Threat Matrix: December 2007

Calculating the Risks in Pakistan

A small group of U.S. military experts and intelligence officials convened in Washington for a classified war game last year, exploring strategies for securing Pakistan's nuclear arsenal if the country's political institutions and military safeguards began to fall apart.

The secret exercise — conducted without official sponsorship from any government agency, apparently due to the sensitivity of its subject — was one of several such games the U.S. government has conducted in recent years examining various options and scenarios for Pakistan's nuclear weapons: How many troops might be required for a military intervention in Pakistan? Could Pakistani nuclear bunkers be isolated by saturating the surrounding areas with tens of thousands of high-powered mines, dropped from the air and packed with anti-tank and anti-personnel munitions? Or might such a move only worsen the security of Pakistan's arsenal?
Full story...

	Musharraf: U.S. Shares Blame for Pakistan and Afghanistan
	Bin Laden's Message to the Europeans
	Messages from bin Laden Since 9-11

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December 2007

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Cindy’s Note: I wish all my Jewish friends, freepers and lurkers a very blessed and peaceful Hanukkah.

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Note: The following text is a quote:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/12/20071210-3.html

For Immediate Release
Office of the Press Secretary
December 10, 2007

President Bush Hosts Hanukkah Reception
Grand Foyer
State Floor

Video (Windows)
Presidential Remarks
Audio
Holidays at the White House 2007
5:27 P.M. EST

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Good evening. Laura and I welcome you to the White House. Mr. Attorney General, thank you for being here. Secretary Chertoff, and family. Hanukkah is a time of joy and festivity in the Jewish religion. We’re honored to gather with members of the Jewish community to celebrate this holiday.

During Hanukkah, we remember an ancient struggle for freedom. More than two thousand years ago, a cruel tyrant ruled Judea — and forbade the Israelites from practicing their religion. A band of brothers came together to fight this oppression. And against incredible odds, they liberated the capital city of Jerusalem. As they set about rededicating the holy temple, they witnessed a great miracle: That purified oil that was supposed to last for one day burned for eight.

Jewish families commemorate this miracle by lighting the menorah for the eight nights of Hanukkah. The Talmud instructs families to place the menorah in public view — so the entire world can see its light. The flames remind us that light triumphs over darkness, faith conquers despair, and the desire for freedom burns inside every man, woman and child.

As we light the Hanukkah candles this year, we pray for those who still live under the shadow of tyranny. This afternoon, I met with a group of Jewish immigrants to mark International Human Rights Day. Many of these men and women fled from religious oppression in countries like Iran and Syria and the Soviet Union. They came to America because our nation is a beacon of freedom. And they see a day of hope on the horizon when people all across the world will worship in freedom. The forces of intolerance can suppress the menorah — but they can never extinguish its light.

The menorah we light tonight has special meaning. It once belonged to Chayim Pearl — who was the great-grandfather of Wall Street Journal reporter, Daniel Pearl. While reporting in Pakistan in 2002, Daniel was kidnapped and murdered by terrorists. His only crime was being a Jewish American — something Daniel Pearl would never deny. In his final moments, Daniel told his captors about a street in Israel named for his great-grandfather. He looked into their camera and he said, “My father is Jewish, my mother is Jewish, and I’m Jewish.” These words have become a source of inspiration for Americans of all faiths. They show the courage of a man who refused to bow before terror — and the strength of a spirit that could not be broken.

Daniel’s memory remains close to our hearts. Those who knew him best remember a gifted writer who loved the violin, and made friends wherever he went. We’re honored that Daniel’s parents — Ruth and Judea — have joined us today. We thank them for their work on behalf of the Daniel Pearl Foundation. The foundation helps bring people from different cultures together through journalism and music. It’s a fitting tribute to Daniel’s lifelong pursuit of truth and tolerance. By honoring Daniel, we are given the opportunity to bring forth hope from the darkness of tragedy — and that is a miracle worth celebrating during the Festival of Lights.

