That's quite a swing in the Garrett district (Bush only carried it by 7% in '00). Though both were at least trending more GOP. That's why I was saying that running a RINO (as the pundits were urging when Marge Roukema retired) is not necessarily the answer. Garrett proved quite able, and Graf might be just as capable (but he needs to drastically increase his fundraising -- if he still has the same amount of $$ he had nearly 2 months ago, he's won't even be competitive).
There was a big swing in NJ to Bush 2004 versus Bush 2000. Bush ran below the partisan baseline in 2000 in NJ, way below, while AZ was more stable. In any event, Bush won the current AZ-8 by 2% in 2000, for what it is worth. So plus 8% in Garret's district and plus 4% in Kolbe's. Also I am sure AZ-8 has more Hispanics, although it does not include the Tuscon barrio, than Garret's district, and Bush ran very well with Hispanics in 2004, particularly in AZ (along with Texas), and almost certainly above partisan baseline.