It won't be close...
Bush in Florida today was a good thing. That should keep Florida safe. On another thread, based on early voting statewide in Florida, Bush was ahead by about 125,000 votes. This is with about 20 - 25% of actual turnout who have voted. I guess they based this on demographics of voters and this was their conservative estimate. Apparently, this was mentioned on local Florida political program. There was a Dem on that panel who heard this and did not disagree. So this leads me to believe we are ahead in early voting. 125,000 lead (conservative estimate) with about a quarter of the populace already voted is going to be difficult for Kerry to overcome.
If about 6.25 million voters vote, that means about 1.5 million or so have already voted. If we have a lead of 125,000, that leaves Kerry only with 4.75 million to make up that difference. That will be extremely difficult.