Threat Matrix: December 2007

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[nwctwx]

Calculating the Risks in Pakistan

A small group of U.S. military experts and intelligence officials convened in Washington for a classified war game last year, exploring strategies for securing Pakistan's nuclear arsenal if the country's political institutions and military safeguards began to fall apart.

The secret exercise — conducted without official sponsorship from any government agency, apparently due to the sensitivity of its subject — was one of several such games the U.S. government has conducted in recent years examining various options and scenarios for Pakistan's nuclear weapons: How many troops might be required for a military intervention in Pakistan? Could Pakistani nuclear bunkers be isolated by saturating the surrounding areas with tens of thousands of high-powered mines, dropped from the air and packed with anti-tank and anti-personnel munitions? Or might such a move only worsen the security of Pakistan's arsenal?
Full story...

	Musharraf: U.S. Shares Blame for Pakistan and Afghanistan
	Bin Laden's Message to the Europeans
	Messages from bin Laden Since 9-11

Threat Matrix:
December 2007

November 2007

Threat Matrix Index

Theat Matrix Handbook

Theat Matrix 'BOLO'

Invaluable Tips

Preparedness

[Cindy]

http://www.travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_915.html

Travel Warning
United States Department of State
Bureau of Consular Affairs
Washington, DC 20520

This information is current as of today, Tue Dec 11 2007 04:23:05 GMT-0800 (PST).

CôTE D’IVOIRE

December 05, 2007

[Cindy]

Note: To read the entire report; click on the link below.

ICC-CCS.ORG - THE WEEKLY PIRACY REPORT - REPORT SNIPPET - QUOTE:

http://www.icc-ccs.org/prc/piracyreport.php

Weekly Piracy Report
4-10 December 2007

The following is a summary of the daily reports broadcast by the IMB’s Piracy Reporting Centre to ships in Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean Regions on the SafetyNET service of Inmarsat-C from 4 to 10 December 2007.

ALERT

Chittagong anchorage, Bangladesh
The number of attacks has reduced since 2006. However, the area is still listed as a high risk area and mariners are advised to be cautious especially while approaching the anchorage and while at anchor at Chittagong

Suspicious crafts

Recently reported incidents

07.12.2007: 0206 UTC: 06:14N – 003:22E, Lagos anchorage, Nigeria.
Two pirates, armed with guns and knives, boarded a bulk carrier drifting. The pirates tied up the aft watchmen. The forward watchman sighted the pirates, ran into the accommodation and locked all entrance doors. Duty officer informed, alarm raised and crew mustered. Pirates immediately jumped overboard and fled in the waiting wooden motor boat. The two watchmen had light injuries. Port control informed.

28.11.2007 late evening off Lagos, Africa.
In what appeared to be a military launch with twelve armed robbers dressed in military fatigues approached the tanker at anchor. Nine persons boarded the vessel and ordered the master to disembark into their launch. The master refused and escaped towards the accommodation. The robbers opened fire on the master. Luckily, the master escaped unhurt. While searching and looting the accommodation, the robbers took as hostage, the 2nd officer, one A/B and the cook. The three hostages were released after 90 minutes in exchange for cash and cigarettes. On 29.11.2007, the master received a phone call, threatening him that the robbers would attack again in the next port.

09.12.2007: 0430 LT: Posn 06:44S – 039:32E port of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Pirates boarded a container ship drifting. Pirates boarded unnoticed. They broke padlocks, removed container lashing bars and stole ship’s stores and cargo. On carrying out a search only footprints were noticed. Port control was informed.

[Cindy]

Note: The following alert-brief is a quote:

http://www.icc-ccs.org/main/all_piracy_al.php

Lagos - Nigeria
28 November 2007
Masters advised to remain vigilant and question the intentions of all craft approaching their vessels. Pirates dressed in military fatigues and using military launches are boarding vessels and taking hostages. The hostages are later released in exchange for cash and cigarettes.

[Cindy]

PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesman
This information is current as of today, Tue Dec 11 2007 04:26:55 GMT-0800 (PST).

Worldwide Caution

October 09, 2007

[Cindy]

PERSECUTION.ORG
http://www.persecution.org

[Godzilla]

placemark

[PGalt]

Thanks for your post #171. Interesting information and links about Mohammad Afzal Sodagar at the homelandsecurityus website.

[Cindy]

Thank you P Galt.

