Bush carried Garret's district by 15%, and Kolbe's by 6%, in 2004.
That's quite a swing in the Garrett district (Bush only carried it by 7% in '00). Though both were at least trending more GOP. That's why I was saying that running a RINO (as the pundits were urging when Marge Roukema retired) is not necessarily the answer. Garrett proved quite able, and Graf might be just as capable (but he needs to drastically increase his fundraising -- if he still has the same amount of $$ he had nearly 2 months ago, he's won't even be competitive).