Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Back for the rest of the week except for next Friday and Saturday (possibly Sunday)

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025

SUPER UW a notorious student group at the University of Washington that was previously suspended for causing over $1 million in damages in an anti-Semitic occupation of a campus building, has escalated its agenda to not only call for violence, but to also teach it.

On June 5, 2025, the group held a “Teach-in” in which they praised terrorist organizations, downplayed atrocities, and advocated for armed violence as a “scientific necessity.”

The hosts also conducted a scripted reading aimed at Israelis: “As for you, the children of pigs, you will have only death, and your demise is just around the corner.” Reportedly, the audience applauded in agreement.

https://mrctv.org/blog/james-mortensen/pro-hamas-group-promotes-violence-scientific-necessity-university-washington

***
Portland (June 21) — Federal agents rushed in to make arrests of Antifa rioters who continue their daily attempted siege of the ICE building. The city has allowed Antifa to build an encampment nearby to recruit rioters.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1936791907385893223?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Antifa and the violent left are digging in on exploiting ICE operations in urban areas while growing supporters from pro-islamic elements festering on US colleges and universities.
ICE protests have dwindled to ANTIFA home base cities. Leftist friendly Washington becoming ground zero for the jihadists.

Latest on the radar are efforts by 50501 to stimulate “No War” protests. These are along the same lines of the recent “no kings” rallies.

Near term, there are no significant triggering events foreseen. ‘No Kings’ failed to provide Antifa with momentum to continue their violence on a national level. Response to bombing Iran doesn’t appear to have triggered much either.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

DHS Issues National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
There are currently no specific credible threats against the homeland

WASHINGTON – Today, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem issued a National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) Bulletin regarding a heightened threat environment across the United States due to the direct involvement of the United States in the ongoing conflict between the nations of Israel and Iran. There are currently no specific credible threats against the homeland.

“It is our duty to keep the nation safe and informed, especially during times of conflict,” said Secretary Kristi Noem. “The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict brings the possibility of increased threat to the homeland in the form of possible cyberattacks, acts of violence, and antisemitic hate crimes.”

This NTAS Bulletin will expire on September 22, 2025. The public should report any suspicious activity or threats of violence to local law enforcement, FBI Field Offices, or a local Fusion Center.

RELATED
Iran also has a long-standing commitment to target U.S. government officials it views as responsible for the death of an Iranian military commander killed in January 2020.

OBSERVATION -
Iran has long threatened asymmetrical attacks against the US and US interests in the event of the US striking it. Iran has made similar threats toward Israel and so far they have not panned out. In this case, biden let in hundreds if not thousands of middle easterners with probable terror affiliations into the country, where they can blend into the existing mob of middle eastern ‘immigrants’. The US is a target rich environment with a lot of soft targets and spread thin intel an law enforcement capabilities. The FBI has said they are monitoring activities, but this is not a guarantee that they will be able to preempt an event.
Keep your heads on a swivel and maintain heightened situational awareness.

***
A gunman wearing a tactical vest and carrying two guns targeted a suburban Detroit church Sunday morning, firing shots into the building’s exterior during a special vacation Bible School service before he was run over by one person and then fatally shot by church security.

Police have not yet publicly identified the suspect. Kelly said he was not aware of the shooter’s identity but said the attacker does not appear to be a member.

OBSERVATION - Confusing info on this attacker. Failure to release info in the past has indicated that the attacker is of a ‘protected class’ - i.e. either islamist or LGBT, liberal etc. Rumors suggest a moslem from nearby enclaves. Other reports of a disgruntled attendee.

Noting this event here until attacker’s ID has been released and verified.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Oil prices are expected to spike today upon threats of closure attempts by Iran of the Straits of Hormuz. Global markets also down due to the same threat.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Two carrier strike groups, the USS Nimitz and USS Vinson, are now in the Middle East

***
US 5th Fleet HQ is based in Al-Juffair, Bahrain.
Ships were no longer seen in port at Al-Juffair earlier this week.

***

The U.S. has positioned five ballistic missile defense-capable guided-missile destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea as Iranian forces launch salvos of ballistic missiles against Israel, a defense official confirmed to USNI News.

Two guided-missile destroyers, based in Rota, Spain — USS Paul Ignatius (DDG-117) and USS Oscar Austin (DDG-79) — entered the Mediterranean, joining three other BMD-capable destroyers in the region, the defense official said. Ship spotters observed Paul Ignatius leaving Rota on Tuesday.

USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51), USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116) and USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) were operating in the Eastern Mediterranean as Monday, according to the USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker. In addition, the U.S. has two guided-missile destroyers operating in the Red Sea — USS Forrest Sherman (DDG-98) and USS Truxtun (DDG-103).
All five destroyers in the Mediterranean can detect and intercept ballistic missiles with Standard Missile 3s. Paul Ignatius, Oscar Austin and Arleigh Burke are part of the Navy’s forward-deployed naval forces based in Rota. The five destroyers in Rota are part of the European Phased Adaptive Approach for ballistic missile defense to defend Europe against Iranian missiles.

https://news.usni.org/2025/06/20/5-u-s-ballistic-missile-defense-destroyers-now-in-the-mediterranean-sea

***
Not fully confirmed by my view but the United States is reportedly moving B-2 bombers to the Pacific island of Guam, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Saturday. If true, this may be the destination of the the westward moving B2s used for the deception ploy.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats were foaming at the mouth over the B2 strikes. They seemed to be silenced due to clips of 0bama and his record of bombing as well as the billions shipped in cargo planes to Iran.

***
A rumble has been ongoing tha past week between anti-semitic “woke” so called conservatives and followers of Trump’ MAGA program. The woke elements appear to be trying to co-opt the MAGA agenda from Trump over his support towards Israel, claiming it is not ‘America First’.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

The State Department has issued a worldwide security alert for U.S. citizens and interests abroad.

The U.S. State Department has issued security warnings for Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Iraq.

Due to regional events, U.S. government personnel in Türkiye have been cautioned to maintain a low profile and instructed to avoid personal travel to the U.S. Consulate Adana consular district, which comprises Türkiye’s 22 southeastern most provinces. Negative sentiment toward U.S. foreign policy may prompt actions against U.S. or Western interests in Türkiye. In the past, such activities have included demonstrations, calls for boycotts of U.S. businesses, anti-U.S. rhetoric, and graffiti. Large gatherings may result in enhanced police presence, road closures, and traffic disruptions. Any gathering, even those intended to be peaceful, could escalate and turn violent on short notice.

TRUMP Watch –

In a White House address on the evening of June 21, President Donald Trump touted the success of a series of U.S. strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, and warned of even greater attacks to come should Iran choose to retaliate.

“Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor [of terrorism]. Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success,” Trump announced.

As he delivered his White House address, Trump warned Iran not to continue fighting.

“Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier,” the president said.

Trump said there are many targets left in Iran, but the ones that U.S. forces struck on Saturday were the most difficult.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/after-us-strikes-trump-threatens-far-greater-attacks-if-iran-doesnt-make-peace-5876476?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - Iran misjudged Trump’s resolve on this. Hope they don’t this time.

Remember, Iran attacked us in 1979 and has continued thru today via its puppet proxy groups.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to ongoing Israeli / Iranian conflict

The ongoing Iran conflict is causing a heightened threat environment in the United States. Low-level cyber attacks against U.S. networks by pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely, and cyber actors affiliated with the Iranian government may conduct attacks against U.S. networks.

Illegal Immigration –

Nearly HALF the Iranians caught at the southern border were released into the United States by The Biden Administration. -Fox News

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Iran’s foreign minister headed to Moscow late Sunday night to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the wake of U.S. strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

The Daily Telegraph reports Abbas Araghchi confirmed Iran “reserves all options to defend its security, its interests, its people…All options are on the table” while applauding Russia as “a friend of Iran.”

