Expect no posts tomorrow thru Sunday. Out in the hills.
I may get a post on the Israel / Iran conflict out tomorrow, but not certain.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Donald Trump torpedoed a joint G7 statement on the Israel-Iran conflict as world leaders met in Canada on Monday, according to senior US officials.
The Telegraph learnt that a draft document was circulated that called for both sides to protect civilians and for tight monitoring of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
That was unacceptable to Mr Trump, who is demanding that Iran is not allowed any uranium enrichment activity and who has been one of the most outspoken of Israel’s supporters. “I can confirm that he did not sign on to the statement,” said a senior US official.
OBSERVATION - Trump upset the apple cart in Canada and left before all the photo ops. However, the reported reason for the early departure has raised serious flags on US intentions towards Iran.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
Things have quieted down significantly in LA and other Antifa supported, anti ICE operations. The “No King” rallies did not provide the angry and destructive demographic Antifa was hoping for to launch the anti-ICE riots nationwide. Still some violence in LA, Portland and Seattle, but its spread to other cities is not catching on.
Their hopes for a Floyd summer of love are evaporating.
Trumps aggressive 30 day push into sanctuary cities is still on and will likely to provide continued reasons for Antifa and anti-ICE elements to continue attacks.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
Police find a PIPE B-MB in the home of an anti-ICE activist Kevin Krebs.
Krebs was ARRESTED at the No Kings ‘protest’ in West Chester PA on June 14th carrying a handgun, knives, and tactical gear.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed in a post earlier that he has ordered the deployment of additional military capabilities to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Area-of-Responsibility, adding that these deployments are intended to enhance our defensive posture in the Middle East.
RELATED -
Additional 5 tankers heading east to Europe overnight.
AWAC enroute to CENTCOM from Okinawa
7 air tankers moving out of Europe towards the Middle East, towing fighters. At least half are F16s
***
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) has raised the Force Protection Condition (FPCON) from Alpha to Bravo for all bases across its Area-of-Responsibility.
***
Aircraft observers are reporting that a WC-135R Constant Phoenix took off overnight from Omaha, home of U.S. Strategic Command, and is now flying unusual orbits over the northern U.S.
This is not routine.
The Constant Phoenix is used to detect nuclear detonations and track radioactive fallout in the atmosphere. It only flies under serious circumstances—like a nuclear test, reactor breach, or suspected atomic strike.
This plane doesn’t fly for fun. It is a nuclear event detector, equipped to sample radioactive particles after nuclear tests or reactor accidents. It exists for one job: confirming nuclear activity.
The U.S. Air Force doesn’t “practice” with a $250M asset during a global war unless there’s a real reason. No drills have been announced. No scheduled exercises include this aircraft.
POLITICAL FRONT –
More turmoil in the DNC as Weinstein, national teachers union president, resigns in the wake of the Hogg removal vote.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump cut his G7 visit short and headed back to Washington last night
Fox News reports that U.S. President Trump has requested that the National Security Council (NSC) be in the Situation Room when he arrives at the White House later tonight from the G7 Summit in Canada.
His refusal to sign the G7 de-escalation statement and comments about imminent action suggest military options might be discussed. However, the meeting could also focus on diplomacy or strategic planning, as no explicit confirmation of military action exists. The exact outcome remains uncertain.
As he was leaving the G7 Summit in Canada earlier tonight to head back to Washington, U.S. President Trump posted on Truth Social,
“Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a “cease fire” between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.”
Trump:
Everyone must evacuate Tehran immediately!
Trump: Iran wants to make a deal. I don’t want to see nuclear weapons in Iran. We are on our way to ensuring that they don’t have nuclear weapons.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 50-70, widely scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched air attacks on Ukraine overnight — Kyiv was the main target. In total 472 assets were used.
