Posted on 08/22/2006 5:55:48 AM PDT by teddyballgame
And just as I reported earlier today on the problems with the Gallup poll and other surveys showing a bias for Democrats, the Gallup poll suddenly reports a dramatic drop in the Democrat lead in the US House race to only two points.
In a poll taken over the weekend, the poll of registered voters shows that Democrats now lead only 47%-45% which is down from a nine percentage point lead earlier in August. This is well within the poll's margin of error (+-4%) so the race is essentially even. It is the best showing for Republicans in this poll since just before the 2004 November election when Democrats were ahead by four points among registered voters, but Republicans still won the popular U.S. vote and a 232-203 lead in House seats.
According to the poll, the sudden focus on the war on terror has greatly helped the GOP. The poll states that "President Bush's approval rating has topped 40% for the first time since February...Behind the movements: In the wake of the terror plot that British authorities say they broke up, Bush seems to have gotten a boost. Some of that may have reflected positively on Republican candidates as well.
(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...
1. Try and impeach Bush.
2. Pull out of Middle East (heck, we're still trying to clean up Carter's mess).
3. Bring back the fairness doctrine (shut down talk radio).
4. Try and get some kind of limit on political speech on the internet.
Now that is depressing. As of last week, I shifted my support from McBride to Admiral Collins. I figure if McBride got out and endorsed him and Collins picked up the bulk of the undecideds (there are a lot of FL Republicans who desperately want another option than you-know-who), he might actually take the nomination. I don't think he'd have the greatest shot at winning the general (I'd give him at least 45%, however, far above the 35% of the current leader), but it would at least spare us the embarrassment of KH's abomination of a candidacy and any ill-effects from it (harming Clay Shaw, whose House seat retention is of paramount importance).
I have trouble thinking of a RINO who lost in a discernably pro GOP open district in the general election, in the relatively recent past, but maybe there are some. Of course, this year might be different. But I don't think Kolbe's district is that conservative on social issues overall; in fact I tend to think it is fairly moderate.
On the list, the most surprising ones to me are: KY-04 (much more Dem than I think) and OH-01 (slightly more Dem than I think)
I also think that WY-AL should be in Toss-up/Lean Rep, but that is just based on hunches.
I assume that you noticed the SUSA poll today concerning WA-08. Seems to me to indicate a placement more in the realm of what Novak is suggesting.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d034d356-8299-4d08-9b88-5656013dfe35
That's quite a swing in the Garrett district (Bush only carried it by 7% in '00). Though both were at least trending more GOP. That's why I was saying that running a RINO (as the pundits were urging when Marge Roukema retired) is not necessarily the answer. Garrett proved quite able, and Graf might be just as capable (but he needs to drastically increase his fundraising -- if he still has the same amount of $$ he had nearly 2 months ago, he's won't even be competitive).
I'm sure I can think of a few seats, though I'm a bit tired and soon to head off to bed, but the Dennis Moore seat comes to mind (although that's not an open seat, of course). Another one, albeit not a GOP seat, but one that could prove competitive, Maine-2 in '02, when we put up a pro-abort RINO against a pro-life Dem (and lo and behold, the pro-life Dem won, despite claims by certain predictable groups that he was "out of touch"). Michaud might still have won against a Conservative GOPer, but we won't know for sure. Another one was Rick Lazio's NY-2nd district in 2000 when the GOP had the brilliant notion to run a very liberal Black lady for the seat, and she was obliterated in a 4-person contest.
There was a big swing in NJ to Bush 2004 versus Bush 2000. Bush ran below the partisan baseline in 2000 in NJ, way below, while AZ was more stable. In any event, Bush won the current AZ-8 by 2% in 2000, for what it is worth. So plus 8% in Garret's district and plus 4% in Kolbe's. Also I am sure AZ-8 has more Hispanics, although it does not include the Tuscon barrio, than Garret's district, and Bush ran very well with Hispanics in 2004, particularly in AZ (along with Texas), and almost certainly above partisan baseline.
"They" are the Evans-Novak Political Report.
I saw that Reichert poll and it goes much further than the CO-07 poll in making me think that the GOP is not in as great danger as widely thought. On another note altogether, it validates my downgrading that race (and PA-08) just yesterday.
These polls mean nothing unless our election system switches and we have nationwide elections instead of district by district elections. The Democrats could win more votes and end up with fewer seats. Heck they have polled more votes in the last three senate cycles and still have a ten vote defecit.
I think the GOP is gaining ground generically. The polls suggesting seem to match some of these individual races, but it may be regional (ie the GOP may still be in big trouble in the midwest and NE). In that regard, why did you downgrade the
Fitzgerald seat? That is PA-8 isn't it?
Well, in Graf's defense, he's not a neophyte. He has won election to the AZ House twice (and ended up as House Majority Whip just as quickly, not something to sneeze at), and despite being massively outspent, got 43% of the primary vote against Kolbe in '04. That's why I see him as similar to Scott Garrett. If he can be financially competitive with Giffords, I think he stands a good chance. As for Giffords, the worst thing that could happen if she wins the seat and the Dems capture Congress, that she will be toast in '08 -- against Graf.
KY-04 is one of the more perplexing districts in my view. You recall that I thought rather little of its competitiveness for a long time; then there was that SUSA poll that put Lucas 10 points ahead; then a flurry of reports about how the GOP had written it off; and then suddenly a SUSA poll with Davis in the lead..
The only thing I will go out on a limb and predict is that Lucas will do worse on Election Day than he will be predicted to do..
I'd like to know how he's communicating with Rowland Evans. Might be the only political pundit to utilize seances to divine the outcome of House & Senate races. ;-)
was there a new poll in PA-08?
LOL.
I never heard that the GOP at any point was preparing to write off KY-4, especially given how Republican it is. I certainly thought that reports of Davis's weakness against Lucas were ludicrously overstated. I remember how the pundits and polls claimed that then-freshman Congressman Ernie Fletcher in KY-6 would be toast against Scotty Baesler trying to reclaim his old House seat in 2000, and it ended up an embarrassing blowout, as Baesler only got 35% compared to the 56% he got in '96 when he beat Fletcher the first time. I'm not saying Lucas will perform as badly, but it would not surprise me. There just is no logical reason to dump Davis.
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