His visit to Russia will raise significant concerns over what kind of support Moscow is willing to offer Tehran at this moment, which could include sending defence materials, getting involved directly militarily or throwing diplomatic weight behind Iran, the Telegraph report stated.

But to what extent will the Russians be willing to intervene?

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/06/22/irans-foreign-minister-heading-for-moscow-talks-with-putin/

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Following the historic attack on Iranian nuclear sites former Russian President wrote a long thread on X condemning the US military strike.

Medvedev says there are “a number of foreign countries” ready to supply the Iranian regime with nuclear weapons.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/06/russias-medvedev-blasts-trump-after-iranian-military-strikes/

OBSERVATION - Who will these nations be?

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 50-70 range, widely scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 352 Shahed-type drones(approximately 160 of them with explosive warhead), 11 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 5 Iskander-K cruise missiles, - Ukrainian Air Forces
Attacks centered mostly on Kyiv and surrounding regions. At least seven people have reportedly been killed and several injured in the overnight attack in the Kyiv region, the interior minister has said.

Russian losses per 23/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1010 men
+1 tank
+5 AFVs
+58 artillery
+2 MLRS

Summary —

Russia maintains an overall high level of drone / missile attacks on Kyiv and Ukraine in general.

On the ground, action doesn’t appear to resemble an organized offensive as announced by Russia. Observers note that Russia does appear to be pulsing its attacks to bring a larger force locally to the front, then pausing to regroup. Very little progress has been made by Russia and in some cases, Ukraine has locally counterattacked and regained territory. The battle sees poorly trained Russian infantry facing the fury of Ukrainian drones.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ongoing airstrikes across Iran

- Ongoing airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza

- Bodies of at least three murdered hostages recovered over the weekend.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Netanyahu, in an address to the nation on the status of the overall fighting noted that he hasn’t taken his eyes off the efforts in Gaza. Smooth operations against Iran have freed up aircraft to intensify bombing of Gaza targets.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syria hasn’t challenged Israel’s operations that intercept Iranian drones and missiles over its territory.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

See Iraq on rumblings of potential attacks on US elements.

Houthis declare the Red Sea to be closed to shipping.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

U.S. Embassy in Qatar urges all American citizens to shelter in place until further notice, according to Reuters

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

See Iran below. Hezbollah staying to the sidelines and Hamas being chewed up.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

Quick summary of the Operation Midnight Hammer B2 attacks on Iran’s three main nuclear sites — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

US sent a widely reported flight of about 6 B2s westward from the US, even with reports of a refueling pattern that would be expected from fully loaded bombers. Meanwhile, much earlier and with great secrecy, a group of 7 B2s (each with 2 MOPs) linked up with tankers and a fighter escort and flew east.

About the time the westbound bombers reached refueling sites near Hawaii, the strike force was virtually over Iran and executing its attack with great precision.
Six bombers struck Fordow. It appears from post strike satellite photos that there are six very clear and large/deep craters along the ridge line over the centrifuge gallery. The pattern suggests that a double strike was used - the first to do initial penetration, and the second to finish the job. It also appears that the strike locations took advantage of ventilation shafts the further weakened the bedrock.

Analysis by The Institute for Science and International Security: Hi-res satellite images of Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant reveal six penetration holes from U.S. GBU-57 bombs near ventilation shafts, enabling an easier pathway for the MOPS to the deeply buried halls.

Debris visible on mountain slopes also suggests severe damage or destruction of enrichment halls. Tunnel entrances had been filled by Iran beforehand, anticipating an attack.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1936974071113121896?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

The 7th B2 dropped its ordinance on Natanz

A cruise missile submarine supported the attack by firing about 14 tomahawk missiles at Natanz, and Isfahan.

In total, 75 precision munitions were dropped during the operation and 125 US military aircraft participated in it.

US alerted the Gulf countries before the attack on Iran, amid fears of retaliation against American targets in their territories

- - - - Straits of Hormuz - - - -

The Iranian parliament has unanimously reached the decision to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

The British Maritime Transport Authority reported serious disruptions to the GPS system in the Strait of Hormuz.

The countries that heavily rely on oil passing through this strait include:

1. China – largest single importer of oil through the Strait
2.India
3.Japan
4.South Korea
5.Singapore

Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would significantly harm China, one of Iran’s closest allies — the last thing Tehran wants right now.

https://x.com/immeme0/status/1936814227873792289?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

— - - Iranian Attacks on Israel - - -

Iran’s vaunted missile capabilities have been severely degraded. Missile attacks now generally consist of salvos of less than 10, quite often only a few missiles with longer time in between. This makes it easy for Israeli defenses to intercept threatening missiles.

- - - - Israeli Strikes - - - -

IAF continues free range over Iran. They appear to have come up with the formula to nail Iranian missile firing locations. In many instances just before launch, taking out launcher and reload missiles. Fixed missile sites continue to be hammered as well.

Over the weekend, IAF did target some Iranian naval vessels. This action may increase if a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz is attempted.

- - - - Other - - - -

Iran’s Foreign Minister:
There is no point in asking Iran to return to the negotiating table. The door to diplomacy is no longer open.

- - - - Estimated future actions - - - -

Iran’s leadership, both civil and military, are in disarray. The entrance of the US into the fight - so far in a limited manner - has further put Iran into a corner. Iran is a wounded animal and right now the jihadists are still running the show and may soon move towards the apocalyptic.

1 Missile strikes against US bases in the region
2 Attempt to close off the Straits of Hormuz
3 Attempt to seize / attacking shipping in the Persian gulf
4 Activate terror cells in the US (and Europe)
5 Cyber attacks

The US strike ripped open the fact that Iran is very much exposed and should it attempt action against US interests, they better pay attention to Trump’s warning. They didn’t last time.

This includes an attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz. Things have changed significantly since Iran last attempted this. First, note that the US is far more independent than it was in the past. Second, those dependent on oil passage include at the top of the list China - who has been speaking loudly in Iran’s ear and who the mullah’s have been attempting to curry favor from. Second, the big missile threat of Iran has been severely hammered. The threat does remain of shorter ranged missiles and anti-ship systems that Iran has embedded all over the area, much like their medium to long range missiles

Israel will continue to reduce Iranian military assets associated with ballistic missile firing as well as production, associated sites for manufacturing nuclear bomb components and infrastructure. Iran’s missile threat has been reduced to something like what happened to Hezbollah - attempts for a lucky strike from a handful of missiles. As Iran loses more launcher and launch facilities, the missile threat will decrease.

Of final note, there was talk of “regime change’ going around the political circles. The elements of the so called ‘woke’ right claiming we are going down the same road as Iraq and Afghanistan. They are making a false equivalency. Iraq and Afghanistan were boots on the ground from the start operations. Iran OTOH has been just a single, major tactical strike. Any regime change inferred to by Trump contextually refers to the Iranians doing the work, not US ground forces imposing a change. The son of the Shah is trying to organize a resistance element to overthrow the mullahs, the world would be better with the islamists tossed to the curb.

Iraq -

Rumint. American military and intelligence officials have detected signs that Iran-backed militias are preparing to attack U.S. bases in Iraq, and possibly Syria, in retaliation for the U.S. strikes in Iran. But so far the groups have held off, and Iraqi officials are working hard to dissuade militia action, a U.S. official said on Sunday. -NYT

OBSERVATION - If they get froggy, Trump has made it clear that an attack by an Iranian proxy would be considered an attack by Iran itself. Iraq is wisely trying to get them to calm down.

Crazy 24 hours and it hasn’t stopped.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New no king style protest for July 17th

The ‘no kings’ mob is now trying to organize another protest for July 17th. Details as they develop.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
- July 4, a very symbolic day for the US could trigger terror attacks on celebrants by Iranian supporting elements.

