Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Back and posting today. Had to return home from a camping trip because a strong thunderstorm damaged my roof, causing leakage into the house. Groan, insurance time.

I tracked some of the craziness, but I’m gonna be forced to largely summarize a lot of what has been happening and hopefully be back on plane by tomorrow.

At the front end - be alert around “No King” rallies.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
Raised due to potential use of the “No King” events by Antifa to launch riots in major cities and the rapid increase in riots in these major cities.

National Day of Action (NO KINGS) scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump 79th birthday )
Over 1000 locations reportedly preparing to host protests.

PLEASE NOTE - Things have been developing fast.

***
PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Cities large and small were preparing for major demonstrations Saturday across the U.S. against President Donald Trump, as officials urge calm, National Guard troops mobilize and Trump attends a military parade in Washington to mark the Army’s 250th anniversary.

A flagship “No Kings” march and rally are planned in Philadelphia, but no events are scheduled to take place in Washington, D.C., where the military parade will take place on Trump’s birthday

The demonstrations are gaining additional fuel from protests flaring up around the country over federal immigration enforcement raids and Trump ordering National Guard troops and Marines to Los Angeles where protesters blocked a freeway and set cars on fire.

https://www.breitbart.com/news/cities-brace-for-large-crowds-at-anti-trump-no-kings-demonstrations-across-the-us/

OBSERVATION - The AP neglectfully over looks that this is the 250th anniversary of the establishment of the US Army and flag day as well. Second, CANG and Marines have only been deployed to protect federal facilities and buildings and have not been involved in actions like clearing CA freeways.

Organizers of these rallies are calling for only ‘peaceful’ actions, but be prepared for the related below.

RELATED
Antifa have announced plans to try to embed themselves into the larger “No Kings” protests organized by Democrats happening nationwide on June 14.

As in 2020, Antifa utilize this tactic so that others can act as human shields for them, and when or if police are forced to make arrests, it will provide good propaganda PR for the far-left to show boomers and families getting affected by pepper spray or CS gas.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1933714842688352766?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Also on Friday, there was action at the U.S. Capitol. People were protesting at the Supreme Court. But then, as they were leaving, they allegedly pushed past the barriers the police were setting up to keep protesters away.

“A few people pushed the bike rack down and illegally crossed the police line while running towards the Rotunda Steps,” the Capitol Police said. “Our officers immediately blocked the group and began making arrests.”
CNN reported they were a veterans group against “fascism.” It looks like someone got hurt when those barriers went over.

Sixty of the protesters were arrested, then marched to a bus and taken away.

https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2025/06/14/watch-people-breach-barriers-rush-the-us-capitol-n2190471#google_vignette

***
Overnight Antifa gathered to attack the Portland ICE building again after trying to burn it down two nights in a row. Efforts were once again unsuccessful

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS

Overwhelming sorting thru the news to get to this category. The past few days, street riots have fallen back to key Antifa core cities, like Portland. The threat of imbedded Antifa elements into today’s ‘no king’ protests makes the possibility of some big riots in multiple cities very possible. Today will likely show just what transjectory Antifa et al will have going into a potential Summer of Love 2.0.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

Maintaining the WATCH classification. The collapse of Iranian defenses and the remarkable effectiveness of Israeli strikes have limited Iran’s response options. So far the US has maintained a degree of separation from the attacks. Any clearly organized terror strike(s) by Iranian terror cells in country could trigger massive retaliation by US forces the region. This could cause terror to be held off for now.

WARNING - I don’t have a channel into the minds of the probable Iranian cells here in the US. But I think that the condition that Iran is currently in, they don’t want a pissed off US entering the fray. But the mind of the jihadi doesn’t work logically, so keep your heads on a swivel and especially so at venues where there are large crowds or soft targets.
This would include the numerous “No King” protests - big target, big press coverage.

Lone wolf attacks triggered by the Israel / Iran conflict are more likely now.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Global oil prices jumped after Israel said it had struck Iran in a dramatic escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
The price of the benchmark Brent crude rose more than 10%, reaching its highest level since January, before losing some gains.
Traders were concerned that a conflict between Iran and Israel could disrupt supplies coming from the energy-rich region.

OBSERVATION - Attempted closure of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran is still a possibility. However, Iran faces a substantially more severe threat if they do try to close them versus if they leave them be. The progress of the war this next week will likely drive the markets to continue to raise prices, or relax.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

According to the Associated Press, the Pentagon is shifting its resources, including naval ships, to the Middle East in response to Israel’s strikes today against Iran and a possible retaliatory attack against Israel by Tehran. The USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116), an Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyer specializing in Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), has been ordered to head toward the Eastern Mediterranean, while another unnamed destroyer has been instructed to head in the direction of the Middle East to be ready if orders are given by the White House.

Some reports that the Nimitz CSG has been given warning orders to move to CENTCOM region to support any efforts against Iran.

TRUMP Watch –

During a brief phone call with the network Friday morning, Trump said the U.S. supported Israel and called the strikes on Iran last night “a very successful attack.”

“We, of course, support Israel, obviously, and supported it like nobody has ever supported it,” Trump said.

“Iran should have listened to me when I said — you know I gave them, I don’t know if you know, but I gave them a 60-day warning, and today is day 61.”

Earlier on Truth Social, Trump urged Iran to reach a deal with Washington on its nuclear program, warning that Israel’s attacks “will only get worse.”

Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.

Note later that apparently Iran has launched cyberattacks against Gulf nations a couple days ago. Iran or its proxies will have to consider the consequences of launching a major cyber attack because of the overwhelming vulnerably of the nation to US military operations on top of on going Israeli strikes.

Japan –

Japan reached out to China, expressing concern the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy J-15 fighters that came within 50 meters of a Japanese surveillance aircraft, Japan Defense Minister Gen Nakatani said Friday.

The close encounter, which saw a fighter from aircraft carrier CNS Shandong (17) carry out an unusual maneuver against a JMSDF P-3C Orion Maritime Patrol Aircraft over the Philippine Sea last weekend, could lead to an accidental collision, Nakatani said in a Friday press conference.

“Self-Defense Force aircraft will not approach within 45 meters of other aircraft over the high seas. We cannot accept the Chinese side’s remarks that suggest that Japan is to blame for this incident, and we have made a proper representation of Japan’s position to the Chinese side,” Nakatani said.

Japan’s Ministry of Defense put out a release this week saying the J-15 fighter shadowed a JMSDF aircraft for 40 minutes on Saturday, coming within 45 meters of the P-3C Orion. On Sunday, another J-15 fighter shadowed a P-3C for 80 minutes, during which the Chinese fighter crossed approximately 900 meters ahead of the Japanese aircraft’s course, USNI News previously reported.

https://news.usni.org/2025/06/13/japan-calls-out-china-over-unusual-maneuvers-warns-it-could-lead-to-accidental-collision

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Other than urging negotiated peace settlement between Iran and Israel, Russia appears to be unable to mount any significant relief operation to Iran. Any effort, either military or shipping military equipment to Iran is unlikely due to Ukrainian commitments. Iran is on its own.

Logistics –

Iran has lost significant capability to produce ballistic missiles and Shahed drones for export to Russia. Russia has ramped up its own production, so impacts from the losses of Iranian sources should be mitigates somewhat. The Shaheds are cheap and easy to build.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 50-70, widely scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

On the night of June 14, Russia launched 58 Shahed and other UAVs from five directions. 43 of them were neutralized.

Russia launched at least 5 strikes on Zaporizhzhia using 14 Shahed drones.

Ukrainian drones also carried out an attack on the “Nevinnomysskiy Azot” chemical plant in Russia’s Stavropol Krai.

Russian losses per 14/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1130 men
+3 tanks
+7 AFVs
+52 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Sumy -

In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 35 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
NOTE - These attacks are designed to exert pressure on Sumy.

Summary —

Shahed and ballistic missile action reduced. Doubt the fewer Shaheds are due to Iranian supply problems - yet. Too soon.

Moderate to heavy fighting along the front with no significant terrain changes.

Europe / NATO General –

HMS Prince of Wales and an ad hoc CSG are currently cruising in the western Indian Ocean region

HMS Dauntless, HMS Richmond, Norwegian frigate HNoMS Roald Admundsen, Canadian frigate HMCS Ville de Québec and Spanish frigate ESPS Méndez Núñez all accompanied HMS Prince of Wales – with her deck filled with F-35B jet and Merlin and Wildcat helicopters – through the waterways into the Indian Ocean.