Laura and I wish people of Jewish faith around the world a happy Hanukkah. May God bless you all. Tonight, we will hear a wonderful performance by the Zamir Chorale. But first I ask Ruth and Judea to light the Pearl family menorah, and lead the blessings.

END 5:33 P.M. EST

CINDY’S NOTE:

Dear Lord,

Thank You for Jeanne Assam.
Thank You for guiding and protecting her.

In Jesus’ Holy name I pray this prayer of praise.

Amen.

###

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“Security Guard: ‘God Guided Me And Protected Me’
Jeanne Assam Stopped Gunman At New Life Church”

Thomas Hendrick, News Editor
POSTED: 4:46 pm MST December 10, 2007
UPDATED: 6:19 pm MST December 10, 2007

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — Jeanne Assam appeared before the news media for the first time Monday and said she “did not think for a minute to run away” when a gunman entered the New Life Church in Colorado Springs and started shooting.

There was applause as Assam went before reporters and TV cameras saying “God guided me and protected me.”

New Life’s Senior Pastor Brady Boyd called Assam “a real hero” because Murray “had enough ammunition on him to cause a lot of damage.”

When asked by a reporter if she felt like a hero, Assam said, “I was given the assignment to end this before it go too much worse.”
“I give credit to God,” she said.

Assam described how the gunman, Matthew Murray, entered the east entrance of the church firing his gun.

Click to read more about the shootings in Colorado Springs and Arvada.
“There was chaos,” Assam said, as parishioners ran away.

“I saw him coming through the doors” and took cover, Assam said. “I came out of cover and identified myself and engaged him and took him down.”
“God was with me,” Assam said. “I didn’t think for a minute to run away.”
Assam worked as a police officer in downtown Minneapolis during the 1990s and is licensed to carry a weapon. She attends one of the morning services and then volunteers as a guard during another service.”

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http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/019087.php

December 10, 2007

Jihadist targets bus full of schoolchildren

Feel the love. “Suicide bomber rams bus; children hurt,” by Simon Gardner and Augustine Anthony for Reuters (thanks to all who sent this in):

A SUICIDE bomber rammed a car packed with explosives into a schoolbus near an air force base in northwest Pakistan today, killing himself and wounding about nine people, including several children.

“A terrorist targeted a schoolchildren’s bus,” said military spokesman Major-General Waheed Arshad.

“The driver and the guard who were sitting in the front have been seriously injured”.

“Because of the timely reaction of the driver, the children were saved. Only about six or seven children were injured,” he added.

“It was outside the Kamra air base. It was specially targetting the schoolchildren’s bus.”

Posted by Robert at December 10, 2007 8:13 AM

Nato ready as Kosovo tension rises
Dec.10.07

British troops have been put on high alert to intervene in a possible war in Kosovo, Nato has announced. Military leaders fear renewed fighting in the breakaway Serbian province, where final negotiations for a peace deal have broken down.

"This is in Europe's backyard and European nations need to show real leadership," said David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary. He warned of a repeat of the wars that cost hundreds of thousands of lives. "We know from the mid-1990s the cost of Europe wringing its hands and failing to provide leadership."

Nato holds three battalions, each of some 800 soldiers, in reserve to its main peacekeeping force of about 16,000 troops in Kosovo. Of those, a German battalion has already been sent to the province. An Italian battalion and 800 British servicemen and women have been put on heightened alert for deployment to the region in case of an outbreak of ethnic violence in the coming weeks. They would be able to deploy within a week of commanders on the ground requesting assistance.

The escalation in tension in the Balkans comes ahead of Monday's official deadline for a report on talks between Serbia, which refuses to give up Kosovo, and ethnic Albanians, who demand independence.

Excerpted

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/12/08/wkosovo108.xml

EU Gathers to Present United Front on Kosovo
Dec.10,2007

The deadline for reaching an agreement on Kosovo's future was Dec. 10 but, as expected, the talks failed. Now the EU is hoping to unite in recognizing a unilateral declaration of independence while Russia warns of a "chain reaction" in the region.