In total, 428 aerial threats were neutralized:
- 239 Shahed drones shot down, 163 jammed
- 2 Kinzhal, 15 Kh-101, 8 Kh-59/69, 1 Kh-31P missiles downed or lost
Last night and early this morning, as the world is distracted by the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, Russia launched one of its largest and deadliest missile and drone attacks in months against the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, primarily targeting residential homes and civilian structures throughout the city. As a result of the attack, at least 14 civilians, including an American, were killed, while over a hundred others were injured, many by Shahed-type drones developed and jointly produced by Russia and Iran.
Several fires burn and smoke rises tonight across the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, following a large-scale missile and drone attack by Russia.
At least 14 people killed, 55 wounded as result of Russian combined drones and missiles attack in Kyiv. Preliminary ballistic missile directly hit and collapsed residential high-rise in Solomiansky district
Russian losses per 17/06/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff
+1060
+1 tank
+3 AFVs
+20 artillery
+1 MLRS
Summary —
Serious pickup of strategic attacks on Kyiv via rockets and drones.
Things are relatively stagnant on the fronts, with moderately high Russia losses and no significant advances.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Gaza continues to be hammered
- Iranian missile strikes in Northern and Central Israel. Relatively few injuries
- Iran continues calls for mediation help to stop the Israeli onslaught.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Apart from continued advances in Gaza by the IDF, the focus is on the fight with Iran covered more below.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
PLEASE NOTE - Things have been fast and furious overt here lately and events have been already overcome by other events in many instances. Though I try, there are events I may have noted but failed to report. Highly dynamic and fluid.
Rumint. Israel should prepare for possibility of Iran carrying out a nuclear test, says defense analyst Ron Ben-Yishai
- - - Iranian missile strikes - - - -
Overnight, Israeli media reports Iran’s missile batch ranged between 20 and 30 missiles.
The decline in missiles launched from Iran:
June 13 - 200 missiles
June 14 - 100 missiles
June 15 - 75 missiles
June 16 - 30 missiles
In the recent hours, fewer than 10 ballistic missiles were launched from Iran at Israel overnight, according to IDF assessments.
The missiles came in three overnight attacks just after midnight, at 3:30 a.m., and 4:30 a.m.
There were no reports of impacts in urban areas or injuries.
Iranian media hyped up a significant attack last night, however, it was one of the smallest since Friday.
Israeli officials say Iran’s drop in ballistic missile launches over the past 24 hours is due to ongoing Israeli Air Force strikes. They estimate 40% of IRGC missile launchers have been destroyed so far.
***
Iranian ballistic missiles have reportedly struck at least two sites within the Israeli Defense Forces’ military intelligence (AMAN) complex in Herzliya.
***
Israel’s leaders had prepared for approximately 5,000 civilian casualties in a full-scale conflict with Iran, yet they have discovered that their adversary is not able to deliver serious damage, according to former senior intelligence officer Miri Eisin.
- - - Israeli air strikes - - - -
MASSIVE explosion in Parchin! Parchin is a military complex located about 30 kilometers southeast of Tehran, Iran. It is known for its role in Iran’s missile and suspected nuclear programs, though Iran denies nuclear weapon activities.
Violent explosions are shaking multiple areas across Shiraz overnight.
Unchallenged attacks by IAF all across Iran.
- - - Other Key News - - - -
Cyber attack reported against banks in Iran. Fars news reports one specifically directed at the Bank Sepah. Fars says that due to Sepah’s involvement in gas stations payment systems there may be disruptions at gas stations.
Massive withdrawals of money by those fleeing Tehran may cause the Iranian banking system to crash.
***
The Israeli army announces the assassination of General Ali Shadmani, the new Iranian Chief of Staff, who was appointed by Ali Khamenei four days ago to succeed Major General Gholamali Rashid, who was assassinated in the opening Israeli raid.
NOTE - Getting the Hezbollah / Hamas treatment. . . . .
***
The Revolutionary Guards published the location of American bases in Saudi Arabia and the region, after President Trump called on Tehran residents to evacuate.
