Posted on 09/11/2015 10:58:03 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Tenth farking place. Three months ago, I would have told you that a midwestern evangelical governor with Scott Walker’s record could stay home in Wisconsin and never campaign and still do no worse than, say, third in Iowa.
Remember, this is supposed to be Walker’s must-win early state.
Donald Trump has the support of 27 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 21 percent for Ben Carson and 9 percent for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to the results of a July 1 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University showing Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 18 percent, with Trump and Carson at 10 percent each.
Today, Walker is at 3 percent, way behind in the pack. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has 6 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 5 percent each for Carly Fiorina, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. No other candidate tops 4 percent, with 4 percent undecided.
Yes, that’s right, Scott Walker now trails “undecided.” In Iowa. In fact, check the RCP poll tracker for the state and you’ll find that it’s been a solid month since he’s cracked double digits there. The main cause, of course, is Trumpmania; Walker was at 22 percent in mid-July, right before Trump took off. But don’t underestimate the damage Ben Carson’s doing to his numbers too. The biggest takeaway from today’s Q-poll is that Carson’s ratings across a variety of “character” metrics — baseline favorability, trustworthiness, whether he cares about people like you — are simply phenomenal, almost unbelievably so. Here’s the data on the “people like you” question. Mind-boggling:
Overall, Carson’s favorable rating is 79/6. When Republicans are asked if he’s honest and trustworthy, they split … 88/4. Strong leadership qualities: 76/11. The right kind of temperament to handle an international crisis: 72/14. Iowans looooooove them some Ben Carson — so much so that it’s a mystery how he’s still trailing Trump in the race. The answer to that, I think, is twofold. First, Trump’s numbers are now surprisingly good themselves for a guy who started this race with negative favorable ratings among Republicans. He’s now at 60/35 favorable, with 56 percent saying he’s honest and trustworthy, 61 saying he cares about the problems of people like you — darned good for a flamboyant billionaire — and 52 percent saying he has the right temperament to handle an international crisis. Even so, those numbers pale next to Carson’s, which brings us to the second reason for Trump’s lead: At this point, he’s still benefiting from name recognition in polls. Just four percent of Iowans said they hadn’t heard enough about him to form an opinion yet compared to 15 percent who say so about Carson, a guy who’s already participated in one national debate and has had literature promoting him in Iowa for many months. Given the way his numbers are trending, unless he has a terrible debate next week, I figure he’ll pass Trump in Iowa no later than a month from now.
The poll’s a mixed bag for Ted Cruz, the third-place finisher. On the one hand, he’s sailed past Walker as the professional politician who’s best positioned to win Iowa if Trump and Carson falter. On the other hand, check this out:
Cruz has spent two and a half years building the case to Republicans voters that he may be in Washington but he’s not of Washington. The fact that he trails a doctor who’s never run for office before by double digits suggests that that project hasn’t totally succeeded. Here’s another alarm for Cruz from elsewhere in the crosstabs, answering the million-dollar question of whether he truly is the second choice of voters supporting his good friend Donald. Answer: Nope. Not by a longshot.
Cruz’s favorables are solid on all the metrics I mentioned above, but like everyone else in the field, they’re not quite on Carson’s level. I think Team Cruz is happy with this result, assuming (not unreasonably) that Carson will sound too shaky and amateurish on policy in the long run for Iowans to take the plunge for him on caucus night, but I don’t know. Carson’s a smart guy; he does in fact learn from his mistakes. If I had to bet on whether a famous neurosurgeon will sound more shaky or less shaky on policy as he bones up on it and spends more time interacting with voters on the trail, I’d bet on the latter. It’s easy to see why Iowans might eventually abandon Trump — the shtick will wear thin, the attacks on his bogus conservatism will start to bite, etc. It’s not as easy to see why they might abandon Carson. The best argument against him is that he’s a newbie with no experience, but look again at the second table I posted above. You really think “not enough government experience” is a winning attack in this climate?
Then again, I think Cruz will be just fine even if he finishes second or third in Iowa. His goal there is to prove that he’s a serious threat for the nomination, especially with South Carolina and the “SEC primary” on the horizon afterward. If he finishes, say, second to Carson in Iowa and Trump wins New Hampshire, South Carolinians may decide that Cruz is the most viable possible compromise candidate, an anti-establishmentarian who knows Washington well enough that he won’t feel at sea there if he’s elected. That’s when Cruz takes off. Exit question: Can Walker come back from this? It’s early, yeah, but once you’ve got the stink of loser on you, how likely are voters who dumped you in the first place to come back to you later?
It does seem that if the establishment Republicans are going down (they're going down), they'd rather lose than step aside.
I still don’t get the Carson appeal. He seems like a nice man yes - but a leader - NO.
Politician puffy face pic!
Inb4Whoisyourcandidate?
Carson will implode when his views on illegal immigration become well known. According to him, deportation is immoral and we have to give amnesty. We don’t need yet another President unwilling to enforce our laws.
Losing doesn’t matter to the GOP.
The GOP loses 100% of the time, every battle on every issue.
The only thing that matters to them is not shutting down the government.
I had high hopes for Walker but he has turned out to be a dud. Ben Carson seems ok but he would be eaten alive by the Left wing press and they would use his bones for toothpicks. Plus he would be owned by his donors and the GOPe. The only viable candidates or Cruz and Trump.
Don’t tell CW that Walker is down to 10th place in Iowa.
Walker just couldn’t make up his mind whether he was going to side with the citizens and the rule of law or the illegal aliens and their employers.
Somebody else filled that role.
There are millions of doctors in this country. Is it the Herman Cain thing again?
Walker has an actual track record as a “fighter,” taking on the left where it matters most. Defunding Planned Parenthood and the public employee unions.
Don’t know why that isn’t enough to get him traction.
Very surprising that Cruz is not 2nd choice of so-call tea party folks. Carson is outsider, non-politician, but nothing about him is Trump-like or what I’d call tea-party.
“We aren’t racists, dammit!” There it is.
There may be millions of people with doctorate degrees, but 900,000 MDs and DOs.
http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/total-active-physicians/
AS a VP pick, Carson could be devastating in the battleground states. He would completely shut down the whole “Republicans are racist” meme that Democrats have been working on for the past several years and he would bring in black votes from the urban counties especially when teamed up with Trump who isn’t doing too bad with blacks as it is. I like Carson because he could provide us with a much needed edge. And that’s it.
I agree. I was a fan of his too. He has the winning playbook. However in my best guess, he hired a few bad consultants from the Beltway who are giving him GOPe advice.
It includes MDs and DOs.
Just as the Brad Dayspring gang came on board.....
I’m not so sure that Carson will bring in the black vote for the simple reason that many think of him as an “Uncle Tom,” just like they did with Herman Cain and yes, Michael Steele when he was head of the RNC. Look at the things they say about Clarence Thomas. I’m also not sure which states Carson could pull in and we need Florida and Ohio to win. Hopefully, we can flip a blue state too - just what states do you see Carson being able to pull in for Trump? Paul Ryan couldn’t even deliver WI for Romney. For that matter, Romney couldn’t even deliver his home state. I’m not so sure that Trump will carry NY either - that state is completely a nanny state now - as is CA.
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