DHS Issues National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
There are currently no specific credible threats against the homeland

NOTE - Even though there is a shaky ceasefire in effect, Iran continues to be unfettered to pursue asymmetric attacks via various types of terror acts here and across the world. Potential for attacks remains very high.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Oil prices dropped 10% or so following the anemic revenge attack on US forces in Qatar. Reinforce now by the ceasefire.

POLITICAL FRONT –

President Trump launched Midnight Hammer over the weekend. B-2 Bombers from Missouri struck the Iranian nuclear facilities of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in a strike that was executed with precision and total secrecy. Ohio-class submarines launched a barrage of Tomahawk missiles to ensure no air defense systems could endanger the bombing run. The Republican leadership was informed about the strikes—the Democrats were not.

Or at least that was the initial story. You know this would be a point of contention with the media. I couldn’t care less, but White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt cleared the air, saying the White House did try to contact Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), leader of the House Democrats, but he didn’t pick up the phone:

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2025/06/23/the-trump-white-house-tried-to-call-this-top-democrat-about-the-iran-strikes-heres-what-happened-n2659277#google_vignette

BTW - Schumer managed to pick up the phone.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to ongoing Israeli / Iranian conflict

Illegal Immigration –

The US Supreme Court has cleared the way for President Donald Trump’s administration to resume deportations of migrants to countries other than their homeland.

By 6-3, the justices reversed a lower court order requiring the government to give migrants a “meaningful opportunity” to tell officials what risks they might face being deported to a third country.

China -

Chinese workers across industries are facing salary cuts and layoffs as mounting economic woes engulf China’s public and private sectors, sources tell Radio Free Asia.

That’s forcing families to slash spending. It is also triggering deflationary concerns as businesses enter into desperate price wars.
Economist Wu Qinxue warned that the current situation highlights continued decline in local governments’ fiscal levels and is not just a temporary belt-tightening.

“The (local) government has no money to manage people, and no one is willing to spend money,” he said. “From salary cuts within the system to the collapse of consumption among ordinary people, the entire society is quietly forming a top-down (consumer belt-) ‘tightening chain.’”

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/06/widespread-pay-cuts-in-china-drive-down-consumer-spending-fuel-deflationary-fears/#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - China’s economy continues to implode in the post wuhan world. Makes Xi’s plans for regional dominance and retaking of Taiwan that much more difficult and costly.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 50-70 range, widely scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 97 Shahed-type drones overnight, - Ukrainian Air Forces. Numerous ballistic missile strikes also noted.

Summary —

Current info on the war buried under the rush of items on the Israeli / Iran war. However, evidence is that apart from an increase in ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv and other main cities, fighting otherwise has remained relatively stable as it has for months. No threats of a Russian breakthrough anywhere along the lines.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ceasefire with Iran holding by thinest margin

- Iran fired missile in violation, Israel with a restrained retaliatory strike.

- Trump tells Israel to hold fire.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The big question is will Iran hold to the ceasefire.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF hit numerous targets throughout Gaza

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

After announcing they would shut down shipping thru the Red Sea, Houthis have been quiet and no attacks on shipping have occurred

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Attention shifts back to Gaza and the elimination of Hamas. See Iran below on the latest in that fight.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

Things exploded (literally) in a fast and furious manner yesterday.

Early on Qatari Foreign Ministry announced closure of its airspace. Other gulf nations followed suit as indicators pointed to an imminent rocket attack from Iran towards US bases in the region.

Iran then launched 14 (one for each of the MOPs dropped by the US - according to Iran) towards the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Later, it was announced that this airbase was the only one in the region that was attacked. 13 of the 14 were taken down by Patriot systems, the 14th missed the base entirely and no word on where it impacted.

As time went on, it became apparent that this attack was one ‘allowed’ so that Iran could ‘save face’ in the light of the US airstrikes and Israel’s dominating the airspace. Iranian sources to the New York Times: Tehran coordinated the attack with the US and Qatar to minimize the damage. Iran needed the ability to respond “symbolically” but allow the US to get out of it. The sources noted that this is a similar pattern of action to Iran’s revenge response for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 in launches against the Ain al-Assad base in Iraq.

Trump later said he was ok with this so that Iran could “get it out of its system”. Accordingly, Trump said there would be no US retaliation - kinda a no blood, no foul.

Ceasefire -

Following the Qatar attack, Trump declared that Iran was willing to go into a ceasefire, Israel was caused to comply. In the waining hour before the start of the ceasefire, Iran launched about 14 missiles towards Israel. In some of the final missile attacks a 7 story apt bldg in Beer Sheba was struck. Mass casualties and 5 deaths reported.

A couple hours into the ceasefire, two ballistic missiles were launched from Iran at Israel. Both were intercepted, and violated the agreement.

After initially telling Israel not to respond, according to the
Times of Israel - “After Trump and Netanyahu speak, Israeli jets carry out a strike on Iranian radar in response to ballistic missile attack”

— - - Iranian Attacks on Israel - - -

Initial numbers count on the Iranian response towards Israel over the past 12 days

A total of about 500 missiles were launched at Israel.

The interception rate is about 83%

The direct hit rate is about 6%

An additional 11% fell in open areas.

Hundreds of launchers and hundreds of missiles were destroyed on Iranian soil

Dozens of ballistic missiles exploded during launch or fell on the way.

It should be noted that according to Iranian planning, the goal was to launch nearly 1000 missiles within hours of the start of a war - a plan that was thwarted by the IDF. In fact, they barely reached this number within 12 days.

The number of casualties on the home front was 97% lower than initial estimates, thanks to the practical dismantling of the ballistic missile system, which will take years to rebuild.

- - - - Israeli Strikes - - - -

IAF continued to hammer Iran up to the ceasefire. Israel’s destruction of Iranian air defenses will continue to permit it virtually unfettered access for a considerable time in the future, should they need to attack again.

Israel effectively beheaded the Iranian military leadership as well as the principle nuclear scientists leading the program for the development of the bomb.

- - - - Overall Observations - - - -

Although Iran is beating its chest claiming complete victory over Israel, the other nations in the regions know otherwise. Iran got its butt handed to them. Iran could not muster any of the retaliatory threats it has made over the years. While perhaps not totally eliminating every piece of equipment associated with a nuclear development program, it is going to take Iran years and billions and billions of dollars to recover should it desire to continue to work towards a bomb. On top of that, multiple billions of dollars to rebuild its military’s ballistic missile corps and production, along with develop a air defense network to protect its nuclear sites.

Economically, a lot of infrastructure was hit - petroleum industry mainly - to force Iran to divert billions to fix their oil industry. Essentially the only means of income revenue that it will rely upon if it wants to pursue its nuclear program again.

Iran’s proxy war fighting network is also at a disadvantage. Cut off from Iranian money and material, they will be unable to do very much in the near and intermediate term. Hamas is dying, Hezbollah nearly completely cut off and withering as it struggles to develop new support measures. Houthi’s time is limited as their ability to construct new missiles was heavily dependent on Iran as well as now lacking money to fix its economic base. Finally, Iranian backed militias in Iraq are having to dial it back, again, no money and munitions and Iraqi elements beginning to leverage their new power against them.

With all that said, Iran in the near term is still an unconventional threat to the US, via cyber and terrorist strikes. Just like they threw the missile in violation of the ceasefire, they could launch these attacks with a one off level of protection in a way - “we didn’t do that” kind of claim, one they’ve worked out for decades via proxy elements. Of the two, the most dangerous towards Iran would be activation of terror cells. Trumps actions so far indicate that he wouldn’t tolerate such an action and would hit Iran. More likely cyber issues as well as much smaller scale terror - ‘lone wolf’ attacks motivated by cells and radicalization as well as smaller, but numerous infrastructure failures. Even potential use of forest fires and related late this summer.