Led by Prince of Wales and involving a dozen nations, the eight-month mission – known as Operation Highmast – will take the task group to the western Pacific Rim via the Mediterranean and Middle East with a series of large-scale exercises with Britain’s allies and partners.

OBSERVATION - Though this naval force is within reach of the Iran / Israel conflict region, there is no evidence that it is moving into position to effect the fight. This could change if Iran attacks British / European interests in the region.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- At least two people were killed on Friday in direct missile strikes launched by Iran against Israel.

- IAF has complete freedom of operation over Iran

- Iran continues to see almost nonstop bombing by Israel.

- Iran continues to threaten other nations that provide support to Israel.

- Netanyahu has sent a message to the Iranian people to overthrow the corrupt islamic regime that caused this mess.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee recently tweeted:

700,000 Americans live in Israel.
Iran is not only attacking Israel but also the Americans who live here.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamxs murdered at least five Gaza Humanitarian Foundation aid workers tonight in Gaza, according to a GHF statement. Several others were injured, and some may have been kidnapped.

——— LEBANON ———————————-

Hezbollah sent a message out yesterday that they will not be participating in any defense of Iran - they’ll be sitting this one out.

OBSERVATION - This is one of shocking significance. Hezbollah and its former massive rocket capability was an ace Iran once held. The fact that Israel so decisively neutered Hezbollah as to keep them out of this fight is remarkable.

There was a small salvo of rockets out of Lebanon, easily handled by Iron Dome. No source, but very likely from one of the smaller terror groups that have been more closely aligned with Hamas of late.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

One of yesterdays Iranian missile strikes hit a Palestinian area in the West Bank.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Israeli Air Force shot down three drones apparently launched from Yemen about an hour ago, the Israeli army says.

Houthis also launched a ballistic missile shortly after the start of the Israeli air offensive against Iran. Was shot down.

Iranian supported militias in Iraq started chest beating over the past couple days, but no actions noted yet.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The civil aviation authorities of Lebanon, Jordan and Syria reopened their airspace this morning.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Overshadowed by the war with Iran, Gaza ground operations continue with intensity. IAF is still supplying some air support to the fight.

See Iran below on that war.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

***
RECENT

Iran has warned the UK, France, and US:
Any aid to Israel will make their Middle East bases targets.

Iran’s national security council convenes to discuss continued retaliation against Israel’s attacks

Our next missile operation could involve launching approximately 2,000 missiles — Iranian Army

Israeli military releases video purportedly showing Iranian missile launchers deployed inside Tehran

Yesterday, Israel warned Iran not to target civilian areas or face an expanded attack against Iranian infrastructure (oil and others). Iran’s targeting of civilian areas is now seeing a response by Israel in that it appears to have begun targeting key Iranian industrial sites. This morning, Israeli bombs hit the west Tabriz industrial area, striking the Bonyan engine factory. An oil refinery has also been hit.

OSINT and other analysts are noting via Flight Trackers indicate that a substantial number of private jets are departing Iran, indicating that Iran’s leaders / rich are fleeing.

- - - A Quick Summary To Catch Up From The Past Days - - - -

Eight months of intensive preparations led to Israel’s attack aimed at Iran’s top military officers and scientists, as well as nuclear and missile sites. This included a significant force of Mossad agents who penetrated into Iran and even set up a drone base(s) to attack Iran’s early warning radars and ballistic missile sites.

Iran was lulled into a sense of security believing that the US would keep Israel on a short leash until at least after Sunday’s ‘negotiations’. They were all caught in bed and no alarms were raised until after the first waves of strikes occurred.

Trump has inferred that he was briefed on the operational plan, but there is no indicators that the US assisted Israel (except for some intelligence) in the attack. U.S. SoS Marco Rubio released his statement on Thursday evening, noting, “We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.” Concluding his message, Rubio stated, “Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.”

Israel’s military said about 200 aircraft were involved in Friday’s initial attack on about 100 targets. Israel from the start established complete freedom of movement in the airspace over Iran. Videos on social media show AAA guns firing blindly into the air over Tehran, totally ineffective against modern jets and munitions.

Initial strikes decimated the senior command of Irans army, IRGC and Quds forces, in a major decapitation strike. At least nine key nuclear scientists in charge of Iran’s nuclear program were also eliminated. The loss of these generals caused Iran’s military to seize up during the critical hours of initial attacks, allowing even more successful attacks on unprepared targets.

Israel’s attack hotspots so far:

- Tehran
- Tabriz
- Qom
- Ford
- Natanz
- Arak
- Ahvaz
- Shiraz
- Bushehr
- Isfahan

All the above are the major sites of both their ballistic missiles and nuclear programs.

Iran launched its first wave of response with more than 100 Shahed drones. The delay was mostly due to a panicked scramble to reestablish chains of command and reestablishment of control comms.
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the US and possibly Britain joined Israel in shooting down the Shaheed drones, none of which hit any targets.

Later that day, Iran began to launch surviving ballistic missiles at Israel in multiple salvos. Following the start of the Iranian missile attack Friday at 9:00 PM (local) approximately 200 ballistic missiles have been launched from Iran. The IDF says that the Iranians had much broader fire plans - to launch many hundreds of ballistic missiles in each barrage - but were only able to launch 5 salvos so far, each containing between 20 and 50 missiles. There were unconfirmed reports that many missiles malfunctioned shortly after launch.

These smaller salvos permitted the Israeli Arrow, THAAD and even Iron Dome to take out the vast majority of the missiles. I’ve only seen reports of 9 missile impacts out of this approximately 200 missiles. Iron Dome was documented as intercepting ballistic missiles (that penetrated the Arrow defense system).

Iron Dome was designed for intercepting rockets, not missiles. Evidently, Israeli engineers and scientists made great modifications to the system to supplement defenses.

It is estimated that Israel destroyed about 25% of the 1000-2000 missiles Iran had ready for launch (huge secondary explosions in missile depots in Kermanshah and Tabriz). At the current salvo rate, Iran could sustain this level of attack for about 10 days.

The Israeli Air Force continues to hunt down Iranian ballistic missile launchers over western Iran. It doesn’t matter how many missiles they’ve got, the bottleneck is always the number of launchers. This is were Mossad and the swarm of Israeli reconnaissance drones are earning their pay, locating and helping to destroy these systems.

Yesterday, Iranian leaders were reportedly seeking help from the US to stop the onslaught.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS (Gasping for breath)

At risk of repeating myself, this attack is one for the history books. The level of success is a credit to the planning efforts of the military and the exceptional intelligence and infiltration of Iran by the Mossad. The level of support in the misinformation campaign by the Trump team helped immensely - even had me scratching my head as to just what they were pushing for. Checked off nearly all the boxes for any kind of an attack. As I predicted, top of the list was reducing remaining air defense, command / control strikes (the massive take out of Iranian command) and initial hits on Irans ability to retaliate.

That last point has been made clear over the past 24 hours with the vastly reduced numbers of drones and ballistic missiles. Out of an estimated 1000-2000 rockets ready to be launched, Iran was only able to get about 200 into the air and the vast majority of those were taken down. Iran also helped Israel in that the barrages were much smaller in number, permitting air defenses to be more effective and not overwhelmed.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE FUTURE.

Israel has stated on several occasions that its efforts alone would take up to two weeks to achieve the level of destruction to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs to satisfy its immediate to short term defensive needs. Israel has complete control of air space above Iran and can almost leisurely strike and restrike targets at will. Israeli drones are swarming over key areas of Iran, many equipped with missiles for more detailed and opportunistic strike possibilities. Israeli eyes are everywhere.

Iran will continue to have the capability to launch missiles at Israel, though this capability will continue to be degraded with each day and destruction of launch sites and TELs. This scenario is very similar to what happened to Hezbollah and Hamas.

Iran’s path forward will be very difficult for the islamic leadership to navigate.
Should they attempt to strike out at US bases or regional nations that provided support to Israel (Jordan and Saudi Arabia), they risk drawing direct wrath from the US. So far Trump is satisfied at letting Israel do the work and he’ll supply more bombs as necessary. But Iran’s desperate lack of air defenses should make the thought of even unstealthy B52s unleashing hell over Tehran a scary matter.

