Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The 8 Senate races likely to determine control of the chamber
RollCall ^ | June 4, 2019 | Sruart Rothenberg

Posted on 06/04/2019 5:48:49 PM PDT by SMGFan

Two in states won by Clinton and six in states that backed Trump

ANALYSIS — The fight for the Senate starts off with only a handful of seats at risk. And that’s being generous.

A few other states are worth your attention because of their competitiveness or questions about President Donald Trump’s impact, but almost two-thirds of Senate contests this cycle start as “safe” for the incumbent party and are likely to remain that way.

Of course, a retirement or a public scandal could create a contest where one should not exist, and an implosion of the Trump presidency could create an opportunity or two for Democrats.

But the nation’s polarization and intense partisan divide, combined with the fundamentals of the 34 states that will have a Senate race next year, suggest that only a few states — and a few voters — will decide which party runs the chamber in 2021.

The Senate now stands at 53 Republicans and 47 in the Democratic Conference. So Democrats need a net gain of three or four seats to win control, depending on who wins the White House (since the vice president, as president of the Senate, casts tie-breaking votes).

Seven of the dozen Democratic seats up this cycle are in strongly Democratic states and not competitive: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon and Rhode Island. Even Sen. Tom Udall’s retirement does not put New Mexico into play.

Among battleground states with Democratic incumbents, Virginia has been moving toward the Democrats as the Washington, D.C., and Richmond suburbs have grown. And Hillary Clinton’s 5-point victory in the state in 2016, combined with the following year’s gubernatorial result, suggests Trump is likely to be an albatross around the neck of the eventual GOP Senate nominee in the Old Dominion.

Minnesota and New Hampshire are competitive states that Democrats cannot afford to lose. (Clinton carried each narrowly.) Both states bear watching, though Democratic incumbents Tina Smith of Minnesota and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire start off with clear advantages.

In Michigan, a state surprisingly carried by Trump in 2016, freshman Democrat Gary Peters starts off with the advantage but must also prove his mettle. Again, his seat is a “must hold” for Democrats.


TOPICS: Israel; Politics/Elections; US: Delaware; US: Illinois; US: Massachusetts; US: Michigan; US: Minnesota; US: New Hampshire; US: New Jersey; US: New Mexico; US: Oregon; US: Rhode Island; US: Virginia; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 2ndamendment; abortion; banglist; boycotts; buildthefence; canada; daca; declassification; delaware; dnctalkingpoint; dnctalkingpoints; dreamact; dreamers; elizabethwarren; fbi; fisa; garypeters; genderdysphoria; globalwarminghoax; greennewdeal; homosexualagenda; illinois; impeachment; incometaxes; infanticide; israel; jeanneshaheen; jerusalem; letshavejerusalem; massachusetts; mediawingofthednc; medicareforall; mexico; nafta; newhampshire; newjersey; newmexico; nra; obamacare; oregon; partisanmediashills; presstitutes; rhodeisland; richmond; sanctions; scottbrown; secondamendment; slingingbull; smearmachine; stuartrothenberg; tariffs; taxcutsandjobsact; taxreform; tcja; tinasmith; trade; usmca; virginia; waronterror
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-66 next last
To: lodi90

BRAVO Lodi we have already lost the Senate, these BASTARDS are Dems we gave them ALL 3 branches of government and the SOB’s gave us the middle finger!! Well after their BS today I now give them MY MIDDLE FINGER!!!


21 posted on 06/04/2019 6:28:42 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Republican Wildcat
John James can win that seat - but he has to have the $$$. The end result in 2018 proved if he had had full funding from the beginning, that race was entirely winnable. He needs $10 million (minimum) to be able to run a full media campaign starting September 1. Not just two weeks before the election like in 2018 - where the gap closed rapidly after he got up on the air, but the gap was too large to close in so little time. That was a huge missed opportunity.

John James is a good man, this might be a good place for our donations. I hope that the Republican Party supports him this time. (early)

22 posted on 06/04/2019 6:35:37 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: lodi90

Based on the judicial appointments especially to the Supremes and the 9th circus, I somewhat disagree with you. Today, however, with the crap talk about not supporting the tariffs on Mexico does give me pause though.


23 posted on 06/04/2019 6:36:43 PM PDT by hawkaw
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Trump Girl Kit Cat

Who knows. Majority Leader Schumer could even subpoena Don Jr. Or block all of Trump’s Fed reserve picks. Or vote against a Presidential National Emergency on the border declaration. What a disaster that would be.


24 posted on 06/04/2019 6:37:06 PM PDT by lodi90
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: hawkaw

Based on the judicial appointments especially to the Supremes and the 9th circus, I somewhat disagree with you


I’m just not willing to count my chickens on McConnell vetted “Trump judges” just yet.

