Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
They will both be eliminated before the convention, Cruz will be eliminated first. That is why Cruz is working so hard at lining up delegates. Brilliant campaign.
494 / 882 = .5600907029478458 * 100 = 56%
Close. Cruz is playing by the ESTABLISHMENT rules and they have each other’s back.
What rules regarding delegate selection is Cruz violating?
Of course there’s the possibility that both Cruz and Trump could be “mathematically eliminated” from reaching 1237 before the convention. In that case, it will be up to the hundreds of “other” delegates (won by Rubio, Kasich, et al.) and unbound delegates to put one of the two over the top. That doesn’t mean Cruz or Trump “stealing” any delegates from the other guy. It’s a matter of all those non-Cruz/non-Trump delegates preferring one of the two over the other.
As Pres. Ford and his GOP henchmen did to Reagan in ‘76.
It’s a primary not a real estate negotiation.
Then it goes to a brokered convention and the voters be damned.
uh,,
Trump is not spending enough on the ground game. To include ads and hiring people like Roger Stone to put him over the top.
The Green Papers show Trump with 759 delegates and Cruz with 514. I think most newser (Trump haters ;-)) have not credited Trump with all of the Missouri delegates that he has won. I believe the MO Secretary of State has now certified their primary election count.
The delegate count is halfway down the webpage.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/
Cruz is likely to be mathematically eliminated by the end of this month from getting to 1,237.
Yup. Typo. Thanks.
Looks like 769 remaining delegates*. Cruz needs 720 of them to win. That leaves him a “margin” of only 49 delegates.
After 4/19, it’s over for Cruz.
* source reference for remaining delegates
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html
hes doing very well so far, in the lead and on track to get he nomination.
They are not stolen. It is the second part of campaigning, is building support, so when delegates are released (rules vary per state) you pick them up. They system is geared so that if there is not a clear popular winner, it goes to rig strongest campaign. There is no such thing as stolen delegates. You don’t hear Trumpsters complaining about winner tak all states do you? Wouldn’t it be more fair if they were given out proportional? Every state has its own rules, how delegates are given out and when they are released. If Trump loses delegates after the first vote that is his own fault.
You have to factor in the other delegates - the Rubio, K. Etc. - Jim
The first round may result in no winner, so second round, some delegates will move. What portion go Trump. What portion go Cruz.
Kaisich and Rubio are out but potential King makers.
So neither Trump or Cruz can be mathematically eliminated at fhis stage. They are both in he final round.
Wonderful analyses. My sources are telling me that Trump will make a deal with Rubio for VP and blow the lid off this . Cruz and Trump animosity is too great for reconciliation. But if We ( Trump) don’t make a deal, the oligarchy will steal this from the people. It will be the end of the party. Rubio is a bad sweater and of dominutive stature but “he was our future”. The VP only has to go to the Senate on a few occasions. Rubio has practiced that to perfection. He might learn something from Trump. He has 145 delegates and that is just enough to get him a job, which he desperately needs.
Ok - as I said, I don’t know how it works, but it still sounds odd.
If a delegate is bound on the first ballot it does not matter. However, the gameplay is who is sent as that bound delegate. Is it someone who supports Trump as a Trump delegate or a Cruz or GOPe delegate sent as a Trump delegate. If the latter then on the second and subsequent ballots that person votes for Cruz or if a party regular for whomever the party says to vote. That is why it is critical for the GOPe to keep Trump from getting a majority of the delegates. They know Cruz will fail to get the required number for the first ballot.
Though I’m sure some delegates can be bought I’m also sure most cannot.
These delegates are people very much like all of us. The majority are just folks who get involved because they live their country and despise democrats.
From getting to 1237 before the convention, that is. At the convention, he could get to 1237, if Trump has not gotten there either.
Of course the answer will be no, that is why he is focusing on a contested convention rather than expanding his current base. The fact is, the American electorate has voted against Cruz more than they have voted against Trump and so for Cruz to stay in means that it is his arrogant political ego that he serves first and foremost, not the American electorate.
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