Similar thought train on closing the Straits of Hormuz. It would open up Iran to US intervention as well as potentially European nation attacks.

Iran is also has a very vulnerable oil production and transporting system. A strike on Kharg Island for instance would shut down 90% of their oil export capabilities. This would impact China big time who has been a major importer of Iranian oil.

Iran could petition the US in Sunday’s negotiations for relief, but I think the US will continue to hold a hard line on the nuclear program that Iran has vowed to rebuild as well as its ballistic missile program. I don’t think Iran is willing to make the concessions at this stage to save face in the arab world. But I could be wrong. As far as I can see, the US is more than willing to let Israel play out its attacks for the next couple of weeks.

Just about any move Iran can make at this time will only make things nearly worse by an order of magnitude. Is the ruling junta willing to go full blown jihadi and try to take the whole region down with them?

ISRAELI OPTIONS
Israel has nearly complete freedom of operation over Iran. It can strike wherever and when ever it desires. There are currently no serious conditions that could force them to stop their operations until they deem them to be finished - in about two weeks. So far Trump is willing to allow them to continue, even warning that worse is yet to come should Iran reject US conditions.

Much of the targeting by Israel will now be in response to continued actions by Iran, such as more ballistic missile attacks. Israel is trying to woo the peoples of Iran who are greatly dissatisfied with the mullahs and avoiding infrastructure that would impact them in a negative way. This makes a strike on Kharg Island a lower probability target unless Iran does something very significant. Israel has hit some infrastructure as promised for Iran’s targeting of Israeli civilian centers, but seems to be doing so in a restrained manner.

Expect the tempo to decline some as the urgency to hit first and hard is less than at the beginning. Again, unrestricted access over Iran has permitted a great deal more flexibility of targeting. Lots of inherent dangers still lie ahead, much of it depends on Iranian desperation.

Misc of Note –

I’ll take a moment to bleat here and possibly anger some by calling out some of those who call themselves ‘conservative’ who’ve gone the antisemitic route and want no involvement in the ongoing conflict Israel finds itself in - saying its ‘not our fight’.

I strongly disagree with these ‘young’ people.

They were likely in their diapers, if born yet at all, when islamic radicals captured the Embassy in Tehran in 1979 - All the while since chanting “Death to America”
That’s when our fight started

Lebanon - Iran suppled support to terrorist elements that killed a substantial number of US soldier in that country. This is our fight

Iran supplied support to Iraqi militias and Afghan Taliban, killing hundreds of US soldiers. This is our fight

Iran has illegally captured our naval vessels in the Persian Gulf region and openly humiliated their crews.
This is our fight.

Hamas and Hezbollah have killed Americans including US citizens held hostage by Hamas after Oct 7 - both funded and supported by Iran
This is our fight

Iranian backed Houthis attacked US shipping interests in the Red Sea region as well as our military vessels
This is our fight

A nuclear armed Iran would increase global terror by orders of magnitude. Over the years Iran has threatened the US with a nuclear strike
This is our fight.

I’m appalled that some of these internet voices have even gone as far as to say the US should bomb Tel Aviv

Israel since its reestablishment has faced nearly constant attacks by arab / islamic forces. On Oct 7, it happened again by Iranian backed Hamas forces who turned Gaza into a rat hole of underground bunkers and used water pipes for the construction of rockets, Brutally attacked Israeli’s trying to live peacefully. Hezbollah had similar plans, but Hamas jumped the gun. Forcing Israel to act out of self defense. Now Israel is facing the origin of recent terror attacks on the nation, a nation who has declared its will to wipe the jewish race off the face of the entire earth, and not just the land of Israel itself.

So to those ‘conservative’ voices out there, and I’m sure many of you know who I’m talking about, who’ve been speaking that this isn’t our fight - better do your homework and quit echoing the anti-semitic tripe out there.

Happy Father’s day

Yesterday was a wash with chaos, so let us begin.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Bilderberg’s 71st meeting kicked off in Stockholm, Sweden Thursday, where global elites convened behind closed doors amid tensions across Europe and the Middle East, and against the backdrop of President Donald Trump’s assault on their favorite thing of all time; globalism. The shadowy group, which was founded in 1954, infamously bans media and enforces a code of silence, fueling concerns of hidden agendas and backroom deals shaping the world’s future.

OBSERVATIONS - More will get leaked out later.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025

So looks like a successful turnout for the left. However, they are hyping the levels of turnout via their many mouthpieces. The question is does this do anything? Will it move the needle for the democrat left.

Concern over post protest turning into riots never really materialized either. Some of the standard trouble areas did break out with violence -

Salt Lake City - At least one person was critically injured at the rowdy anti-Trump “No Kings” march in Salt Lake City, Utah, on Saturday night. No report on the reason for the shooting.
KUTV reported that some 10,000 people were participating in the march between Pioneer Park and the Federal Building on Saturday when chaos erupted and shots were fired. The shooting critically injured at least one unidentified individual near 200 South State Street, and law enforcement arrested one suspect.

Washington DC - Anti-Trump protesters with “No Kings” are blocked the roads to the White House and they are yelling “86-47”, which is a call for the assassination of President Trump. NOTE DC did not have an official “No King” rally.

Los Angeles — U.S. Marines try to push back open border rioters who want to storm a federal building they’ve surrounded all week in the insurrection. Some in the crowd threw projectiles at the Marines.

Rioters in Los Angeles opened fire hydrants in an effort to deny the LAFD water pessary to extinguish whatever they burn down

Portland - A riot was declared in Portland as Antifa attack the ICE building again as part of the “No Kings” anti-Trump protest.
Antifa in Portland urged protesters who attended the “No Kings” anti-Trump event to rush straight to the local ICE building right after. The militants there then violently smashed up the building, forcing officers to rush out and respond.

Seattle — Antifa and far-left extremists surrounded and blocked off an ICE building to trap ICE staff and agents inside.
After officers cleared the illegal blockade, antifa screamed and cursed as the transport vehicles left the Tukwila DHS facility.
Seattle Antifa members threw rocks and projectiles at law enforcement outside a DHS building after their hostage-taking blockade was smashed apart.

Tukwila, Wash. — Hours after Antifa besieged the exterior of a DHS building near Seattle, federal officers responded & smashed apart their barrier. The militants can be seen throwing projectiles at officers, including what appears to be frozen bottles.

Seattle — After failing to blockade DHS officers for long earlier in the day, Antifa regrouped downtown and started fires in the street and are attacking the federal building again.

Seattle — Antifa are confronting and attacking drivers in the street in downtown as part of their anti-ICE insurrection against the U.S. government.

Denver - Police use paintballs/tear gas to disperse crowd in Denver.
Scuffles break out but are quickly overcome by police/Sherriff LEOs and the crowd is pushed back.
It was declared an unlawful assembly more than 5 minutes before.

OBSERVATION - Mixed bag for the left. Observations continue to have the main demographic being senior white persons. Even in heavily black areas, black turnout was very low. The organizers threw hundreds of millions at organizing these events and managed to get a reasonable turnout.

OTOH, the violent left came up empty handed. With the demographics of the crowd being far older than they like, they could’t effectively hide in it or find much support. Hence the main violence occurred where it has already been going on, principally LA, Portland and Seattle - antifa strongholds. Events gave no momentum for the development of a violent summer as many have voiced warnings and concerns over.

Now, this ‘movement’ is facing scrutiny over its funding and if a link can be made to the anti-ICE violence, hopefully people will start going to jail.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

Lone wolf attacks triggered by the Israel / Iran conflict are more likely now.

***
A Minnesota state lawmaker and her husband were killed Friday night and others have been shot in what authorities are calling “multiple targeted attacks.”

Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark were shot and killed in Brooklyn Park in what police are calling a politically motivated attack. DFL Sen. John Hoffman and his wife Yvette were also shot in their neighborhood of and Champlin, Minnesota. Police are searching for a suspect who may be impersonating a police officer.

Hortman was Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2019-2025 and on Monday cast the lone DFL vote to end undocumented adult immigrants’ eligibility for MinnesotaCare. Hoffman voted against the repeal. The bill passed by a narrow 68-65 vote during an emotional session.

