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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Back for the rest of the week except for next Friday and Saturday (possibly Sunday)


CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025

SUPER UW a notorious student group at the University of Washington that was previously suspended for causing over $1 million in damages in an anti-Semitic occupation of a campus building, has escalated its agenda to not only call for violence, but to also teach it.

On June 5, 2025, the group held a “Teach-in” in which they praised terrorist organizations, downplayed atrocities, and advocated for armed violence as a “scientific necessity.”

The hosts also conducted a scripted reading aimed at Israelis: “As for you, the children of pigs, you will have only death, and your demise is just around the corner.” Reportedly, the audience applauded in agreement.

https://mrctv.org/blog/james-mortensen/pro-hamas-group-promotes-violence-scientific-necessity-university-washington

***
Portland (June 21) — Federal agents rushed in to make arrests of Antifa rioters who continue their daily attempted siege of the ICE building. The city has allowed Antifa to build an encampment nearby to recruit rioters.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1936791907385893223?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Antifa and the violent left are digging in on exploiting ICE operations in urban areas while growing supporters from pro-islamic elements festering on US colleges and universities.
ICE protests have dwindled to ANTIFA home base cities. Leftist friendly Washington becoming ground zero for the jihadists.

Latest on the radar are efforts by 50501 to stimulate “No War” protests. These are along the same lines of the recent “no kings” rallies.

Near term, there are no significant triggering events foreseen. ‘No Kings’ failed to provide Antifa with momentum to continue their violence on a national level. Response to bombing Iran doesn’t appear to have triggered much either.


Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

DHS Issues National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
There are currently no specific credible threats against the homeland

WASHINGTON – Today, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem issued a National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) Bulletin regarding a heightened threat environment across the United States due to the direct involvement of the United States in the ongoing conflict between the nations of Israel and Iran. There are currently no specific credible threats against the homeland.

“It is our duty to keep the nation safe and informed, especially during times of conflict,” said Secretary Kristi Noem. “The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict brings the possibility of increased threat to the homeland in the form of possible cyberattacks, acts of violence, and antisemitic hate crimes.”

This NTAS Bulletin will expire on September 22, 2025. The public should report any suspicious activity or threats of violence to local law enforcement, FBI Field Offices, or a local Fusion Center.

RELATED
Iran also has a long-standing commitment to target U.S. government officials it views as responsible for the death of an Iranian military commander killed in January 2020.

OBSERVATION -
Iran has long threatened asymmetrical attacks against the US and US interests in the event of the US striking it. Iran has made similar threats toward Israel and so far they have not panned out. In this case, biden let in hundreds if not thousands of middle easterners with probable terror affiliations into the country, where they can blend into the existing mob of middle eastern ‘immigrants’. The US is a target rich environment with a lot of soft targets and spread thin intel an law enforcement capabilities. The FBI has said they are monitoring activities, but this is not a guarantee that they will be able to preempt an event.
Keep your heads on a swivel and maintain heightened situational awareness.

***
A gunman wearing a tactical vest and carrying two guns targeted a suburban Detroit church Sunday morning, firing shots into the building’s exterior during a special vacation Bible School service before he was run over by one person and then fatally shot by church security.

Police have not yet publicly identified the suspect. Kelly said he was not aware of the shooter’s identity but said the attacker does not appear to be a member.

OBSERVATION - Confusing info on this attacker. Failure to release info in the past has indicated that the attacker is of a ‘protected class’ - i.e. either islamist or LGBT, liberal etc. Rumors suggest a moslem from nearby enclaves. Other reports of a disgruntled attendee.

Noting this event here until attacker’s ID has been released and verified.


Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Oil prices are expected to spike today upon threats of closure attempts by Iran of the Straits of Hormuz. Global markets also down due to the same threat.


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Two carrier strike groups, the USS Nimitz and USS Vinson, are now in the Middle East

***
US 5th Fleet HQ is based in Al-Juffair, Bahrain.
Ships were no longer seen in port at Al-Juffair earlier this week.

***

The U.S. has positioned five ballistic missile defense-capable guided-missile destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea as Iranian forces launch salvos of ballistic missiles against Israel, a defense official confirmed to USNI News.

