Posted on 06/04/2019 5:48:49 PM PDT by SMGFan
Two in states won by Clinton and six in states that backed Trump
ANALYSIS — The fight for the Senate starts off with only a handful of seats at risk. And that’s being generous.
A few other states are worth your attention because of their competitiveness or questions about President Donald Trump’s impact, but almost two-thirds of Senate contests this cycle start as “safe” for the incumbent party and are likely to remain that way.
Of course, a retirement or a public scandal could create a contest where one should not exist, and an implosion of the Trump presidency could create an opportunity or two for Democrats.
But the nation’s polarization and intense partisan divide, combined with the fundamentals of the 34 states that will have a Senate race next year, suggest that only a few states — and a few voters — will decide which party runs the chamber in 2021.
The Senate now stands at 53 Republicans and 47 in the Democratic Conference. So Democrats need a net gain of three or four seats to win control, depending on who wins the White House (since the vice president, as president of the Senate, casts tie-breaking votes).
Seven of the dozen Democratic seats up this cycle are in strongly Democratic states and not competitive: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon and Rhode Island. Even Sen. Tom Udall’s retirement does not put New Mexico into play.
Among battleground states with Democratic incumbents, Virginia has been moving toward the Democrats as the Washington, D.C., and Richmond suburbs have grown. And Hillary Clinton’s 5-point victory in the state in 2016, combined with the following year’s gubernatorial result, suggests Trump is likely to be an albatross around the neck of the eventual GOP Senate nominee in the Old Dominion.
Minnesota and New Hampshire are competitive states that Democrats cannot afford to lose. (Clinton carried each narrowly.) Both states bear watching, though Democratic incumbents Tina Smith of Minnesota and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire start off with clear advantages.
In Michigan, a state surprisingly carried by Trump in 2016, freshman Democrat Gary Peters starts off with the advantage but must also prove his mettle. Again, his seat is a “must hold” for Democrats.
“The Senate is the real issue in 2020, we must hold it!”
Unfortunately, we will have to hold our collective noses and elect this collection of RINO feces, or Trump’s judge replacement program will stall for good!
All the Dims are far-left nut jobs. There isn’t a sane one in the bunch.
That’s ridiculous, Trump, with the help of the senate is reshaping the courts which will have an effect on this country for a very long time. We must keep the majority.
I’m born and bred, and I can confidently state that a tree stump with a (D) after it will be competitive in any election.
Fortunately, Tina Smith is still a political seedling.
She’s either plain stupid or just an obvious sh!t stirring troll.
Actually the House is very important too. Holding the Senate is important because of Judicial appointment reviews, but we need that House back very badly.
I don’t want Trump’s 8 years to be hobbled the whole way.
Senators do mot serve two year terms. Was he a replacement in 2018?
To Venezuela...(I mean, if I have to live in a hellholes, I'll go to a hellholes that is wrecked...not one that will be wrecked by MORONS...)
Trump, with the help of the senate is reshaping the courts which will have an effect on this country for a very long time.
Show me some significant evidence of that. It’s wishful thinking until proven otherwise. Left wing activist judges continue their unconstitutional assaults unchecked by a “reshaped” Trump appointed judiciary.
Unfortunately the Colorado GOP is too stupid to primary Cory Gardner and will go down with the ship. No ground game, minimal voter registration/turnout effort, and a lame duck Cory will make for two blue senators from CO. I sure hope other states can take away Senate seats to make up for our pathetic GOP in CO.
In 2021, when the new Senate convenes, the “Majority Leader” will be one of those two men. Deal with it.
Oh, I’ll deal with it. I will deal with it he same way I dealt with Mitt Romney (who I happily voted for) preferring Hillary Rotten Criminal and her constitution destroying SCOTUS to what has proven to be the most conservative POTUS since Reagan. I will no longer support a party that does not respect my vote. I’m all in for POTUS and that is it. Period.
Party loyalty will not be a one way street in my house. And I and millions of other Trump voters will not be bullied by self appointed GOP Kapos into changing that position. You, my friend, can deal with that fact. Never Trumpism to the benefit of progressive Democrats has changed the GOP coalition forever.
If you FEEL that strongly about it, vote for democRATs. It’s the honest thing for you to do. Just admit it.
I already voted for a Democrat. His name is Marco Rubio. Just because he isn’t always voting with Bernie Sanders doesn’t mean he isn’t a destructive force in the US Senate. Apparently, you didn’t noticed when he voted against the Border Emergency, gave his full support to the Mueller Coup, etc., etc. Moderate Democrats have moved into the GOP and call themselves Republicans. However, as Rush has pointed out, they run as conservatives and govern as progressives. No thanks. I’m out.
My household will NOT be voting for Gardner.
Besides, are you going to vote for Hickenlooper? or whoever they put up? And if you don't vote, you may as well cast your vote for the Dem.
Oh, how brave and honorable of you. How wonderful to be pure!
Well, then vote Dem. I couldn’t care less and I just can’t wait to see the Schumer led Senate. Oh, I think it would be wonderful to watch, so please vote Dem....please, please and some more pleases.
I will never vote FOR the party of preborn children murderers.
But I will NOT vote for liberal light. I did that too many times (McCain, Romney). Tired of backstabbing, modern day slavery (illegal immigrant cheap labor) supporting RINOS.
Gardner has taken a stand on the wrong side of the debates far too often. He is trying to be a centrist. Coffman tried to do the same thing and we lost the seat.
Represent your party well, or go home. Support the President in trying to fix the illegal immigration crisis and support immigration reform. Stop publically torpedoing the President’s policies for headlines. Get in there and come up with solutions.
Stop supporting the invasion of our country because you have some donors who love profit over their fellow citizens. This support harms my household.
It harms all of the households in his district. Whether we are citizens strapped with the cost of illegal immigrants social support or criminal culture, or illegal immigrants being treated as subhuman, we are all paying the price.
Most likely. She has done NOTHING, and when she does make public comments, they don’t help her.
Enema is bad, but is less bad than 99% of the other DemoKKKrats. She voted for 4 out of 5 of the Trump judges two weeks ago.
I think the senate will flip to the dems. McConnell will do his best to see that the GOP takes a dive.
Drivel
That is one of the most misguided posts ever to take up bandwidth on Free Rapublic
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