From a police source in Minnesota, the suspect in the shootings of MN state lawmakers is Vance Luther Boelter. It appears it is the same Boelter who was appointed to the Governor’s Workforce Development Board in 2019 by Gov. Tim Walz. He appointed to the Governor’s Workforce Development Council in 2016 by then-Gov. Mark Dayton. Boelter leads an African migrant support nonprofit in Minnesota.

He managed to escape from a shoot out with police. In his vehicle were found a manifesto identifying numerous lawmakers and public officials as potential targets.

They found fliers from the so-called No Kings far-left organization in his car. This is the same group that is trying to organize at least 1500 anti ICE and anti Trump “protests” this weekend.

Police are asking the public to not attend the statewide No Kings protests against President Trump scheduled for today -

“Given the targeted shootings of state lawmakers overnight, we are asking the public to not attend today’s planned demonstrations across MN...” said the MN State Patrol with the photo of the flyers.

OBSERVATION - No announced motive except for the linkage to the vote to end undocumented adult immigrants’ eligibility for MinnesotaCare. The leftist influences quickly jumped on the story hoping the perp was a MAGA, now are deeply saddened and silent.
This is another instance where the left has conditioned sheeple to resort to violence and even murder. This is a double edge sword and it cut opposite to the desires of the left.

UPDATE - As of this morning the search is still on. Minnesota officials confirm they will not be releasing the manifesto of Vance Boelter, the individual who faked being a cop to gain entry into Rep. Melissa Hortman’s home and claim her and her husband’s life.

The wife of suspected political assassin Vance Boetler is being detained and questioned after cops found a weapon, ammunition, cash and passports in her car during a traffic stop on Saturday morning, a report said.
Jenny Boetler was stopped by police while driving in a car with several relatives near Onamia, Minnesota, late Saturday morning around 10 a.m., local KTSP reported.

In the car she had a weapon, ammunition, cash and passports, that report stated citing law enforcement officials.

***

The Texas state Capitol was evacuated over threats to lawmakers amid the anti-Trump “No Kings” protests. The threats happened on the same day as the targeted shootings of lawmakers in Minnesota.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1933981783164436565?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

See potential Delta Force involvement in Iran.

TRUMP Watch –

President Trump:
“I’m the one who developed the term ‘America First’ so I decide that. For those who say they want peace, you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. Those who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon, that’s not peace.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. had “nothing to do with” Israel’s attack against Iran Sunday morning, warning that any attack against the U.S. will be met with the “full strength and might” of the U.S. military.

“If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before,” he continued. “However, we can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict!!!”

Illegal Immigration –

President Trump’s administration has informed the judge who ordered the release of college riot organizer Mahmoud Khalil that they will not comply.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 50-70, widely scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports about a large missile and drone attack.

Shot down:
159/183 Shahed and other type UAVs
2/2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
0/1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile
3/4 Iskander-K cruise missiles
3/4 Kalibr cruise missiles

Overnight, Russian forces launched a massive attack on Kremenchuk, Poltava region, reportedly the largest since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Regional Administration said. The city was struck simultaneously by Shahed drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, causing multiple explosions and widespread fires.

Russian losses per 15/06/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff

+1170 men
+6 AFVs
+33 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD systems

Summary —

Ukraine conflict is stuck in the same rut. Drone / missile attacks by each side and a continued meat grinder along the front with Russia now appearing to be losing some momentum it had developed over the past few weeks.

Pakistan / India –

Pakistan air force has reportedly been put on alert for the border region with Iran. Officials warn Israel to stay away or else face the country’s wrath.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- IDF eliminated Mohammed al-Amri, Chief of Staff of the Yemeni Houthis and a lot of his staff

- Continued strikes on Iranian targets

- Iranian missiles managed to hit Haifa and Tel Aviv region, many casualties.

- Questionable if any negotiations will occur between US and Iran today.

- Israel requests direct support to deal with the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP)

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu:
What the Iranian regime has felt so far is nothing compared to what it will see in the coming days.

Due to fears of Iranian retaliation: Israel’s diplomatic missions around the world are closed, diplomats have been instructed not to leave their homes, and the diplomats’ children are not going to school.

Defense Minister Israel Katz warns Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei that if missiles continue to be fired at Israel, “Tehran will burn.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Two rockets were launched within the last few minutes at communities in Southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, with both falling in open areas near Nir Oz.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Overall quiet.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Quiet, see Syria separately below for actions.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Generally quiet here as well.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

While IAF is hitting Iran, it also hit a key Houthi target. IDF is now attacking in a targeted manner in Yemen. Mohammed al-Amri, Chief of Staff of the Yemeni Houthis, was eliminated. A covert Houthi command center housing 12 senior figures, including the Chief of Staff, was struck.

Missile launches detected from Yemen

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Yesterday Israel was engaging Hamas, Iran and the Houthis, all at the same time. Incredible.

As far as limited reporting goes, Gaza continues to fall under IDF assaults.

See Iran below on that war.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

Iran’s overnight attacks on Israel included a total of 70 (some say as high as 100) ballistic missiles and dozens of drones, according to the Israeli army’s latest estimates. The missiles were fired in three waves at 11 p.m., 2 a.m., and 2:55 a.m., coinciding with the dozens of drones. One projectile struck a home in the predominantly Arab town of Tamra, killing four civilians; another struck Bat Yam, killing at least six civilians and wounding nearly 200; and another struck Rehovot, wounding another 40 people. The military says that so far, Iran’s attacks are below the “reference scenario,” or what the Israeli army had anticipated in a war with Iran. The Israeli army had estimated far larger numbers of casualties and more significant damage. Iran is still believed to possess thousands of ballistic missiles.

***
Overnight Israeli strikes in Tehran include four main targets in particular: Ministry of Defense building, the local nuclear headquarters, nuclear laboratories, and oil depots. There were also strikes reported on the Malek Ashtar University of Technology.
Reports indicate the Iranian Defense Ministry in Tehran has come under attack.
Israel struck Tehran’s main gasoline storage depot tonight, setting off massive explosions. An Iranian official said that “the depots were exploding one after another,” threatening nearby neighborhoods. The targeted oil facility, the Shahran Oil Depot, holds 260 million liters across 11 containers and produces 7 million liters daily for the Tehran area.
The homes of IRGC commanders in Tehran’s Mahallati neighborhood were also targeted.

IDF Spokesperson:
Overnight: Missile launchers in Iran were identified and attacked - In the last hour, the Air Force completed another wave of attacks in western Iran against missile storage and launch infrastructure*

***
A senior Israeli official tells the Wall Street Journal the war will end only when Iran’s nuclear program is damaged beyond recovery.

Iran’s Supreme-Leader Ali Khamenei is “not off limits” from targeting as Israel proceeds with its intensive air campaign in Iran, an Israeli official told the Wall Street Journal.

***
Iran reportedly has turned to Oman and Qatar to mediate a ceasefire with Washington amid Israeli strikes. The U.S. insists Tehran must fully halt uranium enrichment to stop the offensive. Saudi Arabia is also involved in backchannel talks. Israel, meanwhile, is pushing for eventual U.S. participation in the military campaign.

Iran Deputy Foreign Minister: If Israeli attacks end, we may return to the negotiating table

***
The U.S. State Department urges all American citizens to leave Iran immediately

***
Israel has officially requested that the United States join its ongoing operation against Iran, particularly targeting underground nuclear facilities such as the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), which the Israeli Air Force does not have the means to effectively strike without “bunker busters” like the GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator).

Rumint. US reports:
US Army Delta Force has been ordered to prepare to take over the Fordow nuclear site.

***
Israeli and U.S. defense sources say the Israeli strike has temporarily disabled the Isfahan nuclear facility, calling it a major achievement in blocking Iran’s ability to quickly advance toward a nuclear bomb.

***
Reports now from Iran of a targeted assassination also in the heart of Tehran. Area hit contains other senior leaders of govt and military.
RELATED - Observers noting that private jets continue to stream out of Tehran. A Russian source says that senior Iranian officials are moving their families to Russia.

***

A White House official: “Whatever happens today cannot be prevented. But we have the ability to negotiate a successful peaceful resolution to this conflict if Iran is willing. The fastest way for Iran to accomplish peace is to give up its nuclear weapons program”

***
Unconfirmed reports said Khamenei has fled to Mashhad, northeast of Iran and the farthest from Israel. Israeli planes reportedly were attacking targets in the city shortly after this report came out.