***
Reports of rather unusual movements of the Iranian military naval fleet in the Persian Gulf
***
Former US Central Command Commander Kenneth McKenzie: “I wouldn’t want to be within five kilometers of Fordow at this point.”
***
Prison escape reported in Tehran. Prison break at Dizelabad Prison in Tehran:
Several inmates were killed during riots at the Prison after an Israeli strike on the facility, which also resulted in a number of prisoners escaping! The prisoners escaped are likely enemies of the Auatollah and will form part of the rebellion against the terror regime.
***
China now encouraging Chinese citizens to leave Tel Aviv “as soon as possible”.
The Indian Embassy in Iran is advising all Indian Nationals and Persons of Indian Origin (PIO) to immediately depart and move to a safe location outside of the Iranian capital of Tehran.
***
Civilians continued to flood out of Tehran tonight, as President Trump issued an order to evacuate the city.
The exodus started a few days ago, but recently accelerated as Iranian air defenses fell apart and airstrikes intensified in Tehran.
ATMs in Iran are down following the cyber attack. Pulling of funds out of banks by fleeing Iranians is threatening to cause the collapse of Iran’s banking system.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS
Iran still has thousands of missiles stockpiled, ranging from short-range artillery rockets to long-range ballistic and cruise missiles. But without mobile or fixed launchers, these weapons become little more than museum pieces—powerful, yet inert. Launchers are the vital delivery systems, and Israel is systematically removing them from the equation at a rate that is both rapid and unsustainable for Iran.
Iran’s only conventional means of retaliation—missile fire—depends on the very launchers now being hunted down with surgical precision. Once the number of operational launchers falls below the threshold required to saturate Israel’s multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow), Iran’s remaining missile fire will become largely symbolic, not strategic.
The coming days and weeks may see fewer missile barrages from Iran—not because it doesn’t want to retaliate, but because it increasingly can’t. And when a regime built on the projection of strength is suddenly exposed as weak, history tells us two things can happen: it either collapses inward, or lashes out blindly.
FUTURE OUTLOOK -
The last 24 hours brings some concerns that Iran is rethinking its course.
The IDF’s damage to the missile launchers is dramatic, and in recent days Iran has been reducing the number of missiles it launches at the State of Israel, but not the number of times it launches them.
This may drive Iran to resort to more unconventional attacks. Cyber assault being one. The second resorting to terrorism, maybe even using some of its enriched uranium for a ‘dirty bomb’ scenario. The potential for the US to be targeted will exponentially increase should the US become tactically involved. Domestic terror also a growing threat.
The indicators of US action are in movement, as I warned to watch out for. Trump is basically set his mind on kinetic negotiations at the moment. Iran’s negotiation calls have been inconsistent and clearly an attempt to stall the inevitable.
I would guess that the US plan was to let Israel do much of the dirty work against Iran’s general nuclear program and ballistic missile systems. With clear control of the airspace, US bombers can act freely to deliver the MOPs that were specifically designed to take out a deeply buried facility like Fordow. Cleanup of other buried facilities would be probable as well.
It won’t be pretty for Iran.
Concerning continued Iranian threats. Last night announced ‘massive’ missile attack was little more than a poof. Iran has also threatened US bases in the region, should US attack. This threat still has some teeth as Iran still has short to medium ranged missile systems and drones that may not have been significantly hit during the current fighting as they are not a threat to Israel. Should Iran launch on these bases, it is pretty well assured that it would kick off a limited regional war against Iran.
The second shift in tactics is the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz. Should the unconfirmed reports of naval deployments pan out, this option may be growing in possibility. This is where the second CSG comes into play. Between Israel and USAF assets being brought in, the ground fight is pretty well covered. The CSGs are there to eliminate any naval threats. Much of the Iranian fleet is designed to intercept and capture tankers/freighters with limited capabilities to attack capitol vessels. Under Reagan IIRC, we swatted them pretty well, however, that has been a while ago and things have changed. The Vinson CSG can hold the line until Nimitz arrives within a week. They can do so outside the range of Iranian shore based anti ship weapons systems. Hot rod speed boats won’t fare well against modern naval weaponry.