[Oorang]

Suicide attack at Pakistani nuclear weapons complex
December 10, 2007

As the Pakistani military continues the slow push to regain control of the settled district of Swat, suicide bombers struck in two locations, one at a sensitive weapons facility near Islamabad. The most deadly attack occurred in Swat in the Northwest Frontier Province after a suicide bomber hit a police checkpoint near Matta, where the Pakistani Army just established a presence. Ten were killed, including two children and three police.

But the attack at a Pakistani Air Force base in Kamra, while only injuring seven, has far more serious implications. The Kamra complex is a likely location for Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. The suicide bomber targeted a bus filled with 35 children of Pakistani Air Force officers. The driver, a conductor, and five children were wounded in the strike.

Excerpted

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/12/suicide_attack_at_pa.php

NATO retakes Taleban town after militants change sides
Tue 11 Dec 2007

BRITISH troops stormed into Musa Qala yesterday as Taleban fighters fled their fortress town. Soldiers from the 2nd Yorkshire Regiment, the Green Howards, pushed into the city with the Afghan army, as president Hamid Karzai revealed many local insurgents had swapped sides ahead of the overwhelming British assault.

He said: "The Afghan Taleban, they met with me. They said that they wanted to swap sides, and that is what has happened."

Excerpted

http://news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=1929492007

[Cindy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1937743/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1937743/posts?page=19#19

Thanks to a Special Freepmailer for pointing to this thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938008/posts

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/africa/12/11/algeria.blast/index.html

“Rescuers search for bomb survivors”

updated 1 hour, 44 minutes ago

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “ALGIERS, Algeria (CNN) — Rescuers are sifting through the rubble of the main United Nations headquarters in the Algerian capital looking for 14 U.N. staffers missing hours after a powerful bomb ripped off the building’s facade and leveled nearby U.N. offices Tuesday.
It was one of two suspected car bombs that struck Algiers within 10 minutes of each other.

The death toll is unclear: the official government count is at least 26, but hospital sources in Algiers told CNN affiliate BFM-TV that 76 people were killed in the two blasts. A statement from the United Nations said 45 people were reported killed.

Algerian Interior Minister Noureddine Yazid Zerhouni blamed a militant Islamic group with ties to al Qaeda for the attacks, which also targeted a building housing Algeria’s Constitutional Council and Supreme Court.

In a posting on an Islamist Web site, the group al Qaeda Islamic Maghreb claimed responsibility.

CNN could not immediately corroborate that claim, but the Web site is known to carry messages, claims and videos from al Qaeda and other militant groups.”

19 posted on 12/11/2007 2:27:07 PM PST by Cindy

[Cindy]

Note: The following news brief - snippet - is a quote:

http://www.fox5vegas.com/news/14825477/detail.html

BREAKING NEWS: 6 Teens Shot Exiting School Bus
Metro Searching For Teen Shooter Near Elementary
POSTED: 2:03 pm PST December 11, 2007
UPDATED: 3:06 pm PST December 11, 2007

LAS VEGAS — Metro police are searching for a teen boy after six students were shot at a bus stop.
The shooting happened just before 2 p.m. Tuesday near Walnut and Alexander roads.
Students said they were exiting a school bus from Mohave High School when one teen shot six to 10 rounds at fellow riders. One girl and five boys were injured, two of whom were shot the leg and one in the stomach.

[Cindy]

Separate incident from above.

Note: The following post is a quote:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938097/posts

Shots fired, juvenile with rifle in LHC (breaking)
Police scanner | 12/11/07 | Neil E. Wright
Posted on 12/11/2007 3:06:16 PM PST by Neil E. Wright
I’m listening to my scanner and Lake Havasu City PD officers are currently searching for a male juvenile seen toting a rifle in the vicinity of the local middle school.

There was also a report of three shots fired in that area.

Police just reported that the school is okay. Nothing further as of yet

[Cindy]

Ping to post no. 511 and 512:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1933472/posts?page=511#511

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1933472/posts?page=512#512

[Oorang]

Good grief, what is going on!?! Thanks for the breaking news Cindy.

_______________________________

Al-Qaida wing for North Africa says it's behind Algiers blasts
December 11, 2007

CAIRO, Egypt: The North African branch of al-Qaida said in an Internet posting it was behind the bombings in the Algerian capital on Tuesday, claiming also that 110 people were killed in the attacks carried out by two suicide truck bombers.

A statement posted on a militant Web site said two "martyrs" of al-Qaida in Islamic North Africa drove trucks loaded with 800 kilograms (1,700 pounds) of explosives each "to attack the headquarters of the international infidels' den" and the headquarters of the Algerian constitutional council.

