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I think that the KY-04 should be "Toss-up/Leans GOP." If Lucas couldn't even take his lead into September, I don't think he will beat the incumbent Davis in November.

Barron Hill was way too liberal for the IN-09, and it finally caught up to him in 2004. The district continues to trend more conservative, so demographics are in Mike Sodrel's favor, and unless there are a couple of reputable polls out there showing Hill comfortably ahead I don't see how it can be called "Likely Dem."

The CO-07 has a very slight Dem lean to it, and Beauprez has not been polling well in the gubernatorial race, so I would call it a "Toss-up/Leans Dem," not "Toss-up/Leans GOP."

The AZ-08 was carried by President Bush 53%-46% in 2004. The district does not "lean Democrat" by any stretch. I have never understood why Democrats are so high on Giffords, nor why it is assumed that less conservative Republicans in the district will act like KA-03 RINOs and sabotage the GOP nominee if he is to the right of Kolbe. Conservatives in the district voted for Kolbe even after being disappointed by Graf's primary loss in 2004, and I expect that at least the 53% of district residents that voted for Bush will vote for the GOP nominee whether he is a conservative or a moderate.

Regarding AZ-8, I fully expect if Graf is the nominee, Kolbe will pull out all the stops to sabotage him and help the rodent. However, this might very well end up something similar to NJ-5, where Marge Roukema detested the man that would succeed her (and just like Scott Garrett, Randy Graf tried to take down Kolbe earlier), and she gave silent endorsement to the Socialist 'Rat trying to succeed her.

I expect that at least the 53% of district residents that voted for Bush will vote for the GOP nominee whether he is a conservative or a moderate.

I don't. Graf is a controversial figure, and running against Kolbe in a primary leaves wounds, and he favors teaching creationism in schools. It would seem to me that Graf would suffer moderate GOP erosion.

I didn't vote for Kolbe. I could never vote for that scoundrel. His voting record alone disqualifies him, never mind his lifestyle. He is a human rodent.

As for AZ-8, I live in it. It isn't conservative within the city of Tucson, which is a Bolshevik nest. But Cochise County and many of the outlying areas are Graf strongholds, or at least were. Graf forced Kolbe into mailing "Howdy Neighbor" mailings to every home in the district last time. These cheesy mailings showed Kolbe reading stories to kids on the porch. They should have taken pictures of him at one of his famous toga parties. I had a gay friend of mine go to one of them once.

Kolbe has been a rep here for almost a quarter century and Graf still got forty percent of the primary vote last time. He is not favored by the GOP establishment, because the border is his big issue. He might be another Tancredo if elected. This Giffords has bumper stickers on the back of every deranged driver I see, so she may be popular among the libs, who will try to nominate the biggest nut they can find. Make that second biggest because the biggest commie is already in the governor's office here. But right now, elections aren't even on people's minds, Labor Day is.