Khamenei:
“The Zionist regime has made a big mistake, a grave error, and committed a reckless act. By God’s grace, the consequences of this will bring that regime to ruin. The Islamic Republic will triumph over the Zionist regime, by the will of God.”

***
According to Iranian media, About 25% of Iran’s gas supply comes from the Fajr Jam refinery, which was targeted yesterday by Israel
Israeli source to Fox News reported that a second gas facility, near the port of Bandar Abbas was also hit- after the attack on the gas facility in Bushehr. According to the report, a single warning attack was carried out “to send a message to the leadership in Tehran”

***
The IDF reports it has eliminated over 21 senior Iranian commanders, and nuclear scientists including Iran’s top intelligence officer Gholam-Reza Marhabi, IRGC missile chief Mohammad Bagheri, and IRGC Aerospace Force head Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

Confirmed Killed

1. Major General Hossein Salami Commander‑in‑Chief of the IRGC
2. Major General Mohammad Bagheri Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces
3. Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani Expediency Discernment Council Member / Adviser to Supreme Leader
4. Major General Gholam Ali Rashid Commander of Khatam‑al Anbiya Central HQ
5. Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh Head of IRGC Aerospace Force
6. Esmail Qaani
Commander, IRGC Quds Force
7. Brigadier General Davoud Shaykhian Head of IRGC Aerospace Air Defense Command
8. Brigadier General Taher Pour
Head of IRGC UAV Forces
9. Brigadier General Masoud Shane’e Chief of Staff, IRGC
10. Major General Gholamreza Mehrabi Deputy Minister of Intelligence
11. Major General Mehdi Rabbani Deputy Chief of Operations
12. Seyed Amir Hossein Feqhi – Deputy Head, Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / Nuclear Engineering Professor, Shahid Beheshti University
13. Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi President, Islamic Azad University
14. Fereydoon Abbasi
Former Head of AEOI (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran)
15. Dr. Abdolhamid Minouchehr
Head of Nuclear Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University
16. Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari
Nuclear Engineering Professor, Shahid Beheshti University
17. Motalibizadeh
Nuclear Scientist
18. Amin Abbas Rashid
Son of Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid
19. Ali Bekaei Karimi Nuclear Scientist
20. Mansour Asgari Nuclear Scientist
21. Saeed Borji Nuclear Scientist

Unconfirmed / No Status Reported

Ali Akbar Ahmadian Secretary, Supreme National Security Council / Member, Expediency Discernment Council

Brigadier General Reza Mozaffarinia Chief, SPND (Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research)

Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi IRGC Intelligence Chief

Numbers increase daily, as I think a few more were added overnight.

***
Security forces with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have begun to establish checkpoints in several cities across Iran, searching vehicles for anything deemed to be suspicious, after a truck was found earlier today which is believed to have been used by Mossad to launch explosive-laden drones against targets inside Iran.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -

Israel continues to strike Iran at will. Targets are so many in number that is is very difficult to keep track of them. I expect to see a more substantial shift towards infrastructure (oil) following last nights missile attack by Iran.

Iran apparently did succeed in saturating Israels defenses around Haifa, getting some strikes in. However, one strike hit an arab town. Not likely to gains supporters there. The later strikes hit the Tel Aviv region with serious damage and deaths/injuries. Apparently the defenses were saturated again. That said, Israeli maintained a solid 90% take down rate, averting even more serious damage.

Significant to note. Iran said they were going to hit Israel with a thousand missiles last night. They could only muster between 70 - 100. This is down significantly from the 200 fired the night before. This is evidence that Israel is degrading Iranian missile capabilities. Much of the success has been IAF’s identification and quick destruction of mobile launchers. Mossad eyes combined with recon drones scouring missile bases and potential launch sites have permitted Israel to hit early and hard. Many of last night’s launchers have already been targeted and taken out.

On the flip side, more got thru last night than Friday nite. Observers noted that it appeared Iran used a mix of missiles and more of a point saturation to gain more falls. More drones also arriving at the same time also worked to task the Israeli ADA efforts. Today we will see if Israel’s success hitting launchers, missile stockpiles and bases continues.

Even with last night’s successes by Iran, casualties were substantially below Israeli estimates..

As these missile / drone attacks focused on principally civilian areas and not military, Israel’s threats to expand air strikes to infrastructure will gain prominence.

Iran started toeing the line overnight with attacks by its proxy militias on US forces and facilities in Iraq. By hiding behind the proxy elements, Iran hopes to avoid the appearance that they have struck US interests / forces in the region and thereby avoid the wrath Trump promised (See Trump Watch above). It may not work given that Trump has stated any attack by a proxy element will be considered an attack by Iran proper. This may well trigger US involvement in a big way.

Israel seeks US assistance in taking out the Fordow site.
Fordow is the toughest nut to crack with the deepest bunkers for operations. This is what the GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) was designed for, deeply embedded targets. I wonder about the RUMINT of Delta Force operations to take the facility on the ground. Israeli has commando units of comparable quality that could do the same task. This could be another head fake away from the use of a MOP. Israel / US have been confounding Iran on policies and actions for days now.

As vulnerable Iran is at the moment, it would be a really stupid move to hit US interests and not expect promised US attacks.

Iran is still struggling to restore a cohesive command and control structure. This may be hampered by leadership focused on getting their families out of dodge, rather than fight a war.

WHAT I EXPECT TODAY
Israel will expand its target list to more oil/gas sites as well as military related sites near residential areas. Israel put out warnings to Iranians living near such sites to get out of the way. I also expect to see up tempo strikes targeting more Iranian leadership - principally the ruling mullahs.

Iran will struggle to maintain its only strike option - missiles - alive for another day. Evidence that Iran is relying more and more on mobile units is evident. Their fixed and protected’ silos largely out of action. I expect another round of drone / missile attacks. What will be important is how may missiles Iran will be able to get into the air. Will the apparent downward trend continue?

Finally, I expect to see more attempts by Iranian proxy elements to hit US forces and embassy facilities in Iraq. It could give full justification for the US to step in and strike places like Fordow. B52s over Tehran and other parts of Iran, dropping ordinance, would be a frightful scene for the mullahs.

Iraq -

Kurdish media reports that a one-way attack drone launched by Iran or Iranian-backed forces in Iraq, crashed earlier near the city of Erbil, with it possibly attempting to strike the U.S. General Consulate in Erbil, Northern Iraq.

Arab networks report a drone attack on the American embassy in Baghdad

Other news of a drone attack on US forces in Syria.

Syria -

Ahmed al-Shara’s (Syria) security forces were sent to the border with Iraq to secure the area from threats of a possible invasion by Iranian Shiite militias who are threatening to advance by land towards Israel.

Delayed due to some breaking news on the Iran / Israel situation.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Leaders of some of the world’s wealthiest countries have descended on a luxury mountain lodge nestled in Canada’s Rockies for this year’s G7 summit.
The elite gathering comes as Western allies face numerous crises, from conflicts on three continents to global economic instability.
Canada chairs the G7 this year and will host leaders of Italy, US, France, Germany, UK and Japan in Kananaskis, Alberta. It has promised a set of streamlined priorities focused around the global economy and security.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025

Things have quieted down significantly in LA and other Antifa supported, anti ICE operations. The “No King” rallies did not provide the angry and destructive demographic Antifa was hoping for to launch the anti-ICE riots nationwide.

The potential for continued riots remains as Trump moves forward with targeting five other sanctuary cities for mass ICE operations. These area have high Antifa presence.

A major difference is noted on LA versus Portland / Seattle protection of ICE / Federal facilities. In LA, CANG and Marines have pretty much doused the direct attacks on those facilities, causing rioters to seek softer targets. In Seattle and Portland, military is not present and those facilities have to rely on federal officers with local law enforcement back up. They have been battered pretty hard. As Trump’s right to deploy military and nationalize national guard forces to protect these other federal facilities gets re-established after activist judges try to remove that power gets restored, they will continue to have a rough go. Courts are trending to support Trump’s use of available laws, laws used a number of times before. He may next deploy forces to these other cities.

***
A Latino radical leftist and Antifa supporter has been charged with murder after a man shot at the Salt Lake City “No Kings” protest died from his injuries.