Will this ceasefire hold? Depends on if the powers that be making the decisions in Iran remain the ones making the decisions. Should they violate the ceasefire in a more signifiant or consistent way, Israel will strike back , with or without Trump’s blessing.

Iraq -

Iraqi channels are now reporting that another air-defense radar has been struck at Imam Ali Air Base in the Dhi Qar Governorate of Southern Iraq, making this the fourth U.S/Iraqi military base to have targeted tonight by drones and the second air-defense radar to have been destroyed.

OBSERVATION - No specific details on who launched the attacks, but believed to be Iranian backed militias in Iraq.

Fingers getting a relief from the past few days typing

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New no king style protest for July 17th

A top far-left city official in southeast Los Angeles County is now under federal investigation after allegedly posting a video on social media calling on Mexican gangs to mobilize against ICE agents. If this isn’t textbook insurrectionist behavior, it’s hard to imagine what is.

Fox News reporter Bill Melugin broke the story on X late Tuesday afternoon. He stated that Cudahy Vice Mayor Cynthia Gonzalez is under investigation for urging 18th Street and Florencia 13 gang members to defend their territory against ICE, reportedly telling gang leaders to “get your f***ing members in order.”

https://x.com/BillMelugin_/status/1937577489099878740

OBSERVATION - Another instance of a democrat leader calling for violence.

***
Portland (June 24) — Federal agents quickly shut down the Antifa riot after they attempt to move on the property to try to attack the ICE facility again in the ongoing insurrection.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1937774241740357699?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Expect this low level activity to continue for a long time. Numbers of Antifa are not too significant.

US arrests 11 Iranians in US illegally, Homeland Security says. Some were key suspects in potential Iranian terror cells.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Oil prices are dropping further, and stocks are rallying worldwide Tuesday on hopes that Israel’s war with Iran will not damage the global flow of crude, even if a tentative truce seemed to fray under fire in the morning. A barrel of benchmark U.S. oil fell 4.9% to $65.12. Brent crude, the international standard, dropped 4.8% to $67.14.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Ford CSG to be deployed to the European theater.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Lawmakers agreed to table the measure in a 344–79 vote. A vote to table is a procedural mechanism allowing House members to vote against consideration of a bill without having to vote on the bill itself.

The resolution was offered by Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, who was infamously ejected from Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress earlier this year for repeatedly interrupting the president.

A majority of House Democrats joined Republican lawmakers to kill Green’s resolution, a sign of how politically caustic the effort appears to be. Just 79 Democrats voted to proceed with the impeachment vote, while 128 voted to halt it in its tracks.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/128-democrats-join-house-gop-block-progressives-bid-impeach-trump

OBSERVATION - The tea leaves say Trump has tremendous support for his handling of the Iran / Israel war to include bombing Fordow and other sites. For the democrats to pursue an impeachment would only force their polls into single digit range.

***
Zohran Mamdani has won the NYC Democratic mayoral primary.
Mamdani is a Shia Muslim, a co-founder of Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), and a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
He supports creating city-owned grocery stores and has been a strong advocate for defunding the police.
Mamdani has played a leading role in anti-Israel protests.
He has stated that if elected mayor, he would have Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrested if he visited New York.

OBSERVATION -
IF elected in the general election - which right now looks likely - NYC will be overwhelmed by such a flood of filth it will become unlivable. Besides the classic socialism bent, radical Islam will rise to the surface and all the repression it brings with it - just look at London for an example.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump arrived at The Hague Royal Palace for the NATO Summit
Some news sources are suggesting that the agenda for the summit has been tailored to meet Trump’s agenda and objectives in order to prevent him from departing early as he did the G7.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to ongoing Israeli / Iranian conflict

American hospitals and essential infrastructure are reportedly on alert, anticipating Iran-backed cyberattacks in response to the US strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing informed sources.
In the days since the Saturday strikes, the US power grid’s cyberthreat-sharing monitor has reportedly begun monitoring the dark web for signs of Iranian activity, and hospital executives have been briefed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

While Iran and Israel are abiding by a shaky ceasefire agreement, experts have warned that Tehran may still seek revenge against the US for its involvement in the war, beyond attacks on US bases in the region. Cyberattacks allow Tehran to target the US in a way that is not limited by the countries’ geographical distance and follows a previous pattern of the regime. The FBI blamed Tehran for a 2021 cyberattack against a Boston children’s hospital.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-858910

OBSERVATIONS - The threats from Iran are not yet over. Cyberattacks can provide a level of immunity to Iran due to the often anonymous nature of the attackers.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Logistics –

Analysts are noting that Russian production of tanks for the war - mostly rehabbed older, mothballed vehicles - at about 130 per month is likely to hit the wall within a year. Storage of outdated equipment is running out as is material to upgrade their systems for battle. This is a continuation of a logistics deadline noted last year saying 2026 could spell the end of Russia’s capabilities to supply heavy equipment to the front.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 50-70 range, widely scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine neutralized 52 out of 71 Russian drones overnight on June 25. Launched from multiple directions, including occupied Crimea, the drones were intercepted by air defense, EW units, and mobile fire groups.

Russian losses per 25/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+950 men
+1 tank
+6 AFVs
+58 artillery
+1 MLRS

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Yalta village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Summary —

Slower day both in the drone wars as well as on the ground. The vaunted Russian spring/summer offensive is fizzling out if it even existed to begin with.

At this stage, it is uncertain what immediate impact losses of Iranian drone manufacturing facilities and missile factories will have on the Russian efforts. Russia has established its own Shahed factories and N Korea has been producing large numbers of missiles, so the logistics loss from Iran may not be felt significantly. Russian hopes for additional productions sources in Iran does appear to be on hold for at least years.

AFA any peace talks, very little movement if any.

Europe / NATO General –

NATO Secretary General: Today we will decide to raise defense spending to 5% of members’ GDP.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Iran launches some drones towards Israel in violation of the cease fire, all shot down.

- Focus increases on Gaza operations.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli Air Forces: The Air Force intercepted two unmanned aerial vehicles earlier this evening that were making their way towards the country’s territory, apparently from Iran. The interceptions were carried out outside the country’s territory. Alerts were activated in open areas according to policy

The US asked Israel not to respond

***
Trump claims that a breakthrough will soon happen in Gaza.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF activity increasing in part due to more aircraft available.

IED kills 7 Israeli soldiers

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Drone strikes take out more Hezbollah leaders

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

With action against Iran still simmering, Israeli life is progressing back to a level of normal. Though damaged by Iranian missiles, the damage and loss of life were far lower than anticipated by the military and govt officials. Iran continues to toe the line and Israel maintains restraint at the US’ request.

The focus returns to Gaza and the continued reduction of Hamas forces and controlled areas. As the IDF has moved into more deeply controlled areas by Hamas, resistance has also increased. Witkoff is making his presence known once again, so Israel will be redoubling its actions to eliminate Hamas and cleanse Gaza of its military infrastructure. Witkoff / Trump may be seeking to impose a ceasefire on the Gaza action in a similar manner to Iran. Right now, neither side is expressing any interest in a ceasefire/hostage release scenario, so it is questionable what proposals will work other than Trump heavy handedly forcing Israel to stop. In his drive to be a world peacemaker, Trump may exert this pressure sooner rather than later.

Lebanon / Hezbollah continues as in past weeks. Hezbollah leader pops up and taken out with a drone strike

Syria - talks continue with the new regime in Syria over land being held by Israel. Seems Israel is willing to pull out of most of Syrian held territory with the exception of Mt Hermon.

Houthis have been relatively silent, given the essential surrender of Iran

Iranian supported militias in Iraq holding their fire, seeing essentially non support from Iran.