Especially after the Fed picks fiasco where McConnell allowed Romney and the rest to outragously sink President Trump’s MAGA nominees.

Aside from the John Robert’s example of a GOP jurist you have the “Trump judge” who ordered dirtbag Acosta back in the WH. I suspect in the end we will see the “Trump judges” are mostly career Deep State loyalists and nothing more.


25 posted on 06/04/2019 6:41:05 PM PDT by lodi90
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

At this point, McSally is on thin ice in AZ. She is just utterly incompetent, coming out against Trump’s Me-hee-co tariff. Tone deaf as hell.


26 posted on 06/04/2019 6:44:14 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: lodi90

John James can win? All he needs is money? The solution is DEMOCRATICALLY simple: Tax the rich. That means have the big donors lead the way. Don’t ask me for another $50. He hasn’t even made his mind up on a slightly more winnable seat. If he needs help I don’t see it here.


27 posted on 06/04/2019 6:49:06 PM PDT by DIRTYSECRET (urope. Why do they put up with this.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: Trump Girl Kit Cat

So what the heck are you and lodi90 trying to accomplish here? You two can’t possibly think Dem control of the Senate is better for America than GOP control. So what are you two really after?


28 posted on 06/04/2019 7:03:49 PM PDT by Tom in SFCA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Tom in SFCA

Frankly I see NO DIFFERENCE in the Dems and the Republicans at this point not a DAMN BIT OF DIFFERENCE!!!


29 posted on 06/04/2019 7:08:04 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: JoSixChip

Amazing isn’t the way they go against the ones they know will come out and support them for some that has a fleeting chance of a vote


30 posted on 06/04/2019 7:14:54 PM PDT by Sybeck1 (Trump 2020)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Trump Girl Kit Cat

That doesn’t make any sense and it doesn’t explain your posts anyway. You want the GOP to lose the Senate. Either you are a leftist or else you are mentally ill.


31 posted on 06/04/2019 7:17:09 PM PDT by Tom in SFCA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: Republican Wildcat

We LOST the vote on overturning OCARE because of a Republican, we were strapped WITH OCARE in the first place because of a CONSERVATIVE justice, our borders are being OVER RUN and the senate does NOTHING!!! NONE of these BASTARD senators have taken to the microphone to defend our POTUS over this never ending investigation NO ONE!!! So what the HELL is the difference if Schumer was at the helm, the courts, well we don’t even know for sure if these judges won’t end up being Roberts!!! As far as Kavanaugh is concerned these pussy senators would have folded their tents on him if not for Trump refusing to pull his nomination the ONLY damn senator who stood his ground for Kavanaugh was Graham!!!


32 posted on 06/04/2019 7:28:47 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: lodi90
Your subservient attitude

Whatever ...

In 2021, when the new Senate convenes, the "Majority Leader" will be one of those two men. Deal with it.

33 posted on 06/04/2019 7:28:58 PM PDT by NorthMountain (... the right of the peopIe to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Doug Jones (D) will be ousted in Alabama and replaced by Bradley Byrne (R), bet on it.


34 posted on 06/04/2019 7:29:43 PM PDT by TonyM (Score Event)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Trump Girl Kit Cat

If you FEEL that strongly about it, vote for democRATs. It’s the honest thing for you to do. Just admit it.


35 posted on 06/04/2019 7:30:07 PM PDT by NorthMountain (... the right of the peopIe to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Who controls the Senate is up to Mitch McConnel, it looks like he is going to do to the Senate what Ryan did to the House.


36 posted on 06/04/2019 7:30:13 PM PDT by itsahoot (Welcome to the New USA where Islam is a religion of peace and Christianity is a mental disorder.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Tom in SFCA

These bastards need to go, if we suffer the short term havoc then so be it we start over with CONSERVATIVE senators these BASTARDS are Dems anyway, we have already LOST the senate and I am NOT mentally ill!! These bastards don’t give a damn about this country it is that plain and simple AND they don’t deserve to be in power, they ARE NOT defending our constitution they ARE defending DONORS!!! This is the greatest POTUS we could have EVER given them and WE get the middle finger from them!!!


37 posted on 06/04/2019 7:35:01 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: NorthMountain

I don’t have to vote at all for the senate and THAT is what I will choose to do!!!


38 posted on 06/04/2019 7:36:47 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: Republican Wildcat

Pro-life is NOT a winning issue in MN.
It is unlikely it will ever be.
I lived in MN for 1/3 of my life.


39 posted on 06/04/2019 7:39:30 PM PDT by Zathras
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: LS

Mcsally’s seat in AZ is a goner. Sadly.


40 posted on 06/04/2019 7:44:33 PM PDT by FLvoter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-66 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson