Posted on 03/08/2010 7:31:26 AM PST by SeattleBruce
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- The fledgling economic recovery appears to be running out of gas.
The fuel for this or any other recovery has to come from the consumer. Purchases of goods and services by people like you and me account for about 70% of gross domestic product, so without our help a recovery could not last too long.
Guess what? This is exactly what seems to be happening. Retailers report that, for the most part, shoppers are few and far between.
The recent run of economic data is most compelling. Just about all of the reports paint a picture of an economy slowing -- and sharply, at that.
Here are just a few:
Both consumer confidence and sentiment have fallen unexpectedly.
After-tax personal incomes adjusted for inflation have flattened.
Sales of both new and existing homes took a surprising stumble.
Orders for most durable goods are down.
Manufacturing has slowed.
Jobless claims are up.
Fourth-quarter GDP growth came largely from a slower pace of inventory liquidation, not from an increase in consumer spending.
And, as a matter of fact, consumer spending weakened last quarter.
Understand that the changes in the data above were not insignificant:
Consumer confidence fell to a 27-year low.
New-home sales fell to record lows, and they are likely to fall even further, since mortgage applications are down to 13-year lows.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
“Consumer confidence fell to a 27-year low.
That would be the tail-end of the Carter administration”
2010 minus 27 years equals 1983, two years into the
Reagan presidency.
“The Chinese economy is only doing as well as it is because they made themselves take a healthy dose of capitalism.”
Do you feel like now the Chinese are more capitalistic than the USA?
Ack! Okay, giving up caffeine is just not working....
Problem is, wbill—the only reason we haven’t had HIGHER unemployment is because of the number of “discouraged” workers. Look at the U-6 number if you want a REAL indication of where we’re at, and IIRC, last month’s figure was just under 17 percent. That number won’t improve with the addition of a mere 100K jobs. Even temporary Census workers will return to the unemployment line, and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts are causing more businesses to hold off hiring. Yeah, 2010 might not be too terrible, but this is the calm before the storm of 2011-2012.
Why not?
They still blame the Great Depression on Herbert “I’m an engineer and I can make Central Planning work” Hoover.
It won't matter what unemployment really is as they will (continue to) just make up whatever number they need to suit them.
It's down a little - 16.8% (I think) - down from around 18%. But, to still have *real* unemployment / underemployment hovering around 20% is scary, IMHO.
FWIW, I saw some numbers on U6. In the best of times, it was around 7.5 - 8%. Which supports something my Dad always told me - 5% of the population is completely unemployable. Figure that a couple of percent more would be in between jobs, or laid off and looking, etc etc etc.
Roughly, the long term graph showed that things are 8-10% worse than the historical unemployment lows, and around 5-8% worse than normal. Figure that an extra 1 out of 15 people are unemployed or underemployed, over what would be considered normal....that's pretty bad.
What I'm wondering - and I'd guess that these are more rhetorical questions, as I doubt that they can be measured - are the following:
1. How much of the economy has been driven underground? Think barter, being paid cash off the books, etc etc etc.
2. Assuming that at any specific moment, there are a finite number of jobs, how many of these jobs are consumed by illegals? Figure that 1+2 have some overlap.
3. How is the current exodus of illegals (look it up, it's happening) affecting the jobs market?
4. How has the jobs market been irretrievably damaged by illegal immigration? For instance, it's currently impossible in my area to hire a roofer who uses local labor. They don't exist, I tried, the best I could find was locally owned with a local foreman. Where did all of the "American" (read, local, not foreign/illegal) roofers go? What are they doing now? I live in a fairly large metropolitan area - there must have been a fairly decent number of them.....
No need to respond - I'm just using my lunch hour to rant. Listened to Rush and he got me all fired up. :-)
>>The Chinese economy is only doing as well as it is because they made themselves take a healthy dose of capitalism.
>
>Do you feel like now the Chinese are more capitalistic than the USA?
What do you mean ‘feel’? They _ARE_ more capitalistic than Americans, just look at all the “’off-brand’ Chinese knockoffs.” Part of that has to do with the lack of copyright/patent laws in China.
Sales of both new and existing homes took a surprising stumble.
I'm really getting tired of this "unexpected" and "surprising" bullshit.
The economy's in the tank, and probably isn't going to be that much better for another five or ten years. Maybe longer. How's that?
For Obama to fully realize his socialist dreams, he must first tear down what is in the way - Capitalism.
I wish there was some way this guy could be impeached before he has a chance to do any further damage.
Man, well, I guess I shouldn’t have taken out another $250,000 in high-interest, high-risk loans, on the news that recovery was underway and the best days of my life were just around the corner!
(just kidding, btw)
“....doing well are people employed in government or municipalities.”
they’re being paid out of debt dollars that YOU and I are responsible for!!!
Same thing at the Kingman, AZ show last February. By 11 a.m. lines were still out the door and the aisles were jammed - could hardly get through.
I wish there was some way this guy could be impeached before he has a chance to do any further damage.
Pray for obama. Psalm 109:8-9.
Trying? Give him credit for something - he's doing a bang up job on the economy - I mean literally.
LOL!
I had read the 109 8 before but I think we can do without the 9th verse.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.