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Straightforward mathematical path to elimination for Cruz v Trump

Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson

Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.

If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:

Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.

Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.

Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.

It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: New York; US: Ohio; US: Texas; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2016election; cruz; delegatemath; delegates; election2016; elections; johnkasich; newyork; ohio; tedcruz; texas; trump
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To: DoughtyOne
Seeking an open convention, is tantamount to handing the nation’s future over to people who have openly expressed a desire to see Hillary elected rather than Trump.

Do you not understand the other side's point of view? Is it possible that we are honest and not flacks being paid?

Supporting the nomination of Trump is tantamount to handing the general election to Hilary. His poll numbers and his personality and his qualifications mean he will never win.

We see the insistence on Trump as an invitation for Hilary to win.

It works both ways. One of us is wrong. We will fight it out and time will tell.

421 posted on 04/08/2016 8:19:20 AM PDT by SoothingDave
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To: DoughtyOne

At the latest Cruz will be a spoiler by April 26th. At that point Trump starts calling him a spoiler and beating the drum for Cruz to get out. Most people like to think their vote counts so I would look for Cruz’s campaign to begin to crumble at that point. People like to vote for a winner.


422 posted on 04/08/2016 8:33:28 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: SoothingDave

Ted Cruz hasn’t got one single line on his resume that qualifies him to be anything more a laughing stock on the issue of the job he wants to hold.

Moe Howard would be just as qualified.

Curly, Larry? Could be.

You folks can’t even be honest with yourselves, much less others.


423 posted on 04/08/2016 8:47:41 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

I think you’re on to something there.


424 posted on 04/08/2016 8:48:17 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: DoughtyOne

Manaforte seems pretty certain Trump can get to 1237 by June 7th. He is a sharp guy so who am I to argue. I think he thinks Cruz is going to start to crumble by months end also.


425 posted on 04/08/2016 9:46:22 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: mtrott

“How is Trump going to convince “little Marco” to go with him?”
Money.


426 posted on 04/08/2016 9:46:52 AM PDT by WENDLE (I guess)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

For all the talk of Trump’s supposed failures of late, it’s funny to watch them miss the fact that Ted will be numerically eliminated on 04/19/2016.

Nope, instead they talk about Trump’s decline.

AS IF!

The guy is going to obliterate Ted on 04/19 and 04/26.

Ted will be nothing but a greasy spot with a puddle.


427 posted on 04/08/2016 9:49:46 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Ted is the invisible man. When you consider his qualifications, he fades away. Look through Ted.)
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To: DoughtyOne

No doubt Ted will continue to hang around like an unwanted cat after April 26th. But if he’s not winning and cannot get to 1237 his ship will be taking on water pretty fast. We all know Trump will be out there calling for him to GTFO. And that guy Montaforte and his team will be telling the delegates not to be suckers and dump Ted for a winner.


428 posted on 04/08/2016 11:27:51 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: SoothingDave

That is your opinion backed by liberal media fake polls.


429 posted on 04/08/2016 12:00:59 PM PDT by Lumper20 (Lyin Ted lies more then Hillary)
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To: DoughtyOne

Exactly. Cruz is a BS artist. He lies like his father lies about his fighting in Cuba. The old man did zip.


430 posted on 04/08/2016 12:02:35 PM PDT by Lumper20 (Lyin Ted lies more then Hillary)
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To: Lumper20

The man is an empty vessel.

He has not one single accomplishment qualification to be president.


431 posted on 04/08/2016 12:04:18 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Ted is the invisible man. When you consider his qualifications, he fades away. Look through Ted.)
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To: DoughtyOne

Cruz can’t get there numerically.

He’s out, but is acting As the water boy for the GOPe.


He needs to be actually asked this. If only we had a media.


432 posted on 04/08/2016 12:04:57 PM PDT by Yaelle
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To: Yaelle

That’s okay, because on forums across this nation, people are beginning the process of dismissing Cruz.

He’s done.

The legend in his own mind, has surpassed his time.

15 minutes 57 seconds and counting...


433 posted on 04/08/2016 12:07:08 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Ted is the invisible man. When you consider his qualifications, he fades away. Look through Ted.)
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To: BagCamAddict

Thanks for your post. I hate it but it was very informative.


434 posted on 04/08/2016 12:08:47 PM PDT by Yaelle
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To: DoughtyOne

Good summary of Cruz. He also has never created one job or met one payroll. Cruz knows zip about econ and finance. He does what Goldman Sachs and the others who pay the most to vote tell him to do.


435 posted on 04/08/2016 12:11:27 PM PDT by Lumper20 (Lyin Ted lies more then Hillary)
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To: lodi90

. Kasich is 63 years old. This is his last rodeo.


Um. Maybe you shouldn’t have said “rodeo” when his best friend used to walk around in assless chaps. Bad image for mailman’s boy.


436 posted on 04/08/2016 12:19:01 PM PDT by Yaelle
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To: Lumper20
Exactly!



   
        Cruznoids...

          Careful folks, they were around here a minute ago...
437 posted on 04/08/2016 12:23:23 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Ted is the invisible man. When you consider his qualifications, he fades away. Look through Ted.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Good Lrd. If it were Hillary vs. Kasich we would all start wondering if we will ever have a heterosexual president again.


438 posted on 04/08/2016 12:26:08 PM PDT by Yaelle
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To: Lumper20

It’s an establishment cabal. Trump is a threat to all of them. I want this whole sewer exposed.


439 posted on 04/08/2016 12:29:16 PM PDT by Yaelle
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To: SoothingDave

No! Trump’s failure to clinch the nomination is not a testimony how bad a candidate he is. It is a testimony to how stubborn and determined the GOPe is in opposing an outsider who declared up front that he would not be bought, and who was therefore persona non grata to win this rigged nomination process.

If the process were not rigged, Trump’s overwhelming front runner position would by now have earned him presumptive nominee status, and the GOPe would have begun the process of encouraging the weaker candidates to read the writing on the wall, to begin rallying around the front runner in preparation for the general election.

By now, as the presumptive nominee, Trump should be benefiting from the party apparatus instead of meeting it’s resistance at every turn. The party has lost its way, and forgotten it’s reason for existing. Instead of embracing a candidate with the proven ability to rally enthusiasm within the party, and draw independants and crossovers in numbers not seen in decades, the GOPe is desperately clinging to the establishment good old boy network of donor class K street globalist influence peddlers, and pushing the pre ordained candidates who have demonstrated a willingness to be bought.

The minute Trump declared that he would not take their campaign contributions, he became public enemy number one - that’s why his path to 1237 has been fraught with difficulties.

That is exactly why it is so important that we elect him president.

Go Trump!


440 posted on 04/08/2016 12:56:03 PM PDT by enumerated
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