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Straightforward mathematical path to elimination for Cruz v Trump

Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson

Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.

If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:

Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.

Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.

Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.

It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: New York; US: Ohio; US: Texas; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2016election; cruz; delegatemath; delegates; election2016; elections; johnkasich; newyork; ohio; tedcruz; texas; trump
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To: fooman

Trump has never held office. Not even mayor.
*******************************************

And Ted is a US Senator ....when was the last time he showed up for work? He might hold an office, but he certainly isn’t doing what he’s being paid to do.

The taxpayers are paying him a salary to show up for work and represent them....EVERY DAY. Nope, Ted is doing his own thing, traveling all over this country on donors money, money he will owe favors to. But, I bet you, he is cashing every paycheck like he’s doing his job in DC....when he is NOT!


341 posted on 04/07/2016 7:35:07 PM PDT by Ms Mable
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To: freespirit2012
-- Do you think Trump will be able to overcome the GOP establishment working against him and still beat Hillary? --

Yes, hypothetically of course. The GOP still has plenty of tricks available to deny him the nomination.

342 posted on 04/07/2016 7:35:19 PM PDT by Cboldt
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To: freespirit2012

sure it does. I read it. It pertains to placing someone into nomination on ANY ballot to infinity and beyond.

An if I am wrong , Trump and Cruz can fire Ryan ( who currently runs the joint) and make the rule say anything they want.

Trump and cruz could make a rule that has daffy duck run the convention, which is fine by me.


343 posted on 04/07/2016 7:36:28 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: Ms Mable

CRuz stood up for the congressional spending authority and the heller decision.

notwithstanding his flaw on corker and tpa.


344 posted on 04/07/2016 7:37:54 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: Jim Robinson
I’ve already stated that Cruz has lost it fair and square and should step aside for the sake of the country. If his continued efforts at thievery split and destroy the party, we’ll be saddled by Hillary or burned by Bernie.

Exactly right. It's already gone too far, probably.

Continued efforts. Thievery. Split. Destroy Party. Ted Cruz, the GOPe, the Establishment at large, the Mass Media, and the Left; what a nice big happy Trump-hating, Trump-supporter-hating, corruption-preserving family, all lined up against the one candidate who wants to breakup the DC cartel and lead the country into a new era of prosperity, accountability, and integrity.

Everyone else just wants to go along to get along, and that's the crowd Ted Cruz is running with now. Even if Cruz could get elected with his ridiculously narrow demographic appeal, he'd never turn against the GOPe backers who he is now beholden to.

If Ted Cruz is the nominee, win or lose, the DC status quo STAYS, just like it would with Hillary. The corruption STAYS. The GOPe power structure STAYS. The payback to donors STAYS. TPA, TPP, Common Core, 0bamacare, and their ilk all STAY. And nothing changes...

345 posted on 04/07/2016 7:38:37 PM PDT by sargon ("No king but Christ!")
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To: fooman

Never said Trump is perfect. I am saying he thinks like a business man.
Cruz is far from perfect and he will have so many pay backs that he’ll put Politicians in deal making situations as in the past and nothing changes. He has absolutely no experience being in the circle of powerful business men who have made deals with people all over the world.


346 posted on 04/07/2016 7:39:29 PM PDT by STARLIT ((Tea Partier))
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To: sargon

go along to get along? Cruz wore pee bag to take on mitch.

Cruz has flaws (corker, tpa) but come on.


347 posted on 04/07/2016 7:43:09 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: fooman
What I read today, which is in the rules apparently, is that in order for a candidate to be placed in nomination he must have a majority of the delegates in 8 states... However the rules do not say that they must have a majority of delegates in the primaries and caucuses but rather just have a majority of the delegates in 8 states.

so if on the 3rd ballot they think Kasich has the best chance at winning against Hillary and 8 states have a majority that believe that, at that point they sign their majority and he gets nominated...
348 posted on 04/07/2016 7:44:35 PM PDT by freespirit2012
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To: VerySadAmerican
This may blow up in their faces.

And they don't care.

People who are stubbornly standing on principal are putting their own principals above what is needed for America. If people who are supposedly Conservative fail to unite behind our nominee, whoever it is, I will consider them to be anti-American, as they will guarantee Hillary or Sanders in November.

We must unite, once a nominee is identified. #NeverHillary. #NeverSanders.

349 posted on 04/07/2016 7:44:43 PM PDT by BagCamAddict (#NeverHillary)
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To: fooman

Grasshopper :-), Cruz is full of flaws, IMO.

Don’t you think it would be a good idea for him to be doing the job he’s now receiving and cashing checks for? He should have compleTED his senate time and “then” moved onto whatever...

Taxpayers should not be paying him to run for the presidential nomination, when he’s running all over the country for himself.


350 posted on 04/07/2016 7:47:28 PM PDT by Ms Mable
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To: NIKK; All

I just want to win.

Cruz and Trump are both proven anti-establishment.

I dont care about Heidi’s hurt feelings and I dont care if Trump’s ego is bruised because he could not take out cruz.

I dont if these two hate each other ( trump actually respects cruz)

Want to see the *appearance* of the nationalist camp and conservative/libertarian camp run on the ‘R’ ballot so we all turn out and vote in NOV and avoid the McCain/Mittens scenario.