Two guided-missile destroyers, based in Rota, Spain — USS Paul Ignatius (DDG-117) and USS Oscar Austin (DDG-79) — entered the Mediterranean, joining three other BMD-capable destroyers in the region, the defense official said. Ship spotters observed Paul Ignatius leaving Rota on Tuesday.

USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51), USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116) and USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) were operating in the Eastern Mediterranean as Monday, according to the USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker. In addition, the U.S. has two guided-missile destroyers operating in the Red Sea — USS Forrest Sherman (DDG-98) and USS Truxtun (DDG-103).
All five destroyers in the Mediterranean can detect and intercept ballistic missiles with Standard Missile 3s. Paul Ignatius, Oscar Austin and Arleigh Burke are part of the Navy’s forward-deployed naval forces based in Rota. The five destroyers in Rota are part of the European Phased Adaptive Approach for ballistic missile defense to defend Europe against Iranian missiles.

https://news.usni.org/2025/06/20/5-u-s-ballistic-missile-defense-destroyers-now-in-the-mediterranean-sea

***
Not fully confirmed by my view but the United States is reportedly moving B-2 bombers to the Pacific island of Guam, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Saturday. If true, this may be the destination of the the westward moving B2s used for the deception ploy.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats were foaming at the mouth over the B2 strikes. They seemed to be silenced due to clips of 0bama and his record of bombing as well as the billions shipped in cargo planes to Iran.

***
A rumble has been ongoing tha past week between anti-semitic “woke” so called conservatives and followers of Trump’ MAGA program. The woke elements appear to be trying to co-opt the MAGA agenda from Trump over his support towards Israel, claiming it is not ‘America First’.


INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

The State Department has issued a worldwide security alert for U.S. citizens and interests abroad.

The U.S. State Department has issued security warnings for Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Iraq.

Due to regional events, U.S. government personnel in Türkiye have been cautioned to maintain a low profile and instructed to avoid personal travel to the U.S. Consulate Adana consular district, which comprises Türkiye’s 22 southeastern most provinces. Negative sentiment toward U.S. foreign policy may prompt actions against U.S. or Western interests in Türkiye. In the past, such activities have included demonstrations, calls for boycotts of U.S. businesses, anti-U.S. rhetoric, and graffiti. Large gatherings may result in enhanced police presence, road closures, and traffic disruptions. Any gathering, even those intended to be peaceful, could escalate and turn violent on short notice.


TRUMP Watch –

In a White House address on the evening of June 21, President Donald Trump touted the success of a series of U.S. strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, and warned of even greater attacks to come should Iran choose to retaliate.

“Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor [of terrorism]. Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success,” Trump announced.

As he delivered his White House address, Trump warned Iran not to continue fighting.

“Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier,” the president said.

Trump said there are many targets left in Iran, but the ones that U.S. forces struck on Saturday were the most difficult.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/after-us-strikes-trump-threatens-far-greater-attacks-if-iran-doesnt-make-peace-5876476?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - Iran misjudged Trump’s resolve on this. Hope they don’t this time.

Remember, Iran attacked us in 1979 and has continued thru today via its puppet proxy groups.


Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to ongoing Israeli / Iranian conflict

The ongoing Iran conflict is causing a heightened threat environment in the United States. Low-level cyber attacks against U.S. networks by pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely, and cyber actors affiliated with the Iranian government may conduct attacks against U.S. networks.


Illegal Immigration –

Nearly HALF the Iranians caught at the southern border were released into the United States by The Biden Administration. -Fox News


Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Iran’s foreign minister headed to Moscow late Sunday night to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the wake of U.S. strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

The Daily Telegraph reports Abbas Araghchi confirmed Iran “reserves all options to defend its security, its interests, its people…All options are on the table” while applauding Russia as “a friend of Iran.”

His visit to Russia will raise significant concerns over what kind of support Moscow is willing to offer Tehran at this moment, which could include sending defence materials, getting involved directly militarily or throwing diplomatic weight behind Iran, the Telegraph report stated.

But to what extent will the Russians be willing to intervene?

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/06/22/irans-foreign-minister-heading-for-moscow-talks-with-putin/

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Following the historic attack on Iranian nuclear sites former Russian President wrote a long thread on X condemning the US military strike.

Medvedev says there are “a number of foreign countries” ready to supply the Iranian regime with nuclear weapons.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/06/russias-medvedev-blasts-trump-after-iranian-military-strikes/

OBSERVATION - Who will these nations be?


Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 50-70 range, widely scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 352 Shahed-type drones(approximately 160 of them with explosive warhead), 11 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 5 Iskander-K cruise missiles, - Ukrainian Air Forces
Attacks centered mostly on Kyiv and surrounding regions. At least seven people have reportedly been killed and several injured in the overnight attack in the Kyiv region, the interior minister has said.

Russian losses per 23/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1010 men
+1 tank
+5 AFVs
+58 artillery
+2 MLRS

Summary —

Russia maintains an overall high level of drone / missile attacks on Kyiv and Ukraine in general.

On the ground, action doesn’t appear to resemble an organized offensive as announced by Russia. Observers note that Russia does appear to be pulsing its attacks to bring a larger force locally to the front, then pausing to regroup. Very little progress has been made by Russia and in some cases, Ukraine has locally counterattacked and regained territory. The battle sees poorly trained Russian infantry facing the fury of Ukrainian drones.


ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ongoing airstrikes across Iran

- Ongoing airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza

- Bodies of at least three murdered hostages recovered over the weekend.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Netanyahu, in an address to the nation on the status of the overall fighting noted that he hasn’t taken his eyes off the efforts in Gaza. Smooth operations against Iran have freed up aircraft to intensify bombing of Gaza targets.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syria hasn’t challenged Israel’s operations that intercept Iranian drones and missiles over its territory.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

See Iraq on rumblings of potential attacks on US elements.

Houthis declare the Red Sea to be closed to shipping.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

U.S. Embassy in Qatar urges all American citizens to shelter in place until further notice, according to Reuters

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

See Iran below. Hezbollah staying to the sidelines and Hamas being chewed up.


Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

Quick summary of the Operation Midnight Hammer B2 attacks on Iran’s three main nuclear sites — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

US sent a widely reported flight of about 6 B2s westward from the US, even with reports of a refueling pattern that would be expected from fully loaded bombers. Meanwhile, much earlier and with great secrecy, a group of 7 B2s (each with 2 MOPs) linked up with tankers and a fighter escort and flew east.

About the time the westbound bombers reached refueling sites near Hawaii, the strike force was virtually over Iran and executing its attack with great precision.
Six bombers struck Fordow. It appears from post strike satellite photos that there are six very clear and large/deep craters along the ridge line over the centrifuge gallery. The pattern suggests that a double strike was used - the first to do initial penetration, and the second to finish the job. It also appears that the strike locations took advantage of ventilation shafts the further weakened the bedrock.

Analysis by The Institute for Science and International Security: Hi-res satellite images of Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant reveal six penetration holes from U.S. GBU-57 bombs near ventilation shafts, enabling an easier pathway for the MOPS to the deeply buried halls.

Debris visible on mountain slopes also suggests severe damage or destruction of enrichment halls. Tunnel entrances had been filled by Iran beforehand, anticipating an attack.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1936974071113121896?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

The 7th B2 dropped its ordinance on Natanz

A cruise missile submarine supported the attack by firing about 14 tomahawk missiles at Natanz, and Isfahan.

In total, 75 precision munitions were dropped during the operation and 125 US military aircraft participated in it.

US alerted the Gulf countries before the attack on Iran, amid fears of retaliation against American targets in their territories

- - - - Straits of Hormuz - - - -

The Iranian parliament has unanimously reached the decision to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

The British Maritime Transport Authority reported serious disruptions to the GPS system in the Strait of Hormuz.

The countries that heavily rely on oil passing through this strait include:

1. China – largest single importer of oil through the Strait
2.India
3.Japan
4.South Korea
5.Singapore

Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would significantly harm China, one of Iran’s closest allies — the last thing Tehran wants right now.

https://x.com/immeme0/status/1936814227873792289?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

— - - Iranian Attacks on Israel - - -

Iran’s vaunted missile capabilities have been severely degraded. Missile attacks now generally consist of salvos of less than 10, quite often only a few missiles with longer time in between. This makes it easy for Israeli defenses to intercept threatening missiles.

- - - - Israeli Strikes - - - -

IAF continues free range over Iran. They appear to have come up with the formula to nail Iranian missile firing locations. In many instances just before launch, taking out launcher and reload missiles. Fixed missile sites continue to be hammered as well.

Over the weekend, IAF did target some Iranian naval vessels. This action may increase if a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz is attempted.

