Posted on 08/22/2006 5:55:48 AM PDT by teddyballgame
They've certainly got a good record at predicting the primaries this year. The only one that I've seen them get wrong so far was the TN-01 primary where they predicted Venable over Davis, the actual winner by a few hundred votes.
Otherwise, this is also the first time for me that I've seen Novak's name attached to a race-by-race survey. His more general record is well-known, including his close-to-the-mark 1994 predictions.
I disagree with several of these predictions, but am most surprised with their calling Chabot's seat in Ohio a "Tossup/Leans Dem." Chabot was elected and reelected in a far more Democrat seat from 1994 to 2000, and his district is trending even more Republican. I think Pryce will lose before Chabot would, and I don't think Pryce wil llose.
I agree with you so far as Chabot - that's the one that most jumped out at me. I haven't really thought much about that one for a while, so I'll need to reevaluate what's going on in OH-01 to see what I think, and I haven't had a chance to do that yet.
I've seen no polling data on IN-9 (Sodrel vs. Hill), but in KY-4, Davis has already pulled ahead of Lucas, so I can't see how that is likely, let alone lean Dem. Until we know the finalists for AZ-8, it's hard to categorize it, yet. If it ends up Graf vs. Giffords, supposedly Giffords has baggage, and it may not be nearly as 'Rat leaning as claimed.
I'd actually move CO-7 to Lean Dem from Lean GOP, based on claims that the lead Dem Perlmutter may be the stronger candidate. The one that worries me is the peculiar case of Don Sherwood. He carries a heavy sleaze factor and could be one of the bigger under-the-radar upsets of the cycle. I've seen no polling data on that contest. I also agree that Chabot shouldn't be in Lean Dem, either. That district was drawn for him.
Chabot's opponent ran against him in a more Dem district in 2000, and Chabot won 53-45%. According to Open Secrets, Chabot leads John Cranley with cash-on-hand by nearly 2-to-1 ($1.4 mil to $775k). That's roughly the same percentage Chabot outspent Cranley by in '00. Personally, I don't think Cranley will get more than 45%, perhaps less.
It would be very odd for Chabot to lose now when he has survived much tougher situations in the past. Unless there's a personal scandal of which I am unaware, I would place this race as Likely GOP.
Uh-oh...this means another push for the right for felons to vote, a big voter registration drive for "immigrants" who unfortunately can't read or write, and more griping about touch-screen voting machines (dead people find that difficult).
The generic worry for OH is the bad state of the OH GOP, which could adversely effect our candidates. Whatever we lose there in November, most of the blame will likely be rightly laid at the feet of Boob Taft.
I think that the KY-04 should be "Toss-up/Leans GOP." If Lucas couldn't even take his lead into September, I don't think he will beat the incumbent Davis in November.
Barron Hill was way too liberal for the IN-09, and it finally caught up to him in 2004. The district continues to trend more conservative, so demographics are in Mike Sodrel's favor, and unless there are a couple of reputable polls out there showing Hill comfortably ahead I don't see how it can be called "Likely Dem."
The CO-07 has a very slight Dem lean to it, and Beauprez has not been polling well in the gubernatorial race, so I would call it a "Toss-up/Leans Dem," not "Toss-up/Leans GOP."
The AZ-08 was carried by President Bush 53%-46% in 2004. The district does not "lean Democrat" by any stretch. I have never understood why Democrats are so high on Giffords, nor why it is assumed that less conservative Republicans in the district will act like KA-03 RINOs and sabotage the GOP nominee if he is to the right of Kolbe. Conservatives in the district voted for Kolbe even after being disappointed by Graf's primary loss in 2004, and I expect that at least the 53% of district residents that voted for Bush will vote for the GOP nominee whether he is a conservative or a moderate.
Regarding AZ-8, I fully expect if Graf is the nominee, Kolbe will pull out all the stops to sabotage him and help the rodent. However, this might very well end up something similar to NJ-5, where Marge Roukema detested the man that would succeed her (and just like Scott Garrett, Randy Graf tried to take down Kolbe earlier), and she gave silent endorsement to the Socialist 'Rat trying to succeed her.
I'd add an alarm that Giffords has drastically more $$ (as of July) than Graf. According to Open Secrets, she has nearly $600k cash-on-hand. Graf had only a paltry $50k.
I doubt Chabot's district is trending more GOP. His slice of Butler has gained some population, and has trended a bit more GOP comparing the Bush stats from 2000 to 2004, but that is probably more than offset by the Dem trend in Hamilton, particularly Chabot's slice of Hamilton (which is most of Hamilton), which includes the inner city.
Who is "they?"
I don't. Graf is a controversial figure, and running against Kolbe in a primary leaves wounds, and he favors teaching creationism in schools. It would seem to me that Graf would suffer moderate GOP erosion.
Garret's district has a considerably more GOP lean than AZ-8, and he ran against a flawed Dem opponent.
KY-4 seems the most bizarre in its placement on the list, to me.
You can only pretend for short periods that the world is not dangerous.
Is it ? I thought both these seats were only a point or two difference in GOP performances (at least at the Presidential level). I don't have the '06 Almanac of American Politics to confirm that for '04, however, so I looked at the '00 statistics as applied to the '02 redistricted lines.
In any event, unless the seat had a more Dem lean to it, one might say that running a more liberal Republican would be prudent, but the district simply isn't. I tend to think pro-Republican districts that have RINOs such as Kolbe place us often at greater jeopardy for losing the seat, as many GOP Conservative base voters won't bother with them, and there's a lot more of those than RINO voters.
Bush carried Garret's district by 15%, and Kolbe's by 6%, in 2004.
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