Below the surface lurk US and Israeli submarines, so far quietly sitting out the chaos ready to unleash their own.
So, the big breath holder is when and where the US will hit Iran. Trump is telegraphing the punch bigly. In part propaganda warning, in part laying out what is to come. Besides the clear threat to hit targets like Fordow, the extent he is threatening Tehran is undefined and may just be a scare tactic. At this stage, there isn’t much left of military value in Tehran. Bases have been hit hard and most of the country’s military leadership decimated.
Thanks Godzilla
Thanks - - Keep us posted Godzilla
Thanks for the report. Just WoW!
Back for the rest of the week except for next Friday and Saturday (possibly Sunday)
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
SUPER UW a notorious student group at the University of Washington that was previously suspended for causing over $1 million in damages in an anti-Semitic occupation of a campus building, has escalated its agenda to not only call for violence, but to also teach it.
On June 5, 2025, the group held a “Teach-in” in which they praised terrorist organizations, downplayed atrocities, and advocated for armed violence as a “scientific necessity.”
The hosts also conducted a scripted reading aimed at Israelis: “As for you, the children of pigs, you will have only death, and your demise is just around the corner.” Reportedly, the audience applauded in agreement.
***
Portland (June 21) — Federal agents rushed in to make arrests of Antifa rioters who continue their daily attempted siege of the ICE building. The city has allowed Antifa to build an encampment nearby to recruit rioters.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1936791907385893223?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Antifa and the violent left are digging in on exploiting ICE operations in urban areas while growing supporters from pro-islamic elements festering on US colleges and universities.
ICE protests have dwindled to ANTIFA home base cities. Leftist friendly Washington becoming ground zero for the jihadists.
Latest on the radar are efforts by 50501 to stimulate “No War” protests. These are along the same lines of the recent “no kings” rallies.
Near term, there are no significant triggering events foreseen. ‘No Kings’ failed to provide Antifa with momentum to continue their violence on a national level. Response to bombing Iran doesn’t appear to have triggered much either.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
DHS Issues National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
There are currently no specific credible threats against the homeland
WASHINGTON – Today, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem issued a National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) Bulletin regarding a heightened threat environment across the United States due to the direct involvement of the United States in the ongoing conflict between the nations of Israel and Iran. There are currently no specific credible threats against the homeland.
“It is our duty to keep the nation safe and informed, especially during times of conflict,” said Secretary Kristi Noem. “The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict brings the possibility of increased threat to the homeland in the form of possible cyberattacks, acts of violence, and antisemitic hate crimes.”
This NTAS Bulletin will expire on September 22, 2025. The public should report any suspicious activity or threats of violence to local law enforcement, FBI Field Offices, or a local Fusion Center.
RELATED
Iran also has a long-standing commitment to target U.S. government officials it views as responsible for the death of an Iranian military commander killed in January 2020.
OBSERVATION -
Iran has long threatened asymmetrical attacks against the US and US interests in the event of the US striking it. Iran has made similar threats toward Israel and so far they have not panned out. In this case, biden let in hundreds if not thousands of middle easterners with probable terror affiliations into the country, where they can blend into the existing mob of middle eastern ‘immigrants’. The US is a target rich environment with a lot of soft targets and spread thin intel an law enforcement capabilities. The FBI has said they are monitoring activities, but this is not a guarantee that they will be able to preempt an event.
Keep your heads on a swivel and maintain heightened situational awareness.
***
A gunman wearing a tactical vest and carrying two guns targeted a suburban Detroit church Sunday morning, firing shots into the building’s exterior during a special vacation Bible School service before he was run over by one person and then fatally shot by church security.
Police have not yet publicly identified the suspect. Kelly said he was not aware of the shooter’s identity but said the attacker does not appear to be a member.