SNIP:The group identified the suicide bombers as Ibrahim Abu Othman, who attacked the U.N. building, and Abdel-Rahman Abu Abdel-Nasser al-Assimi, who attacked the constitutional council building.

Excerpted

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/11/africa/ME-GEN-Al-Qaida-Algeria-Bombing-Claim.php

[Cindy]

Thanks to Blam for starting this thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938098/posts

“Somali Pirates Threaten To Kill Tanker Crew”
The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 12-11-2007 | Laura Clout
Posted on 12/11/2007 3:07:16 PM PST by blam

“Somali pirates threaten to kill tanker crew”

By Laura Clout and agencies
Last Updated: 12:32pm GMT 11/12/2007

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “A tense standoff has developed off the Somali coast between US warships and pirates who have hijacked a tanker packed with explosive chemicals.”

[Cindy]

You’re welcome Oorang.

[Cindy]

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2007/12/10/bc-shooting.html

“Man dies after police shooting in east Vancouver
At least 10 police cars were at the scene following afternoon gunfire”

Last Updated: Tuesday, December 11, 2007 | 12:47 AM ET

[Cindy]

UPDATE to post no. 511:

http://www.fox5vegas.com/news/14825477/detail.html

“2 Teens In Critical Condition After Shooting
Shootings May Be Gang-Related, Students Say”
POSTED: 2:03 pm PST December 11, 2007
UPDATED: 3:20 pm PST December 11, 2007

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “LAS VEGAS — Paramedics said that two of the six teens shot in a school-bus-stop shooting are in critical condition at University Medical Center.”

[Oorang]

Tales of terrorists breaching border overblown - so far
Tuesday, December 11, 2007

SAN ANTONIO – The story sounded plausible: sixty Afghan and Iraqi terrorists smuggled in by a Mexican drug cartel to attack an Army post in Arizona. As quickly as the story spread from a report last month in the Washington Times and reverberated around talk radio and conservative blogs, it died. The FBI dismissed the reported plot as not credible.

But the discredited scheme to blow up Fort Huachuca underscores a reality that haunts law enforcement and homeland security specialists: the fact that one day a terrorist could be among the thousands who cross the border illegally each year. State and federal officials charged with homeland protection, including securing the border, quickly stress that an illegal immigrant from a nation linked to terrorist groups is not necessarily a terrorist. "[But] every report, every rumor has to be investigated. We have to err on the side of caution," said Steve McCraw, director of the Texas Homeland Security office.

"We operate on the knowledge that groups like al-Qaeda, Hamas and Hezbollah have communities of support in Texas and the U.S.," he said. "We know terrorists have expressed interest in working through Mexican smuggling organizations to exploit our very porous border to enter the U.S. for terror operations."

Border Patrol officials defer to the FBI and other agencies any questions about whether suspects believed to have direct links to terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda have been apprehended at the border. But they emphasize that only a minuscule number of people picked up at the border are from one of the 35 countries designated by U.S. intelligence agencies as "special interest" for the potential to export terrorism.

In fiscal 2007, which ended in September, less than 1 percent of the 24,000 non-Mexican citizens apprehended by the Border Patrol came from special-interest countries. For example, seven came from Iran, eight from Iraq and 10 from Pakistan. Of the total, an even smaller group was turned over to the FBI for further investigation after their fingerprints triggered a "watch list" alarm. Mr. McCraw acknowledged that the overwhelming majority of people from suspect countries picked up at the border have no involvement with terrorism.

"There were 436 people from countries with known al-Qaeda presence arrested along the Texas/Mexico border in the past few years," he said. "Obviously, not all these people are al-Qaeda. Maybe none. "But one terrorist getting through is too many. We have to think about the ones that didn't get caught."

Mr. McCraw made headlines in September when he said in a speech in Dallas that terrorists with ties to Hezbollah, Hamas and al-Qaeda have been arrested along the Texas border. His comments echoed comments by National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell to the El Paso Times last summer that a small number of people with known links to terrorist organizations have been caught crossing the border. The FBI and the National Intelligence Office have not provided any details about these arrests.

Excerpted

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/world/mexico/stories/DN-borderterror_11int.ART0.State.Edition2.36952db.html

[Cindy]

http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp720.htm

December 7, 2007
HP-720

“Treasury Designates Individuals with Ties
to Al Qaida, Former Regime”

Washington, DC

###

RECAP:

http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp708.htm

December 4, 2007
HP-708

“Treasury Designates AQIM Emir”

Washington, DC