- - - - Other - - - -

Iran’s Foreign Minister:
There is no point in asking Iran to return to the negotiating table. The door to diplomacy is no longer open.

- - - - Estimated future actions - - - -

Iran’s leadership, both civil and military, are in disarray. The entrance of the US into the fight - so far in a limited manner - has further put Iran into a corner. Iran is a wounded animal and right now the jihadists are still running the show and may soon move towards the apocalyptic.

1 Missile strikes against US bases in the region
2 Attempt to close off the Straits of Hormuz
3 Attempt to seize / attacking shipping in the Persian gulf
4 Activate terror cells in the US (and Europe)
5 Cyber attacks

The US strike ripped open the fact that Iran is very much exposed and should it attempt action against US interests, they better pay attention to Trump’s warning. They didn’t last time.

This includes an attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz. Things have changed significantly since Iran last attempted this. First, note that the US is far more independent than it was in the past. Second, those dependent on oil passage include at the top of the list China - who has been speaking loudly in Iran’s ear and who the mullah’s have been attempting to curry favor from. Second, the big missile threat of Iran has been severely hammered. The threat does remain of shorter ranged missiles and anti-ship systems that Iran has embedded all over the area, much like their medium to long range missiles

Israel will continue to reduce Iranian military assets associated with ballistic missile firing as well as production, associated sites for manufacturing nuclear bomb components and infrastructure. Iran’s missile threat has been reduced to something like what happened to Hezbollah - attempts for a lucky strike from a handful of missiles. As Iran loses more launcher and launch facilities, the missile threat will decrease.

Of final note, there was talk of “regime change’ going around the political circles. The elements of the so called ‘woke’ right claiming we are going down the same road as Iraq and Afghanistan. They are making a false equivalency. Iraq and Afghanistan were boots on the ground from the start operations. Iran OTOH has been just a single, major tactical strike. Any regime change inferred to by Trump contextually refers to the Iranians doing the work, not US ground forces imposing a change. The son of the Shah is trying to organize a resistance element to overthrow the mullahs, the world would be better with the islamists tossed to the curb.


Iraq -

Rumint. American military and intelligence officials have detected signs that Iran-backed militias are preparing to attack U.S. bases in Iraq, and possibly Syria, in retaliation for the U.S. strikes in Iran. But so far the groups have held off, and Iraqi officials are working hard to dissuade militia action, a U.S. official said on Sunday. -NYT

OBSERVATION - If they get froggy, Trump has made it clear that an attack by an Iranian proxy would be considered an attack by Iran itself. Iraq is wisely trying to get them to calm down.



642 posted on 06/23/2025 7:51:49 AM PDT by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 635 | View Replies ]


To: Godzilla
Russia launched 352 Shahed-type drones(approximately 160 of them with explosive warhead)

Did I read that right? Less than half the launches had warheads? The rest are less dangerous than a flying VW bug?

Why?

643 posted on 06/23/2025 8:30:58 AM PDT by null and void (Democrats: fake news, fake presidents, fake beliefs, fake policies, fake protesters & fake voters!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 642 | View Replies ]

To: Godzilla

Thanks for the updates.

Anyone who hasn’t been expecting terror events or mass casualty events is living in a dream world.


644 posted on 06/23/2025 8:37:48 AM PDT by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 642 | View Replies ]

To: Godzilla
Trump has made it clear that an attack by an Iranian proxy would be considered an attack by Iran itself. Iraq is wisely trying to get them to calm down.

Our enemies now know for sure that President Trump isn't like corrupt Biden and his goons or like Obama and his endless 'lines in the sand' - - that Trump means what he says...

645 posted on 06/23/2025 9:14:19 AM PDT by GOPJ (NOTHING about the Iran mission was leaked to the MSM because NO democrats were told...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 642 | View Replies ]

To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Already noted. Iran has fired on bases in Qatar and Iraq.

US and European jets reportedly in the air over the gulf.

Iran has poked the hornets nest.


646 posted on 06/23/2025 9:58:21 AM PDT by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 642 | View Replies ]

To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Crazy 24 hours and it hasn’t stopped.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New no king style protest for July 17th

The ‘no kings’ mob is now trying to organize another protest for July 17th. Details as they develop.


Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
- July 4, a very symbolic day for the US could trigger terror attacks on celebrants by Iranian supporting elements.