NOTE - The situation is still volatile and things can quickly change - especially in regards to Iran.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

Resumption of negotiations?

Witkoff: In the negotiations, Iran will not be able to enrich uranium, that’s an absolute red line

Iran: We will not give up on enrichment, this is an absolute red line.

Where have we heard this song before

***
Iran is celebrating its ‘victory’ with parades and fireworks

***
Iran has demanded payment from the United States to compensate for the damage caused by last weekend’s B-2 bomber strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Iranian deputy Foreign Minister Khatibzadeh says that Iran will pursue diplomatic and legal channels for the compensation.

***
The Iranian Parliament has officially passed a bill to suspend all further cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

***
Commentary on Iran’s actions -

There are many people out there that seem to think that the Iranians have essentially surrendered by agreeing to this ceasefire, but that is not the case at all. The Iranians still hate the United States, they still hate Israel, and they still plan to move forward with their nuclear program. Ultimately, their long-term goals have not changed at all. But a ceasefire is certainly strategically advantageous for the Iranians at this moment, and so they eagerly embraced President Trump’s proposal. Unfortunately, those that believe that this ceasefire is the end of the story are way off base.

In the western world, we tend to view a ceasefire as a complete cessation of hostilities that leads to permanent peace.

But in Islam, a ceasefire is viewed very differently.

Islamic law allows for a temporary “tactical pause” in hostilities known as a “Hudna”, and it is considered to be a time to rearm and regroup in order to continue the fight later.

https://discernreport.com/do-the-iranians-view-this-ceasefire-as-a-temporary-tactical-pause-known-as-a-hudna-in-islam/

OBSERVATION - This has been apparent time and time again. Hamas has played this card on the short term since Oct 7. Egypt and others utilized the 1967 ceasefire to prepare for the 1973 Yon Kippor war. Just two of many examples. This cycle will repeat as long as the mullahs rule the country.

****
The latest reports out of CNN, NBC and other lame stream media, is that they saw a brief preliminary assessment of the bombing of Iranian nuclear sites. Allegedly, the bombing only set the Iranian nuclear program back a few months.
Claims based on a ‘leaked’ report from Defense Intelligence Agency sources.

Lets cut thru the crap. DIA could not produce such a definitive document in only a couple days. Reports say it is only 5 pages long. Hardly a through evaluation. Second, the report that was called by the MSM as ‘Top Secret’ would have been classified far higher - Special Compartmented Information - under codeword classification. Yes there are stupid deep state drones that would risk decades in jail for such a release, but it is doubtful that they could have done it on such short notice. Here are the facts

- Surface support structures for the construction of components of a bomb are a pile of smoldering rubble.

- Underground facilities holding the centrifuges - especially those at Fordow - are highly sensitive devices and the pressures and shaking from the explosions of MOPs took out most if not all of them - particularly those outside the immediate blast area. A concrete tunnel structure served to funnel the explosive forces all along the gallery.

- Damages to entry tunnels and other subsurface structures will need substantial repairs and reinforcements before the facilities will be safe to enter to allow ANY restart of any operations.

There are more, but the bottom line is this has pushed the development efforts back at least a half dozen years because Iran will need that long to rebuild facilities.

The alleged DIA report should be considered with a grain of salt. Especially if CNN and the NYTs are the one leading on it.

One question remains - what happened to the 60% enriched uranium? Did Iran ferret it out before the bombs fell (unlikely to a degree, given the overwhelming surprise of the attack). Or is it buried under tons of rubble?

If they were able to relocate it to another place, Iran would still need advanced centrifuges to bring the concentration to 90%. Then it would need all the rubbled facilities up and running to further put together a bomb. I suspect the Mossad has a pretty tight location on the material and can strike as needed to prevent further enrichment. Any physical strike could create a radioactive hazard zone.

No post tomorrow or Saturday. Sunday’s post may be a little later in the day.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New no king style protest for July 17th

With the weekend approaching, there are scattered protests scheduled across the country. These protests are characterized as peaceful and unlikely to produce violence, though there may be violent agitators blended into the crowd.

LA has quieted down substantially. However, I don’t see stand down of NG and marines for at least a month as planned ICE operations are reportedly scheduled for the next month.

Portland siege of ICE facility continues, but is lacking mass support and is gradually dwindling.

The next big national event is being planned for July 17th, details pending.

ICE has arrested 130 Iranian nationals across the U.S. in the last 7 days amid security concerns — Fox

OBSERVATION - Sadly, this is likely a drop in the bucket for the potential Iranian (and affiliated) terrorists that have snuck into the country.

Assessments continue to suggest that mass casualty events ranging from ‘lone wolf’ to larger, multi-person assaults are still very possible. These terror cells may already be operating on automatic - i.e. not relying on orders from Iran et al - but seeking targets of opportunity.

Assessments continue of lower level threats against infrastructure - power and water, etc., via cyber attack or physical attack on key nodes.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The trend of (modestly) rising initial jobless claims stalled last week, dropping from 246k to 236k Continuing jobless claims kept rising to 1.974 million Americans - the highest since Nov 2021

OBSERVATION - Some noting that we may be seeing the initial wave of DOGE related layoffs.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The leaker of the DIA report on initial effectiveness of the US airstrikes in Iran is soon to feel the hot breath of the FBI and other investigative services. Most likely a holdover deep stater. DIA is not that big of an organization, only so many hands could have gotten a hold of the document.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

“A peer-reviewed study of 1.3 million women in the Czech Republic found that in 2022, vaccinated women had 33% fewer successful conceptions per 1,000 than unvaccinated women.”
“This is not speculation—it’s data.”

https://x.com/drsimonegold/status/1938008483720483082?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Impacts to female reproduction were out there very early in the wuhan plandemic being directly caused by the jab. These reports were of course buried by the Fauci regime and MSM.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Tulsi Gabbard, US Director of National Intelligence:
New intelligence confirms what the president has said many times - Iran’s nuclear facilities have been destroyed. If Iran decides to restore its nuclear program, it will have to completely rebuild Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan - which will take years.

OBSERVATION - Some reports that Gabbard is on the ‘outs’ with Trump over the Iranian operation. These ‘reports’ have to be weighed against the very evident efforts of the MSM to try to bring dissension and disagreement within the Trump administration to the top of reporting, and disrupt operations.

***
Democrat “ leadership” continues to be dominated by the radical left as evidenced in the recent NYC democrat primary. Democrats have yet to lay out policies and actions to better the country, instead continuing to lay out opposition to anything Trump as their party stance.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump got what he wanted from the NATO meeting - forcing them to pony up and contribute a lot more to the organization rather than relying on the US to fund the bills.

Illegal Immigration –

Florida has officially begun building a new high-security detention facility — nicknamed “Alligator Alcatraz” — with capacity for up to 5,000 illegal migrants.

OBSERVATION - Facility appears to be using trailers and tents for the housing of illegals. Located at an airfield deep in the heart of gator country.

China -

China ended its deployment of two carrier strike groups (CSG) to the Philippine Sea and Western Pacific. The Liaoning CSG spent 25 days at sea while the Shandong CSG spent 16 days at sea.

OBSERVATION - Deployment locations still suggest this was an exercise to defend a Taiwanese blockade from a US intervention.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 50-70 range, widely scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s air defenses neutralized 24 Russian UAVs overnight, during an attack involving 41 Shahed drones and decoy UAVs launched from Bryansk, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia) and Hvardiiske (occupied Crimea).

Russian losses per 26/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1100 men
+1 tank
+7 AFVs
+48 artillery

Summary —

Fighting is essentially stagnant on the ground. Russia manages to eek out very minor gains in the Donbas region, at high costs. Drone wars continue with a relatively low number of Shaheds overnight. However, low shoot down numbers by Ukraine mean the damage continues.