OBSERVATION - Confusing info on this attacker. Failure to release info in the past has indicated that the attacker is of a ‘protected class’ - i.e. either islamist or LGBT, liberal etc. Rumors suggest a moslem from nearby enclaves. Other reports of a disgruntled attendee.
Noting this event here until attacker’s ID has been released and verified.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Oil prices are expected to spike today upon threats of closure attempts by Iran of the Straits of Hormuz. Global markets also down due to the same threat.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Two carrier strike groups, the USS Nimitz and USS Vinson, are now in the Middle East
***
US 5th Fleet HQ is based in Al-Juffair, Bahrain.
Ships were no longer seen in port at Al-Juffair earlier this week.
***
The U.S. has positioned five ballistic missile defense-capable guided-missile destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea as Iranian forces launch salvos of ballistic missiles against Israel, a defense official confirmed to USNI News.
Two guided-missile destroyers, based in Rota, Spain — USS Paul Ignatius (DDG-117) and USS Oscar Austin (DDG-79) — entered the Mediterranean, joining three other BMD-capable destroyers in the region, the defense official said. Ship spotters observed Paul Ignatius leaving Rota on Tuesday.
USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51), USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116) and USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) were operating in the Eastern Mediterranean as Monday, according to the USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker. In addition, the U.S. has two guided-missile destroyers operating in the Red Sea — USS Forrest Sherman (DDG-98) and USS Truxtun (DDG-103).
All five destroyers in the Mediterranean can detect and intercept ballistic missiles with Standard Missile 3s. Paul Ignatius, Oscar Austin and Arleigh Burke are part of the Navy’s forward-deployed naval forces based in Rota. The five destroyers in Rota are part of the European Phased Adaptive Approach for ballistic missile defense to defend Europe against Iranian missiles.
***
Not fully confirmed by my view but the United States is reportedly moving B-2 bombers to the Pacific island of Guam, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Saturday. If true, this may be the destination of the the westward moving B2s used for the deception ploy.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats were foaming at the mouth over the B2 strikes. They seemed to be silenced due to clips of 0bama and his record of bombing as well as the billions shipped in cargo planes to Iran.
***
A rumble has been ongoing tha past week between anti-semitic “woke” so called conservatives and followers of Trump’ MAGA program. The woke elements appear to be trying to co-opt the MAGA agenda from Trump over his support towards Israel, claiming it is not ‘America First’.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
The State Department has issued a worldwide security alert for U.S. citizens and interests abroad.
The U.S. State Department has issued security warnings for Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Iraq.
Due to regional events, U.S. government personnel in Türkiye have been cautioned to maintain a low profile and instructed to avoid personal travel to the U.S. Consulate Adana consular district, which comprises Türkiye’s 22 southeastern most provinces. Negative sentiment toward U.S. foreign policy may prompt actions against U.S. or Western interests in Türkiye. In the past, such activities have included demonstrations, calls for boycotts of U.S. businesses, anti-U.S. rhetoric, and graffiti. Large gatherings may result in enhanced police presence, road closures, and traffic disruptions. Any gathering, even those intended to be peaceful, could escalate and turn violent on short notice.
TRUMP Watch –
In a White House address on the evening of June 21, President Donald Trump touted the success of a series of U.S. strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, and warned of even greater attacks to come should Iran choose to retaliate.
“Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor [of terrorism]. Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success,” Trump announced.
As he delivered his White House address, Trump warned Iran not to continue fighting.
“Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier,” the president said.
Trump said there are many targets left in Iran, but the ones that U.S. forces struck on Saturday were the most difficult.
OBSERVATION - Iran misjudged Trump’s resolve on this. Hope they don’t this time.
Remember, Iran attacked us in 1979 and has continued thru today via its puppet proxy groups.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to ongoing Israeli / Iranian conflict
The ongoing Iran conflict is causing a heightened threat environment in the United States. Low-level cyber attacks against U.S. networks by pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely, and cyber actors affiliated with the Iranian government may conduct attacks against U.S. networks.
