Final Gallup 49-47

[VAGOP]

Just reported by Aaron Brown on CNN-

[Dog]

They just don't know... isn't it funny to see.

2002.....really spooked them.

[AntiGuv]

Gallup and I would seem to agree on "past breakout patterns" for undecideds..

The final tally will not be 49% to 47%, as I'm sure you realize.

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

Gallup assumed that most undecideds would break toward Kerry. There is a problem with the theory that this years undecideds will break against the President, because of what happened in previous elections. By now in all of those other elections undecideds had already broken toward the challenger. They usually do so within one week before the election, not 36 hours. This year already doesnt conform to that precedent.

The "undecideds" are a figment in the first place, so guessing what they will "do" is a fool's errand. All polls before the last one are lies.

[RW1974]

Looking at the final LV polls out so far - Newsweek, Pew, NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT, Gallup - you get an average of Bush 49.4 to Kerry 46.4.

[nelibeli]

They didn't have to make up the result. They polled from Friday to Sunday. It is close every time they poll on those days exclusively. I am totally not worried about this poll.

[okstate]

Actually I think that person was listing their *prediction*.

Gallup's prediction is indeed 49-49.

[freestyle]

Undecideds DON'T VOTE. If they did, they'd be called decideds.

[jwalsh07]

Certainly not. It will be Bush 50.8, Kerry 47.6, Nader 1, other assorted and sundry whackjobs 0.6.

And yes, like Gallup I added sauce based on the Amish turnout model.

[AntiGuv]

Opps! My prediction was 49.5% to 49.2% .. what's 0.1% between friends, though?

[antisocialista]

BUSH WINS!!!!


KERRY WHINES!!!!!

[Tester10]

Two points I want to make...

1. The state polls for Gallup are absurd! Bush up 4 in Penn, up 8 in Wisconsin? Impossible. These state polls should cause all of us to question Gallup's methodology, for both their national poll, and their state polls.

2. Here are all the polls released in the past 24 hours:
Bush up 6 in the Newsweek poll

Bush up 3 in the CBS/NY Times poll

Bush up 3 in the Pew Research poll

Bush up 1 in the NBC/WJ poll (a pure weekend poll)

Bush up 2 in the Gallup poll (a pure weekend poll)

All these polls look damn good for Bush.

This race is 51/48 for Bush. 296 EC for Bush. Bank on it.

[AntiGuv]

I'm estimating Nader 0.7%, other assorted and sundry whackjobs 0.6% ... the 49.5% and 49.2% are flip a coin between Bush & Kerry (with the slightest lean to Bush edging Kerry out).

[antisocialista]

I'm not dimissing it i just don't agree with it.

[Illinois Rep]

I agree on the undecideds. If 58% of all registered voters turn out to vote that would be a HUGE turnout...that means 42% of these people won't vote...so don't worry.

AS for the state polls...you can't just look at one. You have to look at Gallup who did the weekend...Mason Dixon who did weekday..etc..because NO one gets polled and those who do never get polled twice in their life..let alone twice in one week. So these polls together give a good idea where the race is. For a pollster to call any state race dead on accurate is just plain luck and mark my words some one will get lucky on a state or two...but the bottom line is who turns out the vote.

I happen to believe Bush supporters are p$ssed off..at the 4 years of constant belittling, demeaning, hatred and anger at a decent man...the President. We are p$ssed off at the obstructionist in the Senate minority...we are P$ssed of the Democrats are siding with terrorists (see Bin Ladens endorsement of Michael Moore) and we are pissed off that Democrats would rather politicize a war rather than offer support to win the damn thing.

We won't be told this election is close. We will go out and vote in numbers like we've never seen before. We will cast our vote for George Bush and give him a margin of victory beyond litigation. We will speak louder than ever before on Tuesday. Keep the faith, say the prayers that God is with each voter in that voting booth and they are willing to listen to God's call.

[1stMarylandRegiment]

Tradesports.com where people risk their money and has traditionally been much more accurate than the polls, has Bush at 55 and Kerry at 45. Same is very close to true on the Iowa Electronic Markets. A monumental TEN POINT difference.

What's up?

That does not represent the spread between Bush and Kerry. That represents the bookmakers opinion as to what their risk is to pay on Bush or Kerry.

If it was 70-30 Bush that would be a good thing. Tradesports bookmakers are laying off the odds that this can go either way and we won't know until Wednesday morning.

[Tester10]

In the Gallup poll, Bush's JA is 51% with likely voters. Another good sign.

[jwalsh07]

Gallups final poll was 49-47 LV's. Then they weighted and added two points to Kerry even though they repeatedly have said they don't or won't weight.

The only question I have is whether this is standard in their final poll or something new this year.

[Illinois Rep]

Just remember Matthew Dowd's comment about the CBS poll that had the race at 49-46...he said it was similar to what their internals were showing...a 3 poing lead. Gallup isn't that far off.

[okstate]

Today's polls actually have been:

TIPP Bush +5
CBS Bush +3
Pew Bush +3
NBC Bush +1
Rasmussen Bush +1
ABC/WaPo TIED
ARG TIED
Zogby TIED
FOX TIED
Gallup TIED

Half of the polls have Bush up 1-5 points... the other half have it dead even.

I bet Bush is up one, about 50-49-Nader 1

[Dog Gone]

Dog, do you think Bush has a chance in NJ? I'm thinking your state will be a bellwether for the rest of the country.

Your polls close at 8 pm your time. If Bush is within 4 or even manages to win NJ, I'm going to bed early, I think.