Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
most of the unbound are party people, its been that way for a long time. Means they have their hands out...
I’ve already stated that Cruz has lost it fair and square and should step aside for the sake of the country. If his continued efforts at thievery split and destroy the party, we’ll be saddled by Hillary or burned by Bernie.
If both fail to get 1237, then consider that the outcome of the convention will be quite handicapped with the nominee garnishing 1238 or a bit more votes.
The best outcome for having significant momentum from convention to election is a significant alignment generated such that the nominee goes out with, say 1600, 1800, 2000 votes.
You think Trump can manage that? I think Cruz can.
I would not protest. however, Trump wont be parted with his money....
If you’re predicting he won’t, that’s the best news I’ve heard.
I agree with your analysis. You nailed it.
Cruz is essentially running as the anti-Trump at this point.
Trump could stand to cool down with this “lyin’ Ted” stuff. We know, we know. But railing too much at your accuser ironically gives him mindshare.
Trump got a big payback from Walker.
I don’t consider someone who can’t get the 1237, trying to play the spoiler for the GOPe to be playing on our team.
Fronting for the GOPe to throw this into a Convention floor fight, might just as well be Paul Ryan or Reince Priebus doing it.
That is what I saw happen here in Nashville on the 2nd of the month. At 10 AM last Saturday the TN Rep party did some delegate assigning. Many complained as we know a number were never Trump supporters. After the 2nd vote they are not bound to support Trump.
This problem goes away with an elected Trump/Cruz ticket.
In a sane world, if every candidate but one is mathematically eliminated (which is likely to happen by the end of this month) then the one left standing is the winner.
Thanks!
They are not stolen and this is absolutely nothing new. Bottom line is where you can finding delegates to vote for you after the first round, or unbound who can vote for you on the first, and maybe vote the way you want on rules. This is why Trump just hired the new guy because this was not being done. Trump accused Cruz of stealing in LA - not so but it is a pretty safe bet not many Rubio delegates will go with Trump. If Trump continues with his collapse it is remotely possible Cruz could win 1237. If no one wins 1237 Cruz will win on the second round with Rubio and Kasich delegates. The blame is on Trump for his trashing of the other candidates, media and other conservatives. As Sykes said it was “weapon-grade stupid” for Trump to bash Walker.
Appreciate the post, Jim.
Have you or anyone else had confirmation on the Ohio primary rules?
There was a post during that primary that said if Kasich withdraws, his delegates are automatically awarded to the 2nd place finisher, which is Donald Trump. Perhaps that is the sole reason he is staying in?
From Cruz’s point of view, nothing worse could happen to the USA than for it to get a President Trump.
Ted could be a player in the scene to the good for years to come, but his attitude seems wrong to me to be President. Not as a Dominionist so devout that it even crosses theological lines into the Mormon belief system. That is a troubled, confused system at best with a lot of just plain wrong stuff in it. But they both believe in a kind of theocratic right. That never worked in a Christian context; that only dumbed down the church while whitewashing the state.
My question is.. and I have not found an answer yet.. has anyone ever come within 5 or 10 percent of reaching the delegate majority and not be given the nomination when it goes to a second ballot?
It's not an ideal situation, but Trump is going to have to make a deal with the GOPe - even if he's over 1237.
The closer this gets to a nuclear confrontation, it has all the makings of a classic negotiation: If Trump gets ripped off & runs 3rd party, he won't be elected. But if Trump runs 3rd party, the GOPe is eviscerated.
It can all be settled if Trump takes on a GOPe lackey, and the GOPe add some conditions with which they think they can control Trump. Neither side gets **all** that they want in a perfect world, but each gets a piece of what they really want.
There is a great misconception that winning "delegates" in a primary means that you get to personally name a person to be your delegate and that you would, of course, pick a loyalist who would never desert you even if there were 100 rounds of voting.
What needs to be understood is that each state is different. And that the process whereby candidates win "delegates" and the process whereby actual human beings are elected/selected/appointed to be delegates to the convention are two different things.
Trump has found this out late in the game and is trying to catch up now.
When he won "delegates" in any given state, what he won in many states was nothing more than a vote from a delegate on the first ballot. After the first (or second, or third, it varies by state) ballot delegates are under no obligation to vote as they are bound based on election results. How could they be? If all delegates were always bound forever, then in this sort of situation you could never get to one candidate with a majority.
None of this is "stealing." It is understanding the rules and making use of relationships formed with people in the various states over time.
So, Trump, like any other candidate will get what he earned in the primaries. Votes on the first ballot. If no candidate has a majority, then the delegates will have to decide in subsequent votes who they can agree upon is acceptable to a majority of them.
All very rational and no "stealing" is involved. The people selected/elected as delegates represent the party and they make the decision when the voters have not given any candidate a majority.
GOPe rules...
And you’re down with that!
LMAO
I see, so we’re only anti-GOPe 3.5 years per election cycle.
Then we push for their best outcome will all our might.
Count me out.
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