Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
While I agree that expressly prohibiting something should not be considered enough to allow it, it is a bit different in this process.. Since the rules seem to support the process of trying on a first ballot and then repeating until a majority is reached. That it would exclude 40-b from that repeated process on a second ballot from entering any further nominations is questionable... in my opinion anyway.. We will have to just agree to disagree on that, I believe..
BTW.. I know what you mean by the uninformed media.. and I have to say until yesterday I have never even read the rules and it is quite different from what the media is talking about and it is too much energy to go around correcting all the misunderstandings about the rules..
We united in 2008 and 2012 and look what it got us. I know it’s said that 12 million less people voted in 2012. All of them weren’t republicans.
It’s time to destroy the gop. If we have to use the democrats to do it, so be it.
What states will Cruz win that Romney lost?
What states will Ryan win that Romney lost?
What states will Jeb (LOL) win that Romney lost?
What states will Romney win this time that Romney lost last time?
Trump can win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire and Nevada.
The GOPe map is dead. Only a new strategy opens things up. Stick to Karl Rove's amnesty for illegals and wars for the mew world order approach and we're the Whigs.
And there is nothing at all that is preventing the voters from choosing a nominee. All they have to do is provide one candidate with a majority of the delegates.
Except for constant disinformation from the party insiders and the media. Attacks you no doubt approve of.
Funny how there were no such attacks when sure loser McCain was being nominated.
You are on the same page I am. I want it exposed wide open, cleaned up, and those jailed who are a party to it. Add huge fines to the jail time plus sell all their real and personal property at public auction so this crap never is tried again. These SOB’s who are serving their wallet and not us must GO.
Understood. And probably any other year, I wouldn’t be saying what I’m saying. I (we) have withstood the last 7+ years under the current administration.... I feel very strongly that we need a R in the White House now. So I’m a little strong on my “we need to vote R” this year. But you’re absolutely correct, we can all choose for whom we vote, and whether or not we vote. Thanks for the civil dialogue.
I also believe this will happen. So I believe we should ALL be wooing Bernie voters, every chance we get. We need to be educating them now by telling them, over and over again:
"The Establishment is going to steal the election from Bernie, because the system is rigged. Once Bernie is out, the only person who can and will take on the Establishment is Donald Trump. You should get on the Trump Train."
Cruz can’t; stop living in a dream world of your own making.
True words
clap...clap...clap....clap....
Logic is not our strong suit
This asinine position, totally at odds with the purpose and promise of this formerly great website is it for me.
I’m outta here for good. It was really great while it lasted, but I’m not on board for the transition to statism or cultism.
Don’t let the door hit you in the way out.
L
Anybody that is faced with a circular firing squad daily and wanting to stop Islamic immigration and build a wall, etc...had BETTER have an ego.
He sure as hell is...Can’t stand this con job.
” At least Rubio was born in the US.”***
The most important aspect of the NBC quality is being reared by citizen parents and absorbing the national character, mores, and values. Neither Cruz nor Rubio have this upbringing. Cruz’s father was an anti-Batista Cuban, as was Fidel Castro. Was he pro Castro while rearing Ted? We don’t know either way for certain. (Don’t tell me you do cuz you don’t for certain.)
There is a wisdom in the Founder’s NBC requirement. We ignore that wisdom to our peril. No single individual is worth turning our backs on the Constitution for. Even one who self-touts himself as a Constitutional Conservative. (An oxymoron, if ever there was one, in Cruz’s case.)
*** Rubio is spot on with the decision in USSC Wong Kim ARC. “Born in the US to Legal Resident Aliens.” Rubio is a born citizen by virtue of the 14th Amendment, but most definitely not what the Founders envisioned as a desirable Presidential candidate or would consider a NBC. He, like Cruz, is EXACTLY who the Founders wished to exclude from the Presidency. Don’t try to tell me you’re smarter than the collective Founders. You aren’t, and neither am I.
Excellent post
We are going to have a democrat regardless. Since its highly unlikely that cruz and trump voters will cross lines to support the nominee. And there has been so much hatred from the Trump team that Pissed Cruz supporters off so bad they might stay home and watch TV than vote for trump. And Trump Supporters are cult like and wont vote for Cruz. So, there you have it.
But its funny that everytime a Clinton runs for POTUS there comes a millionaire who splits the GOP ticket. Maybe The Donald will get some sweetheart tax break and turn the state of Iowa into one massive casino.
both sides are so corrupt, Dems, republicans, no difference.
To hell with voters they think.
DK has a lot of good stuff to consider in his post but if I may allow me to answer your question more simply. You asked:
“Ok, you’re saying Kasich is not mathematically eliminated? Or Rubio? Carson? Bush? Paul? Fiorina? Huckabee?”
There are two ways one can speak of “mathematical elimination” here.
1. One is “mathematically eliminated” when one reaches a point where it is impossible for oneself to reach 1237 bound delegates BEFORE the convention. All those you mention fall into this category, and presumably Cruz will as well after the 19th (or maybe the 26th).
2. One is “mathematically eliminated” when, AT the Comvention, one does not reach 1237 (or more) votes from the delegates there at either the first, second, third etc ballots.
What DK is describing is #2, basically. And that’s really how one is nominated, not by a plurality of delegates before the convention but a majority of delegate votes at the convention. It’s just been in recent years there’s been a candidate who’s gone into the convention already with a majority of delegates bound to vote for him. But this isn’t required to gain the nomination what’s actually required is that a candidate actually does get a majority of votes AT the convention.
So really #1 is a red herring. That’s not how this race should be viewed.
This entire issue is muddied by the misconception that “whoever gets the most votes wins”. No it’s “whoever gets the majority of delegate votes at the convention” wins. If Trump simply secures more than 1237 delegates to vote for him at the convention (as every other candidate has done before the convention they secured a majority of the delegates beforehand) this whole issue goes away.
If no one has a majority of bound delegates before the convention then a second vote is required.
That’s just the way it is. At least for now. If this should change then the delegates seated on the rules committee should be influenced to change it. Otherwise we are really just advocating an anarchistic way of nominating if we are just going to ignore rules (instead of trying to change them) when they don’t suit us.
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