Zero movement on talks for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.

Pakistan / India –

U.S. intelligence believes Pakistan is developing an ICBM capable of reaching the U.S., likely to deter American involvement in a future conflict with India. Officials warn that deploying such a weapon would make Pakistan a nuclear threat, not a partner.

OBSERVATION - Pakistan has drifted towards more radical islam over the past decade as influence from AQ and the Taliban have spread into it. It reflects an apocalyptic thought that engaging two nuclear powers when you barely have enough for one is a winnable scenario.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ceasefire holds with Iran

- Operations continue against Hamas, likely picking up intensity as resources are redirected from the Iran effort.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Senior Hamxs official Taher al-Nunu: No hostages will be released and no ceasefire deal will be accepted unless the following demands are met:

1. Complete and permanent cessation of hostilities

2. Full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip

3. Complete reconstruction and unrestricted aid

4. A prisoner exchange deal

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Joint statement to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz:

“Following information received today that Hamas is once again taking control of the humanitarian aid entering the northern Gaza Strip and stealing it from the civilians,

The Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense instructed the IDF to present within 48 hours an action plan to prevent Hamas from taking over the aid.”

NOTE - This follows videos on social media of Hamas forces riding hijacked food trucks.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army announces the killing of a commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan Force in a raid on the town of Barashit in southern Lebanon.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Dangerous to say that things are ‘settling down’, but with the intense actions against Iran now at a ceasefire, Hezbollah and Syria subdued, the main game is Hamas. Though operations against Hamas apparently slowed during the 12 day war, they are now picking up again. I expect to see them ramp up even further as Wickoff starts pressuring for a new ceasefire/hostage agreement. Given Hama’s hard line stance (see above), it is unlikely that they will cede any thing towards a deal. At this stage the only way to force the matter is militarily .

Israeli domination of Iranian airspace will permit operation of Israeli long range drones for some time to come. They could also come equipped with strike missiles for pinpoint attacks as being done in Lebanon. Follow - on peace talks will depend heavily on who’s in charge in Iran where there appears to be dissension between the warhawks and more moderate elements.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

After over a week in hiding, Ayatollah Khamenei came out of his hole and told the world Iran was victorious in the 12 day war. Officials claim Khamenei is sheltering in a bunker without electronic communication to avoid assassination.

***
Iranian Revolutionary Guard: We will not retreat for a single moment in the pursuit of America’s withdrawal from the region and the destruction of Israel.

***
Iran’s nuclear facilities were “badly damaged” by US and Israeli strikes, foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei told Al Jazeera English on Wednesday.

***
Reports of air defense activity in various cities in Iran due to drone activity - likely Israeli long range recon drones. Their presence is not banned by the current ceasefire.

***
President Pezeshkian has seized the moment, calling the current situation a “golden opportunity for change” while hardliners attack the legitimacy of the surprise cease-fire.

Four senior officials confirmed that rival factions are now battling for control of Iran’s future direction.

Source: Iranian State TV/NYT

https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1938074438408237084?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Relatively calm weekend so far, quick summary of what I’ve noticed

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New no king style protest for July 17th

No significant actions so far this weekend. Expect things to pick up around July 4th as miscreants try to use the holiday to gain attention.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The USSC slammed the door on activists district judges issuing nation wide injunction Friday. Stating “universal injunctions likely exceed the equitable authority that Congress has granted to federal courts, the Court grants the Government’s applications for a partial stay of the injunctions entered below regarding the implementation and enforcement of President Trump’s Executive Order No. 14160, but only to the extent that the injunctions are broader than necessary to provide complete relief to each plaintiff with standing to sue.”

OBSERVATION - Liberals are in convulsions over this decision. But it was solidly based in the constitutional separation of powers. These activist liberal judges are DISTRICT judges and have no jurisdiction outside their DISTRICT. Only higher courts have that authority.

***
White House Deputy Chief of Staff and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller has warned of swift consequences after a Biden-appointed activist judge defied the Supreme Court on the deportation of illegal alien. U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy attempted to usurp the authority of the Supreme Court by unilaterally declaring that his ruling barring Trump from deporting illegal aliens was still in effect even after the high court stopped his orders. “The Court’s May 21, 2025 Order on Remedy remains in full force and effect, notwithstanding today’s stay of the Preliminary Injunction,” he stated.

https://thepopulisttimes.com/expect-fireworks-miller-warns-rogue-judge-who-defied-scotus-on-deportations-to-third-countries/

***
The Senate voted 51-49 on Saturday evening to begin debate on President Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. Three Republicans, Ron Johnson (Wi.), Rand Paul (Ky.), and Thom Tillis (N.C.) voted no, but Johnson switched his vote to yes at the last minute, and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) also voted yes, oddly enough, so while Vice President JD Vance was on hand in order to cast a tie-breaking vote in case of a 50-50 tie, he was not needed.

OBSERVATION - With republicans like these, who needs democrats?

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-80 range, mostly sunny.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

One of the most violent combined missiles and drones attack by Russia
At night, Russia launched a massive combined missile and drone attack. In total, Russia used 537 assets.

Shot down:
436/477 Shahed & other type drones (+decoys)
0/4 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
1/7 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
33/41 Iskander-K/Kh-101 cruise missiles
4/5 Kalibr cruise missiles
0/3 S-300 ballistic missiles

The massive Russian strike overnight hit multiple regions across Ukraine: injuries in Cherkasy and Ivano-Frankivsk, civilian infrastructure damaged in Sumy, Dnipro, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Lviv. Targets included homes, colleges, churches, and critical infrastructure. Ukraine also reported that it lost an F16 to Russian fire as it was shooting down Russian drones/cruise missiles.

Russian losses per 29/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1220 men
+6 tanks
+7 AFVs
+24 artillery

Summary —

Russia is switching to more of a surging attack via drone/missiles over the past month. Days of low numbers with sudden spikes like this one. Targets in western Ukraine especially hit - areas understood to potential have factories and storage of munitions.

The weekend has seen moderately heavy fighting, though this last report has the most tanks destroyed that I’ve seen in a while.

One thing that I haven’t commented on is that the ‘meat attack’ human wave attacks have pretty much quit, switching to attempts by Russian forces to race to drop off points before Ukraine drones can decimate the vehicles (mostly wheeled, unarmored) and mounted soldiers. Many of the attacks along the front are generally platoon to company sized efforts. Russia still lacks the ability, apparently, to coordinate larger units together to make more successful assaults.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Drone strikes on key personnel in Tehran

- Massive airstrike in Lebanon

- Gaza continues to destabilize

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Reports that new efforts at negotiation for hostage releases being pushed by the US.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Clashes erupted between the Barbah clan and Hamas’s Arrow Unit after terrorists shot the son of the Barbah clan’s mukhtar in the Mawasi area of Khan Yunis. In response, clan members attacked Hamas operatives at Nasser Hospital.

According to reports from Gaza, heavy gunfire broke out inside and around the hospital. Smoke was seen rising from the area. At least 20 people were reported dead or wounded, three ambulances and three vehicles were damaged, and the hospital entrance was completely destroyed.

OBSERVATION - These clashes between Hamas and clans appear to be growing worse and undermine Hamas’ authority in Gaza. BTW - Hamas using another hospital as a military base . . . . . .

***
Israel has dropped more warning leaflets telling Gazans to flee more sectors of the strip.

***
Intelligence is nothing attempts of overt reconnoissance of US backed aid distribution sites. Word is that Hamas is offering rewards on info and attacks on these distribution sites. Further word is that Hamas is planning a much larger, deliberate attack. These private US distribution points are undercutting Hamas’ black market operations where supplies are openly stolen and sold back on the black market in order to continue to fund their operations.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

A Hezbollah commander was killed in an Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon’s Kounine earlier today, the military says. According to the Israeli army, Hassan Mohammad Hamoudi was the commander of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile unit in the Bint Jbeil area.