Arturo Gamboa, wearing all black, allegedly had a rifle. A “No Kings” liberal “peacekeeper” volunteer with bad aim tried taking out Gamboa but instead fatally wounded a bystander. Afa Ah Loo (pictured below in the portrait) died. Suspect Gamboa only suffered a graze wound.

The “peacekeeper” has not been named and police have not stated if he will face any charges.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1934363342367240584?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkSh

***
Los Angeles — Far-left anti-ICE extremists threaten staff working at a Hilton hotel as they start a fire and vandalize the building in the name of open borders.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

Vance Boelter, identified as a suspected assassin in Minnesota , has been taken into custody after surrendering to authorities in a wooded area near Green Isle, Minnesota, according to KSTP.

OBSERVATONS - Still a lot of questions.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Oil prices steadied but holding on to most of last week’s increase.

Brent was last off 0.5% at $73.85 a barrel,, but last week’s 13% surge means its inflationary pulse, if sustained, could make the Federal Reserve more nervous about giving too many hints at its Wednesday meeting about interest rate cuts later in the year.

Markets are still wagering on two easings by December, with a first move in September seen as most likely.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/oil-middle-east/2025/06/16/id/1215102/

OBSERVATION - At this stage, I think the Fed is grasping for anything to keep rates high and avoid reduction.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Nimitz popped up on AIS last night and looks to be heading towards Singapore and a Malacca Strait transit. This will soon place it in the Indian Ocean.

The DOD has officially confirmed that the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN-68), and its strike group are headed to the Middle East from the Pacific.
The US Navy will have two carrier strike groups operating in CENTCOM.

OBSERVATIONS - Oh boy, things to heat up even more in Iran.

***
OSINT and other observers have raised alerts overnight over a substantial deployment out of the US of 28 KC-135s and 4 KC-46s air refueling tankers (32 total).

A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR. The flight profiles suggested that they were not dragging combat aircraft with them.
Observers note their numbers on a Sunday night, are quite unusual.

OBSERVATION - Details still not clear on this deployment, but movement of key pieces of equipment like this to the middle east region (yet to be confirmed) or where they can quickly reinforce the region is an important indicator of potential action.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump to ABC: We’re not involved in a war right now. But it’s possible we could get involved

North/South Korea –

North Korean troops have suffered more than 6,000 casualties fighting for Russia in the war against Ukraine, more than half of the about 11,000 soldiers initially sent to the Kursk region, the British Defense Ministry said in a post on X on Sunday.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/north-korea-russia-troops/2025/06/15/id/1215078/

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia demands that Ukraine destroy Western weapons to end military operations, says Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Grushko

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 50-70, widely scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 138 Shahed type drones. In total, 125 of them were neutralized. 84 shot down and 41 suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 16/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1200 men
+2 tanks
+7 AFVs
+18 artillery
+1 AD system

North-Slobozhansky (Sumy) -

General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine to report Sumy direction as North-Slobozhansky direction and Kharkiv direction as South-Slobozhansky direction

Summary —
Pretty much the standard fare. Many details overwhelmed in the news cycle by the Iran / Israel war.

Poland –

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland is organizing the evacuation of Polish citizens from the Middle East. Both military and civil flights are prepared, if conditions allow. Return to the country is free of charge.

Europe / NATO General –

European Commission President: Iran is a source of instability in the region, and Israel has the right to defend itself.

French President Emmanuel Macron said he does not believe Russia can serve as a mediator in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel

EU Foreign Ministers will hold an emergency meeting to address the situation with Iran.

Pakistan / India –

The border between Pakistan and Iran has been closed after crowds of people entered from Iran, in what appears to be a breach of fences and an unorganized crossing.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Rough night again as some of the Iranian missiles strike civilian sites in Haifa and Tel Aviv

- IAF continues to pound targets throughout Iran

- Gaza offensive continues to move forward

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel warns Iran that retribution for targeting civilians with missiles (see Iran below for details)

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF airstrikes hit key targets in Gaza overnight as the ground operation continues to chew up Hamasl

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Hezbollah releases another statement saying that they will not be participating in the Israel / Iran fight.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthis fire drones at Israel, all shot down.

***
Pro-Iranian faction in Iraq Kataib Hezbollah declared that the Islamic Republic of Iran does not require external military support to counter Israel, claiming it has the manpower and capabilities to “humiliate Netanyahu.”

The group warned that any American intervention in the conflict would trigger a direct response from Kataib Hezbollah against U.S. interests and bases in the region. It called on the Iraqi government, the Coordination Framework, and allied militias to act decisively by shutting down the U.S. embassy and expelling American forces from Iraq, framing the U.S. as the primary threat to Iraq’s security and regional stability.

https://x.com/joetruzman/status/1934260747409985930?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza, Lebanon and Syria are relatively stable. Buried under the news of the fight with Iran, Hamas continues to lose ground and troops in its fight against IDF.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

PLEASE NOTE - Things have been fast and furious overt here lately and events have been already overcome by other events in many instances. Though I try, there are events I may have noted but failed to report. Highly dynamic and fluid.

Iran is seeking negotiations with the U.S. and Israel, sending messages through Arab mediators calling for a halt to hostilities, The Wall Street Journal.
Tehran has privately indicated it is willing to resume talks if the U.S. refrains from military intervention.

- - - Iranian missile strikes - - - -

Iran has fired 350 ballistic missiles at Israel since Friday, IDF confirms
Iran has launched around 350 ballistic missiles at Israel since Friday, according to new IDF data. Most were intercepted, but some broke through, causing deadly impact.

Iran fired more rockets at Israel, once again focusing on Haifa and Tel Aviv. About 90 rockets were fired in two salvos. However, I haven’t found an official count yet. Israeli air defenses once again took out about 90% of the incoming missiles, however, those that managed to penetrate caused significant damages and loss of life / injuries.

The first wave consisted of about 30 missiles with a few impacts noted in the Haifa region. Some minor injuries reported.

A follow-on strike appears to have been preempted by aggressive IAF action. Israelis were ordered to shelters upon notification that rockets were about to be launched. Nearly the same time, IAF announced a full court effort to take out launchers and launch sites. IAF reported they hit 70 launchers, and nothing was launched for nearly 4 hours after the first alert.

The second, more deadly wave did launch targeting Haifa and Tel Aviv. One penetrated and hit an apartment tower, with many casualties.

The two attacks resulted in -

5 people were killed
87 were wounded:

Damage was sustained to the U.S. embassy branch/consulate in Tel Aviv, Israel from a nearby Iranian missile impact. The target of the Iranian missile remains unclear. No American casualties reported in this incident, in any media yet. Consulate to remain closed for now.

Mixed in were drone attacks from Iran, Houthis and possibly Iranian backed militias in Iraq.

Iran is now reported to be hiding missiles and launchers within civilian areas. The IRGC has turned buildings near the Farabi Hospital in Kermanshah, Iran , into missile depots, and is weaponizing IAF strikes targeting the launchers there as propaganda.

It also says the IAF has struck at least seven missile depots near the residential neighborhoods of Dowlat Abad and Dizel Abad in Kermanshah and that the IRGC launched missiles from these areas at Israel last night.

The Air Force simultaneously destroyed more than 20 ballistic missiles last night before they could be launched towards the State of Israel.
The Iranians launched only half of the missiles they planned to launch last night.

- - - Israeli air strikes - - - -

Today, IAF resumes hitting a broad range of targets, appearing to focus on damaging Iran’s ability to launch further missile attacks, as well as hitting nuclear and ballistic missile production. Increasing numbers of attacks on infrastructure are also expected.

Israel continued to strike at will across Iran yesterday. Military and govt buildings within Tehran were hammered hard with more significant results. Attacks elsewhere are too many to keep track of.

One strike took out the Basij headquarters. Basij is the “riot police” in charge of cracking down on protests. They have the blood of thousands of Iranians on their hands.

IDF Spokesperson:
At a distance of approximately 2,300 kilometers, the Air Force recently attacked an Iranian refueling plane at Mashhad Airport in eastern Iran. The Air Force is working to achieve air superiority throughout Iran.
This is the furthest strike since the start of the operation.
NOTE - Khammeni is believed to be hiding in this region.

- - - Other Key News - - - -

The IAEA says the loss of power at the Natanz nuclear site (either caused by IAF strikes, cyberattacks, or both) may have destroyed some of the 14,000 centrifuges there, reports the WSJ.
An Israeli official said there were indications that part of the Natanz facility may have imploded, but further assessment is needed.