DHS Issues National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
There are currently no specific credible threats against the homeland

NOTE - Even though there is a shaky ceasefire in effect, Iran continues to be unfettered to pursue asymmetric attacks via various types of terror acts here and across the world. Potential for attacks remains very high.


Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Oil prices dropped 10% or so following the anemic revenge attack on US forces in Qatar. Reinforce now by the ceasefire.


POLITICAL FRONT –

President Trump launched Midnight Hammer over the weekend. B-2 Bombers from Missouri struck the Iranian nuclear facilities of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in a strike that was executed with precision and total secrecy. Ohio-class submarines launched a barrage of Tomahawk missiles to ensure no air defense systems could endanger the bombing run. The Republican leadership was informed about the strikes—the Democrats were not.

Or at least that was the initial story. You know this would be a point of contention with the media. I couldn’t care less, but White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt cleared the air, saying the White House did try to contact Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), leader of the House Democrats, but he didn’t pick up the phone:

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2025/06/23/the-trump-white-house-tried-to-call-this-top-democrat-about-the-iran-strikes-heres-what-happened-n2659277#google_vignette

BTW - Schumer managed to pick up the phone.


Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to ongoing Israeli / Iranian conflict


Illegal Immigration –

The US Supreme Court has cleared the way for President Donald Trump’s administration to resume deportations of migrants to countries other than their homeland.

By 6-3, the justices reversed a lower court order requiring the government to give migrants a “meaningful opportunity” to tell officials what risks they might face being deported to a third country.


China -

Chinese workers across industries are facing salary cuts and layoffs as mounting economic woes engulf China’s public and private sectors, sources tell Radio Free Asia.

That’s forcing families to slash spending. It is also triggering deflationary concerns as businesses enter into desperate price wars.
Economist Wu Qinxue warned that the current situation highlights continued decline in local governments’ fiscal levels and is not just a temporary belt-tightening.

“The (local) government has no money to manage people, and no one is willing to spend money,” he said. “From salary cuts within the system to the collapse of consumption among ordinary people, the entire society is quietly forming a top-down (consumer belt-) ‘tightening chain.’”

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/06/widespread-pay-cuts-in-china-drive-down-consumer-spending-fuel-deflationary-fears/#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - China’s economy continues to implode in the post wuhan world. Makes Xi’s plans for regional dominance and retaking of Taiwan that much more difficult and costly.


Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 50-70 range, widely scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 97 Shahed-type drones overnight, - Ukrainian Air Forces. Numerous ballistic missile strikes also noted.

Summary —

Current info on the war buried under the rush of items on the Israeli / Iran war. However, evidence is that apart from an increase in ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv and other main cities, fighting otherwise has remained relatively stable as it has for months. No threats of a Russian breakthrough anywhere along the lines.


ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ceasefire with Iran holding by thinest margin

- Iran fired missile in violation, Israel with a restrained retaliatory strike.

- Trump tells Israel to hold fire.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The big question is will Iran hold to the ceasefire.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF hit numerous targets throughout Gaza

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

After announcing they would shut down shipping thru the Red Sea, Houthis have been quiet and no attacks on shipping have occurred

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Attention shifts back to Gaza and the elimination of Hamas. See Iran below on the latest in that fight.


Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

Things exploded (literally) in a fast and furious manner yesterday.

Early on Qatari Foreign Ministry announced closure of its airspace. Other gulf nations followed suit as indicators pointed to an imminent rocket attack from Iran towards US bases in the region.

Iran then launched 14 (one for each of the MOPs dropped by the US - according to Iran) towards the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Later, it was announced that this airbase was the only one in the region that was attacked. 13 of the 14 were taken down by Patriot systems, the 14th missed the base entirely and no word on where it impacted.

As time went on, it became apparent that this attack was one ‘allowed’ so that Iran could ‘save face’ in the light of the US airstrikes and Israel’s dominating the airspace. Iranian sources to the New York Times: Tehran coordinated the attack with the US and Qatar to minimize the damage. Iran needed the ability to respond “symbolically” but allow the US to get out of it. The sources noted that this is a similar pattern of action to Iran’s revenge response for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 in launches against the Ain al-Assad base in Iraq.

Trump later said he was ok with this so that Iran could “get it out of its system”. Accordingly, Trump said there would be no US retaliation - kinda a no blood, no foul.