Illegal Immigration –
Nearly HALF the Iranians caught at the southern border were released into the United States by The Biden Administration. -Fox News
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Iran’s foreign minister headed to Moscow late Sunday night to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the wake of U.S. strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.
The Daily Telegraph reports Abbas Araghchi confirmed Iran “reserves all options to defend its security, its interests, its people…All options are on the table” while applauding Russia as “a friend of Iran.”
His visit to Russia will raise significant concerns over what kind of support Moscow is willing to offer Tehran at this moment, which could include sending defence materials, getting involved directly militarily or throwing diplomatic weight behind Iran, the Telegraph report stated.
But to what extent will the Russians be willing to intervene?
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Following the historic attack on Iranian nuclear sites former Russian President wrote a long thread on X condemning the US military strike.
Medvedev says there are “a number of foreign countries” ready to supply the Iranian regime with nuclear weapons.
OBSERVATION - Who will these nations be?
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 50-70 range, widely scattered rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 352 Shahed-type drones(approximately 160 of them with explosive warhead), 11 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 5 Iskander-K cruise missiles, - Ukrainian Air Forces
Attacks centered mostly on Kyiv and surrounding regions. At least seven people have reportedly been killed and several injured in the overnight attack in the Kyiv region, the interior minister has said.
Russian losses per 23/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1010 men
+1 tank
+5 AFVs
+58 artillery
+2 MLRS
Summary —
Russia maintains an overall high level of drone / missile attacks on Kyiv and Ukraine in general.
On the ground, action doesn’t appear to resemble an organized offensive as announced by Russia. Observers note that Russia does appear to be pulsing its attacks to bring a larger force locally to the front, then pausing to regroup. Very little progress has been made by Russia and in some cases, Ukraine has locally counterattacked and regained territory. The battle sees poorly trained Russian infantry facing the fury of Ukrainian drones.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Ongoing airstrikes across Iran
- Ongoing airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza
- Bodies of at least three murdered hostages recovered over the weekend.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Netanyahu, in an address to the nation on the status of the overall fighting noted that he hasn’t taken his eyes off the efforts in Gaza. Smooth operations against Iran have freed up aircraft to intensify bombing of Gaza targets.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syria hasn’t challenged Israel’s operations that intercept Iranian drones and missiles over its territory.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
See Iraq on rumblings of potential attacks on US elements.
Houthis declare the Red Sea to be closed to shipping.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
U.S. Embassy in Qatar urges all American citizens to shelter in place until further notice, according to Reuters
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
See Iran below. Hezbollah staying to the sidelines and Hamas being chewed up.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
Quick summary of the Operation Midnight Hammer B2 attacks on Iran’s three main nuclear sites — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
US sent a widely reported flight of about 6 B2s westward from the US, even with reports of a refueling pattern that would be expected from fully loaded bombers. Meanwhile, much earlier and with great secrecy, a group of 7 B2s (each with 2 MOPs) linked up with tankers and a fighter escort and flew east.
About the time the westbound bombers reached refueling sites near Hawaii, the strike force was virtually over Iran and executing its attack with great precision.
Six bombers struck Fordow. It appears from post strike satellite photos that there are six very clear and large/deep craters along the ridge line over the centrifuge gallery. The pattern suggests that a double strike was used - the first to do initial penetration, and the second to finish the job. It also appears that the strike locations took advantage of ventilation shafts the further weakened the bedrock.
Analysis by The Institute for Science and International Security: Hi-res satellite images of Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant reveal six penetration holes from U.S. GBU-57 bombs near ventilation shafts, enabling an easier pathway for the MOPS to the deeply buried halls.
Debris visible on mountain slopes also suggests severe damage or destruction of enrichment halls. Tunnel entrances had been filled by Iran beforehand, anticipating an attack.
https://x.com/osint613/status/1936974071113121896?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
The 7th B2 dropped its ordinance on Natanz
A cruise missile submarine supported the attack by firing about 14 tomahawk missiles at Natanz, and Isfahan.