OBSERVATION - Key point is that unless the centrifuges are carefully slowed and shut down, the sudden loss of power and uncontrolled slowing down of the machine will cause them to literally fly apart. Israel’s strike at Natanz on day one most likely prohibited this critical shut down.

***
Five explosive devices detonated in Tehran yesterday, resulting int he death of at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists.

The population of Tehran is panicking and fleeing the city. Roads jammed packed as they flee to the countryside. Power is out in much of the city as well as water and sewer service being out/damages. Panic buying and markets in Tehran have been shut down.

Heavy crowds reported at the Bazargan border crossing on the Iran-Türkiye border as Iranians flee the country.

***
Iran continues to plea for countries to help intercede with Israel to stop the attacks.

***
Unrest grows to topple the Mullahs -

The Baloch Salafi group:
Has joined the calls for a Baloch and Iranian National Uprising against the Islamic Republic following the Israeli strikes against Iran

The Communist Party of Iran (CPI) is calling for a nationwide uprising to topple the Iranian regime.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS

Iran’s ballistic missile shooters appear to have found a crease in Israel’s ABM shield, focused on Haifa and Tel Aviv. Densely populated, even a few missiles that penetrate the defense can cause considerable damage and loss of life. Israel is only into its fourth day of battle, but already its suppression of Iran’s ballistic retaliation efforts is substantial. Only about 90 missiles in yesterday’s attack in total. Think back to the horror stories / threats of thousands of missiles Iran threatened to launch daily.

OTOH, Israel’s complete dominance of the skies over Iran continues to be remarkable and Israel is taking full advantage of it. Iran’s regime is getting pummeled and has no way to defend itself.

FUTURE OUTLOOK -

I expect to see Israel continue to hit ballistic missile targets (fixed and mobile) and Iran’s ability to use them continue to decline. Iran will continue to see massive destruction of its military, govt and infrastructure. Tehran will seriously burn today.

Biggest moves are the apparent increase in US assets moving into position. Biggest stick is the Vinson CSG now enroute to join CENTCOM for action. This assessment is backed up by the significant deployment of air refueling tankers into Europe and further east. The US will need these to fuel hungry fighters and bombers. Trump has also left it hanging, suggesting that the US may soon enter the fight - most likely with heavy bombers - to hit Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). The MOPs will also be useful for other deeply dug Iranian facilities and bases. A flight of B52s alone would carry nearly as much ordinance as the entire IAF.

Window for US action is at least a week, in order to get the Nimitz into position.

It is unknown at this stage just what the UK’s HMS Prince of Wales ad hoc CSG is going to get involved against Iran. Three major CSGs in the region is serious fire power.

Iran is playing with fire in allowing its proxy militias to target US facilities and troops in Iraq. Could be justification for a quicker strike by US before additional forces are in the region. Iran is so weakened that current forces could wreak signifiant damage.

Finally are Iran’s increasing pleas for foreign intervention to stop the attacks and more critically, prevent US forces from entering the fray. Their biggest fear are the MOPs that can be delivered to Fordow and other deeply dug facilities. I think that Trump will execute some form of an attack, most likely on Fordow with the additional firepower to dissuade Iran from attempting to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. How massive the US action will be depends heavily upon Iran’s future actions against Israel and more precisely against US bases and interests.

Iraq -

Security Alert in Iraq issued by State Department, citing possibility of terrorist attacks or violence against US businesses and “locations frequented by US
citizens.”

***
Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani says Iraq is ready to assist Iran in dealing with the aftermath of Israeli strikes. The Iraqi army has deployed a Pantsir missile system in Maysan, southeastern Iraq.

***

According to local reports, a little before last night’s Iranian ballistic missile attack against Israel, sirens sounded at Al-Asad Airbase in the Anbar Province of Western Iraq. U.S. Servicemembers at the base were forced to take shelter, as several drones heading in the direction of Al-Asad were intercepted. No drones struck inside the base’s perimeter, with assessments suggesting that the drones were launched by Iranian-backed paramilitary forces in Iraq.

U.S. Forces in Northern Iraq, for the second night in a row, shot down an unknown drone heading in the direction of the U.S. General Consulate in Erbil, believed to have likely been launched by Iranian-backed paramilitaries in Iraq. Earlier tonight, several additional drones were downed approaching U.S. Al-Asad Airbase in Western Iraq.

Syria -

Syrian Observatory for Human Rights: A civilian woman was killed after a drone, possibly launched from Iran, hit a house in Tartus, western Syria.

Kan News, citing a source close to the Syrian regime: Syria does not oppose intercepting Iranian missiles and drones in Syrian airspace

Expect no posts tomorrow thru Sunday. Out in the hills.

I may get a post on the Israel / Iran conflict out tomorrow, but not certain.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Donald Trump torpedoed a joint G7 statement on the Israel-Iran conflict as world leaders met in Canada on Monday, according to senior US officials.

The Telegraph learnt that a draft document was circulated that called for both sides to protect civilians and for tight monitoring of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

That was unacceptable to Mr Trump, who is demanding that Iran is not allowed any uranium enrichment activity and who has been one of the most outspoken of Israel’s supporters. “I can confirm that he did not sign on to the statement,” said a senior US official.

https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2025/06/16/hold-the-line-trump-tells-g-7-to-suck-a-stone-on-israel-iran-group-statement-n3803866

OBSERVATION - Trump upset the apple cart in Canada and left before all the photo ops. However, the reported reason for the early departure has raised serious flags on US intentions towards Iran.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025

Their hopes for a Floyd summer of love are evaporating.

Trumps aggressive 30 day push into sanctuary cities is still on and will likely to provide continued reasons for Antifa and anti-ICE elements to continue attacks.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

Police find a PIPE B-MB in the home of an anti-ICE activist Kevin Krebs.
Krebs was ARRESTED at the No Kings ‘protest’ in West Chester PA on June 14th carrying a handgun, knives, and tactical gear.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed in a post earlier that he has ordered the deployment of additional military capabilities to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Area-of-Responsibility, adding that these deployments are intended to enhance our defensive posture in the Middle East.

RELATED -

Additional 5 tankers heading east to Europe overnight.

AWAC enroute to CENTCOM from Okinawa

7 air tankers moving out of Europe towards the Middle East, towing fighters. At least half are F16s

***
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) has raised the Force Protection Condition (FPCON) from Alpha to Bravo for all bases across its Area-of-Responsibility.

***
Aircraft observers are reporting that a WC-135R Constant Phoenix took off overnight from Omaha, home of U.S. Strategic Command, and is now flying unusual orbits over the northern U.S.

This is not routine.

The Constant Phoenix is used to detect nuclear detonations and track radioactive fallout in the atmosphere. It only flies under serious circumstances—like a nuclear test, reactor breach, or suspected atomic strike.

This plane doesn’t fly for fun. It is a nuclear event detector, equipped to sample radioactive particles after nuclear tests or reactor accidents. It exists for one job: confirming nuclear activity.

The U.S. Air Force doesn’t “practice” with a $250M asset during a global war unless there’s a real reason. No drills have been announced. No scheduled exercises include this aircraft.

POLITICAL FRONT –

More turmoil in the DNC as Weinstein, national teachers union president, resigns in the wake of the Hogg removal vote.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump cut his G7 visit short and headed back to Washington last night

Fox News reports that U.S. President Trump has requested that the National Security Council (NSC) be in the Situation Room when he arrives at the White House later tonight from the G7 Summit in Canada.

His refusal to sign the G7 de-escalation statement and comments about imminent action suggest military options might be discussed. However, the meeting could also focus on diplomacy or strategic planning, as no explicit confirmation of military action exists. The exact outcome remains uncertain.

As he was leaving the G7 Summit in Canada earlier tonight to head back to Washington, U.S. President Trump posted on Truth Social,

“Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a “cease fire” between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.”

Trump:
Everyone must evacuate Tehran immediately!

Trump: Iran wants to make a deal. I don’t want to see nuclear weapons in Iran. We are on our way to ensuring that they don’t have nuclear weapons.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 50-70, widely scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched air attacks on Ukraine overnight — Kyiv was the main target. In total 472 assets were used.