***
Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck a Hezbollah site in southeastern Lebanon’s Nabatieh Governorate on Friday, targeting a facility used to manage the terrorist group’s fire and defense systems in the Beaufort Ridge area, the Israel Defense Forces said.

According to the IDF, the site was part of a significant underground infrastructure project that was previously destroyed during the war but had recently been the focus of Hezbollah rehabilitation efforts.

“The presence of this site and the attempts to reestablish it constitute a blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon,” the military said in a statement.

***
Talks are developing to take the current ceasefire agreement to another level where Israel withdraws and Hezbollah in the south is dismantled.
Excuse me if we’ve heard this song before, these are key components of the current agreement.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The Israeli army announced that it had launched search operations and arrested several people in southern Syria and taken them to Israel.

***
Discussions about a potential Israel-Syria agreement continued in Arab media Saturday. London-based Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat published an article titled: “Is Syria Ready for Peace with Israel?” Sources close to Damascus’ government told the paper that indirect negotiations are underway with regional and international backing—previously acknowledged by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

“Syria demands an end to Israeli attacks and incursions into its territory and seeks a return to the 1974 Disengagement Agreement. Israel aims to establish a new buffer zone and a security deal, paving the way for future comprehensive peace is likely.”

OBSERVATION - Talks growing between Israel and Syria. Syria seems willing to accept many of Israel’s demands. Could be that it no longer wants any repeat of what Israel just did to Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli security forces thwart Hamas terror network in southern West Bank’s Hebron, arresting over 60, seizing weapons, and uncovering an underground hideout

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel reverting to pinpoint assassinations of key Iranian personnel just like they have in Lebanon an Gaza. See Iran below for more.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

Israel has made a number of drone launched missile attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists and IRGC leaders over the past few days. Most recently,,they eliminated in Tehran: 2 IRGC members and a nuclear scientist.
The report comes from Iranian opposition sources.

OBSERVATIONS - These drone strikes are virtually identical to the ones Israel has been using against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Very precise and minimal damage.

These strikes fall below the threshold of what the current ceasefire agreement covers, apparently. Also the main reason Khamanani is still hiding in his bunker, out of feat that he’d be detected by one of these Israeli drones and sent off to his virgins before his time.

FINALLY, a note on the ongoing discussion of the claim Iran has been weeks away from a nuclear bomb - issued over the course of over a decade. There is a kind of threefold nature to Iranian govt. First is the general govt, lead by an elected president an parliament who’s job is to mostly run the day to day stuff. They are completely subordinate to Khamamei.

Next level is are the military forces under the IRGC - completely separate from the national forces. These forces readily implement the desires of Khamanei and interact with terror operations around the world. Irans nuclear and missile programs are under their control

And finally at the top of the food chain is Khamanei himself. His word is law, overruling anything the civilian side or IRGC say. In the context of a nuclear weapon, he has issued a fatwa stating that none would be created by Iran.

So where do we get the whole nuclear bomb scenario then? IRGC leadership sees the bomb as necessary to destroy Israel, while the primary religious Khamenei views that as allah’s purview. Within that context though, the decree could be reversed at any time, so IRGC leadership is doing everything ready to make a bomb(s) as quickly as possible - short of making the bombs. Hence the push toward enrichment, warhead design, ballistic missile delivery systems, etc. They cannot just start from ground zero. Thus at their pre-12 day war state, they could have produced a bomb within weeks of the go ahead from Khamenei’s go order.

The 12 day war destroyed most if not all of Iran’s most modern centrifuges, needed to take the 60% uranium up to the 90% weapons grade purity levels. Machinery and likely plans, mill work etc to construct the components of a device also largely left in a smoldering pile. Claims the Iran is resuming weapon development largely unhindered by the Israeli / US attacks are bogus propaganda snd misinformation. Iran has a lot to repair / replace in order to create a bomb. To allow them to move to restore the programs key elements rightfully cannot be permitted.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Bezo’s wedding was a grouping of climate change activists - flying in with dozens of private jets and mega luxury boats .

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New no king style protest for July 17th

A sitting U.S. Congressman has demanded an investigation and potential denaturalization of New York Assembly member and Democratic New York City mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, citing alleged pro-terrorist sympathies. In response, one of the most dangerous Islamic figures in America, Imam Yasir Qadhi, the spiritual leader of EPIC Masjid in Texas, erupted with rage. Qadhi defended Mamdani, attacked America, and praised a new generation of pro-Hamas politicians.

Qadhi smeared Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) as a “racist bigoted Islamophobe” and declared “[W]e need tens, nay hundreds, of Mamdani-esque politicians…”

In a separate Facebook post, Qadhi framed Mamdani’s election as a blow to AIPAC and the “Zionist project,” celebrating what he described as the collapse of Israel’s political hold over America.

“Mamdani’s victory… represents a loss for key billionaire AIPAC supporters, and hence for the Zionist project,” Qadhi said. “The spell that Israel had over America seems to have finally lifted, and we can breathe free at last.”

On June 26, 2025, Rep. Ogles submitted a formal letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate whether Zohran Mamdani should be subject to denaturalization proceedings under 8 U.S.C. § 1451(a) for misrepresenting his pro-terrorist sympathies in order to gain citizenship.

https://rairfoundation.com/alert-texas-yasir-qadhi-calls-hundreds-mamdani-style/

OBSERVATION - The rapid rise of Mamdani in NYC politics is a reflection of the sudden power drive across the nation. Moslems have been taking control of cities across the nation by overwhelming the demographics enhanced by the biden importation. This is setting the table for an English like take over. Think back to London when a moslem took over a mayor and consider the nation today. This mix is driven by a historic marxist / islamist partnership of recent decades as both share a common hatred of US style democracy and capitalism. As a CW2 threshold approaches, this duo is beginning to step out of the bushes to drive Anti-Americanism. And they represent elements more prone to political violence to gain or retain power.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Reports that the US used about 20% of its THAAD missile stockpile in the recent 12 day Israel / Iran war.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Sen. Thom Tillis’ political career just met its end, and there’s no denying who dropped the hammer: Donald J. Trump. On Sunday, Tillis announced he will not seek re-election, saying the choice between “another six years navigating the political theatre and partisan gridlock” and spending time with family “is not a hard choice.”

Tillis said he will continue to serve his remaining 18 months in office, aiming to “focus on producing meaningful results without the distraction of raising money or political gamesmanship.”

OBSERVATION - Tillis has a voting record of supporting the democrats something like 40% of the time. Trump promised MAGA retribution in the form of a challenger in his upcoming election. Trump won the state handily and Tillis apparently saw the writing on the wall.

He can still do a lot of damage in the remaining 18 months in office

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

The Canadian government has folded to President Trump and announced it would cancel a digital services tax on American technology companies. Trump had suspended trade talks between the two countries before Canada folded.

Illegal Immigration –

Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests have more than doubled across 38 states since President Donald Trump took office, with the agency averaging 666 administrative detentions per day through June 10, up from fewer than 300 daily arrests in 2024, The New York Times reported.

ICE has arrested more than 20,000 people in Texas and over 11,000 in Florida and Puerto Rico since Jan. 20, according to data obtained by the Deportation Data Project at the University of California, Berkeley.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/ice-arrests-stephen-miller/2025/06/28/id/1216850/

***
“Alligator Alcatraz” is expected to be operational this week.

The facility sits conveniently next to a deportation airstrip, streamlining the removal process. DeSantis praised the construction team for their speed and efficiency, noting the center will be ready to house illegal immigrants by Tuesday.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

What Are Russia’s Summer Offensive Plans?

