from far-left anti-government extremists. Police in Chicago reportedly deployed a B0MB SQUAD to downtown after an anti-ICE rioter entered the sewer system and planted suspicious items

Anti-ICE protests have now reached Boston, Massachusetts.

Businesses in Los Angeles are starting to board up.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has imposed an 8 pm curfew for parts of the downtown area. Police move through downtown to clear anti-ICE protesters and enforce the curfew following over four days of violent insurrection.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has sent National Guard troops to San Antonio. His press secretary said they’re on standby near planned protest sites, ready to respond if needed.

Democrat politicians continue to call for more violence -
Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) said in an interview yesterday “this a moment where we have to be on the streets all over the country to protest what’s happening to our immigrant community, but more broadly to protest what’s happening to our democracy.” Murphy claims Trump is trying to raise the heat so that Trump has a reason to invoke the Insurrection Act.

***
Considerable commentary on the inter webs liking the current riots to a “Fort Sumter moment”. Dangerous concept for the left and a harbinger of even more violence.

Included in this are some dark warnings that the left may attempt some sort of a false flag event to further catalyze anger and violence from the left. I’ve seen from November 2024 rhetoric from the left that Trump will instill martial law to ‘get his enemies’. They may now be attempting to explode these riots to such a level that caused Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act and potential martial law, so that they can make the claims of ‘look at the tyrant’ as the country begins to shift towards midterms.

Some liken the current events to the onset of a “color revolution” or Bolshevik Revolution. For context, colour revolutions (also spelt, color revolutions) originally were a series of often non-violent protests and accompanying (attempted or successful) changes of government and society that took place in post-Soviet states (particularly Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan) and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia during the early 21st century. More recently, violence of action by opposition elements has become more dominant.

This is where the linkage of the outburst of violence to this weekend’s “no king” rallies is so significant. Observers are rightly noting that historically Antifa et al have piggybacked onto these so called ‘peaceful’ rallies to launch into riots. Makes sense to a radical - you got a bunch of already mind washed sheeple radicalized against Trump. Easily get many of them to participate in violence - the foundations for already laid by the left.

In the LA riots in particular, Andy Ngo notes that mexican nationalist have replaced BLM as the partner of Antifa. The goal of these nationalists is a concept of Reconquista or the taking back of former Mexican controlled territories lost to the US due to war in the early 1800s. This thought is even carried by some legislators in Mexico who recently said they’d gladly build the wall - along the lines of 1830 border. Hence the overwhelming abundance of Mexican flags throughout LA.

***
Democratic operatives started handing American flags out so the protesters looked less like an invading army, the protesters did the obvious, because they hate America, they started burning them too.

***
Big money from the left is pouring into LA and is probably going into other big cities being targeted for their riots. Tens of thousands of dollars of riot based equipment have been dropped off in LA alone, such as face shield and body armor, not to mention pallets of bricks. Following the money, leftist rich people have already been identified as the chief suppliers and funnelers (bringing funding from other leftist elements) of money.

Already identified include -
the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, Los Angeles; the Party for Socialism and Liberation; and the Service Employees International Union. One of these groups, the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, Los Angeles, has received millions in government funding in the past.

Not doubt, the Deep State is functioning behind this as well.

***
The riots are now collecting the dregs of the leftist world, expanding from anti-ICE but other political goal. Example -

New York City — The Party for Socialism and Liberation, a communist group that the recent DC Jewish museum gunman suspect belonged to, has organized a direct action against the U.S. government. They’re demanding the end of immigration enforcement. (Andy Ngo)

https://x.com/dogeai_gov/status/1932568898282385750

***
Violence level increasing.
Video footage showing a rioter in Los Angeles who reportedly started firing at LAPD Riot Units. Some question if a gun was actually used or just fireworks.

https://x.com/PopularFront_/status/1932558603086672027

NOTE - This appears to be random so far. There were shooting during 2020, with increasing action at road closures, especially against those who forced their way through the blockaids. However, post 2020 rioting had Antifa and affiliated worked hard to develop a lethal armed element that would bury itself into protests to fire weapons at police / opposition targets and with everyone on black bloc, be able to exfiltrate without detection or being caught. To an extreme level of massing enough shooters to even directly oppose police etc for short periods in a militia manner.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Observers are noting that 4x B-52 Stratofortress have been spotted at Diego Garcia along with 6x KC-135 Stratotanker, 6x F-15 and 1x C-5M. Commercial satellite imagery the source. Last known, only 2 B52s were on station following the withdrawal of 6 B2 bombers back to the states.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Placing some Illegal imigration elements here due to politcal ramifications

A federal grand jury has issued a three-count federal indictment against Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-NJ) after she was reportedly caught on camera storming an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention center in Newark, New Jersey, last month.