In total, 428 aerial threats were neutralized:
- 239 Shahed drones shot down, 163 jammed
- 2 Kinzhal, 15 Kh-101, 8 Kh-59/69, 1 Kh-31P missiles downed or lost

Last night and early this morning, as the world is distracted by the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, Russia launched one of its largest and deadliest missile and drone attacks in months against the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, primarily targeting residential homes and civilian structures throughout the city. As a result of the attack, at least 14 civilians, including an American, were killed, while over a hundred others were injured, many by Shahed-type drones developed and jointly produced by Russia and Iran.

Several fires burn and smoke rises tonight across the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, following a large-scale missile and drone attack by Russia.
At least 14 people killed, 55 wounded as result of Russian combined drones and missiles attack in Kyiv. Preliminary ballistic missile directly hit and collapsed residential high-rise in Solomiansky district

Russian losses per 17/06/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff

+1060
+1 tank
+3 AFVs
+20 artillery
+1 MLRS

Summary —

Serious pickup of strategic attacks on Kyiv via rockets and drones.

Things are relatively stagnant on the fronts, with moderately high Russia losses and no significant advances.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Gaza continues to be hammered

- Iranian missile strikes in Northern and Central Israel. Relatively few injuries

- Iran continues calls for mediation help to stop the Israeli onslaught.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Apart from continued advances in Gaza by the IDF, the focus is on the fight with Iran covered more below.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025

Rumint. Israel should prepare for possibility of Iran carrying out a nuclear test, says defense analyst Ron Ben-Yishai

- - - Iranian missile strikes - - - -

Overnight, Israeli media reports Iran’s missile batch ranged between 20 and 30 missiles.

The decline in missiles launched from Iran:

June 13 - 200 missiles
June 14 - 100 missiles
June 15 - 75 missiles
June 16 - 30 missiles

In the recent hours, fewer than 10 ballistic missiles were launched from Iran at Israel overnight, according to IDF assessments.

The missiles came in three overnight attacks just after midnight, at 3:30 a.m., and 4:30 a.m.
There were no reports of impacts in urban areas or injuries.

Iranian media hyped up a significant attack last night, however, it was one of the smallest since Friday.

Israeli officials say Iran’s drop in ballistic missile launches over the past 24 hours is due to ongoing Israeli Air Force strikes. They estimate 40% of IRGC missile launchers have been destroyed so far.

***
Iranian ballistic missiles have reportedly struck at least two sites within the Israeli Defense Forces’ military intelligence (AMAN) complex in Herzliya.

***
Israel’s leaders had prepared for approximately 5,000 civilian casualties in a full-scale conflict with Iran, yet they have discovered that their adversary is not able to deliver serious damage, according to former senior intelligence officer Miri Eisin.

- - - Israeli air strikes - - - -

MASSIVE explosion in Parchin! Parchin is a military complex located about 30 kilometers southeast of Tehran, Iran. It is known for its role in Iran’s missile and suspected nuclear programs, though Iran denies nuclear weapon activities.

Violent explosions are shaking multiple areas across Shiraz overnight.

Unchallenged attacks by IAF all across Iran.

- - - Other Key News - - - -

Cyber attack reported against banks in Iran. Fars news reports one specifically directed at the Bank Sepah. Fars says that due to Sepah’s involvement in gas stations payment systems there may be disruptions at gas stations.

Massive withdrawals of money by those fleeing Tehran may cause the Iranian banking system to crash.

***
The Israeli army announces the assassination of General Ali Shadmani, the new Iranian Chief of Staff, who was appointed by Ali Khamenei four days ago to succeed Major General Gholamali Rashid, who was assassinated in the opening Israeli raid.
NOTE - Getting the Hezbollah / Hamas treatment. . . . .

***
The Revolutionary Guards published the location of American bases in Saudi Arabia and the region, after President Trump called on Tehran residents to evacuate.

***
Reports of rather unusual movements of the Iranian military naval fleet in the Persian Gulf

***
Former US Central Command Commander Kenneth McKenzie: “I wouldn’t want to be within five kilometers of Fordow at this point.”

***
Prison escape reported in Tehran. Prison break at Dizelabad Prison in Tehran:
Several inmates were killed during riots at the Prison after an Israeli strike on the facility, which also resulted in a number of prisoners escaping! The prisoners escaped are likely enemies of the Auatollah and will form part of the rebellion against the terror regime.

***
China now encouraging Chinese citizens to leave Tel Aviv “as soon as possible”.

The Indian Embassy in Iran is advising all Indian Nationals and Persons of Indian Origin (PIO) to immediately depart and move to a safe location outside of the Iranian capital of Tehran.

***
Civilians continued to flood out of Tehran tonight, as President Trump issued an order to evacuate the city.
The exodus started a few days ago, but recently accelerated as Iranian air defenses fell apart and airstrikes intensified in Tehran.

ATMs in Iran are down following the cyber attack. Pulling of funds out of banks by fleeing Iranians is threatening to cause the collapse of Iran’s banking system.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS

Iran still has thousands of missiles stockpiled, ranging from short-range artillery rockets to long-range ballistic and cruise missiles. But without mobile or fixed launchers, these weapons become little more than museum pieces—powerful, yet inert. Launchers are the vital delivery systems, and Israel is systematically removing them from the equation at a rate that is both rapid and unsustainable for Iran.

Iran’s only conventional means of retaliation—missile fire—depends on the very launchers now being hunted down with surgical precision. Once the number of operational launchers falls below the threshold required to saturate Israel’s multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow), Iran’s remaining missile fire will become largely symbolic, not strategic.

The coming days and weeks may see fewer missile barrages from Iran—not because it doesn’t want to retaliate, but because it increasingly can’t. And when a regime built on the projection of strength is suddenly exposed as weak, history tells us two things can happen: it either collapses inward, or lashes out blindly.

FUTURE OUTLOOK -

The last 24 hours brings some concerns that Iran is rethinking its course.
The IDF’s damage to the missile launchers is dramatic, and in recent days Iran has been reducing the number of missiles it launches at the State of Israel, but not the number of times it launches them.

This may drive Iran to resort to more unconventional attacks. Cyber assault being one. The second resorting to terrorism, maybe even using some of its enriched uranium for a ‘dirty bomb’ scenario. The potential for the US to be targeted will exponentially increase should the US become tactically involved. Domestic terror also a growing threat.

The indicators of US action are in movement, as I warned to watch out for. Trump is basically set his mind on kinetic negotiations at the moment. Iran’s negotiation calls have been inconsistent and clearly an attempt to stall the inevitable.

I would guess that the US plan was to let Israel do much of the dirty work against Iran’s general nuclear program and ballistic missile systems. With clear control of the airspace, US bombers can act freely to deliver the MOPs that were specifically designed to take out a deeply buried facility like Fordow. Cleanup of other buried facilities would be probable as well.

It won’t be pretty for Iran.

Concerning continued Iranian threats. Last night announced ‘massive’ missile attack was little more than a poof. Iran has also threatened US bases in the region, should US attack. This threat still has some teeth as Iran still has short to medium ranged missile systems and drones that may not have been significantly hit during the current fighting as they are not a threat to Israel. Should Iran launch on these bases, it is pretty well assured that it would kick off a limited regional war against Iran.

The second shift in tactics is the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz. Should the unconfirmed reports of naval deployments pan out, this option may be growing in possibility. This is where the second CSG comes into play. Between Israel and USAF assets being brought in, the ground fight is pretty well covered. The CSGs are there to eliminate any naval threats. Much of the Iranian fleet is designed to intercept and capture tankers/freighters with limited capabilities to attack capitol vessels. Under Reagan IIRC, we swatted them pretty well, however, that has been a while ago and things have changed. The Vinson CSG can hold the line until Nimitz arrives within a week. They can do so outside the range of Iranian shore based anti ship weapons systems. Hot rod speed boats won’t fare well against modern naval weaponry.

Below the surface lurk US and Israeli submarines, so far quietly sitting out the chaos ready to unleash their own.

So, the big breath holder is when and where the US will hit Iran. Trump is telegraphing the punch bigly. In part propaganda warning, in part laying out what is to come. Besides the clear threat to hit targets like Fordow, the extent he is threatening Tehran is undefined and may just be a scare tactic. At this stage, there isn’t much left of military value in Tehran. Bases have been hit hard and most of the country’s military leadership decimated.

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