The Dec. 10 deadline for negotiations on Kosovo's final status has arrived and hardly anyone is surprised that the talks have failed. Four months of negotiations could not succeed in getting past the crucial points of difference: Kosovo Albanians want independence and Serbia will only agree to autonomy. Now the clock is ticking towards a unilateral declaration of independence by the Kosovo Albanians, expected in the first two months of next year.

Excerpted

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,522366,00.html

Interpol chief warns of virus attack at sports event (UK)
Sun 9 Dec 2007

Police across the world say there is no doubt that terrorists are planning to release a plague virus at a major sports event. Experts are convinced that the bacteria will be distributed using something as simple as a child's plastic horn.

With the Beijing Olympics just months away and the World Cup to be held in South Africa in 2010, there are plenty of opportunities for an attack. Although it is more than six years before Scotland hosts the Commonwealth Games, its organisers say they are not taking anything for granted. A conference, codenamed 'Black Death' and organised by Interpol, was held last week in Lyon, France.

Ronald Noble, Interpol's general secretary, told delegates about the threat posed by bio-terrorists. He said: "We will deal with a worst-case scenario of global proportion - terrorists that produce large amounts of a deadly bacteria, [or] plague - and disseminate it using hundreds of simple horns, the kind which children use at sporting events. In their wake are mass casualties and even greater disruption to society." Security sources say the idea of terrorists using toy horns to distribute a deadly virus is a significant possibility.

One insider told Scotland on Sunday: "This has come from information received from the authorities in Indonesia, where references to such a form of attack were discovered." He said it was simple and "very straightforward but potentially, absolutely deadly".

Noble said the threat needed to be addressed by everyone in order to prevent the terrorists from succeeding. He said this type of attack "does not rely on advanced scientific expertise, large amounts of money or elaborate laboratories. This is the truly frightening form aspect of bio-terrorism. It is the perfect storm of opportunity and motivation".

The subject of targeting major sporting events was also identified recently by experts at Indiana University. The authors of a report called 'Bio-terrorism and me' wrote: "Biological and chemical toxins can be released in several different ways. "For practical purposes, certain delivery methods are more likely to be used than others. If the goal is to launch an unforeseen attack on the population of a certain region causing the highest possible number of deaths, an aerosol delivery of the agent is the most likely choice."

A spokesman for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games said: "Security is our number one priority and we will be liaising extremely closely with experts constantly throughout the build-up to the games. "With a track record of regularly hosting major sporting, cultural and political events, the police and security services in this country have the knowledge and capacity to make sure that security is something that will not impinge on the Games' experience of competitors, spectators or the media."

http://66.218.69.11/search/cache?ei=UTF-8&p=+Interpol+chief+warns+of+virus+attack+at+sports+event&fr=yfp-t-501&u=story.australiaherald.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/c4cdc9be967f45f9/id/11596691/&w=interpol+chief+chiefs+warns+warning+virus+attack+attacks+sports+sporting+event+events&d=dTT2yLXiP7dW&icp=1&.intl=us

Absi is in Syria and Fatah al Isalm is in Gaza
Saturday, 8 December, 2007

Beirut - According to intelligence reports based on Al-Qaida website Fatah al Islam has relocated to Gaza in Palestine .

The same report also states that Shaker al -Absi, the fugitive leader of Fatah al Islam who has escaped from the Nahr- el Bared Palestinian refugee camp in north Lebanon, following the final assault by the Lebanese army is now in Syria with his wife.
Fatah al Islam fought the Lebanese army for 106 days . At the end of the battle the Lebanese army declared victory and Fatah al Islam militants were disbanded. Many of them are now in Lebanese jails but some were able to escape.

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2007/12/absi_is_in_syri.php

31 miscreants arrested, fugitive camp destroyed in Kohlu
Monday, December 10, 2007

QUETTA: Security forces arrested 31 miscreants from restive Balochistan districts in various operations against fugitives on Sunday, Online reported. According to a private television channel, the security forces destroyed a fugitive camp in the Kohlu area, and arrested 5 miscreants.

