Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
Brilliant observation!!!!!
really.
Trump had wisconsin in the bag until he wantonly alienated Walker.
My solution is for Trump to stumble over the 1237 and have Cruz win the VP slot ON HIS OWN with his loyal delegates.
Trump would not get to pick the VP. But he could pick fatso as his AG as a consolation prize to his ego.
How big of you.
And the GOPe will lose either the House or the senate and maybe both.
They do not care Jim. Like Trump said, they are doing this because they dont like the thought of losing their cabal.
And to think that Cruz railed against that very thing! That is what has be miffed.
The rules are the rules. A candidate needs the majority of delegates.
What happens if there are 5 guys in the election and the top has 22% of the vote? Should he automatically get the nomination cause he has more than anyone else, but not a majority?
Jim, nobody is truly mathematically eliminated until the delegates vote at the Convention.
Now, in the event someone were to amass a sufficient number of delegates to ensure a first ballot victory, it would be fair to say that the other candidates have been mathematically eliminated, but short of that, it’s not really true.
If it were a fact that anyone who doesn’t reach 1237 pledged delegates is mathematically eliminated, then the odds are that the Republicans will not be mathematically able to field a candidate in November, since they all will have been mathematically eliminated.
Just my two cents.
I agree with you 100%. Cruz lost and should step aside.
Here’s where we part on our outcome scenario.
I’m backing a man who’s got a possibility of getting the necessary amount needed.
You on the other hand are backing a man who can only get the number of delegates needed by back room deals (even if legal) and a convention in turmoil.
Trump supporters have stayed with him from the beginning through every stumble and they see Trump as their ONLY hope. There is no way in h#ll Trump delegates will jump ship. And these delegates will be on TV front and center through all the convention knowing thousands are outside making sure they are there for the man voters have selected.
Without a doubt the number of American’s watching will probably blow our mind. LOL
often in the 19th century. Including lincoln.
No, from his perspective there will never be a President Trump. The worst that will happen is nominee Trump will lose in such a laughable manner that he takes down the GOP Congressmen running down ticket. We lose the Senate and maybe the House, too.
All because of the insistence on running an unqualified candidate with high unfavorable ratings and no conservative instincts or history.
That's the worst case.
Agreed, this is going to Cleveland.
No chance. Either Trump gets 1237 or he does a deal with Kasich before the convention. Kasich is 63 years old. This is his last rodeo. He won’t pass up a sure VP slot on the ticket. Kasich clearly is flying solo and not taking orders from the GOPe. Sorry, but it is what is. Cruz isn’t getting the nom.
They can be mathematically eliminated from winning on the first ballot way before the convention.
Kasich already is. Cruz will be later this month.
That’s because Trump was successful, early on, in bamboozling people into believing he’s conservative. Cruz got the backing available. Remember, the establishment is backing Cruz; Cruz isn’t backing the establishment.
Other than the party in the various states, who do you think should be making the rules about how to select delegates to the national convention?
He’s dead, Jim. Cruz won’t get a delegate in NY, NJ or WV. It’s over already.
Well Cruz sounds pretty presumptuous if he actually thinks so.
Tangling with Hillary will be a great gift to Donald. Notice how he’s been holding off on that.
And Walker got a huge payback from Cruz when Cruz picked up the tab on Walker’s campaign debt. What a scam. Cruz would have done much worse in WI if he hadn’t been able to drop into the well oiled republican establishment machine. So much for “the only principled candidate in the race” Ted “A Time For Truth” Cruz.
I’d like to return my copy of the book for a refund.
No Jim, I think it’s mathematically more complicated than that. I think it’s more likely an exponential equation, where at some point the odds become prohibitive.
Imagine guys flipping coins. They will flip until one guy gets 40 heads. If at some point we get to a situation where one guy has 30 heads, and the other has 20, the guy with 30 would be reasonably expected to reach 40 in 20 more flips, assuming an honest coin. The guy with 20 would need 20 out of 20 to reach 40 in the time the other would be expected to reach 40.
The chance of the second guy running the table by flipping 20 straight heads is 1/2 to the 20th power—virtually no chance.
See where I’m coming from? Under your approach, you would conclude that in the coin example the guy with 20 only has 1/2 the chance of the guy with 30, since he only needs twice as many heads as the other.
Ain’t so.
In the real world of elections, it is even more complicated to figure, but trust me, the odds against Cruz entering the convention with 1237 is prohibitive in the extreme.
Let me know if this makes sense to you.
It’s really simple math. Cruz will probably not reach 1237. If he does somehow reach 1237 and try’s to claim the nomination, how will he unify the party? Same question for Trump. how would he unify the party. If the GOPe forces Trump and Cruz out and they “select” the nominee, in my view we have just lost the election.
Yours is the first post in this thread that mentions "stealing"
Not the topic at all here
Project much ?
Yours is the first post in this thread that mentions "stealing"
Not the topic at all here
Project much ?
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