In total, 75 precision munitions were dropped during the operation and 125 US military aircraft participated in it.
US alerted the Gulf countries before the attack on Iran, amid fears of retaliation against American targets in their territories
- - - - Straits of Hormuz - - - -
The Iranian parliament has unanimously reached the decision to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
The British Maritime Transport Authority reported serious disruptions to the GPS system in the Strait of Hormuz.
The countries that heavily rely on oil passing through this strait include:
1. China – largest single importer of oil through the Strait
2.India
3.Japan
4.South Korea
5.Singapore
Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would significantly harm China, one of Iran’s closest allies — the last thing Tehran wants right now.
https://x.com/immeme0/status/1936814227873792289?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
— - - Iranian Attacks on Israel - - -
Iran’s vaunted missile capabilities have been severely degraded. Missile attacks now generally consist of salvos of less than 10, quite often only a few missiles with longer time in between. This makes it easy for Israeli defenses to intercept threatening missiles.
- - - - Israeli Strikes - - - -
IAF continues free range over Iran. They appear to have come up with the formula to nail Iranian missile firing locations. In many instances just before launch, taking out launcher and reload missiles. Fixed missile sites continue to be hammered as well.
Over the weekend, IAF did target some Iranian naval vessels. This action may increase if a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz is attempted.
- - - - Other - - - -
Iran’s Foreign Minister:
There is no point in asking Iran to return to the negotiating table. The door to diplomacy is no longer open.
- - - - Estimated future actions - - - -
Iran’s leadership, both civil and military, are in disarray. The entrance of the US into the fight - so far in a limited manner - has further put Iran into a corner. Iran is a wounded animal and right now the jihadists are still running the show and may soon move towards the apocalyptic.
1 Missile strikes against US bases in the region
2 Attempt to close off the Straits of Hormuz
3 Attempt to seize / attacking shipping in the Persian gulf
4 Activate terror cells in the US (and Europe)
5 Cyber attacks
The US strike ripped open the fact that Iran is very much exposed and should it attempt action against US interests, they better pay attention to Trump’s warning. They didn’t last time.
This includes an attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz. Things have changed significantly since Iran last attempted this. First, note that the US is far more independent than it was in the past. Second, those dependent on oil passage include at the top of the list China - who has been speaking loudly in Iran’s ear and who the mullah’s have been attempting to curry favor from. Second, the big missile threat of Iran has been severely hammered. The threat does remain of shorter ranged missiles and anti-ship systems that Iran has embedded all over the area, much like their medium to long range missiles
Israel will continue to reduce Iranian military assets associated with ballistic missile firing as well as production, associated sites for manufacturing nuclear bomb components and infrastructure. Iran’s missile threat has been reduced to something like what happened to Hezbollah - attempts for a lucky strike from a handful of missiles. As Iran loses more launcher and launch facilities, the missile threat will decrease.
Of final note, there was talk of “regime change’ going around the political circles. The elements of the so called ‘woke’ right claiming we are going down the same road as Iraq and Afghanistan. They are making a false equivalency. Iraq and Afghanistan were boots on the ground from the start operations. Iran OTOH has been just a single, major tactical strike. Any regime change inferred to by Trump contextually refers to the Iranians doing the work, not US ground forces imposing a change. The son of the Shah is trying to organize a resistance element to overthrow the mullahs, the world would be better with the islamists tossed to the curb.
Iraq -
Rumint. American military and intelligence officials have detected signs that Iran-backed militias are preparing to attack U.S. bases in Iraq, and possibly Syria, in retaliation for the U.S. strikes in Iran. But so far the groups have held off, and Iraqi officials are working hard to dissuade militia action, a U.S. official said on Sunday. -NYT
OBSERVATION - If they get froggy, Trump has made it clear that an attack by an Iranian proxy would be considered an attack by Iran itself. Iraq is wisely trying to get them to calm down.