***
House Speaker Mike Johnson responded Tuesday to a question of whether he thinks California Gov. Gavin Newsom should face legal consequences for his actions as Los Angeles is consumed by anti-deportation riots.
“That’s not my lane, I’m not going to give you legal analysis on whether Gavin Newsom should be arrested, but he ought to be tarred and feathered, I’ll say that,” Johnson, R-La., said in response to The Daily Signal’s question.

https://www.dailysignal.com/2025/06/10/tarred-feathered-johnson-talks-consequences-newsom-la-riots/

***
Federal judge rejected the request from Kalifornia for an emergency restraining order against CANG federalization and deployment. Instead he granted the Trump administration the 24-hours they requested.

OBSERVATION - Analysis strongly suggests that this will not go Newscum’s way.

This is a very BIG challenge none the less. Trump has used Title 10 for justification of the federalization and deployment of the CANG. As a deployment, it is very focused on protecting federal facilities and operations (i.e. deportations and operations of ICE). These troops are not engaged in, for example, clearing the 101 freeway. Should the court challenge continue to its logical conclusion in favor of Trump, one could expect more Title 10 call ups for protection of other federal facilities/operations across the country as needed.

Title 10 is one step short of invoking the Insurrection Act - a much broader tool where the NG and active duty could act to quell riots over a broader, city level, beyond the current, limited Title 10 boundaries.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 24, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.

(FO) Grocery distribution giant United Natural Foods (UNFI) said in a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing on Monday that the company became aware of a network intrusion on 5 June.

UNFI said it is working to bring the company’s networks and services back online, and the intrusion is causing ongoing disruptions to its distribution operations.

Illegal Immigration –

Focus continues to be the ICE riots, but ICE continues to execute large scale illegal roundups across the nation.

***
(FO) The Minnesota state legislature passed a budget bill that will repeal a 2023 state law allowing illegal immigrants to access MinnesotaCare, a state funded healthcare system. Governor Tim Walz (D) said he will sign the bill.

OBSERVATION - Given that this is a blue state and a very blue governor, this reflects the growing pressure against continued progressive movement to liberally fund the presence of illegals in the state.

China -

Japan reported that China deployed a second Carrier Strike Group (CSG), the Shandong, to the Pacific. Per Japanese defense officials, this marks yet another first for the Chinese Navy as there have not been two CSGs operating in the Pacific at the same time.

Forward Observer analysis notes the Shandong is reportedly operating in the western Pacific near the normal carrier location. The Liaoning was last reported East of the Second Island Chain. If China was going to conduct a realistic carrier versus carrier defense drill in preparation for defending a blockade, these positions would be nearly correct.

OBSERVATION - Growing evidence that a blockade will be the preferred action towards Taiwan and that event is growing ever closer.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 90s cooling to the 70s, mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 85 Shahed-type strike UAVs and decoys, as well as an Iskander-M ballistic missile from multiple directions, targeting Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Odesa regions. 40 UAVs were shot down; 9 were suppressed via electronic warfare across eastern, southern, northern, and central Ukraine.

Russian losses per 11/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1120 men
+8 tanks
+15 AFVs
+34 artillery
+1 MLRS

Summary —

Kyiv and other major cities continue to take a pounding from Russian attacks.

Ground action continues with Russia scratching out very limited advances.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Continued expansion of operations in Gaza

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Two interceptor missiles were fired into the skies above Jerusalem without sirens after a missile was detected being launched from Yemen. Missile was intercepted.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

French Foreign Minister: The two-state solution is the only alternative to a permanent state of war, and this is what we are working towards.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Overwhelmed in part due to focus on US riots, but the Gaza operations continue unabated with more and more Hamas strongholds falling. Hamas resorting to IEDs and other boobytraps, while attempting to avoid direct contact.

Discussion developing on Israel’s options to hit Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

(FO) Iran’s Supreme National Security Council warned Israel yesterday that Iran would strike Israel’s “undeclared nuclear weapons” if Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear energy infrastructure. Iran further claimed to have conducted a clandestine operation inside of Israel to gather targeting information for these retaliatory strikes.

Trump has reportedly said that the chances of a negotiated deal are now slim.

OBSERVATION -

If the increase in B52s at Diego Garcia are an indicator, strike assets are being moved into the region once again. It looks like Trump is finally reaching that fish or cut bait moment. Iran is hoping to get some sort of interim agreement, enough to stay a military strike, but even that seems to be fading. Another round of talks this weekend.

Syria -

Syria’s government has decreed that women should wear burkinis or other swimwear that covers the body at public beaches and swimming pools, while permitting Western-style beachwear at private clubs and luxury hotels

OBSERVATION - Swing to the extremist islamic practices. Not surprising coming from the very strict ISIS background of the president of syria and his cohorts. Gives insight to eventual goals and power positioning of Syria in the future.

Mexico -

(FO) Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said at her press conference yesterday that Mexico would continue to use all diplomatic channels to the U.S. to protest the “criminalization of migration” in the United States. Sheinbaum added later that Mexico’s “first priority is to defend them [illegal aliens in the U.S.] in a comprehensive sense, not only for being Mexican but because they contribute so much to the Mexican economy with their remittances.”

OBSERVATION - Mexico may very well need to watch their next steps. Trump sees foreign interference in US policy very negatively and repercussions of Mexico stirring the pot in places like LA may not end well for them.

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