Russia has recently opened a new front in Sumy, likely tied to its rhetoric about establishing a buffer zone following Ukraine’s surprise 2024 incursion into Kursk. The Institute for the Study of War noted that the Kremlin is also using the pretext of “buffer zones” to justify expanding Russia’s territorial ambitions in Ukraine.

On the battlefield, the primary aim appears to be stretching Ukrainian forces thin across multiple fronts to increase pressure on Donetsk Oblast, which is Moscow’s primary objective. This is reflected by Russia’s decision to deploy its top drone units to the area.

Nonetheless, Ukraine has held steady and has been working to drive back the Russians from Sumy after Moscow suffered heavy losses. Recent reports reveal increasing numbers of Russians voluntarily surrendering to Ukrainians, likely viewing Ukrainian captivity as a better place to be than being sent to the meatgrinder to die by their commanders. Russian soldiers have been openly commenting on Ukrainian aviation, saying their pilots fly “like Jews in Iran,” are without fear, and are far more accurate than before.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-is-ready-to-begin-its-summer-offensive

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-80 range, mostly sunny.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 107 Shahed-type and decoy drones from Bryansk, Kursk, Millerovo, and occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s air defense neutralized 74 of them—64 shot down, 10 suppressed by EW.

Russian losses per 30/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General sTaff

+1070 men
+4 tanks
+7 AFVs
+29 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system
+3 helicopters (Marinovka airbase)

Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Chasiv Yar

North-Slobozhansky (Sumy) -

Russia has massed 50,000 troops near Sumy—three times more than Ukraine has in the area and just 20 km from the city. Despite losing 300–400 troops daily, they keep sending in reserves. Ukrainian soldiers are digging trenches under fire, and elite units are being deployed to hold the line.

Zaporizhzhia Axis -

Chechen forces are reportedly being prepared for a large-scale offensive in Zaporizhzhia. According to ex-Mariupol mayor advisor Andriushchenko, 15 more trucks with personnel are moving toward Enerhodar/Melitopol/Vasylivka—on top of the 21 previously spotted.

Summary —

Reports of Russian build up in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia indicate that Russia is trying to threaten the ends of the battle front in order to weaken the Ukraine center in the Donetsk region. Russian redeployment of forces to these areas may account for the general decrease in combat intensity of recent months, as Russia is still working hard to bring 30-40K new troops to the front. This is also the first mention of Chechen forces in a while, so it appears Russian is digging deep to the bench for forces.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- IDF ramps up attacks in Gaza

- More hostage deal talk

- Movement on an Israeli / Syrian peace agreement.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

US President Donald Trump is working to advance a hostage deal aimed at securing the release of all Israeli hostages and bringing an end to the Israel-Hamas War, sources familiar with the negotiation process told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF is moving forward in Gaza City after the entire city was issued evacuation notices. Heavy air strikes noted overnight in Gaza City as well as Khan Younis.

IDF Spokesman in Arabic:

A clear warning to all in Gaza City, Jabalia, and surrounding neighborhoods, the IDF is operating with overwhelming force and the operations will intensify, moving west toward the city center to eliminate terrorist infrastructure.

The Salah al-Din axis is now closed due to IDF presence.

For your safety, evacuate immediately west, then south toward the Mawasi area via Rashid Road.
Hamxs is endangering you and leading you to disaster.
Do not return, your lives are at risk.

***
Israel said Hakham Muhammad Issa Al-Issa, one of the founders of Hamas and head of its combat support headquarters, was killed Friday in an airstrike.

***
Hamas is rewarding people who kill humanitarian aid workers with bounties, Fox News reported on Saturday.

The US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Aid Foundation (GHF) told Fox News Digital, “We are aware of credible reports that Hamas is openly targeting the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation and those who work with us.”

GHF continued, “According to these reports, Hamas has placed bounties on both our American security personnel and Palestinian aid workers — offering cash rewards to anyone who injures or kills them.”

https://worldisraelnews.com/hamas-offers-bounties-for-killing-humanitarian-aid-workers/

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar: Israel is interested in establishing official diplomatic ties with Syria and Lebanon. Israel will not negotiate the Golan Heights in any peace agreement.

***
Lebanon’s LBCI channel reported on Sunday, citing sources familiar with developments in Syria, about Syria’s conditions for a peace agreement with Israel.

According to the report, the conditions include Israeli recognition of the regime of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, withdrawal from territories captured by Israel since last December and from the buffer zone in the Golan, a halt to Israeli airstrikes in Syria, and security arrangements in southern Syria — particularly along the border and the tri-border area with Jordan.
Most importantly, according to the report, Syria is demanding US guarantees for the agreements and American support for the Syrian regime.

In return, Syria would recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/410870

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthis have been very quiet lately.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel focusing with more intensity on accomplishing their goals in Gaza as soon as possible. The Iranian war delayed some of the objectives in Gaza, which now it appears that Israel is trying to make up time. Though there is rumbling that Trump has given Israel two weeks to clean things up in Gaza, Israel is unlikely to hold to that until their full objectives are complete - basically the destruction of Hamas. Anything short would give them time to eventually reconstitute and maintain control of Gaza.

Iran seem stable so far, except for apparent drone strikes and potential Mossad hits.

Iran –
Threat Level - WATCH Jun 30, 2025

Threat Level reduced to WATCH from WARNING due to the ceasefire holding and no evidence of any impending action by either side, apart from Israeli targeted drone strikes.

***
One week after the attack, Iran is rapidly accelerating engineering work to reopen access to the Fordow facility, new Maxar satellite images reveal.

Iran has likely begun to assess damage and conduct repair operations at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 28 and 29 shows Iranian heavy equipment near two clusters of three impact points on ventilation shafts at Fordow that were caused by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. A US weapons expert assessed that Iran may be filling the craters and conducting engineering damage assessments and radiological sampling.ISW

OBSERVATION - Much speculation continues about the state of Iran’s ability to restore uranium enrichment operations. Iran shouldn’t get their hopes up. With those bombs exploding in the enrichment gallery with the force of which demonstrated by the blowing out of ventilation shafts, those centrifuges are most likely toast. Structural integrity of the gallery is also questionable.

***
Iran’s Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi issued a fatwa labeling anyone who threatens Islamic leadership, including the Supreme Leader, as a “muharib” a status that under Islamic law that carries the death penalty.
This ruling is a direct response to U.S. threats and targets President Trump.

***
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Massive disinformation campaign being supported by MSM outlets and some other sources to down play the damage done to the Iranian nuclear program. MSM elements have doubled down on the claims that Iran will quickly resume enrichment and bomb development. This is hard to reconcile against the documented destruction of Iranian facilities.

Now, with Israel / US pausing its attacks, Iran is trying to beat its chest again in resistance towards any appearance of losing the war.

Khamenei continues to reside in his bunker. Israel will be more than willing to take him out should he try to become more public. Other reasons for his continued hiding are rumors of a growing movement to oust him and his cronies by forces aligning themselves to the Shah’s son. How much this movement gains traction is yet to be seen.

Misc of Note –

A man armed with a rifle started a wildfire Sunday and then began shooting at first responders in a northern Idaho mountain community, killing two firefighters and wounding a third during a barrage of gunfire over several hours, authorities said.

A shelter-in-place order was lifted Sunday night after a tactical response team used cell phone data to “hone in” on a wooded area where they found the suspect’s body with a firearm nearby as flames rapidly approached, Kootenai County Sheriff Bob Norris said.

Officials did not release his name, nor did they say what kind of gun was found.

OBSERVATION - Noting this action. Without more info on the shooter, hard to vector in on his motives, be they political or just a nut job.

The media has been silent on potential political motives. If this was some ultra rightist, which many have rooted in N Idaho, they would be pushing it against Trump in a heart beat. So we’ll have to sit tight a day or so before more details are worked out.

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