Posted on 10/31/2004 5:11:07 PM PST by VAGOP
Just reported by Aaron Brown on CNN-
2000 Redux? Who could have imagined both sides would split evenly in a second consecutive presidential election? The final Gallup Poll in 2000 had Bush and Gore at 48%-48% each. If this holds up, we're in for another long night Tuesday and the final winner won't be known for weeks. The winner will be then determined by TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT.
President Bush now down in Florida. That's BS. Laura Ingram on Larry King last Thursday wanted to bet Senator Graham 500 (Going to charity) that President Bush would win FL. Graham would not bet.
I think Cheney called it earlier in the week. Bush by 4 or 5.
The problem many of us have with all the polls is the wide fluctuations in the state numbers seemingly from day to day. The polling business is no better than a gambling venture. Most of us could probably pick the winner as well as the Zogbys and Rasmussens of the world.
Gallup, as a rule, does not weight. They have made that point repeatedly this cycle. For this poll, they weighted. I find that interesting.
Late in his career, his football predictions were always the same - He would choose a score that had the favorite winning by exactly the point spread and the total score would exactly match the Over/Under.
If Dallas was favored by 3 over the Redskins and the Over/Under was 23 points, his prediction would be Dallas 13, Washington 10.
Also, if Bush get 25% of Maine's vote, he get another 1 EV.
Tradesports.com where people risk their money and has traditionally been much more accurate than the polls, has Bush at 55 and Kerry at 45. Same is very close to true on the Iowa Electronic Markets. A monumental TEN POINT difference.
What's up?
MSM: they are playing hardball
Gallup assumed that most undecideds would break toward Kerry. There is a problem with the theory that this years undecideds will break against the President, because of what happened in previous elections. By now in all of those other elections undecideds had already broken toward the challenger. They usually do so within one week before the election, not 36 hours. This year already doesnt conform to that precedent.
Well folks, go back to four years ago. Truth is, most polls did very poorly, as I remember.
These people are in business and want to make money and maintain clients. The collective message of all these polls is they don't know what the heck is going on out there. Massive registration, early voting, cell phones, etc. etc. No one wants to make the call and be dead wrong.
This election will come down to turnout. It's that simple.
This makes absolutely no sense. Nobody really expects Bush to win in PA. We all know the real deal---all you have to do is study our enemy's body language, facial expression, THEY are the ones who look worried to me...I think Bush will win FL and OH...just a gut feeling I know, but hey THE FACTS are on our side when the REAL numbers are examined, plus the superior ground game, ie 72 HOUR GOTV in all the states that matter...DO NOT WORRY YOURSELVES TO DEATH...go over to jaycost.blogspot.com and take a deep deep breath
CHILL I SAY!!!!!
It won't be close...
I'm guessing that it's Bush with 49?
I have my own theory.
Prior to 2000 polling outfits typically called the race for the correct winner but underestimated the Republican's final numbers and either got right or slightly over estimated the Democrats final numbers.
In 2000 since the election was much more than just election nights and polls came into question...they have returned to underestimating Republican numbers (Bush numbers).
Why in the world can Kerry seldom crack 47 percent yet Bush can't get to 50 percent? It doesn't make sense. If this REALLY is the case then it seems to me there may be more people staying home than the convention wisdom says for this year. There are NO undecideds this year. So what does this tell us? Probably the undecideds are non-voters so if 3% of 600 are undecided then the sample then goes down to 582. If Bush is getting 49% of that number and Kerry is getting 47% then this really equates to Bush getting 50.5% and Kerry is getting 48.5% which should guarantee Bush an EC victory if this is the case.
I am pretty sure it is either going to be Bush or Kerry, I don't think Nader can win.
So here we are 2 years later and they are basing the polls again on the 2000 model........its like they forget what happened on Sept 11, 2001.
It won't be close.
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