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To: AntiGuv; AuH2ORepublican

I've seen no polling data on IN-9 (Sodrel vs. Hill), but in KY-4, Davis has already pulled ahead of Lucas, so I can't see how that is likely, let alone lean Dem. Until we know the finalists for AZ-8, it's hard to categorize it, yet. If it ends up Graf vs. Giffords, supposedly Giffords has baggage, and it may not be nearly as 'Rat leaning as claimed.

I'd actually move CO-7 to Lean Dem from Lean GOP, based on claims that the lead Dem Perlmutter may be the stronger candidate. The one that worries me is the peculiar case of Don Sherwood. He carries a heavy sleaze factor and could be one of the bigger under-the-radar upsets of the cycle. I've seen no polling data on that contest. I also agree that Chabot shouldn't be in Lean Dem, either. That district was drawn for him.


164 posted on 08/24/2006 1:49:07 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; AntiGuv

I think that the KY-04 should be "Toss-up/Leans GOP." If Lucas couldn't even take his lead into September, I don't think he will beat the incumbent Davis in November.

Barron Hill was way too liberal for the IN-09, and it finally caught up to him in 2004. The district continues to trend more conservative, so demographics are in Mike Sodrel's favor, and unless there are a couple of reputable polls out there showing Hill comfortably ahead I don't see how it can be called "Likely Dem."

The CO-07 has a very slight Dem lean to it, and Beauprez has not been polling well in the gubernatorial race, so I would call it a "Toss-up/Leans Dem," not "Toss-up/Leans GOP."

The AZ-08 was carried by President Bush 53%-46% in 2004. The district does not "lean Democrat" by any stretch. I have never understood why Democrats are so high on Giffords, nor why it is assumed that less conservative Republicans in the district will act like KA-03 RINOs and sabotage the GOP nominee if he is to the right of Kolbe. Conservatives in the district voted for Kolbe even after being disappointed by Graf's primary loss in 2004, and I expect that at least the 53% of district residents that voted for Bush will vote for the GOP nominee whether he is a conservative or a moderate.


169 posted on 08/24/2006 2:10:23 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
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