351 posted on 04/07/2016 7:48:08 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: fooman
Cruz made a lot of heat, and tried to take them on, but it got nowhere, did nothing, accomplished precisely zero.

I liked that he tried, don't get me wrong, but I prefer someone who actually knows how to get things done.

It's called executive experience (not senatorial experience) for a reason.

352 posted on 04/07/2016 7:48:49 PM PDT by Lakeshark (One time Cruz supporter who now prefers Trump. Yes, there are good reasons.)
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To: freespirit2012

K starts out with ohio.

‘States’ are defined to include territories..

Cruz got Guam , for example.


353 posted on 04/07/2016 7:49:57 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: corbe

Cruz is supposed to be a great leader.

Yet, he hasn’t lead one conservative bill through the senate with passage.
Not one.

Cruzbots are more impressed by chest pounding and grand standing
than actually demanding results.


354 posted on 04/07/2016 8:02:51 PM PDT by tennmountainman ("Prophet Mountainman" Predicter Of All Things RINO...for a small pittance)
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To: fooman

The point is,that Kasich just needs a majority of the delegates in eight states, not a majority of the delegates in the primaries or caucuses in eight states. So, if any time after the first ballot, eight states say by a majority of their delegates that Kasich should be the nominee then the establishment wins... and he is a nominee.


355 posted on 04/07/2016 8:02:54 PM PDT by freespirit2012
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To: Jim Robinson

Here are some adjustments I would make. Looking at BOUND delegates, there are only 706 left in remaining primaries. Some like Pennsylvania don’t bind most of their delegates on any convention ballot, so they won’t be available to “lock in” for anyone. (This number be overlooking Colorado, which I think is still in the midst of assigning delegates at state conventions.)

There are apparently 114 unbound delegates in total for the first ballot, who could vote for anyone. So you’re not truly eliminated if you’re only 114 short of 1237. You could still win on the first vote by winning the unbounds’ support. That technically lowers the bound delegates required to win on the first vote from 1237 to 1123.

In addition, 330 delegates have been won by non Trump/Cruz candidates so far. From what I can make out of convention rules, a candidate can “release” their delegates on the first ballot, making them “unbound.” This apparently has been done to make unanimous votes possible for the clear winner in the past. That potentially adds to the unbound delegate total, lowering the amount of bound delegates needed to win on the first ballot to only 793.

So, Cruz would not truly be eliminated from a first ballot win until 430 of the remaining 706 bound delegates left to be assigned go to someone else. In other words, he needs 276 more bound delegates at a minimum to have a chance of winning on the first ballot (assuming he gets the support of 100% of all of the unbound and released delegates).

Cruz can get up to 146 delegates from Indiana, Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota (which appear to be winner-take-all in some form). If he gets all those and then adds on just over half of the delegates from Califonia, Oregon, Washington and New Mexico (which are either winner-take-all by district or proportional), then he would make that minimum threshold to make a first ballot convention win mathematically possible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016


356 posted on 04/07/2016 8:12:11 PM PDT by JediJones (The younger presidential candidate has won the popular vote since '92. Vote younger. Vote Cruz. Win.)
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To: Cboldt
The party is going to do everything posible to deny Trump the nomination

You may have a better fix on Gov. Kasich than I do. If he does remain active after the primary season, my first ballot theory depends on how the new rules for the convention deal with support level necessary to have the name placed in nomination and how delegates bound to a candidate not in nomination are treated. Are they considered (1) unbound and allowed to vote for one of the nominees or will they (2) remain bound to a candidate and not allowed to vote for either nominee. If case 2 look for a second ballot but if case 1, my first ballot prediction holds.

As for the party working to deny Mr. Trump the nomination, they are no longer in control. Combined, Mr. Trump and Senator Cruz have joint control and when one of them becomes the nominee, he will have sole control. Mr. Trump's opponents are certainly trying to deny him the nomination and he is trying with all of his might to deny either of them the nomination. That is as it should be. If a candidate, whoever he is, can not put together a winning effort in the nomination fight, he would not likely be able to put together a winning effort in the general election. I would have to believe either Mr. Trump or Senator Cruz would rather deal with loosing a hard fought nomination battle than to become the second Romney.

357 posted on 04/07/2016 8:16:40 PM PDT by etcb (T)
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To: Jim Robinson

I should amend that to say Cruz would be truly eliminated from a first ballot win after 431 of the remaining bound delegates from upcoming primaries go to Trump. Because my minimum count is assuming that all non-Cruz/Trump delegates would be released and Cruz has at least a mathematical possibility of winning 100% of their support.


358 posted on 04/07/2016 8:22:49 PM PDT by JediJones (The younger presidential candidate has won the popular vote since '92. Vote younger. Vote Cruz. Win.)
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To: freespirit2012

ok . you taught me something.

If K has team like Cruz to get loyal delegates, god bless him.


359 posted on 04/07/2016 8:24:15 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: Ms Mable

I’m sure the Texas taxpayers can decide for themselves whether they’d like a fellow Texan to become President enough to permit him to take some time off from his Senate job.


360 posted on 04/07/2016 8:26:55 PM PDT by JediJones (The younger presidential candidate has won the popular vote since '92. Vote younger. Vote Cruz. Win.)
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