Tradesports.com where people risk their money and has traditionally been much more accurate than the polls, has Bush at 55 and Kerry at 45. Same is very close to true on the Iowa Electronic Markets. A monumental TEN POINT difference.
What's up?
What's up?
That does not represent the spread between Bush and Kerry. That represents the bookmakers opinion as to what their risk is to pay on Bush or Kerry.
If it was 70-30 Bush that would be a good thing. Tradesports bookmakers are laying off the odds that this can go either way and we won't know until Wednesday morning.
That is probability of winning ie Bush has 55% probability of winning.