Ceasefire -

Following the Qatar attack, Trump declared that Iran was willing to go into a ceasefire, Israel was caused to comply. In the waining hour before the start of the ceasefire, Iran launched about 14 missiles towards Israel. In some of the final missile attacks a 7 story apt bldg in Beer Sheba was struck. Mass casualties and 5 deaths reported.

A couple hours into the ceasefire, two ballistic missiles were launched from Iran at Israel. Both were intercepted, and violated the agreement.

After initially telling Israel not to respond, according to the
Times of Israel - “After Trump and Netanyahu speak, Israeli jets carry out a strike on Iranian radar in response to ballistic missile attack”

— - - Iranian Attacks on Israel - - -

Initial numbers count on the Iranian response towards Israel over the past 12 days

A total of about 500 missiles were launched at Israel.

The interception rate is about 83%

The direct hit rate is about 6%

An additional 11% fell in open areas.

Hundreds of launchers and hundreds of missiles were destroyed on Iranian soil

Dozens of ballistic missiles exploded during launch or fell on the way.

It should be noted that according to Iranian planning, the goal was to launch nearly 1000 missiles within hours of the start of a war - a plan that was thwarted by the IDF. In fact, they barely reached this number within 12 days.

The number of casualties on the home front was 97% lower than initial estimates, thanks to the practical dismantling of the ballistic missile system, which will take years to rebuild.

- - - - Israeli Strikes - - - -

IAF continued to hammer Iran up to the ceasefire. Israel’s destruction of Iranian air defenses will continue to permit it virtually unfettered access for a considerable time in the future, should they need to attack again.

Israel effectively beheaded the Iranian military leadership as well as the principle nuclear scientists leading the program for the development of the bomb.

- - - - Overall Observations - - - -

Although Iran is beating its chest claiming complete victory over Israel, the other nations in the regions know otherwise. Iran got its butt handed to them. Iran could not muster any of the retaliatory threats it has made over the years. While perhaps not totally eliminating every piece of equipment associated with a nuclear development program, it is going to take Iran years and billions and billions of dollars to recover should it desire to continue to work towards a bomb. On top of that, multiple billions of dollars to rebuild its military’s ballistic missile corps and production, along with develop a air defense network to protect its nuclear sites.

Economically, a lot of infrastructure was hit - petroleum industry mainly - to force Iran to divert billions to fix their oil industry. Essentially the only means of income revenue that it will rely upon if it wants to pursue its nuclear program again.

Iran’s proxy war fighting network is also at a disadvantage. Cut off from Iranian money and material, they will be unable to do very much in the near and intermediate term. Hamas is dying, Hezbollah nearly completely cut off and withering as it struggles to develop new support measures. Houthi’s time is limited as their ability to construct new missiles was heavily dependent on Iran as well as now lacking money to fix its economic base. Finally, Iranian backed militias in Iraq are having to dial it back, again, no money and munitions and Iraqi elements beginning to leverage their new power against them.

With all that said, Iran in the near term is still an unconventional threat to the US, via cyber and terrorist strikes. Just like they threw the missile in violation of the ceasefire, they could launch these attacks with a one off level of protection in a way - “we didn’t do that” kind of claim, one they’ve worked out for decades via proxy elements. Of the two, the most dangerous towards Iran would be activation of terror cells. Trumps actions so far indicate that he wouldn’t tolerate such an action and would hit Iran. More likely cyber issues as well as much smaller scale terror - ‘lone wolf’ attacks motivated by cells and radicalization as well as smaller, but numerous infrastructure failures. Even potential use of forest fires and related late this summer.

Will this ceasefire hold? Depends on if the powers that be making the decisions in Iran remain the ones making the decisions. Should they violate the ceasefire in a more signifiant or consistent way, Israel will strike back , with or without Trump’s blessing.


Iraq -

Iraqi channels are now reporting that another air-defense radar has been struck at Imam Ali Air Base in the Dhi Qar Governorate of Southern Iraq, making this the fourth U.S/Iraqi military base to have targeted tonight by drones and the second air-defense radar to have been destroyed.

OBSERVATION - No specific details on who launched the attacks, but believed to be Iranian backed militias in Iraq.



648 posted on 06/24/2025 6:31:35 AM PDT by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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