In another operation, two miscreants were arrested from the Sang Sila area. Heavy weapons were also seized from their possession. Sources said the two militants were allegedly involved in attacks on security forces, besides other terrorist activities.

BBC quoted locals as saying that the security forces arrested 124 people from various villages of Kohlu district late on Saturday, out of whom 100 were released early on Sunday.

Separately, the Frontier Corps (FC) seized a huge weapons cache. FC personnel signalled a motorcyclist near the Pakistan-Afghanistan boarder to stop, but he escaped after leaving the motorcycle. Six mortar shells, 6 fuses, 9 anti-personal mines, 2 Klashnikovs, 4 magazines and 84 rounds were seized from the motorcycle. Also, four security personnel were injured when their vehicle hit a landmine in the Toba Nohkani area near Dera Bugti district, police told APP.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007/12/10/story_10-12-2007_pg7_26

Egypt uncovers 500 kilograms of explosives in northern Sinai
Mon., December 10, 2007 Tevet 1, 5768

Egyptian security forces have found 500 kilograms of TNT explosives in the northern Sinai desert believed to be destined for the Gaza Strip, a security official said Monday.

"It is thought that Islamic militants buried the explosives, but no militants were in the vicinity when the police, acting on a tip-off, uncovered the cache," said the official, who spoke on the customary condition of anonymity. The explosives were found stashed in plastic bags and hidden in a warehouse near el-Rodha village, about 100 kilometers to the west of the Egypt-Gaza Strip border, the official said.

Egyptian investigators believe that Islamist militants were stashing the explosives, which they planned to smuggle into the Gaza Strip. There have been three major bomb attacks in Sinai since October. The blasts in the resorts of Sharm el-Sheik, Taba and Dahab killed 125 people. The Egyptian government blamed the attacks on a local Islamic militant group, which appears to have been inspired by Al-Qaida ideology.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/933073.html

London pair charged with inciting terror abroad
Mon Dec 10, 2007

LONDON - Police in London on Monday evening charged two men, described by a human rights activist as supporters of a separatist movement in south-western Pakistan, with inciting terrorism outside of Britain.

The pair, 25-year-old Faiz Baluch and 39-year-old Hyrbyair Marri, were accused of "jointly incited another person to commit an act of terrorism wholly or partly outside the UK which would, if committed in England and Wales, constitute murder." Marri was also charged with "possession (of) a weapon designed or adapted for the discharge of any noxious liquid, gas or other thing."

Excerpted

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071210/wl_uk_afp/britainattackspolicechargepakistan;_ylt=AlfaQxOAWLNl.LNulI_UbS90bBAF

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Algeria - Strong explosion near the Supreme Court of Algiers
AFP via translation | December 11, 2007
Posted on 12/11/2007 1:15:10 AM PST by HAL9000
via translation -

Strong explosion in the Supreme Court of Algiers

ALGIERS-A powerful explosion, the nature of which is not yet known, occurred Tuesday at 8:45 GMT in Algiers near the Supreme Court of Algeria, Ben Aknoun, on the heights above the town, noted journalists of AFP .

Many ambulances, sirens hurlantes, were directed at the scene of the explosion which was climbing a thick column of black smoke.

A security cordon was immediately deployed and the road leading to the area, including housing the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Council, has been closed to traffic.

http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=/ForeignBureaus/archive/200712/INT20071211a.html

“Killers Freed Early in Case That Exposed Iran’s Involvement in Int’l Terror”
By Patrick Goodenough
CNSNews.com International Editor
December 11, 2007

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “(CNSNews.com) - The German government has freed and deported two men serving life in prison for the 1992 killing of Kurdish dissidents in Berlin. Their release comes 10 years after a trial that sparked a diplomatic furor over claims that Iran’s top leadership was behind terrorism on European soil.

Iranian national Kazen Darabi and Lebanese co-conspirator Abbas Rhayel served just 15 years, including the time they spent in custody before their marathon trial ended in 1997.

Wire services quoted German officials Monday as confirming that they had been released and deported. Under German law, life sentences are reviewed after 15 years.”

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/019097.php
(REUTERS)

December 11, 2007

“Azerbaijan sentences 15 jihadists for coup attempt”
(REUTERS)

BAKU, Dec 10 (Reuters) -

“All denied the charge of attempting a coup d’etat, links to Iranian organisation Sepakh, and other crimes.”

Previously...

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/018605.php

October 29, 2007

“US embassy targeted by Azerbaijan Methodists — no, wait...
...it was “a radical Islamic group.” Oh, will the Islamophobia never end?

“US embassy targeted by Azerbaijan terror,” by Aida Sultanova for Associated Press:”

BAKU, Azerbaijan

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Beijing’s Attack on the U.K.
Finextra ^ | December 9, 2007 | David Strachan
Posted on 12/11/2007 12:18:22 AM PST by Bon mots

Recent revelations of China’s state-sponsored cyber attacks on U.K. financial institutions underscores that strategic financial power is high on Beijing’s list of priorities. Moreover, these attacks are consistent with “Unrestricted Warfare,” a white paper published in 1999 by two PLA Air Force colonels, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, in which they argue that future wars will be fought on many fronts, and that in fact economic and financial warfare will become an increasingly necessary and accepted form of conflict.

Whether Unrestricted Warfare represents today’s official view of China’s strategic outlook is unclear. What is clear, however, is that from a risk-reward perspective, Beijing must believe that, as a matter of national strategy, a policy of infiltrating foreign financial systems provides great enough rewards to offset the risk of significant political fallout. China’s zeal for financial power is clearly beyond the realm of licit transactions.

But what specifically are the Chinese after?

Proprietary technology? The need for cutting-edge financial infrastructure in China is great, but Beijing could quite easily purchase needed technologies (or the technology providers themselves) and forgo the considerable risks associated with cyber-espionage.

Data? Discounting a criminal motive, Beijing could be interested in gaining access to transaction or pricing data as a means to gain a competitive edge in the marketplace, particularly in the commodities arena. China’s explosive growth rate means that even a slight edge could save China billions in natural resources expenditures.

While theft of data or trade secrets could be the primary motive, Beijing is also testing information defenses and planting back doors - in short, developing a formidable information warfare capability. Beijing views the global capital markets as the naval philosophers of the early 20th century viewed the sea - that is, as the lifeblood of national prosperity, and therefore a medium for the projection of national power.

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Pakistan test-fires cruise missile
Reuters ^ | Dec 11, 2007 | Augustine Anthony
Posted on 12/11/2007 3:51:43 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Pakistan test-fires cruise missile

Tue Dec 11, 2007 4:32am EST

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan successfully tested a cruise missile with a range of 700 km (435 miles) on Tuesday, the military said.

The military did not say on Tuesday if the Hatf-VII (Babur) missile is nuclear-capable but it has previously identified it as such.

The test would consolidate Pakistan’s strategic capability and strengthen national security, the military said in a statement.

“The Babur, which has near stealth capabilities, is a low flying, terrain hugging missile with high maneuverability, pin-point accuracy and radar avoidance features,” it said.

Nuclear-armed Pakistan and India routinely carry out missile tests despite a peace process they launched in early 2004, and both have agreed to inform each other of such tests in advance.

The South Asian neighbors carried out tit-for-tat nuclear weapons tests in 1998.

President Pervez Musharraf and caretaker Prime Minister Mohammadmian Soomro congratulated the scientists and engineers on the test firing and “assured them of their complete support in the development plans of all strategic projects”.

The missile was first tested in 2005. Since, then its range has been enhanced to 700 km, from 500 km.

(Reporting by Augustine Anthony; Editing by Robert Birsel and Sanjeev Miglani)

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